In Rod We Trust

The Mets announced earlier today that they have come to an agreement with free agent Francisco Rodriguez. They will pay him $37 million to be their closer for the next three years. The bullpen was the most obvious hole in this team, both in the fantasy land where New York sportswriters and talk radio callers live and in the real world. So it didn't take a lot of imagination to guess what would happen when a young, obviously great reliever in possession of both the single season saves record and a catchy nickname became available. "K"-Rod will not be dramatically more useful to the Mets than Billy Wagner was at the beginning of this year or the end of last year. But he will be significantly more valuable to them than a one-armed Billy Wagner, so this move does a lot to improve the chances of the 2009 Mets. The fact that the deal is short and relatively reasonable in terms of dollars makes the decision even easier. Omar Minaya's job is far from over if he's going to get the Mets back to the playoffs, but this was a fine start to the offseason.

This move is trademark Minaya in that it involved finding a great player and giving him a lot of money. This strategy hasn't always worked out perfectly, as in the cases of Pedro Martinez and Billy Wagner. And it took a good trade to get the process started in the case of Johan Santana. But, much like when Carlos Beltran hit the market in 2004, there was a guy out there who everyone agreed was great and the Yankees weren't bidding on him for one reason or another. Beltran's 7-year, $119 million deal seemed enormous at the time and has so far worked out great for the Mets. A closer like Rodriguez who pitches seventy innings a year can't have the sort of impact that Beltran has had on the Mets, but for this sort of contract, he doesn't need to.

Now that the easy part is over, Minaya needs to get a little more creative to fill some other holes in his roster. A common criticism of Minaya has been that he's much better at throwing Fred Wilpon's money around to attract stars than finding cheap but productive players to fill out his supporting cast. There have been a few good finds on the scrap heap like Jose Valentin in 2007 and Fernando Tatis in 2008. But Minaya's huge payroll teams have also given starts to the likes of Tony Armas Jr, Chan Ho Park and Jose Lima.

Minaya's tendency to err on the side of Guys You've Heard Of is especially dangerous when it comes to rebuilding a bullpen. The most predictable thing about great middle relievers is that they won't last very long. If you try to fill your bullpen with guys who have reputations for success at the big league level, you wind up giving the ball to Scott Schoeneweis 143 times in two years. Minaya could perhaps skirt this issue by getting Brian Fuentes or Huston Street to be his setup man. Those two aren't guaranteed to be great for years to come, but will probably be solid and able to get batters out from both sides of the plate. Even that would give the Mets a lot more certainty in the late innings than they have had in a while.

The Rodriguez signing in an excellent first step to rebuilding the Mets' pitching staff but there's a lot of work left to do. Maybe Minaya will throw more money at a closer to pitch his eighth innings. Maybe he'll give a few minor league veterans a chance to show what they can do at the major league level. Or maybe, just maybe, he'll find a starting pitcher or two who can pitch into the seventh inning once in a while.

NLCS Game 2 Pitching Matchup

Chad Billingsley has yielded an .880 OPS to the Phillies lineup in 83 PAs. Ryan Howard and Pedro Feliz have touched him for HRs. Philly has walked 12 times vs. Billingsley; could be a key. Their OBP is .402 against Billingsley. Giving out free passes in the Zen is a recipe for disaster.

Brett Myers has held LA to a .708 OPS in 194 PAs. Manny Ramirez, Jeff Kent, and Matt Kemp each have 1 HR against him.

Philly got 3 R on 7 H in 6 IP off Billingsley earlier this year in their only meeting against him. Myers faced LA twice, striking out 8 both times. In the first outing, he gave up 3 R on 5 H in 7 IP. In the second, he tossed 7 IP of shutout ball.

Bang ... Zoom

King Cole

The Dodgers have limited experience against Phillies Game 1 starter Cole Hamels. LA has posted a .498 OPS vs. Hamels in 64 PAs. Russell Martin has the Dodgers only HR. Hamels faced LA twice in the regular season and gave up 2 R and 5 H in 7 IP both times. The Dodgers were 31-21 vs. LHP this year; 53-57 vs. RHP.

Lowe down

The Phillies have had very little success vs. Dodgers Game 1 starter Derek Lowe. The Fightins have posted a .598 OPS in 163 PAs. Pedro Feliz (2), Matt Stairs (1) and Chris Coste (1) have the only HRs off Lowe. Chase Utley has 3 doubles and .971 OPS. He's the only regular with an OPS above .775 vs. Lowe.

Manny and LA

Much has been made of Manny Ramirez's impact on the Dodgers. Here are some numbers to consider:

LA hit 74 HR in 108 G prior to Manny's arrival; 63 HR in 54 G after. (Manny had 17 of them.)

The Dodgers' pre-Manny OPS was .697. Post-Manny .798.

