Blahton?

I've been busy with work, so I haven't had a chance to comment on the Joe Blanton trade to Philly. I can't assess what the Phils gave up, and from what I've read it's a mixed reaction. It seems they gave up some of the top potential talent in their system, although that might be faint praise.

So I'll focus simply on Blanton, who is 27. He was 14-10 with a 3.95 ERA last year and is 5-12 with a 4.96 ERA this season. The numbers indicate he might have greatly benefited from pitching in Oakland's spacious ballpark. That doesn't bode well with the change to the tiny Zen.

But why the struggles this season? I'm not a pitching coach, but I play one by misreading and speculating. (All the follow stats are from Fangraphs.com.) First, Blanton's K-BB ratio is worse. Last year, his K/9 and BB/9 were 5.48 and 1.57, respectively. This season, those numbers are 4.39 and 2.48. Last year, he threw 65% strikes, this year it's 63%, so there's not much difference there.

His line drive, groundball and flyball percentages all are similar to 2007. His BABIP was .306 last year and is .310 this season.

The only major difference I noticed was he is throwing more fastballs and fewer sliders. His curveball and change rates are virtually the same. His velocity on his fastball is right around 89, the same as last year. However, his average velocity on his curve is up (from 72.9 to 75) as well as on his slider (from 80.9 to 82.3).

So, has Blanton been overthrowing on those pitches? I have 2 theories here. First, the increase in velocity, particularly on the curve, is cause the pitch to flatten out a little and make it more hittable. My other idea is Blanton's increased velocity has hurt his control on those pitches, and maybe his confidence, and forced him to throw more fastballs. Perhaps his fastball is more hittable.

Anyway, it seems something worth exploring. Also worth noting was Blanton was 2-6 with a 3.69 ERA as of mid-May. He was 3-6 with a 6.44 ERA since then.

Delightful

The old English D never looked so good. Now, to use this inspiration to make a postseason run as the post All-Star break push gets under way.

It looks like it could take close to 94 wins to make the playoffs in the AL, and probably no fewer than 90. Detroit has 68 games remaining and 47 wins to date. That means going 43-25 at worst, but probably needing to go 47-21. In case you were wondering, 47-21 is .691 ball. That's pretty ridiculous. Winning 20 out of every 30 is only .667 ball.

The Tigers and Orioles are the only AL teams to get going tonight. Kenny Rogers (6-6, 4.55) faces Garrett Olson (6-4, 5.65). Olson has never faced Detroit.

Magglio is back. He will be in the No. 4 spot, as he has been all season. Marcus Thames will bat third. Brandon Inge gets a start at 3B because Carlos Guillen is in Detroit due to a family situation.

All-Star break breakdown, Tigers pitching

Here are a few interesting tidbits about Detroit's pitching (and, in a way, defense) at the break.

One stat jumped out at me off the bat. (A pun!) Tigers' lefties have an OPS+ 134 vs. LHB. That's the least frequent situation faced, with 431 PAs, but it seems most of the time you're using a lefty to specifically get out a lefty. So that's troublesome.

Detroit's RHP is OPS+ 85 vs. RHB, its best situational stat as far as matchups.

The Tigers have a 4.41 ERA both at home and on the road. At least they're consistent.

Here's an oddity, it would appear: Detroit's OPS+ is 115 in wins and 90 in losses. That, to me, would indicate the hitting is carrying more of the load in victories and is also underperforming in losses.

Detroit has an OPS+ 107 with RISP. The number is 108 with RISP and 2 outs. The hitting, remember was particularly weak with RISP and 2 outs, so coupled with the pitching, that explains some of the Tigers' struggles.

As far as hit location, the OPS+ is 134 on balls to the infield. That would indicate some weak defensive range, perhaps? Not a surprise. Balls pulled by LHB (124) and balls hit the other way by RHB (120) might indicate trouble on the right side of the field, I'd say. The numbers for flyballs (72) and balls to the OF (90) are good, so the trouble is on the ground, again.

All-Star break breakdown, Tigers offense

Even though this isn't the official mid-point of the season, here is a look at the Tigers' offense at the All-Star break. First is Detroit's OPS+ by batting order position, compared against the AL average.

1st -- 111
2nd -- 107
3rd -- 76
4th -- 114
5th -- 103
6th -- 110
7th -- 98
8th -- 96
9th -- 178

So, the only spot in the order lighting it up is the No. 9 spot. The No. 3 spot is trouble and the remainder of the middle is above average, but nothing special.

I would like to see Magglio Ordonez, when he returns from the DL, move to the No. 3 spot. He's batting .307/.376/.490, all in the No. 4 spot, where his OPS+ vs. the league is 110. Overall, however, his OPS+ vs. the league is 134.

