O's Week 1

The O's bashed their way thru Week 1 taking 2 of 3 from both the Yankees and the Rays to complete the opening homestand at 4-2. 

The O's hit .289 and scored 6.5 runs/game.  Kudos to hitting coach Terry Crowley for having the lumber ready for Opening Day.

O's pitching had a 5.67 ERA for the week.  The starting pitching performed surprisingly well, posting a 3.73 ERA.  The bullpen was alternately great and awful in posting an 8.34 ERA.  Danys Baez and Jamie Walker were untouched.  George Sherril, Dennis Sarfate, Matt Albers and Jim Johnson pitched so-so.  Chris Ray struggled and Brian Bass was outright awful.  

To the pitching staff's credit, only the Kansas City Royals issued fewer walks in Week 1 than O's pitching. 

It's off to Texas and then Boston in Week 2.  Hopefully, the bullpen rounds into form and it remains too early for hitters to expose the O's starting pitching weakness.  That and continued hot bats will make for another fun week to be an O's fan. 

Top spot

Detroit is alone in first place in the AL Central. The last time the Tigers were in first place was August 16, 2007.

Big W

Brandon Inge started Detroit's rally with a homer and capped it with a two-run single as the Tigers scored 6 times in the 8th inning of a 6-4 victory over Texas. Brandon Lyon tossed two perfect innings and Fernando Rodney got another save. The Tigs' bullpen has not allowed a baserunner in its last 7 innings of work.

It is way too early to get too excited, but Inge's new stance/approach at the plate, which produced five homers in the exhibition season, seems to be helping. Plus, he's got five walks and only two strikeouts. He's batting .304/.448/.870 after one week. He's scored seven runs and driven in seven runs. As great as his slugging is, he still trails Miguel Cabrera (.960).

Detroit is 4-3 this year, compared to 0-7 last season. Now, the White Sox come to town. The Tigs were 6-12 vs. Chicago last year. You have to go back to 2004 to find a year in which the Tigs won the season series (11-8). Since then, Detroit is 25-49 vs. CHW. I would think winning a series from their nemesis could be helpful.

Extra, extra

Since the start of the 2007 season, Curtis Granderson has collected more extra-base hits than all but one player in the American League. Granderson entered today with 65 doubles, 36 triples and 47 HR during that span.

The only player to exceed Granderson's 148 extras is Alex Rodriguez (with 153).

Nearly perfect

Aside from errors by Brandon Inge and Adam Everett -- who were supposed to improve the Tigers' defense -- Detroit got just about everything it wanted today in a 4-3 win over Texas. Justin Verlander gave up only 2 hits over five innings and the bullpen fired four innings of hitless relief. Nate Robertson got the victory while Fernando Rodney struck out the side in the ninth for the save. Everett atoned for his miscue with a two-run single and later scored the winning run.

The Tigs are 3-3 this year and improved to 10-3 against the Rangers dating back to September 2007.

Potenially good news: Joel Zumaya is going to start his rehab assignment.

Tick tock

All five of Detroit's games this season have been completed in less than 3 hours. Prior to today's 2:56 affair, the previous four all clocked in at less than 2:45.

Let's keep the Rangers in town

When people talked about Detroit scoring 1,000 runs in 2008 and winning the World Series, they obviously were under the mistaken impression the Tigers played only Texas. Last year, the kitties scored double digits against the Rangers in 4 of 9 meetings (and in three other games scored eight runs in each!). Detroit averaged better than 9 runs per game against Texas, which would have led to more than 1,500 runs over a 162-game schedule.

Today, Detroit beat the Rangers 15-2. Miguel Cabrera hit a grand slam and drove in 6. Armando Galarraga pitched 7 strong innings. It was a tough return to the bigs for Texas pitcher Kris Benson, who allowed 10 hits and eight runs in 5.

So the Tigers are 2-3, which is a much better start than the 0-7 a year ago. Still, they probably should be 3-2 and the pitching looks like it could be an adventure all season. I think I read somewhere that teams should win 60-65% of the games in which they score 5 runs (and the percentage increases with each additional run). Right now, the Tigers are 1-1 when scoring 5 runs and 2-1 when scoring 5 or more. We'll see how that plays out.

Nick Adenhart

I didn't know much about Nick Adenhart prior to the past several days. I watched some of the game he pitched Wednesday night and was stunned and saddened to hear of his death, which was made even more senseless by the circumstances.

The San Francisco treat

Giants pitcher Tim Lincecum lasted only 3 innings last night against Milwaukee, giving up 4 hits and 3 runs. The performance matched the shortest of his career and provided this great dialogue (from MLB.com):

Lincecum proved to be unintentionally amusing as he expressed his intent to maintain perspective.

"I'll try to take it with a grain of rice and move on," he said.

Rice?

"Rice, salt, whatever. I'm half-Asian," Lincecum said.

Lincecum's outing matched Sandy Koufax, in 1966, for the briefest by a reigning Cy Young Award winner.

Clunk

On one hand, I don't worry about the Tigers losing their opener. They were facing Roy Halladay on the road, so you would figure on a loss. The way it went down, however, was like 2008 never ended. Justin Verlander was rocked for 8 earned runs, matching his career worst. I don't think there were many cheap hits, either. The trouble all started with a two-out walk in the first; several minutes later, it was 4-0 Jays.

Detroit did rally a bit, getting within 9-5, and Curtis Granderson and Brandon Inge hit homers, but it was tough. The Tigers made two errors, including one by sure-handed (or formerly sure-handed?) Adam Everett.

Edwin Jackson will try to turn it around tonight against David Purcey.

2009 Mets Preview: The Pitchers

The 2008 Mets' pitching and defense weren't as superlative as the offense, but they still bested the league average by allowing 4.41 runs per game (the average was 4.63). The team's 103 ERA+ ranked sixth in the league. This year's starting staff is basically the same as the group that did a solid job last year, aside from perhaps some improvement in the fifth starter role. The bullpen, however, has been almost completely remodeled and this could be the piece that puts the Mets over the top in the NL East.

Johan Santana
2008: 16-7, 2.54 ERA, 234.1 IP, 206 K, 63 BB

A starting pitcher can't do much more than lead the league in both ERA and innings pitched as Santana did in 2008. A bullpen that coughed up seven leads after he left probably cost him the Cy Young Award, but he was at least one of the three best pitchers in the league. The fact that he did all this while posting the lowest strikeout rate of his career is a bit puzzling and troubling and I don't really expect him to post another ERA under three, but I have little doubt that he'll fill the role of ace admirably once again.

Mike Pelfrey
2008: 13-11, 3.72 ERA, 200.2 IP, 110 K, 64 BB

Pelfrey is another starter whose record doesn't reflect how valuable he was in 2008. It was a breakthrough year for the former first round pick. His strikeout totals don't look too impressive but he and his sinker do a great job keeping the ball in the park as he allowed just twelve home runs all year. He may never match Santana's low ERA, but the twenty-five year old Pelfrey could be very valuable for years to come if he repeats last season's quality and durability.

John Maine
2008: 10-8, 4.18 ERA, 140 IP, 122 K, 67 BB

Maine lost significant time in 2008 to a bone spur in his right shoulder, but surgery has apparently taken care of the problem. He has yet to give the Mets a full, healthy season, which has contributed some to the team's September troubles. But when he does take the mound in good health he is a solid mid-rotation starter. He will only turn twenty-eight this year and doesn't have a lot of wear and tear on his arm, having pitched his first full major league season in 2007. There is certainly a chance that he will put it all together for 200 innings and if he does that, the Mets' could have a rather formidable rotation.

Oliver Perez
2008: 10-7, 4.22 ERA, 194 IP, 180 K, 105 BB

I could probably just fill this space with a picture of myself shrugging my shoulders and looking confused. I like Oliver Perez and am glad he's back, but he can be quite maddening at times. At the very least I am pretty confident he'll pitch a good number of innings and strike out a bunch of people. Beyond that, who knows? Last year he led the majors in walks and he has been pretty awful in both the World Baseball Classic and Spring Training. On the other hand, he pitched better under pitching coach Dan Warthen last year than he had under Rick Peterson in the first half. In 2009 he will probably be the Met most likely to walk seven batters in an inning but also among the top two most likely to throw a no-hitter.

Livan Hernandez
2008 with the Twins and Rockies: 13-11, 6.05 ERA, 180 IP, 67 K, 43 BB

Well, one thing the Mets didn't have last year was a fifth starter who could reliably go out and pitch for six or seven innings without getting completely annihilated. So now they have that. Hernandez will do what he does, eat up a lot of innings while giving his team the chance to win 7-5. Hopefully Jonathan Niese will get on a roll at AAA at some point and save us from this.