Manny's OPS was 1.093 batting in the No. 4 spot. It was 1.367 in the No. 3 spot, which is where he ended the season.

Andre Ethier posted a 1.082 OPS after Manny's arrival. He was at .781 prior. He had a 1.251 OPS hitting in front of Manny in the No. 2 spot.

James Loney, conversely, had a rather poor .697 OPS after Manny's arrival. He was at .810 prior. Matt Kemp had a .768 OPS after Manny. Casey Blake was .753.

It seems Ethier most benefited from Manny. Of course, the Dodgers didn't have Rafael Furcal when Manny arrived. Furcal + a hot Ethier + Manny = trouble. But if the Phils can neutralize that part of the lineup, they have a good chance.

Phillies vs. Brewers

Thoughts looking ahead, as well as back, in the Phil-Brewers series.

Even with yesterday's victory, the presence of C.C. Sabathia makes Milwaukee scary. Sabathia will get 2 starts, which means the Phils need to steal a win today or go 2-0 in Milwaukee to end the series. I don't think you want to go to Game 5 and have to be Sabathia.

I would have started Jamie Moyer today because I think he'd be a tricky followup to Cole Hamels. I'm guessing Brett Myers gets the nod because Charlie Manuel wants him to start at home. This makes sense given that Myers has yielded only 7 ER in 44.1 IP at the Zen since his return from the minors. That's a 1.42 ERA and even includes his rather poor final start. Also, Myers tossed a 2-hit complete game, giving up 1 run, against the Brewers in Philly on September 14. Moyer, with his experience and poise, might be better suited for the road start, I suppose.

Manuel made the right move bringing in Brad Lidge in the 9th yesterday. The Brewers had the top of the order coming up and there was no sense taking a chance on Hamels getting into trouble. Some thought Manuel was dumb for taking out Hamels the way he pitched, but Manuel would have let far dumber if he let that game get away while his 41-for-41 reliever stood in the bullpen. Sure, Lidge made the Phils sweat, but it was the right move.

Chase Utley's double would have been an error on Mike Cameron if I was the official scorer.

Sabathia hasn't faced the Phils. If Philly fans want a reason to be optimistic, Sabathia's worst outings in the NL came against the Cubs, who were the only team to score more runs than the Phils this season.

Thud

Good to see the Tigers playing with pride. Let's see, 1 win in the last 12 games and a move into the AL Central cellar behind KC. It's been a year to remember, but not for the reasons everyone (most everyone) predicted at the beginning of the season. Never could I have thought it would be this bad.

Never did the Tigers get higher than 3 games over .500. They were 15-24 in 1-run games. They lost 18 of 82 games in which they entered the 8th inning either with the lead or tied. (By comparison, KC lost 13 of 79). They were shutout 12 times (including last night) and yet managed to score 19 runs in a game three separate times! After Miguel Cabrera (125) and Magglio Ordonez (98), Curtis Granderson is third on the team with 61 RBI. Armando Galarraga ended up the ace of the staff.

Oh, the horror.

The end of the ride

Todd Jones, aka Roller-Coaster, announced his retirement, and kept his sense of humor.

“So this is it,” Jones wrote in his most recent Sporting News column. “If you’re a Tigers fan, I’ll never stress you out again. If you’re not a Tigers fan, you’ll never have me as your ace in the hole, convinced I’ll blow a lead against your team.”

Jones finished his career ranked No. 14 in saves, with 319. He ranks No. 1 in Tigers' history, with 235 saves for Detroit.

We wish you well, Jonesy.

Tim the Enchanter

Tim Lincecum is having an amazing season, and aside from a Sports Illustrated cover story, it seems to be largely overlooked.

Lincecum's win percentage is .810 on a team with a .445 win percentage (and the SF bullpen has blown five leads for him). He's got a 2.46 ERA and his ERA+ is 174, well ahead of No. 2 Johan Santana at 155. The only NL pitchers over the last 40 years to lead the NL with a better mark are Roger Clemens, Jason Schmidt, Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, Kevin Brown, Pedro Martinez, Dwight Gooden, Nolan Ryan, Tom Seaver, Steve Carlton, and Bob Gibson.

His splits are incredible. Against RHB, Lincecum is .222/.289/.332 while against LHB he's .219/.299/.292. His BABIP is around .300 against both righties and lefties, which indicates his numbers are legit, not a fluke.

With men on base, he's .190/.243/.268 and with RISP he's .163/.234/.261. With a man on third and less than 2 outs, he's .125/.225/.156. Talk about rising to the occasion.

The third time (or more) through the batting order, he's .209/.292/.309.

Consider, Santana is .228/.277/.338 his first time through the order and .280/.332/.441 the third time (or more) through. Brandon Webb's splits for those situations are .205/.251/.260 and .263/.338/.386.

