Doomed!

The Mets did not elect to fire manager Willie Randolph today and as a result will probably never win another game. I don't know who the Mets could or would hire that would be able to turn things around, especially given that both Bobby Valentine and Earl Weaver are likely unavailable. But I don't really think the team is going to be able to find a new first baseman, a new second baseman, a whole new bench and a way to keep Ryan Church, Moises Alou, Pedro Martinez and Orlando Hernandez healthy for the rest of the year. A managerial change seems like the most practical way to awaken this slumbering alleged giant. I won't pretend I know what's going on inside the heads of the players, but they certainly look like they could benefit from being shaken up a bit. And if the replacement manager happens to be competent at the motivational and/or tactical aspects of his job, all the better.

Unfortunately, each day this team's .500 play looks like less of an aberration. They are currently 23-26, which may be slightly unlucky given that they've scored 231 runs and allowed 230. But over their last 162 games, they've won 79 and lost 83. If this is a slump, it's been going on for nearly a third of Randolph's managerial tenure. They've won fewer games over Willie's last 162 than they did over his first 162 and that team had Doug Mientkiewicz, Miguel Cairo, Victor Zambrano and Kazushisa Ishii starting for much of the season.

Of course, the Mets haven't lost those 26 games this year based on Willie's oddly constructed lineups and strange bullpen machinations alone. Numerous players are underperforming relative to preseason expectations while very few are exceeding expectations. The only real pleasant surprises have been Ryan Church, who's hitting .311/.378/.530 but hasn't started since getting kneed in the head on Tuesday, and Scott Schoeneweis, who's been excellent but isn't likely to maintain a 1.42 ERA only striking out 3.3 batters per nine innings. In general the bullpen has been pretty good, aside from Aaron Heilman, Matt Wise and the now departed Jorge Sosa. But when the starters and hitters aren't giving the bullpen leads to protect, they can only do so much.

Offensively, Brian Schneider has met expectations as after a hot start he's fallen back to his usual offensive ineptitude at .266/.331/.330 entering tonight. David Wright and Jose Reyes have underperformed a bit, but they've both been pretty solid with the bat and Reyes did smack a pair of home runs tonight, perhaps auguring a hot streak. Carlos Beltran's .256/.362/.438 start has been disappointing, but I don't doubt that he will get hot at some point. I am not so optimistic about Carlos Delgado and Luis Castillo. Delgado did hit four home runs last week, regardless of what the umpires said, but he only had one hit that wasn't a home run on the just concluded seven-game road trip. Castillo actually hit a home run last week, too, but he is still slugging just .317, and he doesn't have the high OBP (.358) or the speed (six double plays grounded into) to make his grounders-and-walks approach to offense very useful. Wright, Reyes and Beltran could get hot and carry this offense, but they'll need to, because no one else is going to.

The Mets' bench has also been awful. Met pinch hitters are hitting .172/.243/.266 and none of the assortment of fifth outfielders and second basemen that have been pressed into starting duty have done much with the bat. Ramon Castro is finally healthy and has gone four-for-twelve with two doubles, but of course Willie won't use his as a pinch hitter despite the fact that the Mets are carrying three catchers for some reason. Castro and Fernando Tatis are what passes for power hitters on this bench while twenty-nine year old Valentino Pascucci and his .730 slugging percentage remain in New Orleans. Omar Minaya has constructed a bench full of old middle infielders and defensively oriented outfielders even though left field and first base were the two positions where he was most likely to need a good backup this year. Calling up twenty-two year old Nick Evans to play left field over the weekend was a surprising move that worked for at least one day, as Evans hit three doubles and the Mets won. But the bench as a whole is still quite punchless. Replacing third catcher Raul Casanova with Pascucci would be a step in the right direction.

As for the starting rotation, the story is much the same as it was a few weeks ago. Johan Santana, John Maine, Oliver Perez and Mike Pelfrey are all still striking out fewer batters per nine innings than they were last year and all but Pelfrey are walking more. Santana has still been quite good, as you would expect from his 58:15 K:BB ratio, but as a whole, the starting staff has not made things easy on the offense, the defense or the bullpen. Pedro Martinez will likely return next week, which could give the team a boost both emotionally and in terms of strike-throwing. If Perez and Maine can regain their 2007 form, this could still be a formidable staff, with Claudio Vargas filling the fifth spot adequately while Pelfrey heads to AAA to try to figure out how to get lefties out. But Perez locating some consistency is about as big an "if" as Pedro staying healthy for the rest of the season.

This is clearly a flawed team, perhaps one that no one could manage into October. But there is still a lot of talent at its core. It is probably too late to surround that talent with a better supporting cast, but it's not too late to find them a new leader. Replacing Willie Randolph might not have any effect on this team's fortunes for the rest of the season and if that's the case, Omar Minaya may follow him out the door at season's end. But I think things have gotten bad enough that just waiting for the team to start playing better shouldn't be an option for much longer. Some sort of action needs to be taken and I'd much prefer firing the manager to the team's traditional response to adversity. Luckily there aren't many prospects left to trade.

Ryan Howard revisited

Sparky might not have been going out on a limb a couple weeks ago when stats suggested Ryan Howard would turn it around. He just blasted a 2-run HR tonight against the Astros and (entering tonight) was batting .294/.357/.804 for a 1.161 OPS since that post. Not counting tonight, he had 7 HR and 14 RBI in 13 games.

Boss man

The Tigers' bats came alive in their 3-game sweep of Seattle. Now can they keep it going? We've seen flashes of greatness in the past, but they went as quickly as they came.

Some are pointing to Jim Leyland's club meeting and mini-outburst on Tuesday as being a key to getting the players' attention. If nothing else, it seemed to make an impression on closer Todd Jones, who said the following in the Free Press:

"Look, this team needs to realize that this guy took on Barry Bonds. He'd run every one of us out of town. You're just better off if you don't cross him. And I think he relayed that message 100 percent. You just don't mess with him. It's not that hard. He doesn't ask a whole lot."

A blast and a boom

We've seen this before. Jim Leyland gets angry, blows up a bit (Jason Grilli still getting hit hard in Detroit), and the Tigers respond with runs. Of course, it helps that Seattle is in town.

Dontrelle Willis is back, but in the bullpen. I'm still not sure he can throw strikes.

The Tigers are 18-3 when scoring 5 or more runs; 1-24 when scoring 4 or less. That also means Detroit has given up at least 5 runs in more than half its games.

Detroit is 4-3 when Ryan Raburn starts, making Raburn the only position player with a winning record. The Tigers are 5-1 when Armando Galarraga starts and 5-5 when Kenny Rogers is on the hill.

Tigs only have 2 HR from the No. 3 spot in the batting order.

Playing up the positive: Detroit has won 3 of 4.

So long, Mike

Today one of the greatest New York Mets off all time officially said goodbye to the game of baseball. Michael Joseph Piazza, most recently of the Oakland Athletics, announced his retirement, beginning the five year countdown to his Hall Of Fame induction. The only questions that remain are which hat, Mets or Dodgers, will adorn his plaque in Cooperstown--judging by Piazza's statement, he'd probably choose the interlocking NY--and just when the Mets will get around to retiring his number 31. Tom Seaver's number 41 took its place on the Shea Stadium wall in 1988, a year after his retirement, so I don't see why there wouldn't be a Mike Piazza Day on the inaugural Citi Field schedule.