That brings us to the bullpen. The only relievers who played a significant role in 2008 and are returning in 2009 are Pedro Feliciano and Brian Stokes. Feliciano somehow lost the ability to retire right-handed hitters in 2008, but he still did a good job against lefties and will likely do the same this year. Stokes had a solid year and should be okay in low leverage situations this year.

Bobby Parnell pitched a few innings in the majors last year but should have a bigger role this year. I was never too impressed with his numbers as a starter in the minors, but as a hard-throwing reliever, he may find his niche. Darren O'Day and Sean Green are a couple of newly acquired righties who should look pretty good by virtue of not being Aaron Heilman or Scott Schoeneweis.

And then there's the big two. JJ Putz and Francisco Rodriguez could give the Mets the best eighth and ninth inning combination in the league. The only question, aside from how to split up the proceeds from 70s buddy cop movie-themed "K-Rod and Putz" merchandise, is Putz's health. If he is recovered from the elbow troubles that bothered him last season, he could be the best reliever in the Mets' 'pen. Rodriguez won't save 62 games for the Mets, but he should give them the most reliable closer they've had in years.

All of this adds up to a team that should once again be very competitive in the National League East. The Phillies and Braves both have good teams, so I don't expect the Mets to have an easy road to the playoffs, but I feel good about this team. Last year, my official prediction was 95 wins. The Mets fell six short. But I am undeterred.

Offical prediction: 93 wins

Batters up - outfield edition

Hey, welcome back Joe!

Now, let's take a look at the Tigers' outfield.

LF - Carlos Guillen: Batted .286/.376/.436 in 489 PAs last year. Interestingly, the AL averages for third basemen (where Guillen saw most of his time last season) and left fielders is identical. Guillen's BA and OBP exceed the averages substantially while the slugging is modestly better, too. Hopefully, playing LF will help Guillen's back woes. And, hopefully, he can play the position without incident.

CF - Curtis Granderson: Batted .280/.365/.494 in 629 PAs last season. Scored 112 R in 141 games. Led the AL in triples for the second consecutive year. Walked 19 times more than in 2007 and struck out 30 times less. Keep in mind, he led the AL in whiffs in 2006, so he's made great strides. He could move into elite status this season.

RF - Magglio Ordonez: Batted .317/.376/.494 in 623 PAs last year. He is to the outfield what Placido Polanco is to the infield when it comes to consistency. The dude is a .312 lifetime hitter. Throw out his first full season in 1998 and two seasons that saw his playing time limited because of injuries, and Maggs has driven in 100+ runs in 7 of the remaining 8 seasons (and he had 99 RBI in the other!). Age will become a concern, like Polly, but there's no reason to believe he will not produce at his usual level. If the Tigs fall out of the race, he most likely will end the season with a contender.

DH - Marcus Thames: Batted .241/.292/.516 in 342 PAs last year. Marcus Markley Thames should exceed 400 PAs for the first time in his career now that Gary Sheffield is in Flushing. Thames doesn't walk or get on base with frequency. He hits homers. He could top 40 this season.

Bench - Josh Anderson: Batted .294/.338/.426 in 146 PAs for the Braves last season. He stole 10 bases in 11 attempts. I don't know much about him, but Baseball Prospectus says he's a fifth outfielder. So, as long as none of the regulars is injured, it seems Anderson is well cast.

2009 Mets Preview: The Hitters

Throughout the offseason a number of people have talked about the Mets' need to add a bat. But really, the fact that they scored five runs in the last three games of the season doesn't change the fact that the Mets had a great offense last year. The 2008 Mets tied for second in the National League in runs scored with 799, 4.93 per game, and ranked third in the league with an OPS+ of 100. And everyone who was any good last year is back this year. True, Luis Castillo and Brian Schneider are also back. But most of the important offensive players are young enough to be counted on to keep up their recent production. I certainly wouldn't have minded if the Mets had added a second baseman who can hit the ball more than 150 feet through the air, but this is not enough to doom the bats to mediocrity.

Catcher
2008 NL average: .255/.328/.387
2008 Mets average: .249/324/.378

The 2009 Mets have the same crew of backstops as the 2008 team: one guy who can't hit and one guy who can't stay healthy. And even that was good enough to be about league average last year. Brian Schneider hit a little better than he had the previous couple of years while Ramon Castro saw his slugging percentage drop more than 100 points from his big 2007. Now, I wouldn't be shocked if Schneider slugged .300 or Castro came down with Ebola virus, but I think the more likely result is another adequate season from this position. Given the rarity of guys who could theoretically hit a home run on the Met bench, I would also like to see Jerry Manuel use Castro as a pinch hitter late in games once in a while, but I won't get my hopes up.

First Base
2008 NL: .277/.359/.479
2008 Mets: .271/.348/.497

Carlos Delgado is one of the big questions of 2009 given his age and the ridiculousness of his 2008 second half. But as you can see from the overall averages, first base was not a huge plus for the Mets in 2008, due in large part to Delgado's awful start. A thirty-seven year old Delgado may not be able to slug .606 like he did in the second half of last year, but he was so good in that second half that he can fall off somewhat and still be a very useful hitter. I would bet on him getting the 31 home runs he needs to reach 500 and if he does that, I think the Mets will have done well at this position.

Second Base
2008 NL: .271/.338/.408
2008 Mets: .258/.339/.338

So, even in his apparent postmortem state, Luis Castillo can draw a walk or two. You'd think that at some point pitchers would realize that Castillo hitting the ball is not a bad outcome for them and just throw it down the middle, but apparently they haven't yet. Of course, none of this matters because according to the talk out of Spring Training, Castillo is in The Best Shape Of His Life. I mean, I don't know how Met fans can hear that and still be worried. The fact that the Mets didn't bother to sign a decent backup at this position further supports the conclusion that Castillo is gonig to have a big year. Everyone should just calm down.

Third Base
2008 NL: .265/.335/.441
2008 Mets: .302/.390/.531

David Wright is only twenty-six! The only question is whether this will be the year he gets that elusive MVP award.

Shortstop
2008 NL: .276/.334/.404
2008 Mets: .292/.353/.466

Jose Reyes is only twenty-five! Okay, it would be nice if Reyes could keep up his tremendous production all the way through September at some point and finding a backup better than Alex Cora to give him a rest every once in a while might help with that. But really, with a left side of the infield like this, it's easy to understand why the Mets would want to just sit back and watch.

Left Field
2008 NL: .271/.350/.453
2008 Mets: .273/.334/.396

This is a position where the Mets are taking a pretty big chance in 2009. But, as you can see from last year's stats, there's not much place to go but up. Daniel Murphy's stats prior to last season do not look like those a future major league left fielder, but he hit over .300 with a good number of walks in both Binghamton and New York last year. It's reasonable to be wary that this might be a fluke, but watching Murphy last year and seeing his approach, which had him seeing 4.25 pitches per plate appearance, has me pretty optimistic. I don't expect he'll hit for a lot of power like a prototypical left fielder and his defense is still a work in progress, but I think he can put up a high on base percentage with enough doubles to keep the slugging respectable. At the start of Spring Training there was talk of platooning Murphy, but at this point Jerry Manuel seems to have fallen hard for the kid. Seriously, I think I saw him writing "Jerry Murphy" over and over in the margins of his notebook during a recent press conference.

Center Field
2008 NL: .267/.334/.426
2008 Mets: .283/.373/.486

Carlos Beltran: great center fielder or the greatest center fielder? No one in the NL is in either his league or the same ballpark. All signs point to him having another great all around offensive year and winning another Gold Glove (the deserved kind, not the Nate McLouth kind). Anyone who is unsatisfied with what the Mets are getting for their $119 million is not paying attention.

Right Field
2008 NL: .271/.344/.444
2008 Mets: .283/.347/.423

If Ryan Church could hit for a full season like he did for the first two months of last season, the Mets would really have something. But that's unrealistic. After his concussion problems last year and the way he failed to hit in the second half, it's hard to expect much from him. I do think he'll at least play good defense for as long as he's in the lineup. But with Fernando Tatis and now Gary Sheffield on the roster, the Mets have a few chances to get more offense out of this position than they did last year.

