Hello, Joe

So, it turns out the Yankees will spurn Steinbrenner's golden child, Don Mattingly, in favor of Joe Girardi as their next manager. Another Yankees legend burned. Maybe they figure hiring another Joe will make people forget it's not Torre.

Tigers score as offseason begins

The Tigers traded for SS Edgar Renteria, giving up two top prospects, and served notice they are not going to sit around and hope 2008 is better than 2007. Renteria's arrival is an upgrade defensively over Carlos Guillen, who will play first base next season. Plus, Renteria hit .332 in 2007 and had the third highest OPS among NL shortstops behind Hanley Ramirez and Jimmy Rollins.

Detroit gave up highly regarded CF Gorkys Hernandez, but with Curtis Granderson already in center and another more highly regarded prospect in Cameron Maybin waiting in the wings, Hernandez was dealable.

The other player in the deal was SP Jair Jurrgens, who pitched well in seven starts for Detroit and seems to be regarded as a No. 2 or No. 3 starter. Again, the Tigers dealt from a position of strength, at least if you figure Andrew Miller fulfills his potential.

No doubt, Atlanta got two very good prospects and filled its own needs, especially with Andruw Jones pending departure via free agency.

This is a deal the Tigers had to make regardless of how good Hernandez and Jurrgens end up.

Here's what the trade means to the Tigers lineup since Renteria essentially takes the place of Sean Casey: Renteria batted .332/.390/.470 in 494 AB; Casey hit .296/.353/.393 in 453 AB. This now gives Detroit 3 of the top 6 hitters (in BA) in 2007 -- Magglio Ordonez, Placido Polanco and Renteria.

It also means Pudge Rodriguez drops a spot lower in the order. He could drop farther if the Tigers sign Geoff Jenkins to play LF, which is one of the rumors floating around. Jenkins certainly would be another worthwhile addition because he provides some lefty power.

As much young talent as the Tigers have, they must play to win now because Pudge, Guillen, Maggs, Polly, and Gary Sheffield aren't getting any younger and have had injury issues. The time is now, and GM Dave Dombrowski is acting accordingly.

Grounded

I hate to pick a team coming off a long break to win the World Series because I think it’s a tough task. But it would not be a shock if Colorado upends Boston. It sure would have been nice to see this series without this ridiculous layoff for the Rockies.

Here is something to consider, especially given the fact these games will be played in two hitter-friendly stadiums. Colorado’s pitching staff was second best in MLB in groundout/flyout ratio (1.39) while Boston’s was tied for 21st (1.09). Lineups do far less damage hitting balls on the ground. This perhaps takes greater importance given Colorado’s extremely good defense.

Boston and Colorado met for 3 games this year, so this isn’t a significant sample, but the Red Sox posted their lowest slugging percentage against any team in MLB vs. the Rockies (.327).

Game 1 means nothing if Colorado loses, but it's huge if they win. That's the attitude Colorado should bring to the dance. It's almost like when they faced Webb in the opener of the Arizona series.

Rockies in 7.

Donnie Baseball

Reports indicate that Don Mattingly will be the next Yankees manager.

Sure, he doesn't have any managerial experience, but he does have all those World Series appearances to draw upon as he looks to lead NY to the promised land.

Oh, I mean playoff experiences.

Oh, nevermind.

Next Yankees manager: Failure

I don't know who will manage the Yanks next season, but I have to believe they're pretty much ripe for failure. In truth, leaving NY now is the best thing that could have happened to Joe Torre. He leaves a hero.

New York is heading into a transition period. In all honesty, it was probably as natural a time to break with Torre as any. The championship core is aging and/or will be leaving via free agency. The Yanks could look very different as soon as next year, but definitely by 2009. It might be unlikely, but it's possible NY is without A-Rod, Posada, Abreu, Pettitte and Rivera next season.

Hopefully, struggles await the Yankees. I believe that could be quite possible.

Joe says goodbye

Joe Torre turned down the Yankees' 1-year offer today. But here is the great thing about our Internet age -- the ability to get stories wrong and send them worldwide in an instant.

I did a Google News search on Torre and found this story, which was listed as being posted "one hour ago" at around 5 p.m. EDT. The headline read: Torre back as Yankees skipper. It was put out by Sports Network and stated, "Joe Torre will return to manage the New York Yankees in 2008. The Newark Star Ledger is reporting that Torre is in Tampa, Florida to finalize the deal and the team will make it official with a Thursday afternoon conference call."

Then I noticed the story above it was posted "56 minutes ago," and it was an Associated Press bulletin that said: "Joe Torre has rejected an offer for a one-year deal to return as the New York Yankees manager."

What a difference four minutes can make.

I remember attending a journalism conference where Pete Hamill was the guest speaker. He was discussing the way 24-hour news and the Internet changed reporting. He basically implored people to remember, it's not as important to get the story first as it is to get it right.

Third is not first among problems

There's a lot of talk about the Phillies' need for a 3B. It is true that Wes Helms and Greg Dobbs do not remind anyone of Brooks Robinson (aside from being white) at the hot corner. Helms, Dobbs and the departed Abraham Nunez commited 25 errors in 2007. They combined to form the worst offensive/defensive 3B in the NL. Ryan Braun also commited 25 Es, but he batted .324-34-97 to help offset it.

One name that popped up today was Garrett Atkins. I have no idea why Colorado would trade him, and I have no idea what the Phils could possibly offer. If the Phils can get him, they should do so. Otherwise, I think they need to stop worrying so much about 3B. They've got power everywhere else in the infield, so they don't need a power bat, even though 3B is traditionally a power spot.

I'd take a shot at free agent Pedro Feliz and if that failed, ride it out. If anything, the Phils should make a minor deal to get a good fielder at 3B and not worry about the offense. They really need to be concentrating on the pitching and outfield situation. Those are bigger worries, in my mind.

Who Am I?

With last night's 7-3 victory over the Red Sox, Tribe starting pitcher Paul Byrd became only the 2nd pitcher in history to record post-season victories over both the Red Sox and Yankees in the same post-season.

I am the first.

Garko the Graceful

In the 2nd inning of last night's Game 3 tilt twixt the Red Sox and Indians, Tribe 1st baseman Ryan Garko committed a fielding error with runners on 1st and 2nd and none out.

The blunder started simply enough with a ground ball bouncing off the heel of Garko's glove and caroming off towards second base. It was the finish, however, that I laud in this post. In an effort to recover the baseball, Garko executed a piece of footwork that landed him on his backside. I am unable to describe the move with any additional detail, except to say it was presidential (in the tradition of President Gerald R. Ford).

I laughed. Til I cried. It is my favorite play of the 2007 postseason.

The AL pick

The Red Sox won the season series, 5-2, but they haven't played since the end of July. Yet this might foreshadow what the ALCS could be all about: Daisuke Matsuzaka went 7 to beat C.C. Sabathia, who also went 7 innings, 1-0 on July 24. The next day, Fausto Carmona went 8 in outdueling Josh Beckett, who also went 8 innings, 1-0.

I give Boston slight edges across the board in pitching, hitting and defense. The Sox also have experience on their side. Cleveland does, however, have the gnats, which already have proven an equalizer.

For the year, Boston had a .806 OPS while its pitching allowed .706, making the Sox +100. Cleveland had a .771 OPS while its pitching yielded .729, making the Tribe +42. If OPS is such a great stat, I figure that means something.

Sox in 6.

The NL pick

I really like Arizona and Colorado in terms of their young talent. Colorado won the season series, 10-8, but we've already seen that doesn't matter much in the playoffs.

If you look at Arizona's offensive numbers, it seems the D-backs do nothing exceptionally well other than be consistent. They hit .250/.321/.417 vs. RHP and .250/.319/.402 vs. LHP. If there is a reason for concern, it might be that they hit only .248/.320/.386 vs. Colorado pitching and batted just .244/.310/.344 at Coors.

Colorado seems to have a young, colorful group. The Rockies batted .281/.355/.443 vs. RHP and .277/.352/.420 vs. LHP. Pretty balanced. They hit .280/.361/.404 vs. the D-Backs, including .282/.365/.401 at Chase Field.