Piazza's prodigious power was and remains his calling card, but to focus merely on the long ball underestimates how well rounded his offensive game was. The greatest home run-hitting catcher in the game's history also put up a career .307 batting average and a .377 OBP to go along with his .545 slugging percentage. His career OPS+ of 142 ranks 61st all time, tied with hitters like Miguel Cabrera, Todd Helton and Gary Sheffield and ahead of Ken Griffey Jr., Reggie Jackson and David Ortiz. Piazza managed to rank in the top ten in OPS in the National League five times in the 90s despite playing the most demanding defensive position on the diamond in two of the toughest parks in which to hit in the league.

And, yes, he hit 427 home runs, 396 of them as a catcher and six more in the postseason. There were plenty of memorable shots among those. There was the two-run blast to center in the bottom of the eighth on September 21, 2001, to give the Mets the lead over the Braves in their first home game after the attacks of ten days prior. There was the solo shot to right in the first inning on May 5, 2004, that broke Carlton Fisk's record for home runs by a catcher and which I was lucky enough to witness live. But the one that stands out in my memory today took place on a Friday night at Shea in 2000.

The Mets entered June 30th trailing the first place Braves by three games, having had a seven-game winning streak snapped by Atlanta a day earlier. The pitching matchup featured Mike Hampton for the Mets and Kevin Millwood for the Braves. Both went seven innings, but Millwood allowed just one run while Hampton was knocked around for five. Reliever Eric Cammack entered in the top of the eighth for the Mets and gave up two walks before Brian Jordan stepped to the plate and smacked a three-run home run to put the score at 8-1 in favor of the Braves. Cammack finished the top of the eighth*, bringing the heart of the Mets' lineup to the plate, beginning with two hitter Derek Bell.

Bell singled to center but Edgardo Alfonzo flied out. Piazza singled and went to second on a throwing error, putting runners on second and third for Robin Ventura. Ventura grounded out, driving in a run to make the score 8-2 but leaving the Mets just one out to work with. What followed was the most dramatic eighth inning at the end of June I think I've ever seen. Todd Zeile singled to bring home Piazza. Jay Payton singled. Kerry Ligtenberg entered the game for the Braves and walked the next three batters, Benny Agbayani, Mark Johnson and Melvin Mora, making the score 8-5. Terry Mulholland entered and walked Bell, bringing in another run. An Alfonzo single tied the game and brought Piazza to the plate for a second time in the inning, this time with two men on base. Mike then electrified the crowd, the bench and play-by-play man Gary Thorne by driving the ball over the left field wall to put the Mets ahead, 11-8, pumping his fist as he jogged to first.

The Mets didn't wind up catching the Braves in the division that year, though they did outlast them in the postseason after winning the Wild Card. But that game was some of the most fun I've ever had watching a game of baseball on television. Piazza provided a lot of fun moments in his nearly eight years in New York. He is the greatest offensive player in the history of the franchise and if his is the second theoretically blue and orange cap to adorn a plaque in Cooperstown, it will be a fitting honor.





*Fun fact: Cammack pitched so badly that even though the Mets took the lead after the inning that he pitched, he was not awarded the win by the official scorer. Armando Benitez, who pitched the ninth in what would otherwise have been a save situation, was.

Give 'em the heat, meat

Daniel Cabrera is pitching tonight for the O's and Stanley recently noted Cabrera seems to be taking the advice about pounding the strike zone. So, I took a look at Cabrera's stats on Fangraphs and I think they're telling.

Cabrera is throwing 87% fastballs, by far the highest percentage of his career. His career average is 73.5%. His fastball is averaging 93.1 mph, the lowest mark of his career (lifetime average 94.7). He is using his slider and curveball far less and mixing in more changeups. He's also throwing all 3 of those pitches with less velocity. His K/9 are down by nearly 2, but his BB/9 also are down by close to 2.

Baltimore is among the better defensive teams in the AL and Cabrera is benefiting from a .240 BABIP. That number could indicate some good luck for Cabrera, but it also could be the result of throwing strikes and letting his defense do some work behind him. It seems reasonable to believe that BABIP can be influenced some by getting hitters to swing in pitchers' counts rather than hitters' counts.

My, my Myers

I've never bought into the "Brett Myers is gonna be a stud starter" idea, although he should be better than what he's shown this year. Maybe he can't get used to be a starter again after enjoying the closer role so much last season.

Looking at his stats, his K/9 is 7.58 (career average 7.54), his BB/9 is 3.19 (3.17) and his K/BB is 2.38 (2.38). His LOB% is 72.5 (73.8). Here's where it gets dicey: His HR/9 is 2.28 (1.34) and his BABIP is .335 (.304).

Throwing out his breakdown stats from last season because he was primarily a reliever, Myers is throwing fewer cutters and curveballs and more sliders this year. Plus, as widely discussed, the velocity on his fastball is down a bit. Interestingly, his velocity on other pitches is in line with previous seasons.

Is Myers worrying too much about his fastball and turning more to his slider? Is this putting him in bad counts and contributing to his high HR figure? Worth considering.

Bizarro world

Detroit 16-24
Seattle 16-26
Colorado 15-25
San Diego 15-26

St. Louis 24-18
Florida 23-17
Tampa Bay 23-17
Baltimore 21-19

Could have won a lot of bets by forecasting these records.

For Stan...

Orioles Magic 2008
by gatecitycanes

Payton Slams BoSox

The O's home run onslaught continues...

In for a Penny, In for a Pound?

Anyone following the Orioles this season has noticed that Daniel Cabrera (4-1, 3.58 ERA) has pitched effectively through 9 starts. The following table reflects Daniel Cabrera's career numbers (including 2008) against his 2008 numbers (through 9 starts).

TimeFrame	IP/Start	ERA	WHIP	BB/9	K/9
Career	5.77	4.88	1.51	5.14	7.4
2008	6.7	3.58	1.23	3.58	5.52

The difference thus far in 2008 is that Cabrera is throwing strikes. In early April, when asked what he wanted from Cabrera, O's manager Dave Trembley said, "He needs to consistently repeat his delivery, use his fastball and pound the strike zone. I mean pound it. Pound it!"

Cabrera's K/9 is down along with ERA, WHIP and BB/9, however, if he keeps throwing strikes, the K/9 will edge back up. What he has (hopefully) learned, or is learning, is what all good ML pitchers know. While the great ones strike out many batters, a good pitcher pounds the strike zone with such consistency that every batter knows, upon stepping into the box, that he must swing the bat. The good pitcher then pounds the strike zone, allowing the fretsome batsmen to strike out.

Manny being Manny brings you…

The greatest play ever made.

2-out hits

I don't know if the number of 2-out hits allowed with RISP is a factor in a team's success, or lack thereof, but it would seem to make sense. If you can limit scoring by getting out of innings when the opportunity is there, you would think you should be in better shape than others. Obviously, hits dropping in can be the product of luck, so this probably can't accurately determine the effectiveness of a staff, but it seemed worth a look.

The Tigers have given up 54 hits with 2 outs and RISP; only Colorado, with 56, is worse in MLB. Furthermore, Detroit only has 22 strikeouts in those situations, the worst in MLB. This would seem significant to me.

Cleveland has yielded the lowest number of hits with 2 outs and RISP, with 24. Toronto (28), Baltimore (29) and the Cubs (30) and Rays (30) follow. Of that group, only Toronto has a losing record, and the Blue Jays' ERA is 3.56, which is fourth best in MLB.