If Church does stay healthy and productive, the Mets might have the best bench they've had in a few years, at least offensively. Tatis's .267/.369/.484 line last year was pretty surprising, but he's only thirty-four. If he can get regular work backing up all four corners, he could be a big contributor again. Sheffield may not have much left, but for the league minimum, I am glad Omar Minaya gave him a shot to try to prove otherwise. Those two along with Castro could give the Mets solid power off the bench. Jeremy Reed should provide a little outfield defense once in a while. And Alex Cora can probably stand at second base or shortstop occasionally without too much trouble.

Altogether, this looks like one of the top few offenses in the league to me. There's no way to know how Citi Field will play, but if it's no more offense-dampening than Shea, I think this team should score in the neighborhood of eight hundred runs again. If they can save about fifteen of those for the final weekend, all the better.

Batters up - infield edition

C - Gerald Laird: Batted .276/.329/.398 in 381 PAs last year for Texas. He should be adequate for Detroit, at a position where adequate makes one almost super. Matt Treanor is the backup.

1B - Miguel Cabrera: Batted .292/.349/.537 in 684 PAs. He led the AL with 37 HR and drove in 127. There are indications 2009 could be better. Miggy was .284/.349/.489 during the first half of last season as he learned a new league. He was .302/.350/.601 the second half. He should be enjoying life in the cleanup spot, where he flourished at the end of last year. Jeff Larish is the backup at just about ever corner. He should be able to provide some pop from the left side.

2B - Placido Polanco: Batted .307/.350/.417 in 629 PAs. He is as steady as they come, although his age is starting to become a concern. Solid with the glove. Gives production well above his $4.6 million salary. Ramon Santiago is the backup. Santiago put up an OPS of .870 last season in 156 PAs. Can't expect a repeat; his 4 HR nearly equaled his total (6) for the previous six years.

SS - Adam Everett: Batted ... oh, who cares? Everett hasn't posted an OPS+ above 80 since ... ever. He was brought to Detroit for one reason, to flash the leather. As long as he stays healthy and can make the plays in the field, the Tigers (especially the pitchers) will be happy.

3B - Brandon Inge: Batted ... oh, who cares? Inge was returned to third for one reason, to flash the leather. He actually had a productive spring at the plate. With the whole fuss over his position in the past, he might have a decent year with the bat. If he can simply get his OPS back to the .750 to .775 range (from the .675 neighborhood), he would be a tremendous asset.

Hit the ground running

Last year, Detroit started the season 0-7. With that memory fresh, many are talking about how important it is for the Tigers to start quickly this year. I agree. And here is another reason: The Tigers open the campaign with 10 games in 10 days. In 2008, Detroit had two days off before even reaching game No. 8.

Fortunately, six of the 10 games are at home. Detroit opens Monday in Toronto (Justin Verlander vs. Roy Halladay) and then hosts Texas and the White Sox. Then the Tigs get a travel day to head to Seattle, followed by LA and KC. At least they get a day off between Seattle and LA. But it is clear, particularly with the uncertainty around this squad, that Detroit needs to be ready to spring from the gate.

Tigers' roster

Courtesy the Free Press:

Starting pitchers: R Armando Galarraga, R Edwin Jackson, R Zach Miner, R Rick Porcello, R Justin Verlander.

Relief pitchers: R Eddie Bonine, R Brandon Lyon, R Ryan Perry, R Juan Rincon, L Nate Robertson, R Fernando Rodney, L Bobby Seay.

Catchers: Gerald Laird, Matt Treanor.

Infielders: 1B Miguel Cabrera, 2B Placido Polanco, 3B Brandon Inge, SS Adam Everett, 1B/3B Jeff Larish, SS/2B Ramon Santiago.

Outfielders: LF Carlos Guillen, CF Curtis Granderson, RF Magglio Ordoñez, DH/LF Marcus Thames, OF Josh Anderson.

We'll look at the team in more detail the next few days, but a bench of Treanor, Larish, Santiago and Anderson indicates the Tigers' regulars better stay healthy.

Nate the Grate

Nate Robertson is unhappy being moved to the bullpen. He did not demand a trade, but said his time in Detroit might be nearing an end. Given that he's owed $17 million through 2010, it's unlikely anyone will take Robertson off the Tigers' hands.

While I appreciate what Robertson has done for the Tigs in the past, and admire that he still wants the ball, sometimes you wonder what guys like this are thinking. Robertson posted a 5.52 ERA and allowed 25 baserunners in 14.2 IP this spring. He was 7-11 with a 6.35 ERA last year. Only once in his career (2006) has his ERA+ been better than average. His hits allowed and walks have increased since 2006 and his strikeouts have dropped slightly.

In fairness to Robertson, Zach Miner, who got the final starting spot, fared no better overall this spring. But Miner was 8-5 with a 4.27 ERA last season, including 5-2/4.30 as a starter.

Maybe Robertson can work his way back into the rotation. But at this point, he needs to earn it, which is something he doesn't seem to understand. If Robertson simply accepted the demotion and recognized he was largely to blame, this would sit better with me.

The devil you know

It's not often a manager names an Opening Day closer, but that's what Jim Leyland did today when he said Fernando Rodney has the job. Rodney, however, was not named the team's full-time closer. It seems Brandon Lyon, Ryan Perry, and Joel Zumaya could all see time in the role. I figured Rodney would have the inside track, primarily because the Tigers are familiar with him. I can't say I have a better idea at this point.

It was 24 years ago

George Plimpton gave us "The Curious Case of Sidd Finch."

The kids are alright

Rick Porcello and Ryan Perry both have made the Tigers' roster. This is not much of a surprise given the fact Jeremy Bonderman and Dontrelle Willis are on the DL and no one else pitched all that well to push Porcello out of the mix (and he certainly pitched better than his competition). And with Brandon Lyon and Fernando Rodney failing to grab the closer's job, and Joel Zumaya on the DL, there was ample reason to keep Perry as well.

Sweepstakes Over?

Although not officially stated by Manager Dave Trembley, all indications are that the O's rotation is set to go with Jeremy Guthrie, Koji Uehara, Adam Eaton, Alfredo Simon and Mark Hendrickson.

This is not official either, but this rotation will almost certainly be awful.  Nevertheless, there is a reasonable possibility that it will be better than the 2008 version (which was officially awful) of Jeremy Guthrie, Daniel Cabrera, Adam Loewen, Brian Burress and Steve Trachsel.

Jeremy Guthrie (10-12, 3.63 era in '08) is at the top of both rotations.  Despite a horrible spring, I remain hopeful that he'll be as effective as he was in 2008.   I'd like to see Trembley juggle the rotation such that Guthrie faces more 3 & 4 opposing pitchers and fewer 1's and 2's.  Guthrie is a legitimate ML starter, but not a legitimate #1 starter.  Whaddya say, Skip?  Back him up a day here and there because of a "twinge" in his elbow.

Koji Uehara (6-5, 3.81 era in Japan in '08) is slated for the #2 spot.  He's 102-55 with a 2.91 era in his career in Japan.  He had a good enough spring to expect that he'll be an improvement over Daniel Cabrera (8-10, 5.25 era in '08).

Adam Eaton (4-8, 5.80 era in '08) might reasonably be expected to perform no worse than the '08 #3 slot in the rotation of Adam Loewen (0-2, 8.02 era) and his replacement - Garrett Olsen (9-10, 6.65 era).  If Eaton regains his top form, he could even improve on those numbers.

Alfredo Simon was 5-10, 6.43 era in '07 in AAA with Texas.  He only pitched 17 2/3 innings in 2008.  The 2008 #4 slot - Brian Burress - was 7-10 with a 6.04 era.  Simon has pitched "lights out" this spring, allowing 2 Runs in 16 innings.  I have no idea how he did this, but it's won him a spot in the rotation and we'll get to see if can really pitch in the AL.

Mark Hendrickson (7-8, 5.45 era in '08) my have the most difficult challenge when it comes to improving the #5 slot in the rotation.  Steve Trachsel (2-5, 8.39 era), Rhadames Liz (6-6, 6.72 era) and Chris Waters (3-5, 5.01) combined for 11 wins from the #5 slot in 2008 despite giving up boatloads of runs.  I doubt that any O's starter will have 11 wins in 2009.

The strength of the '09 Orioles (if they have one) will be the bullpen and offense.  If the O's bash (which they might) and the starters can go deep enough, regularly enough to keep the bullpen healthy and in their roles, the O's may just improve on their 68 wins in 2008.