It's remarkable that the D-Backs don't have a .300 hitter (excluding pitcher Micah Owings, who honestly might be the best hitter on the team) or 100-RBI man, and just one player, rookie Chris Young, hit more than 21 HR. They scored 20 fewer runs than they allowed! According to Hardball Times, Arizona should have won 79 games.

Colorado is not only a team that's been on a roll, but I think it's the better team. I'd give the D-Backs a slight edge in starting pitching (only because of Brandon Webb, plus Owings as a hitter), maybe a slight edge in the overall bullpen, too. But I think Colorado is better offensively and defensively.

If Jeff Francis beats Webb in Game 1, the D-Backs are in big trouble. Otherwise, they've got a chance to force a 7-game series. I have no faith in Livan Hernandez. Owings could be the unknown here. He is expected to pitch Game 4, but hasn't thrown in a while because of Arizona's sweep of the Cubs.

Rockies in 7.

Hello, Charlie

The Phils gave manager Charlie Manuel a 2-year contract with a club option for a third year. As a Charlie supporter, I agree with the move.

According to the Associated Press, Manuel is 262-224 in three years in Philadelphia. Among Phillies managers, he reached 250 wins in the fewest games since Pat Moran managed the club from 1915-18.

Of course, there's been a lot of bad baseball in Philadelphia between then and now. And Charlie inherited a pretty decent squad. But I really believe that the people who get so caught up in in-game decisions -- while no doubt important -- are missing the big picture. Give Manuel credit for goodness sake; he lost four-fifths of his starting rotation, two closers, the reigning MVP and potential MVP to injuries at some point during the season and still won 89 games. I'm not saying the man is a genius or one of the game's all-time greats, but c'mon. That stuff doesn't happen by accident.

I've seen Manuel still being criticized for the Kendrick-Lohse move in Game 2 of the playoffs. The prevailing theme is Lohse shouldn't be put into a situation with that much pressure when he's unfamiliar with it. There might be some logic to this, but Lohse had pitched relief previously, and it seems guys get thrust into these situations in the postseason on a fairly regular basis.

No one probably blinked when Joe Torre brought in Mike Mussina with first and third and no outs in Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS against Boston. It was Mussina's first relief appearance of his career. He got a K and DP to end the threat. Yanks won in 11. Aaron Effing Boone.

Glove me

These are the players I think should be rewarded for defense in the AL, by position, based on almost nothing but statistical analysis:

C -- Victor Martinez, CLE
1B - Kevin Youkilis, BOS
2B - Mark Ellis, OAK
SS - Tony Pena, KC
3B - Brandon Inge, DET
LF - Shannon Stewart, OAK
CF - Curtis Granderson, DET
RF - Nick Markakis, BAL

Hello, Pudge

Pudge Rodriguez will return to the Tigers in 2008 as the club announced it has picked up his $13 million option. That's a lot of money, but 1) Detroit figured it wouldn't find a better replacement, and 2) I think ownership feels it owes Pudge for being the catalyst for the team's turnaround.

I think what you'll get from Pudge now is .280-10-65, which hardly seems worthy of $13 million, but it's only $2 million more than Pudge made this season (and Jason Varitek made $11 million for nearly the same production, and worse defense.) Pudge had a tough year behind the plate in 2007, but still managed to throw out 29% of baserunners, which was 4th among AL regulars. Most alarming was his .510 WP/PB per game, 2nd to only Jorge Posado (.530) for worst in AL. Hopefully, that's an aberration and not a trend as Pudge gets up in age.

Goodbye, Joe?

If George Steinbrenner makes good on his threat, Joe Torre managed his final game for the Yankees last night. As much as I despise the Yanks, it's hard to hate Torre. I don't think anyone could have handled the postgame press conference yesterday any better, any classier.

Should the Yanks dismiss Joe, where will he end up? He made it clear he's not ready to quit. Might Philadelphia be a possible landing spot? Frankly, I'm not sure Joe is much different than Charlie Manuel -- only possessing a better vocabulary. But hiring Torre might calm the Charlie haters and make it appear the Phils are taking positive steps to improve in 2008.

I wonder if Torre would want to manage in Philly and be in the same division as Willie Randolph? But Philly would seem like a good fit because it's a team that's ready to win now.

Second guessing

Charlie Manuel is taking a lot of heat for lifting Kyle Kendrick in Game 2 of the playoffs, but I don't think it was a horrible move. Everyone loves Kendrick for being a gamer, and I agree. But down 1-0 in the NLDS didn't give Manuel a chance to let Kendrick gut one out.

Kendrick started two previous games against Colorado and had an ERA of 7.00, WHIP of 2.11, and BAA of .425. Those numbers don't instill confidence, and he wasn't exactly lights out Thursday. Plus, Kendrick was going to face the top of the Rockies' lineup for the third time in Thursday's game when he was lifted. If Kyle Lohse does his job, it's moot.

Lou Piniella is also taking heat for pulling Carlos Zambrano out of Game 1 of the Cubs' series against Arizona. No one is immune.

''When you manage a team, everybody's a manager, what can I tell you? The only thing is the people that write it have a chance to write it after the fact, not during,'' said Piniella.

I think I'm ready to talk about it

You may have seen some Mets fans referring to Sunday's loss as something of a relief, coming as it did on the heels of an often difficult season of baseball to watch. They might have told you that this particular band of New York Mets was somehow unlikable or that the players had "quit" on us, the fans. Maybe they think that the bullpen would have gotten this team slaughtered in October. I am not one of these fans. This hurt.

This past Sunday ranks right with 1999 NLCS Game Six and July 30th, 2004 among the darkest days of my Mets fandom. The fact that the Mets spent the last week of August and the whole month of September blowing chance after chance to put the division away only means the agony was prolonged. The Mets could be playing a playoff game right now if Marlon Anderson had slid a little closer to second base or Billy Wagner could get six outs without giving up three runs. In the end, the Phillies were one game better than the Mets, but the way we reached that conclusion couldn't have been any more painful. The fact that we had to watch the Yankees stage a comeback from sure defeat at the same time didn't help any.

The Mets had a pretty good team this year and chances are they'll have almost exactly the same pretty good team next year. Willie Randolph will be back, but Paul Lo Duca and Shawn Green likely won't be, so Willie will have two fewer chances to choose experience over ability every day as he did so many times this year. The bullpen, a weak point both in September and in terms of Randolph's managerial tactics, will return largely intact. Giving Willie fewer terrible relievers to use in key situations in big games would seem like an easy way to improve this team, but Scott Schoeneweis and Guillermo Mota are both under contract for at least one more year. If Omar Minaya could spend his way to a great bullpen, I'm sure he would and even if he can't, he might try. But relief pitchers are inherently unpredictable and going out to spend a bunch of money on proven veterans is how you wind up giving multi-year deals to the Motas and Schoeneweises of the world.

The Mets are rich, they have reasonable expectations of contending for a division title next year and they're coming off a historic collapse. This seems like a recipe for a wild offseason. But there won't really be many flashy free agents available at positions where the Mets have need, like the starting rotation, or might think they have need, like catcher or right field. So, while I'm sure the next few months will be filled with stories that Omar is about to send every prospect the Mets have or ever will have to Minnesota in exchange for Johan Santana, I think the time between now and Spring Training might turn out to be fairly quiet. Which is a good thing. I could use some time to recover.

(Go Indians!)

Rockies 4, Phils 2

I'm not sure what to make of today's game at the Zen. Cole Hamels pitched like a youngster in his first postseason game for one inning (the 2nd) and pitched like a veteran No. 1 the other frames. Hamels retired 13 in a row at one point and retired Colorado in order in the 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th. He let the Rockies bat around in the 2nd. Odd.

The real story was the lack of production by the Phils, particularly at the top of the order. The 1-4 spots went 0-for-15 with 9 Ks and a GDP. You might attribute some of that to the fact Jeff Francis is a lefty, which theoretically can hamper Utley and Howard a bit (they both SLG more than 100 points lower vs. LHP than RHP), but the Phils roughed up Francis in two meetings this season. I'd say it was a case of the Phils either being flat or pressing, or both.

Colorado won for the 15th time in 16 games. Maybe the Rockies are destiny's darlings. But the Phils are in trouble if they don't win games in which Colorado scores "only" four runs.

Of course, it could just be the SI Jinx.