Joining Detroit and Colorado in the bottom 5 are Pittsburgh, Texas, and the White Sox.

Right is wrong

One (or do I mean another) reason for the Tigers' struggles this season seems like it can be traced to the predominantly right-handed lineup struggling against right-handed pitching.

Magglio Ordonez's .833 OPS against righties is the tops among RHB (not counting switch-hitters). Brandon Inge, who sees more time in the dugout than on the field now, is the only other RHB above .800, checking in at .803. Miguel Cabrera is next, at .764.

Ordonez's career OPS vs. RHP is .874, Cabrera's is .902, Pudge Rodriguez's is .806, Gary Sheffield's is .905.

Against left-handed pitching, Edgar Renteria, Ordonez, Marcus Thames and Cabrera all have an OPS above 1.000. Unfortunately, only 14.5% of the team's at-bats have been against lefties so far this season, so it's a very small sample. Last season, 23% of at-bats were against LHP.

The more I write about this team, the more it becomes clear: A lot of stuff is wrong.

Just Enough to Win the Turkey

Randy Johnson, the Diamondbacks "Big Unit", stretched out for 5 IP last night to record his 287th victory. By comparison, the Yankees Wang slung a full 7 but recorded a no-decision.

"I'll play first, third, left. I'll play anywhere - except Philadelphia." - Dick Allen

Aaahhhh, Dick jokes.

"Do you date immature men?" - Jerry Seinfield

Luxurious

The Orioles had not hit a 3-run home run all season until last Thursday against Kansas City.

Luke Scott blasted a 3-run shot in the 3rd inning off of Josh Beckett last night to give the O's a 5-3 lead on their way to a 5-4 victory over the Red Sox.

It was the 4th 3-run homer for the O's in the last 5 games with Nick Markakis, Aubrey Huff, Kevin Millar and Luke Scott providing the big blows.

The Orioles are 4-0 in the games in which they've hit a 3-run home run.

Bring on the NL

The Tigers will get a taste of interleague play this week when they travel to Arizona. Detroit was 14-4 last year against the NL and is 29-7 the past two seasons. Of course, that means the Tigs are 90-92 against the AL since the end of 2006.

If this year is going to turn around, now would be a good time. Detroit had two days off because of a rainout and scheduled off day, and now get KC, Arizona, Seattle and Minnesota. The Tigers, for all their flaws, remain only 4.5 games out of first place, so it's hard to say it's now or never, but it would be OK to show a little fire here.

On the Cliff

Cliff Lee has been out-of-his-mind good this season. He's 6-0 with a 0.81 ERA. While it would be extremely unlikely he could continue to pitch this well, I noticed he is relying on his fastball more and change-up less this season. In fact, his pitch breakdown is very similar to 2005 when he went 18-5 with a 3.79 ERA.

Of course there's no way Lee is going to keep stranding 86% of baserunners, but his LD% this season is a career-low 14 and his GB% is a career-high 47. His FB/HR% is 2.2 and BABIP is .216. Lee's BABIP in 2005 was .287, which is a little bit on the lucky side, but not too much.

There's no question Lee's stats will correct themselves to some degree, but if his success is related to returning to a previously successful pitch breakdown, he could be good for the long haul.

Correction coming for Howard?

There's been much talk in Philly about Ryan Howard's horrible start. Entering Sunday, he was batting .169/.281/.346 for an OPS of .627 that's about .300 below his career low. Here is a look at some key stats that to me indicate things aren't as bad as they seem. The stats are in order from 2005-2008.

BB%: 9.6, 15.7, 16.8, 13.9
K%: 32.1, 31.2, 37.6, 38.2
BABIP: .358, .363, .336, .208
LD%: 26.6, 21.9, 24.3, 19.8
GB%: 43.9, 41.9, 31.5, 45.3
FB%: 29.4, 36.2, 44.2, 34.9
IFFB%: 0, 3.4, 2.7, 10.0
HR/FB%: 34.9, 39.5, 31.5, 23.3

His K rate is very poor, but not much worse than last year. Note the BABIP difference. He is hitting fewer line drives and more groundballs and infield popups, which is probably contributing to the BABIP, but that might be bad luck, too. His HR per flyball rate is low for him, but high for most humans. Of course, it was ridiculously good in the past.

Here is where it gets even more interesting, I think.

Swings at balls outside strike zone%: 25.15, 25.62, 25.78, 22.37
Swings at balls inside strike zone%: 73.38, 70.18, 69.96, 72.85
Swing%: 49.07, 46.27, 45.39, 47.06
Contact on balls outside strike zone%: 35.88, 35.22, 39.19, 33.82
Contact on balls inside strike zone%: 80.53, 81.14, 76.53, 75.47
Contact%: 69.0, 67.49, 64.73, 65.36

Howard's swing percentage is up a bit, but generally he's swinging at fewer balls outside the strike zone and more balls inside the strike zone than he usually does. This would seem good. Of course, this should be tempered with the fact his contact percentage is well below last year's MLB mark of 80.8%. Maybe he can't sustain his past level of production with such a low contact rate, but since his contact rate this season is in line with his past numbers, I'm willing to hold off on that assumption for now.

Same old Mets

The Mets had another mediocre week, splitting six games with the Dodgers and Reds. The offense does appear to be coming around as they put 38 runs on the board in these six games. They even put together back-to-back twelve-run efforts. Of course, they wouldn't be the Mets if they didn't follow that up by being shut down by a pitcher of dubious quality. This time it was Bronson Arroyo who the Mets turned into Sandy Koufax for eight innings, lowering his ERA by a run and a half in the process, all the way to 7.14.

While the Mets' play continues to be characterized by enough inconsistency to drive Joe Morgan to drink, there were some encouraging signs this week. Carloses Delgado and Beltran both had big offensive weeks. Delgado hit .368/.409/.632 in the last two series while Beltran hit .381/.417/.810. These two need to hit well if the Mets' offense is going to be much more than league average and while I never doubted that Beltran would eventually start to hit, it's reassuring to see that Delgado still has some life in his bat. Ryan Church also had a big week with the bat at .333/.391/.810, but he's been hitting all year. Perhaps the most stunning development of the week was Brian Schneider's Saturday home run. It was his first extra base hit of the season in his sixty-seventh at bat.

The Mets (19-16) get another chance to assert themselves against weaker competition starting Monday as they begin a four-game series at home against the Nationals (15-23). Nelson Figueroa (2-2. 4.81, 25:19 K:BB), John Maine (4-2, 3.00, 33:21) and Johan Santana (4-2, 3.10, 52:13) will pitch the first, second and fourth games of the series with game three's starter as yet undetermined due to Saturday's doubleheader. Odalis Perez (0-3, 3.43, 34:18), John Lannan (3-3, 3.40, 27:17), Tim Redding (4-3, 3.83, 30:18) and Mike O'Connor (1-1, 13.00, 4:11 (yes, really)) will start for the Nationals. This is the Mets' third series against Washington this season and once again they will not have to face noted steroid user and adulterer Paul Lo Duca, who is now on the disabled list with a fractured right hand. Lastings Milledge, off to a slow start with the bat at .252/.322/.341 will be in the lineup.

Losing any old way

Hard to believe the Tigers were 14-15 after sweeping the Yankees last week. Now they're on a 1-6 slide (lucky to get the 1) with NY coming to Detroit. Maybe this is what the Tigs need, although sooner or later you are what your record says you are.