Sheffling off

Detroit released Gary Sheffield today, eating $14 million in the process. Sheffield leaves the Tigers with 499 career homers. If he clears waivers, he can be signed for the major league minimum. It'll be interesting to see if anyone takes a chance. Sheff was batting .178/.387/.378 in 45 spring ABs and was coming off an injury plagued 2008.

This most likely means Marcus Thames will not be traded and will see the majority of the DH at-bats this year. Thames was struggling this spring, too, but maybe because of the trade rumors. The dude has homered every 13.5 AB over the past 3 seasons, which translates to 44 taters in 600 AB. He will not help with OBP.

Trade

The Tigers failed to improve their pitching situation, but probably improved their bench today by sending minor league reliever Rudy Darrow to the Braves for OF Josh Anderson. Could this be the precursor to another deal?

Although it didn't help the pitching, the trade does give Detroit a viable backup in the outfield and a dimension of speed. Anderson batted .294/.338/.426 with 21 runs and 10 SB (in 11 attempts) last season in 136 AB for Atlanta.

It would not be a surprise to see Anderson take over for Carlos Guillen in late-inning situations, much like the Phillies pulled Pat Burrell from games. Given Guillen's aches and pains, this could be a good thing.

Recommended reading

The other night, I pulled out an anthology of great sports writing and read John Updike's "Hub Fans Bid Kid Adieu." If you want, you can read it here. I believe it to be brilliant. Here is a sample:

Like a feather caught in a vortex, Williams ran around the square of bases at the center of our beseeching screaming. He ran as he always ran out home runs — hurriedly, unsmiling, head down, as if our praise were a storm of rain to get out of. He didn’t tip his cap. Though we thumped, wept, and chanted “We want Ted” for minutes after he hid in the dugout, he did not come back. Our noise for some seconds passed beyond excitement into a kind of immense open anguish, a wailing, a cry to be saved. But immortality is nontransferable. The papers said that the other players, and even the umpires on the field, begged him to come out and acknowledge us in some way, but he never had and did not now. Gods do not answer letters.

Arms for the poor

Detroit's pitching situation has failed to resolve itself heading into the final week of spring training. This is very disappointing. In fact, there might be more questions now than several weeks ago. The Free Press reports the Tigs tried to work a trade with the Mets for Brian Stokes, but the talks fell through. It seems likely either Ryan Raburn or Marcus Thames will be traded for pitching help. Otherwise, we know Jeremy Bonderman won't be ready for Opening Day, Dontrelle Willis won't be available for a while, and neither Fernando Rodney nor Brandon Lyon has stepped up to claim the closer's job. So, with a week to go, Detroit has yet to adequately fill two-fifths of the rotation and find its ninth-inning man. Sigh.

D-railed again

The Tigers put Dontrelle Willis on the DL with anxiety disorder. A Free Press story says Royals pitcher Zack Greinke missed most of 2006 because of a similar condition. Last year, Greinke had 13 wins, a 3.47 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP and 183 Ks for KC. At this point, no one is certain about Willis' future, although the Tigs hope he can return to the majors this season.

Name game

I'm looking forward to a Henry Henry vs. Jose Jose clash.

Get smart

Jim Leyland summed up the Tigers pitching situation thusly: "Currently, there's a lot of chaos going on."

OK, so it's not KAOS, but we don't have an agent like 99 to bail us out, either. I see Vegas has put the over/under on Detroit's wins at 81.5. Baseball Prospectus projected 78.

Instinctively, I keep thinking the Tigers have to be better than .500 with the talent they have. Of course, that wasn't the case last year and the pitching trends coupled with an aging lineup leave little margin for error again in 2009.

Spring Hope

This is not exactly what I was hoping for.

Five Alive

Spencer Fordin reports that the Orioles starting rotation sweepstakes has been whittled down to 5 candidates for the last 3 spots.

In addition to Jeremy Guthrie and Koji Uehara, 3 of Adam Eaton, Mark Hendrickson, Alfredo Simon, Brian Bass and Hayden Penn are expected to be in the rotation on Opening Day.

Adam Eaton easily brings the best resume to this party - 68-63 with a 4.80 ERA in Major League competition.  He's been shaky the last 3 seasons and this spring as well.

Mark Hendrickson - 50-63, 5.07 ERA - is next best.  He is clearly best suited for a long relief role, but has starting experience and may be required to fill a slot in the rotation.  His spring thus far looks like his career.

Alfredo Simon - 23-40, 5.04 ERA in Minor League competition - is having the best spring of the lot of them.   Based on performance in spring training, he's in.  Based on his minor league numbers (ok in A ball, lit up in AA and AAA), he just isn't good enough.  

Brian Bass - 46-49, 4.18 ERA in Minors,  4-4, 4.84 ERA Majors - is having a solid spring.  Came up through KC's minors, then spent ~two years in the Twins farm system.  Spent part of last year in the Twins bullpen (3-4, 4.87 ERA) before finishing out with the O's (1-0, 4.71 ERA).

Hayden Penn - 32-28, 3.87 ERA in Minors, 3-6, 9.31 ERA in Majors - is taking what is probably his last shot at the Majors with the O's.  His spring has been so-so.  The O's are out of options on him.  I suspect that, while he's not been great, he's been good enough that he probably won't clear waivers if he doesn't make the team.

I expect that Bass is in.  Eaton and Penn need a good outing to nail down slots leaving Hendrickson to the bullpen and Simon to the minors.   Rich Hill is expected to start the season on the DL and in extended spring training.  Hopefully, he can regain form and show up in mid-April to May to take a turn in the rotation from whomever is flailing.

Things you don't want to see even in spring training

Your potential closer giving up 4 HRs in a row.

But it happened today. Detroit's Brandon Lyon gave up consecutive taters to Boston's Mike Lowell, Jason Bay, Chris Carter and Ivan Ochoa.

Fernando Rodney, the Tigs' other potential closer, only gave up 3 runs on 3 hits in 1 inning against the Red Sox. But he did take the loss.

March madness

Dontrelle Willis allowed 7 hits and 2 walks, leading to 5 runs (4 earned) in 2.2 innings yesterday. Word on Tigers.com is Willis returned to his old delivery in his final inning and that maybe something positive will come from it. Hard to imagine Dontrelle getting it back together at this point.

Meanwhile, Jeremy Bonderman got good reviews for 2 shutout innings. And today, Nate Robertson tossed 4 innings of shutout ball, whiffing 5 while allowing only 2 hits and 1 walk. Robertson fired 3 innings of 1-hit ball last Saturday. Plus, Justin Verlander threw 6 sharp innings his most recent time to the mound. Maybe things are turning around for the starters?

A few weeks ago, we noted a story about Brandon Inge's new approach at the plate. Here is an update on Inge's efforts this spring: .294/.400/.559 in 34 ABs.

New catcher Gerald Laird is batting .360/.407/.640 in 25 ABs.

Swinging a mean shillelagh

It's been a long time since we've heard from Joe. We were started to get worried until this photo surfaced, revealing his whereabouts and activities. Glad to see Joe knows how a leprechaun (like a ballplayer) should wear his socks. This photo was taken just after Joe finished taking BP against Johan Santana. Following the encounter, Santana declared himself ready to start on Opening Day.

Wild and crazy guys

Justin Verlander gave up three hits and four walks in a 50-pitch, two-inning outing on Wednesday. He said he pitched better than his stats. This is at least the second time (Dontrelle Willis) that a Tigers starter has uttered such a phrase. It is a relief because the stats are no good.

Entering today, Verlander's ERA was 5.79, which was edged by Edwin Jackson's 5.40 for best among Detroit's starters (not counting Armando Galarraga, who is on WBC tour). Sure, the numbers are based on a small sample and Verlander was working on new mechanics, but I'm getting a little worried.

Remarkably, the team's ERA is 4.28 despite giving up 54 walks (worst behind only Texas' 57). That's because the Tigers have 15 pitchers with ERAs of 3.00 or lower. Of that group, 10 have yet to allow an earned run. I guess that bodes well for the bullpen.

The pitching has kept my focus from the offense, which is putting up a .228/.316/.396 line this spring. Now, this really is unfair because Curtis Granderson, Magglio Ordonez, Miguel Cabrera and Carlos Guillen all are in the WBC. But it might not speak well of Detroit's depth. At least management is getting longer looks at younger players.