M-V-P

We'll get the easy lifting out of the way first. As much as it pains me to say it, I think A-Rod will be the AL MVP. There seems to be no way around this fact. According to Hardball Times, he led the league in total win shares with 39 (Maggs was second at 36), win shares above bench with 26 (Maggs 24), runs created with 163 (Maggs 155), OPS with 1.067 (Ortiz 1.066) and VORP (value over replacement player) at 96.6 (Maggs 87.8).

The National League race is, excuse me for sounding like John Sterling, obviously, tougher. David Wright led in total wins shares with 34 (Albert Pujols 32), and win shares above bench with 21 (Pujols 19). Miguel Cabrera led in runs created with 138 (Wright 136). Chipper Jones led in OPS with 1.029 (Prince Fielder 1.013). Hanley Ramirez led in VORP at 89.5 (Wright 81.1).

Of course, none of those players will see the field in October. Notice the two prime candidates now, Jimmy Rollins and Matt Holliday, aren't among the top two in any of those categories.

Holliday led in win shares over Rollins, 30-28, and win shares above bench, 16-13. It should be noted pitchers Jake Peavy and Brandon Webb rated above both with 18 and 17, respectively, and Chase Utley led the Phils with 17.

As for runs created, Holliday led Rollins, 129-122. Both players led their respective teams in that category. Holliday posted a 1.012 OPS while Rollins' was .875. Rollins ranked behind several teammates, but was second among NL shortstops, trailing Ramirez at .948.

I'm not sure what credit Holliday received for creating a run Monday night that he apparently didn't create.

Holliday no doubt will get votes for leading the NL in batting (.340) and RBI (137). Rollins was tops in runs with 139. And Rollins became only the 4th player in history with at least 20 HR, 20 2B, 20 3B and 20 SB in a year. Rollins had 88 extra-base hits, second in history among SS to only A-Rod's 91 in 1996.

I'd say both are worthy. Holliday might lose votes because he plays in Coors Field and because you rarely got to see him play. Rollins might gain votes because of his spring training pronouncement the Phillies were the team to beat and leading the Phils to the NL East title.

If Holliday loses the award, he can join the list of people disappointed with the Mets. The pick here is Rollins, not because I'm 100% sure he deserves it, but because I think that's the way the voters will go. I'd give him the edge because he played 162 games at SS, which is a more demanding position, and fielded well (zero throwing errors, 11 fielding). Holliday is no slouch in LF, but it's not the same.

Then again, I've seen deserving shortstops overlooked before. (No, I'm not still bitter about 1987.)

The Big O

There was an interesting piece on Hardball Times about the greatest most underrated player in history. The author's conclusion is that player is Mel Ott, with shoutouts to Cy Young and Stan Musial. You can read about it here.

All tied up

The Mets woke up Saturday in second place for the first time in more than five months. They did all they could not to stay there for long. The offensive was explosive from the start. John Maine was absolutely brilliant. And with a little help from the Washington Nationals, the Mets are once again tied atop the NL East with one game to play.

Maine's performance was the best by any Mets' starter this year and very nearly the stuff of legend. He walked a batter in the top of the first only to see him erased on a strike 'em out, throw 'em out double play. He retired the next sixteen batters in order before allowing another walk with one out in the seventh. He got the next two batters to end that inning and the first two to start the eighth. At this point his line read seven and two-thirds innings, no hits, two walks and a career-high fourteen strikeouts. He had already thrown over 100 pitches but it looked like nothing would stop him from finishing this game. Then backup catcher Paul Hoover, in his thirty-fourth major league at bat, only in the game because Miguel Olivo was ejected for instigating a bench-clearing fracas in the fifth inning, hit a weak little dribbler down the third base line. David Wright charged and barehanded it, but there was nothing he could do. For the 7311th consecutive game, a Mets starter failed to pitch a no hitter. Still, it was a tremendous performance by Maine and he deserved every bit of the standing ovation he received as he walked to the dugout with two outs in the eighth.

Of course, the Mets' offense gave Maine a bit of breathing room right from the start. They scored twice in the first and at least once in every inning but the fourth. In total, they put up thirteen runs on nineteen hits and four walks. Lastings Milledge had three hits including two home runs. Ramon Castro had two hits with a longball of his own. It makes one wonder what the division standings might look like if these two hadn't been banished to the bench for the past week. Luis Castillo and David Wright each had three hits and two of Castillo's were doubles. Maine was the only New York starter without a hit, but he did draw a walk and score a run. Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran were the only other starters without at least two hits. Quite often this month the Mets have gotten great offensive production only for the pitching to fail them anyway. A couple of times they got good pitching but the offense dried up. This time both came through in an absolutely crucial game. Hopefully there's a little left in the tank for tomorrow.

It'll be Tom Glavine vs. Dontrelle Willis with the season on the line for the Mets. Willis has not had a good season, but he's been solid in his last couple of starts. Glavine, meanwhile, allowed ten runs in ten innings his last two times out. By Sunday night the Mets could be anything from outright division champs to part of a four-way tie with the Phillies, Padres and Rockies. All they can do is win. We'll worry about Monday (and Tuesday and Wednesday) when we have to.

Ya gotta believe

What else can ya do?

The Mets lost again, this time to the the last place Florida Marlins, while the Phillies beat the Nationals to claim sole possession of first place in the National League East. For the first time since the thirteenth of May, the Mets are not in first place. They have lost eight straight home games and now need help to even manage a tie for the division lead.

Oliver Perez was excellent against the Marlins last Saturday, but this time he was not nearly as sharp. He allowed six runs in three and two-thirds innings on six hits, two walks and three hit batsmen. All three of those occurred in third inning, including two with the bases loaded. Overall, Perez has had a very good season, but he failed to come up big tonight and it cost the Mets the division lead.

The offense did not have a great night either, but at least they improved over Thursday's performance by putting four runs on the board. David Wright, Carlos Delgado and Shawn Green each had two hits while Luis Castillo had three. Carlos Beltran hit his thirty-third home run of the season. The team had its chances to put more runs on the board, though. In the seventh inning, the Mets had two runners on and only one out but failed to score. In the fourth and sixth innings, the Mets had runners on base with the pitcher scheduled to bat. Willie Randolph chose to use his two worst pinch hitters, David Newhan and Jeff Conine, in these situations. Newhan grounded into a double play and Conine flied out to end the inning. Ruben Gotay also failed to get a hit with a runner on later in the game, but Lastings Milledge and Endy Chavez never stepped into the batter's box. Paul Lo Duca left the game in the ninth inning, having apparently injured his left knee earlier in the game, but he did manage to waste one at bat while clearly in pain. I guess part of being a leader is staying in the game when you're clearly not helping in order to look like a tough guy.

All the Mets can do now is win their two remaining games and hope the Phillies don't do the same. Saturday afternoon John Maine will take on Chris Seddon. The Mets scored two runs in five innings against Seddon on Sunday and wound up winning the game. Maine gave up three runs in five innings and got a no decision in that game. This seems like a good matchup for the Mets, but that could have been said about so many games this week that the Mets wound up losing.

Things look bleak, but the Mets franchise has overcome worse. In 1999 the Mets trailed the Wild Card-leading Reds by two games with just three to play. That team came back to tie and then won a one-game playoff in Cincinnati. If the Mets earn a tie this year, there won't be any Al Leiter rested and ready to pitch on Monday. But that doesn't matter now. All the Mets can do now is win tomorrow's game. Anything less is unacceptable.

It'll all be over soon

The Mets got a well-pitched game for the first time in ages (or five days) but it was not enough as they were shut out by Joel Piñeiro. As a result of this and the Phillies' 6-4 win over the Braves, they are now tied atop the NL East and one game behind the Padres in the NL Wild Card race. The Mets still control their own destiny as all they have to do is win all of their remaining games to win the division. The only problem is that now one of those games might take place on Monday in Philadelphia.

Pedro Martinez was not perfect, but he was very good. A Luis Castillo error allowed a run to score and forced Pedro to throw 25 pitches in the first inning. But he moved past that and got through seven innings on 105 pitches, allowing a total of three runs on seven hits and one walk with eight strikeouts. He allowed two doubles to Albert Pujols, one of which drove in a run, but got the only threat in the Cardinals' lineup to fly out with two on and two out in the seventh. Aaron Heilman and Pedro Feliciano each pitched a scoreless inning in relief.