Justin Verlander, the one pitcher I wasn't too worried about coming into the season, is 1-6 with a 6.43 ERA. His K/G are down from 8.2 last year to 5.1 this season. His BB/G are up from 3.0 to 3.6. His HR/G are up from 0.89 to 1.19. Oddly, the defense is turning 72% of batted balls in play into outs, the same as last year. His line drive % is a ridiculously low 13.4. A killer stat, though, is his LOB%, which is down from 74.9 last year to 56.4 this year.

A lot of mixed signals in there. "The stuff is fine," manager Jim Leyland is quoted on Tigers.com. "The execution of pitches is not."

The loss dropped Verlander's record to 1-6. In terms of wins and losses, it's the worst start by a Tigers pitcher since 2003, when Mike Maroth went 0-9 on his way to 21 losses. Is this the curse of Maroth again?

Winning one the old fashioned way

The O's defeated the Royals last night in Kansas City by a 4-1 score in a fashion reminiscent of bygone glory days.

Daniel Cabrera pitched a complete game allowing 1 earned run on 3 hits and 1 walk while striking out 7.

The defense played errorless baseball.

Nick Markakis hit a 3-run homer. (Segue to Springsteen now....)

What next?

OK, facing a knuckleballer was probably the last thing the struggling bats in Motown needed. Still, this is becoming ridiculous. Sparky is on the verge of changing his name to The Pope and only blogging about the Phillies. It probably would spark more witty banter with Joe and give Brian the opportunity to offer his insights like "good pitching is good."

I have a new theory about the Tigers. It's the curse of Mike Maroth. Detroit was 42-29 when Maroth was traded last season. I believe that makes the Tigs 60-65 since. Maroth was released last week by the KC organization after posting a 12.91 ERA in three Triple-A starts. Here's hoping Dave Dombrowski brings him back, sits him in the dugout, and reverses the karma.

All or nothing

Recently, I posted the Tigers BA/OPB/SLG in games they've lost, and it was seemingly bad. I wondered how those numbers compared to the rest of the AL. Here are the Tigers' stats vs. the AL stats:

Tigers: .221/.298/.309 -- .607 OPS
AL: .219/.286/.323 -- .608 OPS

So, the Tigers are pretty much "average bad" in their losses. However, I put my finger on why it seems worse. Here are the Tigers stats vs. the AL stats in wins:

Tigers: .316/.404/.584 -- .988 OPS
AL: .295/.372/.462 -- .834 OPS

You can see, Detroit is far better than "average good" in its wins. Their OPS+ compared to the league split in wins is 132 and in losses is 98.

But what makes it seem worse is their OPS+ compared to their team in losses. That figure is 57. Ouch. That number is the third worst in the AL. Surprisingly, the two teams that are worst (Boston, 55; Oakland, 40) have winning records. The Tigers' difference between their team win OPS+ of 150 and team loss OPS+ of 57 is second worst to Oakland's 137/40. Given the A's lineup, their stats are less of a surprise.

This is why Detroit is so frustrating. How can this lineup mash one game and get shut down the next? The Tigers entered Monday ranked 2nd in the AL in OBP and 1st in slugging. I'm at a loss, and so is Jim Leyland. (So I don't feel too bad, except I would've hoped he was smarter than me.)

All the above stats can be found on baseball-reference.com.

The Do-Do Walk

The Mets had a pretty good weekend, as they tend to do when they head to Arizona. They won two of three and put their theoretical everyday lineup on the field for the very first time in the season's twenty-ninth game. Moises Alou and Brian Schneider are back, Carlos Delgado is starting to hit and the Mets are just half a game out of first place in the NL East. It's enough to trick you into not worrying so much about this team.

Well, almost enough. In reality, the Mets, 16-13 and in the thick of the division race though they may be, are far from easy to root for right now. Their modest success seems to have been achieved by the skin of their teeth and this is born out by their unimpressive run scored to runs allowed ratio of 135 to 132. Their offense is right in the middle of the National League pack and this is disappointing, but not too surprising given that Alou has only played two games and nobody named Carlos has done much hitting yet. The "runs allowed" side of the ledger is a bit more troubling.

The Mets' pitching was supposed to be the team's real strength but so far they've allowed 4.55 runs per game, about average for a National League team this year. The fact that Pedro Martinez has only pitched three and a third innings has been a blow to preseason expectations, but his replacement, Nelson Figueroa, has been okay. The problem has been disappointing performances from just about everybody else.

I've talked before about the starters failing to pitch deep in the games leading to an overreliance on the bullpen and this continues to be a problem. The main culprits have been John Maine and Oliver Perez, who are both pitching fewer innings per start than they did last year. But a more fundamental problem, and one that is plaguing almost the entire staff, is the base on balls. Entering Sunday, the Mets had walked 4.1 batters per game, fifth worst in the league.

The Mets have ten pitchers who have pitched a significant number of innings (more than three and a third) in the majors this year and last year. Six of them are walking batters more frequently than last year, nine are striking out fewer batters and seven have a worse strikeout-to-walk ratio. Only Billy Wagner and Scott Schoeneweis have significantly improved their K:BB ratio, while Joe Smith has slightly improved his. Those three and Johan Santana are the only Met pitchers with K:BB ratios of 2.0 or better. Figueroa and Duaner Sanchez, who didn't pitch in the majors last year, also fall below 2.0. Aaron Heilman is the only pitcher whose strikeout rate has improved, to more than a K per inning, but he's also walking more than five batters per nine innings.

The season is still young, but these are some pretty disturbing trends. More and more voices are calling for Willie Randolph's head, but perhaps Rick Peterson deserves a little more scrutiny. The supposedly elite Mets pitching staff is, across the board, walking more batters and striking out fewer. Not surprisingly, seven of ten pitchers, including all four returning starters, are throwing more pitches per inning than they were last year. Willie's bullpen management is far from perfect, but the fact that his pitchers need more pitches to get through an inning than they did last year isn't helping him any.

The Mets pitchers' season-long search for the strike zone now takes them to Chavez Ravine as they begin a series on Monday against the second place Dodgers (17-14). Perez (2-2, 4.03, 26:21 K:BB), Figueroa (2-1, 4.08, 22:15) and Maine (3-2, 3.48, 29:19) will start for the Mets. The Dodgers will counter with Chad Billingsley (1-4, 5.20, 40:17), Hiroki Kuroda (1-2, 3.82, 20:8) and Brad Penny (5-2, 3.19, 20:14).

Utley, Burrell and mirrors

I just got home from watching the Phillies take advantage of 3 Giants errors to win 6-5. The first-place Fightins have gotten surprisingly good work from their bullpen this season and great hitting from Chase Utley and Pat Burrell.

Beyond that, it's remarkable this team is in first place. Jimmy Rollins has only played 12 games and nobody outside of Utley and Burrell (and for a while Jayson Werth) is hitting. With Shane Victorino back in the lineup after being sidelined by injury, only Utley and Burrell entered today with an OPS+ higher than pitcher Cole Hamels. (Read that sentence again to fully absorb it.)