Lincecum, for the record, is .193/.261/.293 his first time through the order. Now, look again at his figures for the third time through. You don't solve a problem like Tim.

He's got 243 K in 215.2 IP.

To me, he's the NL Cy Young Award winner. It will be interesting.

Just so you know

Tonight is the final game ever at Yankee Stadium. In case you hadn't heard.

I'm sorry Ryan

Upon further review, I was too hard on Ryan Howard. I'm still not sure I would vote him MVP, but I can make a much better argument for him now.

Howard's low OPS can be mostly attributed to his lack of production with the bases empty. Howard is .192/.275/.440 with no one aboard. His BABIP is .212, which probably is a result of "the shift." With men on base, Howard's numbers are .306/.395/.637.

He has nearly the same number of PAs in both situations. But he has 20 fewer Ks with men on base, plus 10 more walks.

With RISP, Howard is .315/.436/.571.
With RISP and 2 outs, Howard is .318/.453/.541.

And he's been off the charts good the past month.

Overall, he's got 87 H and 115 RBI with men on base.

Is it enough to be awesome for only half the game and pretty much dreadful otherwise? Albert Pujols' OPS is the same whether the bases are empty or there are runners on base -- 1.104.

Everything's gonna be all right

If you're wondering why I haven't posted anything in a while, I assure you I have a very good excuse. Things had been going so well for the Mets since I last posted that I didn't want to do anything to jinx them. But now that the team's fortunes have taken a bit of a downturn in the last few days, I thought I'd come back and try to talk Mets fans off the ledge. With fourteen games left to play, the Mets have a one and a half game lead over the Phillies and a fanbase and media eager to remind them of last year's collapse. Instead of joining the chorus of naysayers, I will now give several reasons why September 2008 will not be a repeat of September 2007.

Johan Santana. In September 2007, the only Met starters with ERAs under 4.5 were Pedro Marintez at 2.57 and Oliver Perez at 4.45 and neither of them averaged even six innings per start. Tom Glavine, John Maine and Orlando Hernandez all had terrible months, Mike Pelfrey was still pitching like the 2007 Mike Pelfey and guys like Brian Lawrence and Philip Humber got key starts with disastrous results. This September, Santana has pitched 20.1 innings in three starts with a 2.66 ERA, 20 strikeouts and only six walks and one home run allowed. The 2.66 ERA is actually the highest he's had in any month since May and he's been averaging more than six innings per start all season long. Overall Met starters aren't having a great month, posting a 4.90 ERA in September, but both Jonathon Niese and Oliver Perez pitched well this weekend and Santana gives the team something they didn't have last year. He is someone they can depend on to go out every five days and pitch well deep into the game. That's not enough to seal up the division, but it should be a big help in avoiding the five-game losing streaks that befell the team twice last September.

Guillermo Mota. Guillermo Mota is pitching for the Milwaukee Brewers right now, which has been and should continue to be a big help to the Mets' bullpen. The 2007 Mets' pen ranked high on the list of reasons for the collapse, well ahead of the offense, posting an ERA of 4.40 in the second half an 4.63 in September after a 3.67 first half. This year they had another good first half at 3.81 and bad second half at 4.86, but they've turned things around with a 3.03 ERA 30:14 K:BB ratio and just 29 hits and three home runs in 35.2 innings. Sure, they blew two run leads with two innings to go in two of the last three games, but overall they've been dependable. Luis Ayala shouldn't be given too long of a leash as closer, but he has been solid with a 9:1 K:BB ratio and only one home run allowed in thirteen innings.

Daniel Murphy. The young infielder-turned-outfielder is hitting .360/.442/.528 in 89 at bats with the Mets and he is just the best example of a group of young players who are making an impact for the Mets in this pennant race. There's Jonathon Niese, who pitched eight shutout innings on Saturday. There's Nick Evans, who is mashing lefties to the tune of .338/.386/.508. These are the sort of players who would have been left to rot on Willie Randolph's bench. While I haven't agreed with every decision made during the Jerry Manuel regime, he has shown more willingness to play young, unproven rookies in important roles than Willie ever did and the team has benefited greatly from it.

Fernando Tatis. Thirty-three year old Fernando Tatis, who had all of 56 major league at bats from 2004 to 2007 is hitting .301/.375/.489 for the Mets this year. This continues to be ridiculous. I was genuinely surprised when he didn't hit a game-tying three-run home run in the ninth inning on Sunday. If Mr. Two Grand Slams In One Inning can hit .300 with walks and power in 2008, how can the Mets not win the division?

It's not going to be easy. The Mets have a slightly tougher schedule than the Phillies the rest of the way as the Mets have to play the Cubs four times while the Phillies have only the Marlins, Braves and Nationals standing in their way. But while they may have the best record in the league, the next time the Chicago Cubs are a force to be reckoned with in September would be the first. Fourteen games remain and the Mets' magic number sits at thirteen. Good thing I'm not superstitious.