Unfortunately, the Met bats chose this night to make Joel Piñeiro look like Johan Santana. They managed just three hits and one walk in eight innings against the man who entered the game with a 4.50 ERA and hadn't pitched as many as eight shutout innings in a game since July 26, 2003. David Wright doubled in the first and walked in the fourth, never advancing past second base. Carlos Delgado led off the fifth with a single only to be erased by the inevitable Paul Lo Duca double play. Shawn Green followed this with an infield single, but Pedro couldn't keep the inning alive and the Mets' offense was done for the evening.

This role reversal was astounding and at the same time completely unsurprising. If the Mets (87-72) have done anything consistently this year, it's been finding ways to lose games they should win. They've got three more of those on the schedule with the Marlins (69-90) coming to town having lost three straight to the Mets last weekend. Oliver Perez (15-9, 3.32), John Maine (14-10, 4.07) and Tom Glavine (13-7, 4.14) will take the mound for New York against Byung-Hyun Kim (9-8, 6.11), Chris Seddon (0-1, 6.89) and Dontrelle Willis (10-15, 5.20). It all comes down to this. If the Mets can't wake up against the last-place Marlins, they will be remembered forever as chokers. And rightly so.

It is not easy to type from the fetal position

I don't know why I even care if the Mets make the playoffs. There's no way they could go anywhere with pitching this astonishingly atrocious. Thirty-two runs allowed in three games to the Washington Nationals in this series. Fifty-seven runs allowed in six games in the last two series. To the Washington Nationals.

Four games left. One game up. Tomorrow it's one game against the Cardinals. Pedro vs. Joel Piñeiro. If Pedro can't save us, no one can.

So close and yet so far

Nothing comes easy for these Mets. This week they scored fifty runs in seven games and barely managed to escape with four wins. They allowed 47 runs, 19 of which were scored against the bullpen. They led in each of the three losses and nearly blew a fourth on Sunday. But an extra-inning win left them with a 2.5 game lead and a magic number of 5 with seven games to play. All seven are at home and against sub-.500 teams, so missing the playoffs at this point should not be easy. Still, nothing this team might do would shock me.

David Wright continued to play like a player who is more valuable than any other player you might name, hitting .452/.486/.613 this week and driving in Sunday's game-winning run in the eleventh. His continued excellence is all the more important given than neither Jose Reyes nor Carlos Beltran did much with the bat this week and Carlos Delgado only returned from injury on Friday.
Wright did have some help, though, as Moises Alou continued to prove that if he's healthy enough to step on to the field, he will hit. This week he hit .414/.469/.483 and extended his hitting streak to a team-record 27 games. Somewhat more surprisingly, Shawn Green and Paul Lo Duca combined to go 18-for-36 this week with three home runs and four doubles. Green is actually hitting .396/.491/.604 for the month of September, his best month in terms of OPS since June of 2002, which was his last year as a serious power hitter. Lo Duca is also having quite a month at .324/.316/.574, but it was still nice to see Ramon Castro finally return and homer in Saturday's game.

The Mets needed every bit of that offense as only one starting pitcher lasted more than five innings in a game this week and the bullpen was no help. Aside from Oliver Perez's terrific eight-inning, two-run, eight-strikeout, no-walk performance on Saturday, every starter struggled. Brian Lawrence pitched so badly on Monday that he got designated for assignment despite the fact that the AAA season is over and thus there isn't anywhere to assign him to. John Maine gave up eleven runs in 9.1 innings over two starts, though the second one was definitely an improvement over the first. Tom Glavine and Pedro Martinez each gave up four runs in five innings, though only three of Pedro's were earned and he did strike out seven. The Marlins' offense is one of the best in the game and I'll still take my chances with Pedro and Glavine against anyone in October, but asking the Mets' bullpen to pitch 26.1 innings this week was a bit much.

Of those nineteen runs they allowed, seventeen were earned, adding up to a 5.84 ERA. Guillermo Mota somehow pitched 4.1 innings without allowing a run, but everyone else had a rough week. Billy Wagner only pitched twice and he gave up a run both times. Aaron Heilman pitched in five of seven games and was doing fine until Sunday when he gave up two runs on two hits and two walks in one inning. Perez's great start on Saturday gave most of the bullpen a rest, but for some reason Heilman had to pitch to preserve a five-run lead in the ninth. That didn't work out too well on Sunday when the Mets wound up using eight different relievers. Pedro Feliciano is supposed to be the third good reliever in this bullpen, but this week he gave up three runs in two innings on four hits and two walks. This pen might not be any good even if it is well-rested, but it sure would be nice if a few starters pitched at least seven innings this week. With Mike Pelfrey and Philip Humber scheduled to start two of the next three games, that may be asking a lot.

The week will start with the Mets (87-68) hosting those pesky Nationals (69-87) for three games. Pelfrey (3-7, 5.24), Glavine (13-6, 3.97) and Humber (0-0, 3.00) will face Matt Chico (5-9, 4.74), Jason Bergmann (5-5, 4.30) and Shawn Hill (4-5, 3.42). The Mets nearly have a second straight division title in their grasp, but as this season has proven time and time again, it ain't over 'til it's over.

Weighing in on 5 ways

In March I provided 5 simple ways the Tigers could be better/worse than 2006. Let's do a quick review.

For better, the 5 simple ways were:

1. Sheffield wears out pitchers. OUTCOME: After a slow April, he did, when healthy.

2. Maroth makes successful return from elbow surgery. OUTCOME: Successful enough to pitch, not enough to stay in Detroit.

3. Granderson blossoms into top leadoff man. OUTCOME: That, and more.

4. Bonderman ascends to ace status. OUTCOME: Maybe we meant to say Verlander?

5. Casey in clubhouse and lineup for full season. OUTCOME: Great presence, sporadic stick.

For worse, the 5 simple ways were:

1. Sheffield wears out welcome. OUTCOME: He did, but only in NY.

2. Rogers, Jones, Pudge, Casey, Mesa, Sheff all start to feel their age. OUTCOME: Mixed bag; Mesa didn't make it out of April and Rogers and Sheff battled injuries.

3. Inge and Monroe don’t come near duplicating 2006. OUTCOME: Monroe was sent out of town and Inge, for the most part, struggled with the bat.

4. Injuries. OUTCOME: Wounded included Kenny Rogers, Joel Zumaya, Fernando Rodney, Gary Sheffield, Nate Robertson, Jeremy Bonderman. Nuff said.

5. Leyland loses magic touch. OUTCOME: Kept banged up team with mediocre bullpen in race until final week.

Star arrival

As DTFT readers know, Curtis Granderson was long touted here as a star in the making. Today, Sports Illustrated arrived with a glowing feature about Granderson and what a great player, and guys, he is. Hooray. There is no one more fun to watch leaving the batter's box than Granderson. I hope it continues.

Ch-ch-ch-changes

No matter what happens the last handful of games, the Tigers will have a number of decisions to make entering next year.

Kenny Rogers and Todd Jones are at the end of their deals. I think Rogers should be signed again, as long as the price is right and he can overcome the injury trouble that doomed his season, and probably Detroit's, this year. Jones is a roller-coaster ride, but another year wouldn't be the worst thing. There are very few top-shelf, worry-free relievers out there. And Zumaya isn't ready.

All reports point to Carlos Guillen moving to first base, ending the term of The Mayor. It would be sad to see Casey go simply because he's a great guy and busts it every night, but there's no question Guillen's bat is a huge upgrade. It seems Ramon Santiago would be the SS. He can't hit a lick, but is a very good glove man. He'd better be. Jim Leyland loves defense up the middle.

Brandon Inge just signed a long-term deal, so he would seem safe at 3B -- unless the Tigers might consider moving him to LF? I haven't heard anything about a move, but Inge has played CF, so why not consider it. I hope not, because I love Inge's D at 3B. But it might be easier to sign a 3B than OF. Mike Lowell would be a possibility, although he might demand a big-money contract off this season, and I'd be worried because he's 33.

Some of this also depends on what the future holds for Ryan Raburn and Cameron Maybin. If Maybin is going to be in the Show next season, will it be in LF or CF? I would hope Curtis Granderson's historic season and strong play in CF will merit leaving him alone.