Here are the regulars' OPS+ entering today:

C - Carlos Ruiz, 39
1B - Ryan Howard, 65
2B - Chase Utley, 211
3B - Pedro Feliz, 68
SS - Eric Bruntlett, 45
LF - Pat Burrell, 185
CF - Shane Victorino, 45
RF - Geoff Jenkins, 74

P - Cole Hamels, 78

Some of the subs have fared better:

C - Chris Coste, 136
OF - Jayson Werth, 117
IF - Greg Dobbs, 122

He's got pull

After watching Chase Utley jerk another HR into the RF seats at the Zen, I was wondering if Utley has made an effort to pull the ball this season. It's probably too early to draw any conclusions, but I found these stats on baseball-reference.com regarding balls pulled, hit up the middle, and hit to the opposite field.

Last year, Utley had 69 hits and 8 HR listed under pull, 82 hits and 11 HR on up the middle, and 25 hits and 3 HR the opposite way. This season, he has 20 hits and 8 HR pulled, 22 hits and 5 HR up the middle and 3 hits and 0 HR the other way. Notice he already has as many pulled HR this year as in 2007.

For his career, Utley has 290 hits and 65 HR pulled, 310 hits and 39 HR up the middle, and 84 hits and 5 HR to the opposite field. Historically, Utley seems to be a pull-up the middle hitter. But the small sample from this year suggests he might be trying to pull even more.

Swinging

I recently found you can find data on batter swings on Fangraphs. You can access an explanation here. I looked up Pedro Feliz, because he is a very perplexing hitter. He has a reputation for being a free swinger and his stats suffer. But he doesn't seem to strike out excessively (10.1% this season). Having watched him this year, it seems like he takes a lot of bad swings. Anyway here is some data.

Oswing% is the percentage of pitches swung at outside the strike zone. Zswing% is the number of pitches swung at within the strike zone. Swing% is the overall swing percentage. Ocontact% is the contact percentage on pitches outside the strike zone. Zcontact% is the contact percentage on pitches within the strike zone. Contact% is the overall percentage.

Here are Feliz's numbers for 2008 with last year's MLB averages in parentheses.

Oswing%: 24.67 (25.0)
Zswing%: 62.35 (66.6)
Swing%: 44.69 (45.9)
Ocontact%: 67.57 (60.8)
Zcontact%: 92.45 (88.2)
Contact%: 86.01 (80.8)

Feliz is making contact this year at a high rate compared to last year's MLB average. He also makes contact at a higher percentage of balls outside the strike zone. This backs up what I've seen, primarily he puts balls in play on what I would call bad swings. This might explain why his BABIP, which is an awful .200 this year, is almost always below average (.269 lifetime). I've also noticed his line drive percentage is below average and his infield flyball percentage is above average. I'm guessing it's because of those bad swings on balls outside the zone.

As for pitches/plate appearance, Feliz sees a very low 3.18, which is the worst among qualified 3B in the NL. This help explains the low number of strikeouts. Of course, Chipper Jones sees only 3.21 P/PA, and he's batting .417 with a 1.155 OPS, so I don't know how to figure that one out.

Farewell to the House

For the first time in my lifetime, the Tigers swept a 3-game series in Yankee Stadium. The last time Detroit took 3 in the Bronx was at the start of the 1966 season, and my place on earth wasn't secured until the fall. Unless the teams meet in the playoffs, it will be the Tigs final trip to Yankee Stadium.

Detroit has won 8 of 10. The Tigers are 14-2 when scoring 5 or more runs; 0-13 when scoring 4 or less.

Miguel Cabrera has hit in 17 of 18 and is slugging .647 during that time. He has 5 HR and 20 RBI in those games. Ramon Santiago, in 24 AB, has 9 hits, 5 for extra bases including his first HR since 2003.

Armando Galarraga looks to win his 3rd consecutive game when Detroit visits Minnesota tonight. Galarraga could become the first Tigers rookie starter since Pat Underwood in 1979 to win his first three decisions.

The Tigers have received only 6 quality starts this season, but are 5-1 in those games. The bullpen has done well, and should be better with addition of Francisco Cruceta. The bullpen has allowed 19 of 53 inherited runners to score, which is a decent mark. The relievers have a 1.10 ERA over the last 13 games.

Detroit is batting .316/.404/.584 in wins and .219/.305/.299 in losses.

Brandon Inge and Santiago (primarily) have helped the Tigers post an .868 OPS in the No. 9 spot in the batting order. It's been the most productive spot outside of No. 4 (.921) and No. 5 (.901), which are occupied by Magglio Ordonez and Miguel Cabrera.

Climbing up -- an April review

The Tigers finished April 13-15, which is about as good as one could've hoped after starting 0-7. The offense, which was horrendous to begin the campaign, now ranks No. 1 in the AL in OBP, at .355, and No. 1 in SLG, at .436. Depsite getting shutout 4 times, they lead the AL with 142 runs. They are 1st in walks with 122 and 7th in strikeouts with 167.

Detroit's pitching ranks 13th in the AL with a 4.88 ERA, but that's still a pretty good improvement on the 5+ ERA the staff posted early on. The Tigers have allowed more walks (129) than any AL team other than Texas (131). They are 10th in strikeouts with 157. Their OPS allowed is .736, which places them in the middle of the pack.

(As a side note, I noticed Texas' OPS allowed is a mind-boggling .838, which happens to be Alex Rodriguez's OPS this season. So the Rangers, on average, turn teams into A-Rod.)

Detroit's DER is .716, which is above the average of .699 and another big improvement over the early part of the season. Moving Miguel Cabrera to 1B and getting back Curtis Granderson in CF helped, no doubt.

O's Retake AL East Lead

The Baltimore Orioles squared off against the Tampa Bay Rays last night in an unlikely showdown; a battle for sole possession of first place in the AL East between the perennial 4th and 5th place teams.

The O's called up Garrett Olsen from AAA Norfolk to make the start and something entirely unforeseeable happened; he pitched effectively. 6 2/3 IP allowing 2 runs in an eventual 7-4 O's victory. The last time I can recall an Orioles pitcher being called up from the minors during the season for a start, and that pitcher subsequently pitching well, would be Mike Mussina.

A number of things are happening to/for the O's this April that haven't happened for years (haven't really checked that, it may just seem like years). O's pitchers do not lead the AL in walks. The O's are 7-2 in one run games. They are 7-0 in games in which they have 10 hits or more. The bullpen is 4th in ERA in the AL. Daniel Cabrera has 4 consecutive quality starts. Aubrey Huff is hitting with power. I've gotten a second chance to post a blog entry with the O's in first place.

While I harbor no suspicions that the O's will continue to win, they've posted a winning mark in April, which is one more winning month than I suspected in March. They've played well. The defense has been outstanding. The pitching has been effective. The offense has been timely.

It's been thoroughly enjoyable watching Orioles baseball this April.

I told you I was good luck

The Mets' performance over the weekend wasn't exactly dominating, but it was certainly an improvement over the previous week. Facing the three best pitchers the Atlanta Braves had to offer, the Mets managed to take two out of three with neither Johan Santana nor Oliver Perez taking the mound. The starting pitchers only pitched fifteen and two-thirds innings, but the bullpen was solid (Jorge Sosa didn't pitch and Aaron Heilman only gave up one run in one inning of work). And while thirteen runs in three games is hardly an offensive explosion, the bats did show signs of life.

David Wright broke out of a five-game hitless streak with a pair of singles on Saturday. Raul Casanova had four hits in two games including his first home run of the season. And Carlos Delgado smacked a pair of long balls on Sunday, thus igniting the stupidest controversy of the day.