'Fragile' is not Italian

Kyle Kendrick is pitching like a Tiger. That's not a compliment. I mean he is doing as well with his chance to claim the No. 5 spot in the Phillies rotation as Dontrelle Willis, Nate Robertson and Zach Miner are doing with Detroit. And by "well," I mean "awful." Kendrick, according to pitching coach Rich Dubee, looked "a little fragile at times" during spring training. Today, he was broken. He gave up 10 hits and was charged with 8 runs (all earned) in three-plus innings against the Braves. Last week, Kendrick gave up four runs in 2.1 innings against Team USA. He is now appearing in the role of Adam Eaton. Next stop -- Baltimore.

Dutch masters

Last night's game between the Dominican Republic and The Netherlands in the World Baseball Classic was terrific. Even though I'm not a big fan of the WBC, I watched the game from the fourth inning to its conclusion. Eugene Kingsale (in photo) -- a former Oriole and Tiger who was knighted in 2004 -- was one of the stars for the Dutch, along with the pitching staff and pitching coach Bert Blyleven. There was trouble with last night's game, particularly play-by-play man Rich Waltz, who tried too hard to be dramatic, and the fact the MLB Network crew missed both ends of the decisive play. They missed showing the batter reaching first base safely and Kingsale scoring the winning run.

Here is the best quote from last night, courtesy the New York Times and David Ortiz: "I tell you, the whole world is shocked now. Even in Japan, they’re like ‘What the heck?’ in Japanese.”

Hype springs eternal

The excitement around Rick Porcello is building. Yesterday the 20-year-old tossed three innings of shutout ball. He gave up five hits, but walked none. And he showed some moxie by stranding runners on third base in each of his three frames.

This is how Lynn Henning began his story in the Detroit News today: "Subtly, almost accidentally, you can hear in the Tigers' voices and see in their expressions that Rick Porcello is about to become a big-leaguer."

There's still a lot of spring training to go. Maybe someone from the Dontrelle Willis, Nate Robertson, Zach Miner triangle will step up to claim the slot for the No. 5 starter. From all reports, though, Porcello might be the Tigers' best starter and not just someone deserving a spot. Of course, we've seen these stories time and time again. Fortunately, Jim Leyland has refrained from saying anything like, "If you don't like Rick Porcello, you don't like ice cream."

Walking away

Nate Robertson and Dontrelle Willis combined for six walks, six hits and five runs in four innings yesterday against the Yankees. Rick Porcello starts tonight for the Tigers and might have taken a step closer to being on the roster when spring training ends. Or maybe it was Robertson and Willis who took steps back. Either way, I'm glad there's still a little more than three weeks to sort out this situation. Or not. On Saturday, Edwin Jackson gave up three walks, one hit and three runs in three innings vs. the Phillies. On Friday against the Yanks, Justin Verlander walked only one, but threw 50 pitches in 2.1 innings. He gave up four hits and four runs (three earned).

Who Can It Be Now?

2 more have been eliminated in the O's starting rotation sweepstakes. The O's are now down to 32 of the original 37, however, the recent addition of Adam Eaton bumps the original number to 38 and leaves the remaining number of hopefuls at 33.

It still won't be enough.

Young guns

Rick Porcello (photo) got high marks for his 2 innings of work yesterday against Panama. He struck out 3, walked 2 and allowed only an infield single. Ryan Perry, who was last year's No. 1 pick by the Tigs, pitched a scoreless inning, too. He appeared in 14 minor league games last season, all in relief, and had four saves with a 3.29 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. (Perry was a starter and reliever during his college days at Arizona.)

Here is how MLB.com quoted Jim Leyland: "I'm looking at them close. Do they have a chance? They have a chance. Would it be the best thing? I don't know. But I know one thing: You watch, and it makes you stop and look. And at some point, it might make you stop and think."

I have to believe Leyland's comments are designed to fire up the veterans who are battling for spots. I cannot believe the Tigers are anxious to bring Porcello and/or Perry to Detroit when camp breaks. But, I also believe Leyland will do what is best for the club, and if that means one or both of the youngsters is on the final roster, so be it.

Major stuff

Rick Porcello starts today for the Tigs. The 20-year-old (and he only turned 20 in December) seemed destined to head to the minors this season, but with Jeremy Bonderman's shoulder woes, who knows? Here is the way Tigers.com quoted Jim Leyland: "I'm looking for pitching. That's all I'm going to tell you. You can write into it whatever you want."

It still seems unlikely the Tigers will rush Porcello. From what I've read, they limited him to a 75-pitch count last season, so it might be tough to jump to the big leagues. Porcello was 8-6 with a 2.66 ERA and 1.19 WHIP at high-A Lakeland. He threw only 125 innings and struck out 72 while walking 33. The K-rate doesn't indicate the stuff Porcello has. Again, I read he was limited in pitch selection and focused on getting outs early in the count rather than posting strikeouts.

So, we'll see how this plays out. Detroit still has Nate Robertson, Dontrelle Willis, and Zach Miner battling for the final spot (as long as Bonderman is OK) in the rotation. But there is already little doubt Porcello seems to be the best talent.

Hope they didn't dig in

The Tigers faced Venezuela's World Baseball Classic squad today and that means Dontrelle Willis pitched against Detroit teammates Miguel Cabrera, Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen. Given Willis' struggles with control, wasn't there another option? Couldn't Kenny Rogers have been coaxed out of retirement (or whatever) to soft toss to the boys?

Oddly, the number of Tigers facing each other (Armando Galarraga pitched for Venezuela) seemed to gain little attention compared to Derek Jeter playing against the Yankees. I feel a Jeter rant building, so I'm going to end here.

Aw, hell, I can't. They love showing Jeter falling into the stands on that catch he made in 2004, but he'd already caught the ball before he fell into the seats. There have been guys that have made plays far more impressive while in the act of actually catching the ball in the seats. And remember that play Chase Utley made in the World Series, faking a throw to first and then nailing a guy at the plate? Can you imagine if Jeter made that play? Songs probably would've been written about it.

Aside from 1999, when Jeter had a superstar-caliber season, he's been nothing more than a good to very good player. His career adjusted OPS+ of 120 ranks with Shawn Green and Richie Sexson. It's not even as good as Jorge Posada's (124) or Hideki Matsui's (123). An OPS+ of 120 ranks tied for 329 in history according to baseball-reference.com. Not that OPS+ is the be all and end all; I'm just saying. (And let's not even talk defense.)

So, anyway, I wish the Tigers didn't pitch Willis against their own guys and I'm glad everyone escaped unscathed.

Aches and pains

Jeremy Bonderman returned to Detroit to have doctors examine his sore right shoulder. Sparky returned to the medicine cabinet to get aspirin for the ache in his head.

Stanley might be making a similar trip, for a different reason. Baltimore signed Adam Eaton to a minor league deal. Maybe the old "change of scenery" will do Eaton good. I suppose it's a low risk, high reward move by the O's, who are in desperate need of pitching, especially with Rich Hill missing a start because of elbow pain.

Cement shoes

Sparky, Laura, Mark and Mark's mom attended the Philadelphia Flower Show today. One of the exhibits included a statue wearing a Phillies cap. The form of the statue was female, otherwise Sparky was sure it was a tribute to ex-Phil Pat Burrell and his defensive prowess. (Baseball Prospectus might never top the line about no matter how close Burrell appears to a ball, he's still only halfway there.)

Swing shift

Brandon Inge reportedly has changed his approach/positioning at the plate this year. In an effort to get excited about every possible little thing that means nothing yet, we are happy to note that Inge has 4 hits, including a double and homer, in 6 ABs. And zero Ks.

We hope this new approach continues to produce results. Inge is one of those oddities, it seems, in that he sees a lot of pitches per at-bat, but has an awful batting average and on-base percentage. Never has he seen fewer than an average of 4 pitches per AB in his career. The new approach supposedly will improve his ability to handle inside pitches -- pitches he would foul off or miss entirely.

We'll see how this plays out. There was a time when Inge actually wasn't awful offensively. If he could get his OPS back to the .750-.780 range, it might make the Tigers lineup extremely potent.

Late Bloom-er

One pitcher to watch this spring in Detroit's camp is lefty Kyle Bloom. The Tigs picked him up in the Rule 5 draft. He played in the Pirates' farm system previously.

From what I've read, Bloom has got a fastball that hit the upper 90s and a curveball that's already impressed Jim Leyland. Control issues have plagued him in the minors, but supposedly he made some adjustments late last season and finished strong. On the down side, he just turned 26 and has never pitched above Double-A.

He's tossed an inning this spring, striking out 2 and getting a save. He started 111 of 117 games in the minors, but his only hope with Detroit is in the pen. Bobby Seay is the only lefty reliever who figures to be a lock on the roster.