Here's a look at the list of potential free agents I found.

The final nail

That's what Jhonny Peralta drove into the Tigers' coffin last night, I fear. Cleveland feels the magic, much like Detroit did last season. The Indians have won 18 of their last 23.

Detroit's bullpen, in this case Joel Zumaya, failed again. Zumaya was pitching for the third consecutive day for the first time in his short career. These numbers tell a story: The Indians have converted 78% of their save chances (42 of 54) while the Tigs have converted 67% (43 of 64). That's 7 more blown saves than last season. What would 7 games mean to Detroit right about now?

Sure, the Tigs could get white hot and win 9 of 11, but even then they would need a lot of help to reach the postseason. Nonetheless, it's hard to complain when a team keeps you interested into the final two weeks. It's just tough to look back on all those missed chances.

Wake Me Up When September Ends

The Mets' play against the Phillies recently has been nothing short of embarrassing. The bullpen has been awful. The defense has been sloppy. The offense has been shut down by some very ordinary pitchers. Thinking rationally, it is obvious that the Mets are not this bad and the Phillies are not this good. But right now I would rather these two teams didn't meet in the NLCS.

The bullpen, which so spectacularly failed the Mets a couple weeks back in Philadelphia, took the loss in all three of this weekend's games. On Friday and Saturday, the Mets got excellent starting pitching, including six brilliant innings from Pedro Martinez on Saturday. But the bullpen wasted little time in giving those games away and when the Mets overcame a poor start from Oliver Perez on Sunday to put tie the game at five, the bullpen blew that, too. Altogether, Met relievers pitched 8.2 innings in this series, allowing ten runs (eight earned) on six hits, eight walks and two home runs. Last year the Mets' bullpen was among the best in the game. This year many of the names are the same, but the results have been very different. The starting rotation is better this year than last year, perhaps a lot better by the time October rolls around. But if the 'pen continues to perform as they have recently, that may not matter. And if Guillermo Mota makes the postseason roster, someone should probably be fired.

The defense, another apparent strength of this team, completely let them down in this series. Three unearned runs were scored and a total of eight errors committed, including six in Sunday's debacle of a game. Errors by people like Paul Lo Duca, Shawn Green and Jeff Conine aren't surprising. But Jose Reyes's two errors on Sunday just seemed like a continuation of the overall decline in his game. Even if he hadn't been charged with an error in a long time, he hasn't looked nearly as sharp lately as he did early in the season. This is also true offensively, where the line drives and walks of the first half have been replaced by a lot of pop flies. The Mets have been beating teams other than the Phillies pretty often lately, but if that's going to keep up for another month and a half, Reyes needs to get back on track.

Offensively, this series closely resembled the one in Philadelphia with the Mets' bats being held in check by pitchers they should really have pounded. They finally got to Adam Eaton on Sunday, but eleven runs in three games is pretty sad against the Phillies' staff. David Wright did hit his thirtieth home run of the season to become the third 30/30 man in Mets' history, but that was the only real offensive highlight. The lineup just has a black hole in the sixth and seventh spot right now with Shawn Green and Paul Lo Duca back-to-back most days. When Conine plays first, things don't get any better. These spots went one for twenty with three walks in this series. Carlos Delgado's return doesn't appear to be imminent, but all indications are that Ramon Castro is healthy enough to play. Hopefully he'll be back on the roster and in the lineup very soon.

The Mets (83-65) now lead the division by just 3.5 games, but their schedule is about to get a lot easier. They don't have a day off for the rest of the month, but they only have one day on which they play a team other than the Marlins (65-84) or the Nationals (66-83) and that one day will see them take on the Cardinals (70-78). The Mets are 20-9 against these teams so far this year. The leisurely stroll to October begins Monday in Washington. The Mets will send Brian Lawrence (1-2, 6.31), John Maine (14-9, 3.72) and Mike Pelfrey (2-7, 5.23) to the mound against Tim Redding (3-5, 3.45), Joel Hanrahan (4-3, 5.83) and Matt Chico (5-8, 4.61).

The skipper speaks

Jim Leyland: "I mean this sincerely, and it sounds crazy: In some ways, I am prouder of this team than the one last year, because nobody packed it in and they busted their butts every day. They've made no excuses, no whining about who we lost. I'm proud of that."

Doing the math

It would seem the playoff hopes for the Tigers have all but faded. Detroit has 15 games remaining and would need to win 12 to reach 92 wins, which is what I thought (probably erroneously) would be necessary to win the Central.

Detroit is 5 behind NYY in the loss column for the wild card. Even if the Tigs went 10-5 down the stretch, the Yanks could go 8-9 and hold on. NY has 6 games remaining with the O’s, so that means going 2-9 or 3-8 vs. all others. At this point, you’re more likely to see Britney in undies than an O’s win.

The Tigers need to win 2 of 3 at Minnesota and sweep in Cleveland in their next 6 games to have any chance at anything. Cleveland ends the season with KC; maybe the Royals can do to the Tribe what they did to Detroit last season. Cleveland’s magic number is 11. The Indians could go 8-8 in their final 16 and hit 93 wins.

Willie's Choice

The Mets are going to win the NL East. This much is obvious. They have a lead of seven games and a magic number of 11 with seventeen to play. The Braves and Phillies took their shots and came up woefully short. Now it's time to figure out the postseason roster without getting anyone hurt.

The biggest question right now surrounds the starting rotation. Tom Glavine, Pedro Martinez and Orlando Hernandez are basically guaranteed spots if they can remain healthy enough to claim them. Their doing so could be described as almost certain, increasingly likely and a little dicey, respectively. Glavine has been quite consistent in both performance and health, holding the Astros to one run on three hits in seven innings in his thirtieth and most recent start. Pedro followed up his promising season debut by blanking Houston for five innings on six hits and one walk with four strikeouts. And El Duque returned from injury on Tuesday to get lit up by the Braves for eight runs on six hits and four walks in three innings. El Duque could make the Mets' decision for them by continuing to pitch like this, but if he gets it together, they may have to make a tough choice to pare their rotation down to four in October.

Oliver Perez and John Maine have both stumbled in the second half after strong starts, but they both pitched well against Atlanta this week. Perez allowed two runs on five hits and two walks with five strikeouts in seven innings in Monday's win. Maine allowed one run on three hits and three walks and five strikeouts in six innings on Wednesday in a game that the bullpen tried but failed to give away. Perez has been the less awful of the two in the second half, but the fourth spot in the Mets' playoff rotation seemingly remains up for grabs. Both came through on the brink of elimination in last year's NLCS but only one is likely to get a shot at an encore.

The Mets (83-62) do still have some regular season games left to play. Despite El Duque's struggles and an injury to Carlos Delgado, they have heated up in September, winning nine of eleven and scoring more than five runs per game. This weekend they'll host the Wild Card-hungry Phillies (76-69) who only two weeks ago closed to within two games of first place. Glavine (13-6, 3.95) Pedro (2-0, 1.80) and Perez (14-9, 3.42) will start for the Mets against Jamie Moyer (13-11, 5.23), Kyle Lohse (8-12, 4.47) and Adam Eaton (9-9, 6.31). I know I said this last time, but I like those pitching matchups.

Time to roar

Detroit starts a key 3-game series against Seattle tonight. At least the Tigers have the rotation in their favor with Verlander, Robertson and Bonderman throwing. It would be nice if Robertson and Bonderman flashed a little 2006 form.

This, obviously, is a big series between 2 of the wild card contenders. The Yankees travel to KC, then Toronto and Boston, so Detroit needs to make a run right now.

Were the past 2 dramatic wins a sign of things to come, or just something to provide false hope? This in Detroit's favor -- although the Tigs have got a doubleheader on Sept. 11 vs. Texas, they've got off days for the final 3 Thursdays. That could be huge. The Yanks and Mariners both only have 1 day off during that span.

No luck

The Tigers have a make-up game against Toronto scheduled for Monday. The Blue Jays are expected to start Roy Halladay.

Seay me

Tigers reliever Bobby Seay picked up wins on consecutive days as Detroit won in 11 innings on Wednesday and rallied for a 9th-inning victory Thursday. Seay had 2 wins in his entire 6-year career entering this week.