The Mets have now scored 113 runs in 24 games, 4.71 per game. This is only the sixth best mark in the league. While it's too early to declare Delgado reborn, I have little doubt that the offense as a whole will improve, even if Moises Alou never returns.

Although no other starter has had the sort of prolonged bout of uselessness that plagued Delgado, there are still several key players who are underperforming. Jose Reyes is foremost among these, hitting just .237/.272/.392. Reyes has only drawn five walks so far, so perhaps part of his struggle could be chalked up to his approach at the plate, but he's also been somewhat unlucky. He has a batting average on balls in play of just .250 compared to a league average of .291. Carlos Beltran, hitting .224/.359/.412 with a BABIP of .270 is another Met whose numbers should improve as his luck begins to even out. And as evidence that Carlos Delgado's slump isn't entirely the result of having gotten old and/or hating the fans, I point to his .221 BABIP, lowest on the team. He's probably not going to revert to the form of his glory days in Toronto, but at the very least I think a few more ground balls might start finding some holes.

The Mets (13-11) and their offense will try to take a few more steps forward starting Monday as they welcome one of the worst teams in the league to town. The Pirates (10-15) come to town holding the distinction of being the only sixth place team in the major leagues. They will have to tangle with Johan Santana (3-2, 3.12, 32:5 K:BB), Oliver Perez (2-1, 3.62, 24:16) and Mike Pelfrey (2-1, 4.43, 10:10). The Met bats will try to keep up Sunday's good work against Ian Snell (2-1, 4.45, 21:9), Tom Gorzelanny (1-3, 8.46, 13:22) and Zach Duke (0-2, 5.34, 9:8).

The best on the bench

Jim Leyland said yesterday Brandon Inge might be the best defensive third baseman in all of baseball. Yet, if Carlos Guillen and Gary Sheffield are healthy, Inge is on the bench. That's because Guillen will be playing 3B and Sheff will have the DH spot.

Perhaps Leyland is talking up Inge so the Tigers can trade him. But the Tigers have made a mess of the situation surrounding Inge, 3B, Guillen and Miguel Cabrera. No doubt Guillen and Cabrera are superior offensive players. However, in Sports Illustrated's baseball preview, the folks at Baseball Prospectus determined Detroit would be better with Inge at 3B and Cabrera in LF because Inge's defense was so good it made up for his offensive shortcomings.

This season, Inge is playing like he's got something to prove. He's batting .268/.379/.465 and his OPS+ is 128. He's got 3 HR, 14 RBI and 10 R, primarily from the No. 9 spot in the lineup. His .844 OPS is right below Cabrera's .856 and ranks 24th among all AL hitters. Guillen is second at .999, thus the complications. I can't find data on win shares for 2008, but would guess Inge's defense would place him slightly ahead of Cabrera at this point.

I guess this is ultimately a good problem to have. Maybe Brandon can pitch?

Good news, bad news

Good news: Detroit's bats are alive, and the Tigs have yet to put their expected regular lineup on the field in any game.

Bad news: Gary Sheffield's shoulder is still causing trouble, so the regular lineup might never get used.

Good news: Tiger relievers have given up 2 ER in the last 25 IP and limited foes to .157 BA during that span.

Bad news: Detroit wins games by 19-6 and 8-2 and the starters fail to stick around long enough to get the victories. Twenty-three games into the season and the starters have 3 quality starts.

Good news: The Tigers are 8-3 in last 11.

Bad news: Detroit's next opponent, the Angels, are 8-3 in their last 11.

Good news: Curtis Granderson in 2 games has 4 R, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 3 BB.

Bad news: Detroit's leadoff men had 3 R, 0 HR, 9 RBI, 5 BB in Granderson's absence (21 games).

Is it September already?

After reaching the lofty heights of a 10-6 record last weekend in Philadelphia, the Mets have gotten an early start on this year's collapse. They've now lost four of their last five, outscored 32-18. Their means of defeat have ranged from inadequate starting pitching to inept offense to incompetent relief.

The bats have seemingly all gone cold at once. Except for Carlos Delgado, who was cold to begin with. Over the last five games, Jose Reyes, David Wright and Carlos Beltran hit a combined .167/.286/.283. There is plenty of uncertainty in the Mets lineup on its best day. With Delgado acting out his worst case scenario on a daily basis and Raul Casanova making Met fans long for Brian Schneider's fearsome bat, the team really can't afford a slump from the guys who actually can hit. On the bright side, Luis Castillo hit five singles in the last two days, bringing him all the way up to .273/.360/.288 for the year.

Pitching was supposed to be the team's strong point and while, on the whole, the pitchers have been good, they haven't been nearly the dominant force needed to make up for the offense's inconsistency. After Thursday night's ten-run effort, they've allowed 89 on the year or 4.24 per game. It would be easy to blame Willie Randolph's bullpen management for this, or even the relievers themselves, but the starters are not without fault.

Mets starters have posted a 3.59 ERA so far this year, but they've averaged less than six innings per start, leading Willie to utilize at least three or four relievers almost every night. A Met starter has recorded more than eighteen outs eight times. A starter other than Johan Santana has done so just three times. Not once has a starter recorded more than twenty-one outs. With the Mets in the middle of a stretch of sixteen games without a day off, the bullpen hasn't had much chance to catch its breath.

A few relievers are off to very good starts. Joe Smith has pitched 10.1 innings, allowed just seven hits and three walks and struck out eight. The returning Duaner Sanchez has pitched five good innings, allowing just two hits and one walk with three strikeouts. And Billy Wagner has been dominant, having allowed no hits and just two walks in eight innings with eight strikeouts. Unfortunately, almost everyone else has struggled.

Scott Schoeneweis has been decent facing mostly lefties, allowing four hits and one walk in 5.1 innings, though he's only struck out one and did allow a home run to Chase Utley. Pedro Feliciano has disappointed, allowing seven hits and six walks in 5.1 innings, though he has struck out eight. But the biggest problem has been Aaron Heilman and Jorge Sosa, who lead the pen in apperances and innings pitched. In 27.2 innings, they've allowed 16 walks and 33 hits including an absurd eight home runs. Sosa's uselessness is not a total shock, but Heilman's complete implosion is a serious blow to the pen. Willie believes that Heilman is a top setup man, although after Thursday's performance, his faith may be shaken a bit. Heilman entered a tie game in the sixth with runners on second and third and two outs. The batters he faced went: walk, grand slam, single, single, strikeout. If Willie stops using Heilman in keys spots for a while, Sanchez and Smith may be able to pick up some of the slack, as may Feliciano if he can relocate the strike zone. But if the Mets keep playing close games in which their starters leave after or during the sixth inning, we'll probably continue to see Heilman on the mound with the game on the line.

With all that on their minds, the Mets (11-10) return home this weekend to host the Braves (11-11). Mike Pelfrey (2-0, 3.18, 9:6 K:BB), John Maine (1-2, 3.57, 16:14) and Nelson Figueroa (1-1, 4.05, 16:10) will take on Jair Jurrjens (2-2, 3.20, 21:9), Tim Hudson (3-1, 2.93, 16:5) and John Smoltz (3-1, 0.78, 31:6), respectively. This weekend will also see the return of someone who has not been seen at Shea Stadium in many months and who may be just what this team needs to turn its luck around. Yes, if you look out to left field on Saturday, you may see the familiar face of...me, up in the mezzanine level. Also possibly Moises Alou on the field.