Miguel Cabrera needs to hit No. 4. He's only got 51 PAs in that spot, but his OPS+ vs. the AL is 142. Cabrera was brought here to be The Man. Let's make him so. His OPS+ vs. the league in the No. 5 spot is 107.

Carlos Guillen can bat No. 5 and Marcus Thames should see more time in the lineup, preferably in the No. 6 slot. Matt Joyce also can see time in the No. 6 hole, getting time from Thames against some righties.

The Tigers OPS+ is 122 at home and 91 on the road. This is a little surprising because Detroit was a good road team in the past (110 in 2007 and 112 in 2006).

Detroit has a 97 OPS+ with RISP, which is not good considering the potential in the lineup. The Tigers are 92 OPS+ with RISP and 2 outs. Their OPS+ is 82 in that situation when compared to their overall team value.

Twins killing

Minnesota is 9-4 vs. Tigers this season.

Detroit is 13-23 vs. AL Central.

Blech! That's the best I can do.

What goes around, comes around

Today, the Tigs were the ones to blow a comfortable lead. This one hurts. I don't want to dump on Todd Jones, but Detroit needs to find a better answer for the 9th inning.

Jonesy has blown only 2 saves this year (and his defense didn't help him today) but he's been ineffective in plenty of outings. You can't pitch to contact in the 9th, and that's all Jones can do. He's got 12 Ks in 36 IP.

By my count, he's allowed at least 1 run in 13 of 38 appearances. Jones' counterpart today, Joe Nathan, has allowed a run in 4 of 38 and today pitched out of a bases-loaded, one-out jam.

Springboard

The Tigers have some momentum going into a big 4-game set against Minnesota. They rallied from a 6-0 deficit tonight for an 8-6 win thanks to Casey Fossum pitching out of a bases-loaded jam, Carlos Guillen's defense in the ninth and Miguel Cabrera's walk-off 2-run tater.

Jim Leyland said recently he thought Cabrera was settling into a groove. Entering tonight, Cabrera was .319/.370/.537 in his last 50 games. He had 9 HR and 31 RBI. Over his last 25 games heading into tonight, he was .340/.379/.619 with 7 HR and 17 RBI.

Detroit is 22-8 in its last 30 games.

Seven and seven

Detroit smacked around Cleveland last night, with Miguel Cabrera hitting 2 HR. The Tigers are still 7 GB the White Sox in the AL Central. They also are 7 GB the Red Sox in the wild card.

Justin Verlander improved to 6-9 with the win last night. He is 5-3 with a 2.75 ERA in his last 11 starts. His BB/K is 28/58 in 72 IP compared to 21/30 in 49 IP during his 1-6 stretch to open the campaign.

Tonight, Eddie Bonine (2-1, 4.30) goes for the Tigers against Paul Byrd (3-10, 5.53), who baffled the kittens in June. Byrd's been awful lately (1-6,. 7.85). A Detroit victory means a sweep in the 2-game set.

Carlos Guillen owns Byrd: .444/.474/.833 in 38 PA.

Ahead are the Twins and the All-Star break. It would be nice to take 3 out of 4 against Minnesota. That would put the Tigers at 49-45 at the break.

All-Stars by SABR

Joe mentioned a few statistical ways to pick the All-Star teams, so here are some NL numbers based on Hardball Times' win shares and runs created stats (with voted NL starter in parentheses). Win share leaders are shown first, followed by runs created.

C - McCann/Soto; Martin (Soto)
1B - Berkman; Berkman (Berkman)
2B - Uggla; Utley (Utley)
3B - Jones; Jones (Jones)
SS - Guzman/Ramirez; Ramirez (Ramirez)
OF - McLouth/Beltran/Bay; Burrell/Bay/McLouth
(Soriano/Fukudome/Braun)

The NL reserves at catcher are McCann and Martin, so all 3 stat leaders made the squad. Berkman was an easy pick as the starter; Pujols and Gonzales were selected as reserves. Uggla and Guzman were picked as reserves up the middle along with Tejada. Aramis Ramirez is the reserve 3B. The OF sees Holliday, Ludwick and McLouth join the team.

McLouth should be there, but probably with Burrell, Beltran, Hart and Bay. Reyes should get the nod over Tejada at SS. Pujols and Gonzales are OK at 1B. Wright probably gets a slight edge over Ramirez at 3B.