Rhymes and reason

One of the joys of spring training is finding names you'll likely not see once April arrives. Today's Tigers box score included Casper Wells and Will Rhymes. I like those guys just for their names alone. Wells is probably in the middle of any list of the top 20 Detroit prospects and Rhymes is thought of as a utilityman, at best.

Of course, part of my fascination with the names is to avoid acknowledging the pitching lines for D Train and F Rod. The Detroit Free Press reported about Dontrelle Willis:

One inning pitched (faced three batters in fourth), three hits, four runs, two earned runs, one walk, no strikeouts, one hit batter.

"I felt great," Willis said. "I know my (pitching) line doesn't show that, but I felt great. A couple of balls got away from me, and my tempo kind of got out of whack at the end."

Asked what he was happiest about in his performance, Willis said, "I'm happy about everything but the line. But I'm happy that I was able to throw all my pitches for strikes and stay ahead (in the count) for the most part."

I guess I'm happy about everything but the line, too.

It Still Can Only Get Better

An inauspicious start for 3 O's pitchers.  Only 34 left.

Bulking Up

Adam Jones has gained 10 lbs. 

There may be progress in getting Felix Pie into Spring Training, which would add another 170.

Go O's!

Grand indeed

There is no question that we love Curtis Granderson at DTFT. And why not? He busts his butt every day and leaves the batter's box on the fly every time he puts the ball in play. And he's a heck of a nice guy, too. If that wasn't enough, he lists "A Christmas Story" as one of his 3 favorite movies.

D Train chugging along

Early reports from Tigers camp regarding Dontrelle Willis are encouraging. Of course, one might expect little else this time of year. But Jim Leyland said a recent session by Willis was the best he'd thrown since being acquired by Detroit.

New pitching coach Rick Knapp comes to the Tigers with the rep of teaching pitchers to pound the strike zone and is given credit for the success of Twins pitchers (Knapp's previous gig was as Minnesota's minor league guru) in throwing strikes. He's reportedly given Dontrelle, in a nutshell, the same advice Nuke LaLoosh received from Crash Davis -- Don't think, meat. He wants Dontrelle to be Dontrelle and focus on fun and not his delivery.

Dontrelle Being Dontrelle doesn't sound quite as cool as Manny Being Manny, but if it leads to wins for the Tigers, it will acquire a nice ring.

Could Be A Good Sign

O's newly acquired veteran catcher Greg Zaun reports that Koji Uehara has "above-average Major League stuff".

I hope he really means "as compared to Major League pitchers", and not "as compared to Oriole pitchers".

Instant Club Hit (You'll Dance to Anything)

Someone was talking about the Dead Milkmen today, which always leads us to ex-Tiger Jim Walewander. The quirky Walewander might have been forgotten if not for his professed love of the Dead Milkmen, which was even listed on his baseball card. Walewander's career amounted to 242 at-bats over parts of four seasons (he was primarily used as a pinch-runner or late-inning defensive sub). He batted .215 with 1 HR and 14 RBI in his career.

Here is part of the beauty of the Walewander story, though. As a rookie in 1987, he got the Dead Milkmen to visit Tiger Stadium and even meet Sparky Anderson in the dugout (photo). Then, Walewander went out and hit the only HR of his big league career. It came off Willie Fraser of the Angels on July 26. As they say, you can look it up.

Blue Jays' fans might remember Walewander for a different reason. Twice down the stretch in 1987, Walewander scored the winning run as a pinch-runner in extra innings against Toronto. The first time came on Sept. 27 when Walewander ran through a stop sign to score on Kirk Gibson's single and reduce Detroit's deficit to 2.5 games. It started a season-ending 7-game skid for the Jays and the Tigers won the division on the final day.

The positive thinking begins

The Tigers are heading into camp and it's time to be optimistic about the upcoming campaign. Sure, the Kitties were a mess last season, but that's the past. I'm not here to talk about the past. We're coming here with hope for 2009. Can the Tigers return to the postseason? Yes we can.

There are plenty of reasons to think the Tigers can rebound from last year's 74-88 season. First, if Detroit can stay a little bit healthy, it will go a long way. The starting rotation could be better if Justin Verlander regains his Cy Young-type form, if Jeremy Bonderman and Nate Robertson bounce back from injuries, if Edwin Jackson improves on the form he displayed in Tampa, and if Armando Galarraga duplicates his solid rookie year. Then, there's Dontrelle Willis, who could become a functional big leaguer again, and Zach Miner, who adds some depth. Rick Porcello waits in the wings.

The back of the bullpen could be outstanding if Joel Zumaya is healthy and Fernando Rodney pitches to his stuff and Brandon Lyon finds consistency.

Offensively, Miguel Cabrera could be poised for a monster season now that he's got a year in the AL under his belt. He ended 2008 on a tear. A healthy Gary Sheffield would up the ante, as would having Curtis Granderson for a full season. If Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen and Placido Polanco produce at their usual levels, the offense could resemble the feared lineup everyone expected last year.

Even more importantly, the defense should be much better. Cabrera should be more comfortable at first. The return of Brandon Inge to third and addition of Adam Everett at short could alone, if you believe some of Fangraphs defensive metrics, save the Tigers 50 to 80 runs over 150 games compared to last season.

Sure, there are a lot of "ifs" but they're not ridiculous. If some of the ifs come through, the Tigers will be contenders. If most or all come through, they will be a force.

Hooray for Stan

Well done for finally getting DTFT on the board in 2009. And you're right: 37 pitchers probably aren't enough for the O's. Rich Hill could be a big addition, or a bust. Tough call, but well worth the risk, I think. The O's outfield could be exciting.

Ahhhh..... Spring!

The Baltimore Orioles have 37 pitchers reporting to Spring Training.

It probably won't be enough.

Okay, now get Huston Street to pitch the seventh

There are a number of reasons to be less than ecstatic about the Mets’ acquisition of JJ Putz. Here are some of them. The Mets gave up seven players to get three players. They gave up perhaps the best defensive outfielder in the game and replaced him with a twenty-seven year old failed prospect who’s never hit at the major league level. They gave up a young reliever who owns right handed hitters in exchange for one who’s five years older and not quite as good against the righties. Putz missed time in early 2008 due to injuries including an elbow injury. And even if he’s healthy and great in 2009, the Mets will have to pay him $8.6 million in 2010 to be a setup man. This trade is far from a fleecing of the Mariners.

But the Mets did get the best player in the deal in Putz and I think this deal improves the team at least for 2009. If Putz is healthy, he is capable of being one of the best relievers in the league. Having such a pitcher who is not tied to the label of “closer” will be quite useful when a critical situation arises prior to the ninth inning. New closer Francisco Rodriguez was never going to be used in such a situation, but Putz could be leveraged to be the most valuable arm in the bullpen. But even if Putz is merely used to pitch the eighth as a bridge to Rodriguez, the two will give the Mets as dependable a game-ending duo as any in the game.

The most notable, if not the best, player the Mets gave up was Aaron Heilman, who had recently completed his worst season as a major leaguer and restated his desire to be used as a starter. He will probably bounce back somewhat and might even have been able to do so with the Mets, but he would have had to overcome a much more hostile environment than the one he’ll find in Seattle. The Mets could be criticized for selling low on a talented player. Perhaps if Heilman’s 2008 hadn’t been so disastrous, the Mets wouldn’t have had to load up this deal with prospects to get it done. But holding on to Heilman and trying to rehabilitate his reputation in 2009 would have been quite risky both in terms of the team’s fortunes and the chance that he might not rebound and thus become untradeable. Heilman may be a great reliever again, or even a good starter, but he wasn’t likely to be either with the Mets. Allowing them to acquire Putz was probably the most value he could provide to the team that drafted him in first round seven years ago.

No other player involved in the trade is likely to make a huge impact on his new team in 2009 or beyond, but the Mets did lose some nice complimentary players. In exchanging Joe Smith for Sean Green, the Mets get slightly worse at retiring right-handed hitters in the middle innings. If Green is used just as Smith was, this is a minor downgrade. But Green has been a bit better than Smith, though certainly not good, at retiring lefties in his career. This may make him a little more versatile than the young sidearmer.