NL MVP

Surprisingly, many talking heads ARE putting Albert Pujols at the top of the MVP discussion. This is good. Unfortunately, I've also heard the names Carlos Delgado, Ryan Howard, and Ryan Braun tossed around. This is bad.

Delgado is understandable because of his second-half surge. But when measured by win shares, Carlos Beltran is the Mets' main man, followed closely by Jose Reyes.

Ryan Howard? Sure, he's got tons of dingers and RBI, but he has been lacking. It's hard to imagine calling someone with 42 HR and 126 RBI lacking, but it's true. He's got half the win shares of Lance Berkman, who leads the NL. Pujols is second, followed by Beltran. Howard's OPS is .845, which ranks between Mark DeRosa and Troy Glaus in the NL. His slugging percentage is tied for 17th in the league. You cannot discount he's driven in 126 runs, but given his opportunities, you get the feeling those numbers should be even better. Howard's RC/27 ranks 33rd in the NL, between Adam LaRoche and Cody Ross.

Keeping it close

I remember when the Tigers got off to their woeful start to the campaign all the commentators said the most important thing was for Detroit to stay close to Cleveland. That was all they needed to worry about because that was the team to beat in the division. Well, the Tigs are just 1 GB the Tribe as we head down the stretch! I can't wait to see the conclusion of this exciting race!

Prince Albert

I'm going to guess it's unlikely Albert Pujols wins this year's MVP Award in the NL, but as of right now, the man stands alone offensively. Pujols is batting .348/.456/.613 this season. He has 26 HR and 79 RBI and 77 R. He's got 82 BB and 44 K. (Aside from his rookie year, the man has never fanned more than 69 times in a season.)

His HR-RBI-R lines will probably prevent the MVP. But his OPS+ of 181 leads the NL and is the second best of his career. His 1.069 OPS leads the NL while he is also No. 1 in runs created, adjusted batting runs, batting wins, offensive win percentage, and times on base. His 28 intentional walks is double that of No. 2 Prince Fielder.

Now, I'll admit I don't know how some of those above-mentioned categories are calculated, but I'm relatively sure that leading in all of them is pretty darn good. Pujols is second to Lance Berkman in win shares, at least according to Hardball Times.

Not to mention he is arguably the best defensive 1B in the NL.

All with a bad elbow.

Fair trade

Catching up with the players in the Tigers-Yankee deal:

Pudge Rodriguez is batting .229/.270/.343 in 35 AB in pinstripes. His OPS+ is 62. And from what was said on talk radio this morning, Mike Mussina and Andy Pettitte don't want to pitch to him.

Kyle Farnsworth has appeared in 7 games. He has a 7.36 ERA and no record. His ERA+ is 59.

Hard to find a more balanced deal.

Brandon Inge, who took over the catching duties upon Pudge's departure, is batting .211/.333/.423 in 71 AB since the trade.

Doing it right -- all wrong

Comcast did a good job being ready for Jimmy Rollins' first AB in Philly since his flap about the fans being "front-runners." Then, as Jimmy was preparing to be announced and head to the plate, the network played an interview with Rollins about the controversy. So instead of hearing the crowd's reaction, which presumably was the reason Comcast made a point to air this portion of the game, you had Jimmy's voice over pictures of the crowd. By the time Jimmy's interview ended, he was in the box and the crowd was mostly silent. Harry Kalas then was left to describe the crowd's reaction. Brilliant work! Maybe the producers used to work for the Outdoor Life Network.

No Mora

Melvin Mora probably never wants to leave Detroit after his weekend in Motown. Mora went 10-for-13 with 3 HR and 10 RBI in three games. He also had 2 doubles, a triple and 6 R. He walked twice, had a sacrifice fly, and no strikeouts.

Mora is one of those often underappreciated hitters. He could have been the MVP in 2004 when his OPS+ was 155 and he batted .340-27-104 with 111 R. He finished 18th in the MVP balloting despite an OPS that was fifth best in the AL. He was second in batting and first in OBP. He was fifth in slugging. His OPS+ was third best and he led the AL in offensive win percentage.

Lifetime, Mora has a 1.056 OPS at Comerica Park and he's got a .978 OPS against Detroit overall. That's his best career mark against any AL foe.

Fortunately, his outburst over the weekend did little to kill the Tigers' postseason hopes. It was Mora twist of the knife.

I got Jimmy's back

I've never been a huge fan of Jimmy Rollins, until now. His whole flap over the fans in Philly has put me forever in his corner simply for 1) stating the truth, and 2) refusing to back away from his comments with a response that he was misunderstood or sorry if he offended anyone.

I had many things to say on this subject, but Rich Hofmann addresses them all, and thoughtfully. Read here.