Miller time

Andrew Miller, one of the Tigers traded in the Miguel Cabrera-Dontrelle Willis deal, appears to be finding his way with the Marlins. After going 1-2 with a 9.12 ERA in his first 6 starts, Miller has gone 4-5 with a 3.42 ERA in his last 12 starts. Foes have a .632 OPS vs. Miller in those last dozen, compared to 1.082 in the first 6.

Democracy doesn't work

The All-Star rosters have been announced and, as usual, the fans, coaches and players have made some odd choices. The only Met on the National League roster is Billy Wagner. Johan Santana, top five in the league in ERA and strikeouts, didn't make the cut. David Wright (.288/.385/.508, 137 OPS+) couldn't beat out Aramis Ramirez (.280/.379/.493, 126 OPS+) for the backup third base spot, but at least Wright made the "Final Vote" ballot.

But the biggest Met snub is Jose Reyes. At .294/.355/.482 with 29 steals, Reyes's numbers are almost identical to those of his best season in 2006 and he's doing it in a year when the average National Leaguer is hitting .258/.329/.409 compared to .265/.334/.427 two years ago. Instead of Reyes, the NL bench will feature Miguel Tejada, who's hitting .282/.319/.437 in a much better park in which to hit.

Every year the All-Star selection process yields some inexplicable results. And given the important role the All-Star Game plays both in deciding where the World Series will be played and definitively separating Hall Of Famers from washed up nobodies, I think it's time something be done. Major League Baseball needs to take the decision out of the fat, fleshy hands of fans, coaches and players and put it in the shiny metal claws of a sophisticated computer program. Ideally this computer would calculate something similar to VORP while taking into account some slightly more nebulous factors to make sure the game is still "fun." It could determine numerical values for making sure the home team and city are well represented and stocking the rosters with big-name stars that the viewing public will want to watch. MLB should probably hire NASA to design this program but if that is cost prohibitive, Nate Silver will suffice. Once this system is in place, All-Star rosters will henceforth be perfect representations of the best each league has to offer. This will ensure the fans get the best game possible, the television networks get the highest ratings ever and the grizzled old sportswriters get something to complain about. Everybody wins!

Initial thoughts

Detroit faces Seattle pitcher R.A. Dickey tonight. Hopefully, the Tigers have more success against him than the Mets had last night against J.A. Happ, who took the place of R.J. Swindle on the Phils roster. WTF.

Of course, the Mets struggled against Dickey (7 scoreless IP) recently; the only worthwhile start by Dickey lately (1-6, 8.54 ERA in last seven games).

Armando Galarraga goes for the Tigers. Advantage good guys, who look to inch above .500 again. Detroit has a .973 OPS in 44 PA vs. Dickey in his career.

Joie de vivre

The Tigers started 3 rookies -- Clete Thomas, Matt Joyce and Michael Hollimon -- last night in their 8-4 win at Seattle, and all contributed. I don't believe it is a coincidence Detroit's season turned when injuries forced something of a youth movement. All 3 rooks from last night have posted an above-average OPS+ in their limited action, and have provided some clutch moments, too. Armando Galarraga has been, by far, the Tigs most consistent and best starter. Freddy Dolsi has provided a little spark in the pen.

When the Tigers won unexpectedly in 2006, there was a youthful exuberance on the field. Probably a lot like what's happening in Tampa this year. This year, the exuberance was replaced by a businesslike atmosphere. Compounded by the early-season losing, there seemed to be no joy in Mudville. The young guys bring back that life. And I've noticed it's seemed to spread. The winning helps, of course. But I think seeing guys out there with something to prove might have re-lit the fire in the veterans.

Chicks dig the long ball

I haven't heard much of anything about home runs this season, but I noticed in recent weeks that it seemed a number of players had a good number of homers. Since we're roughly at the halfway point of the season, I took a look at the figures and there are 37 players with at least 15 HR so far. If we double that number, it means 37 players would hit at least 30 for the year. That would be the most players with at least 30 since 2001.

Of course, that pace can be expected to drop off now that Brett Myers, who apparently misunderstood Nike's old ad, was sent to the minors.

This is scary

Yesterday on DTFT: Not even the news of Magglio Ordonez heading to the DL can spoil the feeling today. It's just a chance for Matt Joyce to join the fun.

Today, the Tigers' run continued. Matt Joyce's pinch-hit 3B drove in the tying run in the top of the eighth and Joyce scored the winning run on Curtis Granderson's single. Detroit rallied from 4-1 down heading into the seventh to win 5-4 in Minnesota, picking up its sixth in a row and 18th of 22.

Casey Fossum got the victory and Joel Zumaya got a five-out save.

Tigers burning bright

So, this is how it turns around. The Tigers hit the official halfway point of the campaign at 41-40, a remarkable record considering they were a season-worst 12 games under .500 (24-36) on June 6. That makes them a rather mindboggling 17-4 since then.