The biggest loss in this trade is the great Endy Chavez. Endy is not much of a hitter, but he patrols the outfield like no other and probably spends his free time rescuing treed kittens and feeding nutritious meals to homeless orphans. He’ll be replaced in the role of fourth outfielder by Jeremy Reed, who used to be a highly touted prospect before it turned out he couldn’t hit. Reed has a good defensive reputation in some circles, but none of the advanced defensive stats seem to bear that out and in any case there’s no way he could be the equal of He Who Is Called Endy. This exchange won’t make or break the Mets season, particularly if they find a real left fielder in their foraging through the free agent forest (Raul Ibañez DOES NOT COUNT). But I am sad to see Endy go.

The rest of the deal really, really won’t alter the course of the 2009 Mets’ season. First baseman Mike Carp might be a decent bench player or mediocre DH in the major leagues some day, but he is not a future star. I don’t think I’d ever heard of outfielder Ezequiel Carrera or right-handed pitcher Maikel Cleto before last night but it doesn’t seem either is anywhere close to becoming a significant presence in the major leagues. The Mets gave up a bunch of bodies to get this job done and I don’t like to see that, but I don’t expect any of these players to be missed.

The Mets lost a good bench player and a solid young middle reliever but acquired a reliever who has been great for two and a half of the last three years. Having two relievers of the quality of JJ Putz and Rodriguez who can get both righties and lefties out is a major upgrade. The bullpen as it stands right now looks very good and could be great with some luck and/or shrewd lower profile acquisitions. We’ll see if Omar Minaya could make similarly wise additions to other parts of his team but right now I’m feeling pretty optimistic about the 2009 Mets.

In Rod We Trust

The Mets announced earlier today that they have come to an agreement with free agent Francisco Rodriguez. They will pay him $37 million to be their closer for the next three years. The bullpen was the most obvious hole in this team, both in the fantasy land where New York sportswriters and talk radio callers live and in the real world. So it didn't take a lot of imagination to guess what would happen when a young, obviously great reliever in possession of both the single season saves record and a catchy nickname became available. "K"-Rod will not be dramatically more useful to the Mets than Billy Wagner was at the beginning of this year or the end of last year. But he will be significantly more valuable to them than a one-armed Billy Wagner, so this move does a lot to improve the chances of the 2009 Mets. The fact that the deal is short and relatively reasonable in terms of dollars makes the decision even easier. Omar Minaya's job is far from over if he's going to get the Mets back to the playoffs, but this was a fine start to the offseason.

This move is trademark Minaya in that it involved finding a great player and giving him a lot of money. This strategy hasn't always worked out perfectly, as in the cases of Pedro Martinez and Billy Wagner. And it took a good trade to get the process started in the case of Johan Santana. But, much like when Carlos Beltran hit the market in 2004, there was a guy out there who everyone agreed was great and the Yankees weren't bidding on him for one reason or another. Beltran's 7-year, $119 million deal seemed enormous at the time and has so far worked out great for the Mets. A closer like Rodriguez who pitches seventy innings a year can't have the sort of impact that Beltran has had on the Mets, but for this sort of contract, he doesn't need to.

Now that the easy part is over, Minaya needs to get a little more creative to fill some other holes in his roster. A common criticism of Minaya has been that he's much better at throwing Fred Wilpon's money around to attract stars than finding cheap but productive players to fill out his supporting cast. There have been a few good finds on the scrap heap like Jose Valentin in 2007 and Fernando Tatis in 2008. But Minaya's huge payroll teams have also given starts to the likes of Tony Armas Jr, Chan Ho Park and Jose Lima.

Minaya's tendency to err on the side of Guys You've Heard Of is especially dangerous when it comes to rebuilding a bullpen. The most predictable thing about great middle relievers is that they won't last very long. If you try to fill your bullpen with guys who have reputations for success at the big league level, you wind up giving the ball to Scott Schoeneweis 143 times in two years. Minaya could perhaps skirt this issue by getting Brian Fuentes or Huston Street to be his setup man. Those two aren't guaranteed to be great for years to come, but will probably be solid and able to get batters out from both sides of the plate. Even that would give the Mets a lot more certainty in the late innings than they have had in a while.

The Rodriguez signing in an excellent first step to rebuilding the Mets' pitching staff but there's a lot of work left to do. Maybe Minaya will throw more money at a closer to pitch his eighth innings. Maybe he'll give a few minor league veterans a chance to show what they can do at the major league level. Or maybe, just maybe, he'll find a starting pitcher or two who can pitch into the seventh inning once in a while.

NLCS Game 2 Pitching Matchup

Chad Billingsley has yielded an .880 OPS to the Phillies lineup in 83 PAs. Ryan Howard and Pedro Feliz have touched him for HRs. Philly has walked 12 times vs. Billingsley; could be a key. Their OBP is .402 against Billingsley. Giving out free passes in the Zen is a recipe for disaster.

Brett Myers has held LA to a .708 OPS in 194 PAs. Manny Ramirez, Jeff Kent, and Matt Kemp each have 1 HR against him.

Philly got 3 R on 7 H in 6 IP off Billingsley earlier this year in their only meeting against him. Myers faced LA twice, striking out 8 both times. In the first outing, he gave up 3 R on 5 H in 7 IP. In the second, he tossed 7 IP of shutout ball.

Bang ... Zoom

King Cole

The Dodgers have limited experience against Phillies Game 1 starter Cole Hamels. LA has posted a .498 OPS vs. Hamels in 64 PAs. Russell Martin has the Dodgers only HR. Hamels faced LA twice in the regular season and gave up 2 R and 5 H in 7 IP both times. The Dodgers were 31-21 vs. LHP this year; 53-57 vs. RHP.

Lowe down

The Phillies have had very little success vs. Dodgers Game 1 starter Derek Lowe. The Fightins have posted a .598 OPS in 163 PAs. Pedro Feliz (2), Matt Stairs (1) and Chris Coste (1) have the only HRs off Lowe. Chase Utley has 3 doubles and .971 OPS. He's the only regular with an OPS above .775 vs. Lowe.

Manny and LA

Much has been made of Manny Ramirez's impact on the Dodgers. Here are some numbers to consider:

LA hit 74 HR in 108 G prior to Manny's arrival; 63 HR in 54 G after. (Manny had 17 of them.)

The Dodgers' pre-Manny OPS was .697. Post-Manny .798.

Manny's OPS was 1.093 batting in the No. 4 spot. It was 1.367 in the No. 3 spot, which is where he ended the season.

Andre Ethier posted a 1.082 OPS after Manny's arrival. He was at .781 prior. He had a 1.251 OPS hitting in front of Manny in the No. 2 spot.

James Loney, conversely, had a rather poor .697 OPS after Manny's arrival. He was at .810 prior. Matt Kemp had a .768 OPS after Manny. Casey Blake was .753.

It seems Ethier most benefited from Manny. Of course, the Dodgers didn't have Rafael Furcal when Manny arrived. Furcal + a hot Ethier + Manny = trouble. But if the Phils can neutralize that part of the lineup, they have a good chance.

Phillies vs. Brewers

Thoughts looking ahead, as well as back, in the Phil-Brewers series.

Even with yesterday's victory, the presence of C.C. Sabathia makes Milwaukee scary. Sabathia will get 2 starts, which means the Phils need to steal a win today or go 2-0 in Milwaukee to end the series. I don't think you want to go to Game 5 and have to be Sabathia.

I would have started Jamie Moyer today because I think he'd be a tricky followup to Cole Hamels. I'm guessing Brett Myers gets the nod because Charlie Manuel wants him to start at home. This makes sense given that Myers has yielded only 7 ER in 44.1 IP at the Zen since his return from the minors. That's a 1.42 ERA and even includes his rather poor final start. Also, Myers tossed a 2-hit complete game, giving up 1 run, against the Brewers in Philly on September 14. Moyer, with his experience and poise, might be better suited for the road start, I suppose.

Manuel made the right move bringing in Brad Lidge in the 9th yesterday. The Brewers had the top of the order coming up and there was no sense taking a chance on Hamels getting into trouble. Some thought Manuel was dumb for taking out Hamels the way he pitched, but Manuel would have let far dumber if he let that game get away while his 41-for-41 reliever stood in the bullpen. Sure, Lidge made the Phils sweat, but it was the right move.

Chase Utley's double would have been an error on Mike Cameron if I was the official scorer.

Sabathia hasn't faced the Phils. If Philly fans want a reason to be optimistic, Sabathia's worst outings in the NL came against the Cubs, who were the only team to score more runs than the Phils this season.

Thud

Good to see the Tigers playing with pride. Let's see, 1 win in the last 12 games and a move into the AL Central cellar behind KC. It's been a year to remember, but not for the reasons everyone (most everyone) predicted at the beginning of the season. Never could I have thought it would be this bad.