Fun with numbers

Tigers are undefeated and score 19 runs/game with Curtis Granderson in the lineup.

Six of the last 11 Tigers' games have featured a team scoring double figures (four times by Detroit).

Magglio Ordonez reached 1,000 career RBI on Tuesday.

Detroit has 98 BBs this season, tied for tops in the AL.

Tigs are 11-for-11 in SB attempts.

Detroit is 7-3 in last 10 games, batting .304/.395/.519 during span.

Tigers on the move

Detroit announced Miguel Cabrera is moving from 3B to 1B and Carlos Guillen is moving from 1B to 3B. Neither player was having a good season in the field, so this might help. It could definitely help Cabrera so he won't have to worry as much about playing defensively. He must have felt some pressure taking over for a defensive wiz at 3B.

Curtis Granderson could be in the lineup soon -- maybe tonight. Placido Polanco could return as well. Just 21 games into the campaign and only Magglio Ordonez and Edgar Renteria have played every contest this year.

The Tigers bullpen could get a boost soon. Francisco Cruceta, who was long delayed in getting to the U.S. because of visa trouble, tossed 3 scoreless, hitless innings for Triple-A Toledo last night. He struck out 6.

Denny Bautista (0.96 ERA) has been solid in the pen. Aquilino Lopez has an ERA of 0.63, but has allowed 6 of 14 inherited runners to score, a tad on the high side.

Justin Verlander pitched better last night, but still doesn't seem to be his old self.

Listen to Hank!

Hank Steinbrenner says Joba Chamberlain should be a starter, and for once in my life I find myself in full support of a Steinbrenner. Send Joba to the minors for a month and then limit him to pitching every fifth day. Please!

Last year, Joba appeared in 19 regular-season games after his August call-up. The Yankees went 17-2 in those games (both defeats came in extra innings). Four times he entered games with the Yankees ahead by a run; three times the game was tied and once the Yanks trailed by a run. Otherwise, he made five appearances with NY up by 2 or 3 runs and 6 appearances with the Yankees ahead by more than 3 runs.

If he was a starter during that time, he probably would have made 10 starts and left a void in the 7th and 8th innings. Even if he was 10-0, I don’t think he would have surpassed the value he provided the Yankees by making 13 appearances in close games. Five times he pitched 2 innings and three other times he went more than 1 inning.

Putting Joba in the rotation essentially cuts in half the number of games in which he can appear. I’m all for that.

Seven & Seven

The Tigers opened the season with 7 consecutive losses and now have finally arrived at 7 wins, albeit not in a row. Detroit is 7-6 since its disastrous start. Here are some numbers:

First 7 games
Pitching: .278/.366/.452
Hitting: .234/.308/.332

Next 13 games
Pitching: .251/.360/.402
Hitting: .263/.352/.408

The White Sox's numbers for the season are .248/.319/.327 on the pitching side and .242/.336/.423 on the hitting side.

I'd have to think the Sox can't sustain the pitching line while the Tigers pitching, particularly the starters, can't get worse.

Detroit faces Texas next in a battle between the two worst teams in the AL. This could be a chance for the Tigs to get well.

Arm - and - ohs

Armando Galarraga has been with the Tigers for a week and now leads the team in wins with 2. He pitched 5-1/3 scoreless innings today for Detroit to help get a split in Toronto.

An MLB.com story reports that Dontrelle Willis is making progress in coming back from his hyperextended knee injury. It also claims Willis' return will be "a major boost" to the Tigers' rotation. Considering Galarraga is in Willis' spot, I'm not sure. Of course, the way the remainder of the starters are throwing, Willis' return probably can't hurt.

Detroit's win today coupled with Texas' loss in Boston pulls the Tigs into a tie with the Rangers for the worst record (7-13) in the AL.

Statistical Analysis

The Baltimore Orioles are 11-7 through 18 games, on pace to win 99 , in 2nd place and a mere 1/2 game out of first in the AL East.

I have seen the games.

I have analyzed the numbers.

It is impossible to discern how they've done it.

Ouch, again

I see how this season is gonna be. Score 11, give up 11. Justin Verlander's struggles are becoming a concern. His velocity is down, which is either indicative of an injury or is because the Tigers want him to ease up on the gas in favor of control and longevity. If it's the latter, it could be another example of a team messing up a good thing. Now he's got no heat and no control.

Verlander's woes have taken the heat off Zach Miner, who might be Zach Minor (as in league) soon.

Miguel Cabrera turns 25 today. At least that's his story. He's batting .361/.385/.583 in last 9 games.

Detroit's pitchers with a runner in scoring position and 2 outs: .384/.477/.479. With a runner on third and less than two outs: .407/.477/.926. Yes, that says .926 SLG, thanks to giving up 4 HR in those situations.

The 6th and 7th innings have been tough for the pitchers. In the 6th: .370/.461/.699. In the 7th: .328/.423/.433. The 8th is only better by comparison: .288/.386/.424. Foes have scored 27 times in the 6th, 16 in the 7th and 13 in the 8th.

Tigers go 4 against Toronto. Kenny Rogers, Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson and Armando Galarraga go for Detroit, which will miss Roy Halladay. I guess we'll hope for a split, but I've about given up trying to figure out this squad.

One year ago today

Joe posted this headline on DTFT:

"At least the Phillies can look forward to a good draft pick next year"

Memories.

Three at last

A bona fide win streak! Detroit's bats kept thumping last night and (more importantly, I think) Armando Galarraga, subbing for Dontrelle Willis, delivered a great start (6-2/3 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 6 K). His effort was only the second quality start for the Tigs so far this season.

Hard to believe Detroit went from back-to-back shutouts to 30 runs in 3 games. The Tigers are 5-2 when scoring 5 runs or more. They are 0-8 when scoring 4 runs or less.

Nine of Detroit's first 12 HR were solo. Last night, not so. Edgar Renteria went salami and Miguel Cabrera had a 2-run jack.

I think the Tigs missed Curtis Granderson more than expected. So far, the production from the leadoff spot is the worst in the AL (.234/.275/.281 with 2 R). Consequently, perhaps, Placido Polanco has struggled in the No. 2 spot, which also has the worst production in the AL. Those weaknesses make any slumps more pronounced -- especially when almost the entire team is slumping at the same time.

Entering this 2-game series against Cleveland, I was thinking split. Now I'm in sweep mode. The Indians are down and Detroit needs to take advantage, just like teams did against them. Let's make it 4 in a row.

Punk'd

Did the Phillies ruin Kyle Kendrick when they punk'd him this spring, as some have suggested? Kendrick's got a 6.14 ERA in 2 starts so far this season. Many didn't expect him to have another year like 2007 when he was 10-4 with a 3.87 ERA. For one thing, he only struck out 3.8/9 IP and he gave up 1.25 HR/G. He only walked 2/9 IP, but his stats certainly were aided by him stranding a ridiculous 78% of baserunners.

But Kendrick's start probably isn't as bad as it looks. The Phillies turned 71.9% of balls in play into outs last season, which I don't think is an unusually high figure. This year, the number is 65.7%, which is a little low. Walks have hurt Kendrick, but he's got a 57.6 groundball percentage, which is an improvement over last year. Unfortunately, his line drive figure is 6% higher, too, which might contributed to that low DER.

Kendrick should improve, I think.

That's 2!