As bad (and unlucky) as Detroit was early on, it's pretty much gone all the other way in the last 21 games. For your consideration:

Sunday's 4-3 win was fueled by Dane Sardinha's 2-run triple in the sixth inning. It was merely the backup catcher's first career hit.

Saturday's 8-7 win came on Miguel Cabrera's walkoff 2-RBI double. Oh, and Ryan Raburn hit the first grand slam of his life. Yep, going all the way back to first swinging a bat in Little League.

Friday's 7-1 victory was highlighted by Eddie Bonine's 8 IP, 5 H, 1 R gem. Yeah, Eddie Bonine. The guy who has given up only 11 H and 3 R in 15 IP since getting roughed up a bit in his big league debut.

Thursday's 3-2 triumph came on Clete Thomas' bases-loaded walk in the 1oth inning. It was Thomas' second bases-loaded walk of the game and it came an inning after Gary Sheffield tied the score with a solo HR.

And Wednesday's 8-7 win came on a Sheffield RBI knock in the ninth. Detroit fell behind 7-6 in the top of the eighth, but got a run in the bottom of the frame to tie it.

Damn, baseball is fun.

Not even the news of Magglio Ordonez heading to the DL can spoil the feeling today. It's just a chance for Matt Joyce to join the fun.

The climb continues

The Tigers beat the Rockies 7-1 tonight behind Eddie Bonine's sharp 8 IP and Curtis Granderson's 4 H (2 triples) and 3 R. Detroit is 39-40 and could reach .500 Saturday for the first time since being 0-0 on Opening Day.

Detroit is 15-4 in its last 19 games. That coincides with Jeremy Bonderman going on the DL and reliever Todd Jones proclaiming it just another chapter in the greatest comeback in baseball history. Jones is looking prophetic, for now.

Entering tonight's game, the Tigs staff had a 3.63 ERA during the previous 18 games. The pitchers were limiting hitters to .259/.325/.397 for a .722 OPS. They'd allowed 73 R.

Meanwhile, the Detroit batsmen were .306/.363/.500 for a .863 OPS during that span, with 97 R. Interestingly, they had almost the identical number of Ks and BBs (118/57 to 114/59) in the 18 games preceding their hot streak. During those previous 18 games, they batted just .254 and slugged .411 in going 8-10.

I'll repeat, the pitching is the biggest factor in this turnaround. Bonine has been good in his last 2 starts, much better than anything Dontrelle Willis provided and much better than anyone could have hoped. Getting back Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya might have been a bigger plus for the psyche than anything else at this point, but we'll take that for now.

Gary Sheffield appears to be healthy and Granderson has got his groove back. He might be the most vital piece of the offensive puzzle. During the Tigers' 14-4 run entering tonight, Granderson batted .387/.424/.581 for a 1.005 OPS. He had 2 HR, 7 RBI and 11 R. He has a 15-game hitting streak in the works. Detroit is 31-27 in games Grandy has appeared.

Latrell, meet Shawn

Observers say it was Chacon's best throw of the year.

Sheff cooking again

Gary Sheffield is back and appears to be healthy. The Tigers go for another series win today against the Cardinals. Todd Wellemeyer (7-2, 3.67) pitches for St. Louis and has done a decent job against Detroit in the past. Sheff has a HR against him and Curtis Granderson could be poised for a nice day. Nate Robertson (6-6, 5.60) counters. Troy Glaus has hit Robertson pretty well in the past, but that's about it.

The Tigers had a season-high 19 hits last night in their 8-7 win. Their previous high of 18 hits came in a 10-9 victory. They've also had 17 hits in a 12-8 win and 16 hits in an 11-9 win. Nothing like making those knocks count.

Rally good

The Tigers got a 7-5 win in SD last night. The starting pitchers didn't figure much in the outcome, but Marcus Thames did. Thames hit a 2-run pinch HR to break a 5-5 tie in the seventh. Jeff Larish also had a pinch RBI single in the seventh. Magglio Ordonez gunned down a runner at the plate in the eighth and had a 2-run HR. Detroit overcame deficits of 3-1 and 5-4 to get the victory.

Curtis Granderson had two hits and two runs. He made a typical Granderson play in the third when he reached on an infield single and advanced to third when the ball was thrown away. I think many guys would have jogged into second on the play, but Grandy hustled around and then scored on a Placido Polanco sac fly.

Justin Verlander faces Randy Wolf today as the Tigers try to win their fourth consecutive series before returning home to tangle with the Cardinals and Rockies.