Never did the Tigers get higher than 3 games over .500. They were 15-24 in 1-run games. They lost 18 of 82 games in which they entered the 8th inning either with the lead or tied. (By comparison, KC lost 13 of 79). They were shutout 12 times (including last night) and yet managed to score 19 runs in a game three separate times! After Miguel Cabrera (125) and Magglio Ordonez (98), Curtis Granderson is third on the team with 61 RBI. Armando Galarraga ended up the ace of the staff.

Oh, the horror.

The end of the ride

Todd Jones, aka Roller-Coaster, announced his retirement, and kept his sense of humor.

“So this is it,” Jones wrote in his most recent Sporting News column. “If you’re a Tigers fan, I’ll never stress you out again. If you’re not a Tigers fan, you’ll never have me as your ace in the hole, convinced I’ll blow a lead against your team.”

Jones finished his career ranked No. 14 in saves, with 319. He ranks No. 1 in Tigers' history, with 235 saves for Detroit.

We wish you well, Jonesy.

Tim the Enchanter

Tim Lincecum is having an amazing season, and aside from a Sports Illustrated cover story, it seems to be largely overlooked.

Lincecum's win percentage is .810 on a team with a .445 win percentage (and the SF bullpen has blown five leads for him). He's got a 2.46 ERA and his ERA+ is 174, well ahead of No. 2 Johan Santana at 155. The only NL pitchers over the last 40 years to lead the NL with a better mark are Roger Clemens, Jason Schmidt, Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, Kevin Brown, Pedro Martinez, Dwight Gooden, Nolan Ryan, Tom Seaver, Steve Carlton, and Bob Gibson.

His splits are incredible. Against RHB, Lincecum is .222/.289/.332 while against LHB he's .219/.299/.292. His BABIP is around .300 against both righties and lefties, which indicates his numbers are legit, not a fluke.

With men on base, he's .190/.243/.268 and with RISP he's .163/.234/.261. With a man on third and less than 2 outs, he's .125/.225/.156. Talk about rising to the occasion.

The third time (or more) through the batting order, he's .209/.292/.309.

Consider, Santana is .228/.277/.338 his first time through the order and .280/.332/.441 the third time (or more) through. Brandon Webb's splits for those situations are .205/.251/.260 and .263/.338/.386.

Lincecum, for the record, is .193/.261/.293 his first time through the order. Now, look again at his figures for the third time through. You don't solve a problem like Tim.

He's got 243 K in 215.2 IP.

To me, he's the NL Cy Young Award winner. It will be interesting.

Just so you know

Tonight is the final game ever at Yankee Stadium. In case you hadn't heard.

I'm sorry Ryan

Upon further review, I was too hard on Ryan Howard. I'm still not sure I would vote him MVP, but I can make a much better argument for him now.

Howard's low OPS can be mostly attributed to his lack of production with the bases empty. Howard is .192/.275/.440 with no one aboard. His BABIP is .212, which probably is a result of "the shift." With men on base, Howard's numbers are .306/.395/.637.

He has nearly the same number of PAs in both situations. But he has 20 fewer Ks with men on base, plus 10 more walks.

With RISP, Howard is .315/.436/.571.
With RISP and 2 outs, Howard is .318/.453/.541.

And he's been off the charts good the past month.

Overall, he's got 87 H and 115 RBI with men on base.

Is it enough to be awesome for only half the game and pretty much dreadful otherwise? Albert Pujols' OPS is the same whether the bases are empty or there are runners on base -- 1.104.

Everything's gonna be all right

If you're wondering why I haven't posted anything in a while, I assure you I have a very good excuse. Things had been going so well for the Mets since I last posted that I didn't want to do anything to jinx them. But now that the team's fortunes have taken a bit of a downturn in the last few days, I thought I'd come back and try to talk Mets fans off the ledge. With fourteen games left to play, the Mets have a one and a half game lead over the Phillies and a fanbase and media eager to remind them of last year's collapse. Instead of joining the chorus of naysayers, I will now give several reasons why September 2008 will not be a repeat of September 2007.

Johan Santana. In September 2007, the only Met starters with ERAs under 4.5 were Pedro Marintez at 2.57 and Oliver Perez at 4.45 and neither of them averaged even six innings per start. Tom Glavine, John Maine and Orlando Hernandez all had terrible months, Mike Pelfrey was still pitching like the 2007 Mike Pelfey and guys like Brian Lawrence and Philip Humber got key starts with disastrous results. This September, Santana has pitched 20.1 innings in three starts with a 2.66 ERA, 20 strikeouts and only six walks and one home run allowed. The 2.66 ERA is actually the highest he's had in any month since May and he's been averaging more than six innings per start all season long. Overall Met starters aren't having a great month, posting a 4.90 ERA in September, but both Jonathon Niese and Oliver Perez pitched well this weekend and Santana gives the team something they didn't have last year. He is someone they can depend on to go out every five days and pitch well deep into the game. That's not enough to seal up the division, but it should be a big help in avoiding the five-game losing streaks that befell the team twice last September.

Guillermo Mota. Guillermo Mota is pitching for the Milwaukee Brewers right now, which has been and should continue to be a big help to the Mets' bullpen. The 2007 Mets' pen ranked high on the list of reasons for the collapse, well ahead of the offense, posting an ERA of 4.40 in the second half an 4.63 in September after a 3.67 first half. This year they had another good first half at 3.81 and bad second half at 4.86, but they've turned things around with a 3.03 ERA 30:14 K:BB ratio and just 29 hits and three home runs in 35.2 innings. Sure, they blew two run leads with two innings to go in two of the last three games, but overall they've been dependable. Luis Ayala shouldn't be given too long of a leash as closer, but he has been solid with a 9:1 K:BB ratio and only one home run allowed in thirteen innings.

Daniel Murphy. The young infielder-turned-outfielder is hitting .360/.442/.528 in 89 at bats with the Mets and he is just the best example of a group of young players who are making an impact for the Mets in this pennant race. There's Jonathon Niese, who pitched eight shutout innings on Saturday. There's Nick Evans, who is mashing lefties to the tune of .338/.386/.508. These are the sort of players who would have been left to rot on Willie Randolph's bench. While I haven't agreed with every decision made during the Jerry Manuel regime, he has shown more willingness to play young, unproven rookies in important roles than Willie ever did and the team has benefited greatly from it.

Fernando Tatis. Thirty-three year old Fernando Tatis, who had all of 56 major league at bats from 2004 to 2007 is hitting .301/.375/.489 for the Mets this year. This continues to be ridiculous. I was genuinely surprised when he didn't hit a game-tying three-run home run in the ninth inning on Sunday. If Mr. Two Grand Slams In One Inning can hit .300 with walks and power in 2008, how can the Mets not win the division?

It's not going to be easy. The Mets have a slightly tougher schedule than the Phillies the rest of the way as the Mets have to play the Cubs four times while the Phillies have only the Marlins, Braves and Nationals standing in their way. But while they may have the best record in the league, the next time the Chicago Cubs are a force to be reckoned with in September would be the first. Fourteen games remain and the Mets' magic number sits at thirteen. Good thing I'm not superstitious.

NL MVP

Surprisingly, many talking heads ARE putting Albert Pujols at the top of the MVP discussion. This is good. Unfortunately, I've also heard the names Carlos Delgado, Ryan Howard, and Ryan Braun tossed around. This is bad.

Delgado is understandable because of his second-half surge. But when measured by win shares, Carlos Beltran is the Mets' main man, followed closely by Jose Reyes.

Ryan Howard? Sure, he's got tons of dingers and RBI, but he has been lacking. It's hard to imagine calling someone with 42 HR and 126 RBI lacking, but it's true. He's got half the win shares of Lance Berkman, who leads the NL. Pujols is second, followed by Beltran. Howard's OPS is .845, which ranks between Mark DeRosa and Troy Glaus in the NL. His slugging percentage is tied for 17th in the league. You cannot discount he's driven in 126 runs, but given his opportunities, you get the feeling those numbers should be even better. Howard's RC/27 ranks 33rd in the NL, between Adam LaRoche and Cody Ross.

Keeping it close

I remember when the Tigers got off to their woeful start to the campaign all the commentators said the most important thing was for Detroit to stay close to Cleveland. That was all they needed to worry about because that was the team to beat in the division. Well, the Tigs are just 1 GB the Tribe as we head down the stretch! I can't wait to see the conclusion of this exciting race!