Rescue me

Blown saves in 2007 for AL wild card contenders

Yankees 17
Record: 78-62

Seattle 14
Record: 74-64

Detroit 20
Record: 75-65

Pedro!

A lot can happen in four days. For four days last week it seemed like the Mets would never win another baseball game. The last four days have given reason to reevaluate that assessment.

First there was a shocking three-game sweep of the Braves at Turner Field, not a place where the Mets have played particularly well over the years. The offense, starting pitching and bullpen all performed more consistently than in the Philadelphia series, with the Mets outscoring the Braves 15-4 in the series. John Maine had his best start in a month, Mike Pelfrey had his best major league start ever and Tom Glavine continued his solid second half. The bullpen had the most surprising weekend, giving up just one run in eight innings.

While a sweep of the Braves in Atlanta was satisfying, especially in light of what came before it, nothing could top what happened on Monday. Pedro Martinez made his first major league start in eleventh months and looked quite capable of helping this team through September in beyond. He threw just 76 pitches by design, 47 of them for strikes, and lasted five innings. He allowed three runs, two earned, on five hits and three walks, one intentional. The Mets did not play good defense behind him, but he struck out four, including the 3,000th of his career, and pitched out of trouble more than once. As promising as the results was the way he did it. His fastball was in the low eighties in the first inning, but by the fifth he was consistently at 88 and 89 MPH, even hitting 90 once. If he can put his pitches where he wants to, he won't need any more velocity than that. Of course we'll need to see more than one start before we anoint Pedro World Series MVP, but start number one was very encouraging. Last year the Mets were scrambling to come up with starting pitchers in the playoffs. This year they may find themselves deciding whether Maine or Oliver Perez heads to the postseason bullpen.

Those two will take the hill for the Mets (77-60) in the final games of this series against the Reds (62-76). Perez (12-9, 3.39) will take on Matt Belisle (7-8, 5.33) on Tuesday night and Maine (14-8, 3.57) will face rookie Tom Shearn (1-0, 4.76) on Wednesday afternoon. Thanks to the Phillies losing three of four, the Mets' division lead is back up to five games. Now they'll try to win five straight for the first time all season. With Pedro back in uniform, anything seems possible.

I think the sword could take this pen

Now I am a little bit concerned. The Mets' bullpen is a complete disaster. It would be so based on the performances of the pitchers alone, but Willie Randolph seems intent on making things worse.

On Thursday afternoon, Orlando Hernandez had a rare bad start, giving up five runs in three innings. Randolph had little choice but to bring in Aaron Sele given that Jorge Sosa had pitched two innings the previous night. Aaron Sele had little choice but to give up three runs in an inning and two-thirds given that he's Aaron Sele. But the Mets put ten runs on the board, more than they had in their previous four games combined, and led by two entering the bottom of the eighth inning.

Randolph brought in Billy Wagner, who hadn't pitched since last Friday due to a "tired arm," to pitch the eighth. This was pretty odd, but could be interpreted as smart. Using your best reliever against the heart of the Phillies' lineup in the eighth, as was the case here, makes a lot more sense than saving him to pitch to the bottom of the lineup in the ninth so he can earn a save. Unfortunately, Wagner gave up a solo home run to Patt Burrell in the eighth. But he escaped the inning with the lead intact, having thrown twenty-two pitches.

Wagner did strike out two in the eighth, so it's not as if he was clearly pitching poorly. Still, sending he and his recently tired arm out to pitch the ninth when Aaron Heilman was available and had warmed up earlier in the game was pretty strange. Things got stranger as Wagner allowed a leadoff single to Jayson Werth and still no one stirred in the Mets' bullpen. After Wagner got one out, he and Paul Lo Duca let Werth steal second and third. Another single brought in the tying run. Still no action in the bullpen. Then a walk. No Heilman. Forty-five pitches and four outs in, Wagner gave up his fourth hit which drove in his third and losing run.

The last time Billy Wagner threw as many as forty-five pitches in a regular season game was more than six years ago. Obviously he pitched badly as twenty-two of those forty-five were balls. And this was not a shock as he's now allowed runs in four straight appearances--a total of seven runs in four and one-third innings. But it's hard to fathom what Randolph was thinking letting him pitch that long in such a big game without even warming anyone else up. Given how Wagner's felt and how he's pitched lately, a shorter leash, hell, any leash at all, would have seemed reasonable.

Four losses to the Phillies, each more excruciating than the last, have left the Mets (73-60) with a mere two game lead in the NL East. Now they head to Atlanta to face the Braves (69-65) and their two best pitchers. Tim Hudson (15-6, 3.23) and John Smoltz (12-6, 3.06) will serve as the bread in a Chuck James (9-9, 4.22) sandwich while the Mets send out John Maine (13-8, 3.68), Mike Pelfrey (0-7, 5.92) and Tom Glavine (11-6, 4.15). I think winning one game would be a triumph at this point.

New World Emerging Blues

After a disappointing homestand in which they won just three of six from the Dodgers and Padres, things have only gotten worse on the road for the Mets. Monday's 9-2 loss was neither surprising nor disappointing given than Brian Lawrence was the Mets' starting pitcher. Lawrence has been an adequate short-term fifth starter, but there was never any reason to expect much from him against a good offensive team in a good offensive park.

Tuesday's 4-2 loss in ten innings was a lot more troubling. First of all, the Mets scored just two runs in a game started by Adam Eaton. Only three Mets had a hit in this game and one of them was Tom Glavine. Glavine, Moises Alou and Carlos Delgado did each have two hits, including a Delgado home run that accounted for both runs, but the top four hitters in the lineup went hitless in sixteen at bats. The recently hot New York offense has scored just six runs in its last three games and fifteen in its last five.

Then there's the bullpen. Over the last eight games, the only Mets relievers with ERAs under six are Aaron Sele, who's pitched two scoreless innings, and Aaron Heilman, who's given up six hits and a walk in his last three and one-third innings and allowed an inherited runner to score the tying run in Tuesday's game. It seems no one in the Mets' pen can be trusted right now as even Billy Wagner appeared mortal this week, blowing one save and one tie game. And of course, Willie Randolph's bullpen management has not helped matters. On Tuesday he used Guillermo Mota in the bottom of the ninth inning of a tie game and got away with it only to tempt fate and send him out to pitch to Ryan Howard in the tenth. As the inevitable walk-off home run sailed the hundred or so feet it takes to reach the fence in Citizen's Bank Park, one couldn't help but wonder where Wagner was, or why Scott Schoeneweis is even on the team if someone like Mota is going to pitch to one of the best lefties in the league in extra innings.

The Mets still have a four-game lead in the NL East and favorable pitching matchups in the final two games of this series with Oliver Perez (12-8, 3.34) and Orlando Hernandez (9-4, 3.07) taking on Jamie Moyer (11-10, 5.16) and Kyle Lohse (7-12, 4.47), respectively. But neither Perez nor El Duque is likely to pitch a complete game and the Mets' offense seems incapable of building a big enough lead for their bullpen to protect right now. The Mets still have a much easier road to a division title than the Phillies, but they're going to have to play better than they have the last week to reach its end.

Poor dumb SOB

Life's a beach

I remember one day in 1989, as a cub sportswriter covering Double-A baseball in Williamsport, I interviewed Joey (later Albert) Belle after a 3-K performance for the Canton Indians. Just before the interview started, Indians manager Bobby Molinaro walked by and said to Belle, “This game, sometimes she’s a (rhymes with witch), Joey, ain’t she?”

That quote came to mind tonight as the Tigers lost 11-8 to the Cleveland Indians. A night after Detroit gives up 1 hit to beat the Tribe, and with Justin Verlander on the mound, the Tigs give up 16 hits and 11 runs. Detroit led 3-1 after the first, fell behind 8-3 after 5, then pulled within 8-6 in the 6th only to watch the pen give up 3 in the 8th.

The teams combined for 28 hits after combining for 4 last night. Tuesday’s game was played in 1:59; tonight it was 3:38.

And Gary Sheffield is out indefinitely because of his bum shoulder.

This game, sometimes she’s a …

One magic night

Hopefully, it will lead to more. Jair Jurrjens gave the Tigers the start of a lifetime and the return of Joel Zumaya led to the familiar Zoom-Fernando Rodney-Todd Jones late-inning relay that was so successful in 2006. Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen hit back-to-back jacks and all was right in Motown.

Best line from the night came from Mitch Albom, who said Jair Jurrjens sounds like the name of a Dutch hand lotion.

Heading into last night's game, I figured the Tigers needed to win every 3-game series and split any 4-game sets to have a chance. Using that formula of 2-1/2-2 in series from here on, Detroit would go 25-13 down the stretch and finish 92-70. That means Cleveland would need to play better than 23-16 the rest of the way to force a tie or outright win the AL Central.

At least one win down, coupled with one loss for the Tribe. Still, asking a team that's been struggling like Detroit to play .658 ball the rest of the way could be a stretch. But if the Tigs do start to click, they are capable.

Is Mother Nature The Phillies Biggest Rival?

Here on a rainy Tuesday, I started wondering if the Phillies will be able to get their game in tonight. I started thinking about the problems it would cause if they couldn’t since there is rain in the forecast for tomorrow as well, and this is the last time the Dodgers are hitting up the east coast. If tonight’s game gets called it would bring up a double header and we’ve all seen how hard it is for a team to win both games of a double header. That’s bad news for both the Dodgers and the Phillies who both need as many victories as the can get.

Last September the Phillies had to make up 4 games due to rain. Their record in those make up games was 2-2, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. Three of those games were played as double headers where a split is a common hope. The other was a make up game against the Houston Astros, played on what would have been an off day for the Phillies. Many people point to the September series loss in Washington last season as the series that got away, and the series that ultimately cost the Phillies their shot at the wildcard. That series came right after that make up game loss to the Astros. Is it possible that missing that off day and playing 3 double headers ultimately caused the Phillies to run out of gas?

The question remains, did Pat Gillick do enough to address the Phillies weak bullpen and bench? These were the two weakest links going into the year, and are probably still the team’s two main weak spots. If the Phillies want to make the playoffs, both the aging bullpen and thin bench have to be able to stand up to whatever the last few week’s schedule brings. A little less rain might help too.

Time to Zoom

The Tigers still have 38 games on the schedule, but it feels like time is running out quickly as the team tries to right itself and reach the playoffs again. Detroit really needed to split its series in NY over the weekend, but left with 1 win after taking the opener. The Tigs are 15-23 since the All-Star break and have fallen 2 games behind Cleveland in the loss column in the AL Central and 5 behind Seattle for the wild card.

Needless to say, the upcoming 3-game set with Cleveland is crucial; then comes 4 more against the Yanks followed by a road trip to KC and Oakland. The rotation for the series against the Indians sees Jair Jurrjens, Justin Verlander and Nate Robertson go to the hill. Detroit is playing only .500 ball against the AL, which isn’t a good sign.

Over the past 7 days (6 games), the Tigers hit .253/.294/.373 while their opponents batted .288/.368/.459. Detroit was outscored 32-22 and outhomered 8-4.

Brandon Inge will be on the pines when the Cleveland series starts. This is one of the many reasons Detroit is struggling compared to 2006. Inge is batting .242/.317/.389 this year. He has 12 HR and 56 RBI. Last season, Inge hit .253/.313/.463. He had 27 HR and 83 RBI. Couple this with the output of recently outrighted Craig Monroe, who was .255/.301/.482 with 28 HR and 92 RBI last season and just .222/.264/.373 this year with 11 HR and 55 RBI. That’s a significant drop in power and run production.

Joel Zumaya is expected back tonight; maybe that will be a lift. Placido Polanco should be back, too, after missing 6 games with the flu. Getting Kenny Rogers back would be a help, too. And Andrew Miller.

I noticed the Tigers have allowed 637 runs, which in the Central trails only the White Sox, who have given up 644. Cleveland has yielded 564.

The Tigers have used 11 different starting pitchers this season and 24 pitchers overall.

All told, I guess I should just be thankful the Tigers remain in position to reach the postseason given all that’s gone wrong – injuries to Zumaya, Rodney and Rogers; the drop off of Monroe and Inge, Gary Sheffield’s shoulder woes, and the general ineffectiveness of the bullpen.

Seeing Daylight

New York pitching was shaky again this week, but the offense exploded, enabling them to win five of six from two of the National League's weakest teams. After a spectacular bullpen implosion cost the Mets a sweep of the Pirates on Thursday, there was plenty of reason to worry about this team. But a weekend sweep in the nation's capital leaves the Mets with a five-game lead in the division, tying their largest of the season.

The Mets scored forty-three runs in six games games this week, hitting .318/.400/.516 as a team. This is all the more remarkable given that Carlos Delgado only played two games this week and either Mike DiFelice or Sandy Alomar, Jr. started every game at catcher. Carlos Beltran, apparently back to his 2006 form, led the way with four home runs and a .292/.379/.917 line for the week. David Wright and Moises Alou each also had an OPS over 1.000 and Marlon Anderson went four-for-ten with two doubles off the bench. This offense is finally starting to resemble the 2006 version, scoring 6.47 runs per game in the month of August, second best in the NL. With Beltran dominating again, Wright and Jose Reyes both slightly improving on their 2006 campaigns, Alou making up for the decline in Delgado's production, Lastings Milledge providing some offense out of right field and Luis Castillo playing the Paul Lo Duca role of "guy who gets on base enough to make up for the fact that he has no power," this offense could be just as dangerous as last year's.

Unfortunately, the pitching staff is also starting to look like something we've seen before. Tom Glavine and Orlando Hernandez have pitched well lately and Brian Lawrence has not been a disaster in the fifth spot. But John Maine and Oliver Perez each had another unimpressive start, allowing a total of six runs in ten and two-thirds innings. There may be some help on the way for this starting rotation, but I would feel much more confident if one or both of these guys put a few consecutive good starts together. The Mets may be able to win some 8-6 games in October, but I'd rather they didn't have to.

The lack of success and innings from the starting pitchers is all the more troubling given the recent performance from the bullpen. Billy Wagner has been dominant and Aaron Heilman and Pedro Feliciano have been pretty good. Jorge Sosa has also looked a lot better since moving to the pen. But the rest of the relievers, Scott Schoeneweis, Guillermo Mota and Aaron Sele, have been awful. Combined, they've allowed 148 hits and 54 walks in 127.2 innings with 88 strikeouts and a 5.29 ERA for the season. Schoeneweis and Mota have both been good against lefties, but if Willie Randolph isn't going to use them accordingly, what does that matter? Joe Smith has a 2.57 ERA in seven innings since being sent to New Orleans, but his 4:4 K:BB ratio does not inspire a lot of confidence. Lawrence might make a better long reliever than Sele and if certain other plans work out, Perez or Maine could find himself in the playoff pen as well. Aside from that, there isn't any help on the way. The sixth, seventh and eighth innings of October are likely to be extremely tense affairs.

The Mets (70-53) now return home with Ramon Castro and Damion Easley having joined Paul Lo Duca on the disabled list. Maintaining their offensive pace won't be easy as the Padres (65-57) bring the best pitching staff in the league to town. Maine (13-7, 3.59), Lawrence (1-0, 5.06) and Glavine (11-6, 4.12) will start in this series for the Mets. Chris Young (9-4, 1.93), Clay Hensley (2-3, 6.70) and Jake Peavy (13-5, 2.19) will go for San Diego.

Moving on up

Cameron Maybin, the Tigers' top prospect, has been called up from Double-A Erie while Craig Monroe was designated for assignment. Maybin, 20, who has been compared to Eric Davis (a healthy Davis, I'm hoping), hit .304-10-44 with 25 SB in Single-A before batting .400-4-8 in 6 games for Erie.

Maggestic

Magglio Ordonez is batting .356/.430/.595 this season. He's got 22 HR, 109 RBI and 92 runs scored. He's got 41 doubles and 159 hits. His OPS is 1.025, which is the best of his career. He's on pace for around 210 hits, 120 runs, 50 doubles, 30 HR and 140 RBI. All, except the homers, would be career highs. Pretty impressive given his age, his past injuries, and the fact that a typical Maggs year in his prime White Sox days was something like .315 with 100 runs, 40 doubles, 31 HR and 117 RBI.

We like Maggs.

Can't Decide

With the O's dismal performance in the month of June culminating in the termination of yet another manager, my exasperation reached the point where I determined not to write any more about such a pack of losers.

Taking 2 of three from the Red Sox and Yankees in successive 3 game sets after dropping 3 in a row to Seattle has prompted reconsideration. However, I remain unable to decide whether or not this team is worth talking about.

Erik Bedard has 10 No Decisions in 26 starts. In these 10 No Decisions, Bedard's numbers are as follows:

6.03 IP per start, 3.25 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 10.9 K/9, 47 H, 20 BB, 80 K.

Bedard has 12 wins, 10 No Decisions, 12 consecutive starts w/o taking a loss and 8 (or 9) starts remaining. It's probably not enough remaining starts to get 20 of anything.

But I can't decide.

RUSS-ELL BRAN-YUN *clap clap clapclapclap*

Last night was defiantly one of those games that a contending team wins. Branyan’s homer on the 2nd pitch he saw as a Phillie was a monster. Credit has to be given to Charlie Manuel for asking for Branyan, and for Gillick for getting him. Just by Russell Branyan coming through last night makes that deal worth it.

I’m sold on Loshe, and I’m hoping that they can resigning him at the end of the year. I know he is an average pitcher, but it is clear he has the stuff. I know he’ll probably implode a few times before the season ends, since that is his history, but with the pitching market the way it is Loshe could be a bargain and gives this team what it needs from its pitchers and that is to hold the team in a game. Loshe even pitched a little bit better than his line suggests. Iguchi was eaten up by two ground balls that should have been outs and would have gotten the Philes out of the inning with out being scored on. They weren’t the easiest of plays, but Loshe got the ground balls you wanted at that point. Tough break there, but no big deal thanks to Branyan.

Myers counties to look dominate as a closer as long as he is put into closing situations, striking out the side, and Gordon looks a little bit healthier each time out.

Last night Victorino suffered a set back in his road back. According to the Phillies, Shane felt his calf grab while he was trying to beat out a double-play. Looks like Shane is going to take some more time off before he gets another rehab start.

Today is the day we find out if Eaton gets to stay or go from the rotation. I guessing he gets one more start against the Pirates though I won’t mind if I’m wrong.

One more for the Scooter

"I heard the doctors revived a man after being dead for four-and-a-half minutes. When they asked what it was like being dead, he said it was like listening to New York Yankees announcer Phil Rizzuto during a rain delay." -- Late Night host David Letterman

Goodbye, Scooter

"Well, that kind of puts a damper on even a Yankee win." -- Yankees announcer Phil Rizzuto after reading a bulletin that Pope Paul VI had died.

Even though I've hated the Yankees since I've known what baseball was, I have to admit sadness over the death of Phil Rizzuto. I never saw Rizzuto the player; my only exposure was to Rizzuto the announcer. Listening to Rizzuto and Bill White was a large part of my childhood, and a sound of summer, just like hearing Harry Kalas and Richie Ashburn or Bob Murphy, Ralph Kiner or Lindsey Nelson. Back then, you only got games on regular TV and listened to a lot of games on radio, so those were the voices you heard over and over.

Scooter was famous for his offbeat observations, comments and questions. He only referred to Bill White as "White" throughout their long association. He was famed for leaving games early (which usually resulted in him saying something like "I was on the bridge when Nettles hit that home run and couldn't believe it" the next day). He hated lightning.

One of the most ingenious and entertaining books ever compiled was "O Holy Cow: The Selected Verse of Phil Rizzuto." I recommend it.

To win 300

I saw something in the Bill James Handbook that was interesting regarding 300-game winners, and seems relevant with all the discussion about whether Tom Glavine will be the last 300-game winner we see. I’ll simplify what James found by merely displaying the number of wins for certain pitchers through the age of 30 followed by their career totals.

Phil Niekro 54-318
Gaylord Perry 95-314
Early Wynn 101-300
Warren Spahn 108-363
Lefty Grove 115-300
Tom Glavine 139-300
Nolan Ryan 141-324
Steve Carlton 148-329

Randy Johnson 81-284

That’s 8 pitchers with 300 or more career wins that had fewer than half that total through the age of 30. Randy Johnson’s career might be finished, but he could become the ninth if he gets healthy. Pretty interesting, I think. James suggested at least one more active pitcher (other than Glavine or Johnson when this was written prior to the start of this season) would win 300. Some likely candidates are Roy Oswalt, Tim Hudson, Mark Buehrle, Roy Halladay – maybe even Javier Vasquez, who now has eight straight seasons of 10 or more victories.

Cry me a river Bobby.

"It was a little fly ball," said Braves manager Bobby Cox of Ryan Howard's opposite-field three-run homer. "It goes out here and Cincinnati. Maybe Houston [with] the short porch.

I’m pretty sure 391 ft would have left a lot of parks from where it was hit. It wasn’t like it went to dead center.

The great thing about this is it seems the park is starting to get into everyone’s head now, and not just the Phillies pitchers. Maybe that’s why it seems like the team has a home field advantage this year.

Something else to watch is Josh Towers has cleared waivers. There was a lot of buzz going around that the Phillies were looking at Towers at the deadline. Another name that has been popping up, but I think in this case is just speculation, is David Wells. I can’t see Wells coming here or the Phillies being all that interested, but after how bad Eaton has been and the success of other aging pitchers like Mesa and Alfonseca, who knows.

Right now it all depends on Freddie Garcia. If the team thinks he will be back at the end of the month and ready to go I see Gillick holding tight and riding what he’s got.

Make it stop

The Mets continue to be an extremely frustrating team to root for. This week they lost their fourth straight series to the Braves in agonizing fashion and followed it up by doing no better against the Marlins. Thanks to a ten-run outburst on Sunday, they wound up outscored by just one run in these six games, but their lead in the division will be three games at most at the end of the day. The Braves and Phillies may never take advantage of the Mets' struggles, but no team they face in October is likely to be so forgiving.

One of the major problems in the second half and this week in particular has been the starting pitching. Tom Glavine and Orlando Hernandez are each pitching a little bit better in the second half than the first in terms of ERA and each was solid this week. John Maine and Oliver Perez, however, have not maintained their first half success at all. Maine has an ERA of 6.46 in six post-break stats, more than twice his first half 2.71. Perez's ERA has gone from 3.14 in the first half to 4.33 in the second half. It's not too surprising that Maine has cooled off, given that he's never pitched nearly as well in the majors as he did in the first half of this year and he's already pitched more innings this year than he had in his entire major league career prior to this year. The magnitude of his collapse is still quite disappointing given how good he looked in the first half. Perez was able to maintain his effectiveness through 196 innings three years ago, but since then he's been anything but consistent, so his struggles aren't exactly stunning, either. Still, both were very good for much of this season and a six-start stretch isn't enough to convince me that either is a lost cause. If the Mets are going to play deep into October this year, they will need these two to get it together.

The offense did have a decent week, scoring 31 runs and hitting .281/.338/.433. It was not exactly a dominating performance, especially before Sunday, but there were some good signs. Carlos Beltran returned from the DL and hit a home run, though it was the only hit he had in ten at bats. Jose Reyes, at .360/.429/.520, and David Wright, at .333/.423/.762, both had excellent weeks. And Moises Alou, with three home runs, continued to prove that he'll hit as long as he's healthy. Unfortunately that might not be very long if Willie Randolph keeps having him start every single game. Even with Beltran back, there should be plenty of playing time for Lastings Milledge given Alou's age and injury history and Shawn Green's general lack of ability at the game of baseball, but Randolph doesn't seem to agree. Paul Lo Duca going on the DL on Sunday should also have been a boon to the offense, but Ramon Castro left Sunday's game after just one at bat with "mild arthritis" in his back. He is listed as day-to-day, but I fear the Mike DiFelice era may be upon us.

The Mets (65-52) failed this weekend in their first shot at beating up on the dregs of the National League. They will get a couple more chances in the coming week, starting with a trip to Pittsburgh where the Pirates and the worst record in the National League (48-66) await. El Duque (7-4, 3.05), Maine (12-7, 3.53) and the so-far-adequate Brian Lawrence (1-0, 4.09) will start for the Mets. Ian Snell (7-10, 3.87), Proven Veteran Matt Morris (7-7, 4.53) and Tony Armas Jr. (2-3, 6.13) will go for Pittsburgh.