Gary Sheffield, Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Guillen and Miguel Cabrera hit homers last night to help lift Detroit to a 6-5 win and sweep the Twins in a 2-game set. The boppers are starting to bop. Finally, a win streak!

Still, the Tigers are 4-10 and visit Cleveland next. Fortunately, the Indians are reeling after getting punched around in the late innings by Boston. Tonight Detroit sends Armando Galarraga to the mound, taking the place of Dontrelle Willis. The Indians counter with C.C. Sabathia, who has struggled. Justin Verlander vs. Fausto Carmona in Game 2. I'd be happy with a split.

If it's going to take 94 wins to reach the playoffs, Detroit needs to go 90-58 the rest of the way. That's .608 ball. Not impossible, but not easy. Particularly if the pitching remains suspect and the hitting erratic.

Six of one, half a dozen of the other

Twelve games into the season, the Mets' record sits at an even .500. This despite the fact that they have outscored their opponents 64-47. Some things have not gone as planned, as evidenced by the fact that Scott Schoeneweis has thrown more innings than Pedro Martinez. But there have also been some pleasant surprises, and I'm not just talking about Angel Pagan's ridiculous .381/.462/.500 start.

Coming out of Spring Training, the Mets' starting rotation didn't seem to have much depth behind the top four starters. When Pedro went down and Orlando Hernandez's foot continued to keep him out of action, the situation seemed dire. But the Mets' fifth and sixth starters, Mike Pelfrey and Nelson Figueroa, have held their own. After Pelfrey's terrific seven shutout innings on Tuesday, they have combined for a 2.70 ERA in 20 innings with 14 strikeouts and 7 walks. Figueroa (nickname suggestion: Nellie Figs) may not be anything more than a decent spot starter, but he did give the Mets eight innings in his debut and if he can keep his ERA around its current level of 4.50, he will have some value at the back of the rotation. Pelfrey's hot start is more intriguing. He had a solid debut, allowing two runs in five innings, and followed it up with the best start of his young major league career. If he can begin to make good on the potential he showed in the minors and in college, the Mets' rotation would be all the more formidable.

Some other notable things happened at Shea on Tuesday. Lastings Milledge made his return to Shea and smacked a double in his first at bat. He was thrown out trying to steal third, but replays showed him to be safe. He later drew a walk. Ryan Church and Brian Schneider combined for just a single and a walk while defensive wizard Schneider allowed his third passed ball of the season. Luckily the Mets still have Jose Reyes and David Wright, who combined for seven hits including for extra bases. And Duaner Sanchez made his long-awaited return to the majors, pitching a scoreless ninth with one hit and one strikeout.

The Mets (6-6) will finish up this series with John Maine (0-1, 4.50, 6:8 K:BB) and Figueroa (1-0, 4.50, 7:3 K:BB) on the hill the next two nights. Lefties Matt Chico (0-2, 3.72 12:4 K:BB) and John Lannan (0-2, 6.75 6:7 K:BB) will take the ball for the Nationals.

It's a win!

OK, it wasn't pretty but at this point we'll take whatever we can get. The Tigers went 24 innings without scoring, then erupted for 11 runs in 3 frames. Maybe the fact Pudge Rodriguez hit a ball to the warning track that ended up a HR after bouncing off the fielder's glove is a sign this is going to turn around for Detroit.

Still, the Tigs made 3 errors and the bullpen gave up 4 runs after Detroit closed within 5-4. They've still only gotten 1 quality start this season and the starters have a 6.31 ERA.

The Tigers are 3-2 when scoring 5 or more runs.

But enough of the nitpicking. Maybe Detroit can start a win streak now.

It can only get better, right?

So Jim Leyland finally saw enough and lost it on the boys. Wonder if he threw bats in the shower.

Leyland: You guys. You lollygag the ball around the infield. You lollygag your way down to first. You lollygag in and out of the dugout. You know what that makes you? Andy!
Andy (Van Slyke): Lollygaggers!
Leyland: Lollygaggers. What's our record, boy?
Andy: Two and ten.
Leyland: Two and ten! How the hell did we ever win two?
Andy: It's a miracle.
Leyland: It's a miracle!

The Lancaster Barnstormers are my new favorite team.

I'd like to offer analysis of the Tigers pathetic start to the season, but what really can you say? The numbers are as awful as the win-loss record. They can't hit (.235/.322/.335), they can't pitch (5.94 ERA/1.63 WHIP) and they can't field. Curtis Granderson, Carlos Guillen, Miguel Cabrera, Gary Sheffield and Dontrelle Willis all have missed time with injuries. Amazingly, they've not been buried in the AL Central.

The next two weeks will determine whether this is a bad team or simply a team that had a bad stretch to open the season.

Hey Willie!

Von Hayes is managing the Lancaster Barnstormers.

One and done

I figured the Tigers would go 1-2 in Boston, which is what they did. That leaves the expectation gauge at -4. Ahead is a 3-game set in Chicago. It's Dontrelle Willis vs. Jose Contreras tonight followed by Justin Verlander against Gavin Floyd and Kenny Rogers vs. Mark Buehrle. Looking at those matchups, I'm going to go out on a limb and say Detroit wins 2 of 3. They should have an advantage tomorrow and the other two are toss ups. The Tigs need to start winning some toss ups. Actually, winning of any kind would be appreciated.

MLB.com reported that Detroit's pitchers tossed 212 pitches last night, 113 for strikes. Nate Robertson breezed early and struggled with command later. Tigers have yielded 47 BBs this year, second most in MLB, and .289 BA, which is third worst in MLB. A bad combo. The .830 OPS against them is worst. They're throwing 3.92 pitchers/plate appearance, which is fourth worst in bigs.

The starters need to get it together and get deeper into games, particularly to save this bullpen. Jeremy Bonderman is averaging 16.32 pitches per inning, the best among Detroit's starters. Robertson is the worst at 19.16. By comparison, Toronto's Roy Halladay is averaging 13.47 pitches per inning. KC's Zach Greinke is at 13.73. Minnesota's Boof Bonser at 13.85.

Finally

It took much longer than expected, but the Tigers got victory No. 1. It wasn't a perfect performance, and some of the early season bugaboos (fielding, LOB, in particular) continued, but the bats finally woke up a bit. Detroit got 10 hits and 8 walks while only fanning twice. Defensively, there were 2 errors but also 4 DPs.

Jeremy Bonderman was good enough, and didn't fall apart when his defense let him down. Bobby Seay was terrific and Todd Jones made it interesting in the 9th. Bonderman, reportedly, went without his changeup last night and threw only fastballs and sliders.

Pudge Rodriguez got career hit No. 2,500 last night. He is the 87th player to reach that level.

The bottom of the order really delivered: Carlos Guillen had 3 runs thanks to 2 BBs and a HR; Edgar Renteria had 3 hits, including 2 doubles, and drove in 2 while scoring 2; Marcus Thames had a 2-run HR; and Brandon Inge had a 2-run single in the eighth to break open a 4-2 game.

I figured on one win in Boston, so if the Tigs can get another tonight it would be a great step forward. Nate Robertson faces Tim Wakefield. Maybe Magglio Ordonez busts loose; he's got a .455 BA and .788 SLG vs. Wakefield. Robertson hasn't had much success at Fenway (7.56 ERA in 16-2/3 IP) but has held David Ortiz to a .158 BA in 19 career ABs.

Oh, the horror

When will it end? The Tigers are 0-7 and no team has ever started 0-7 and made the postseason, so one week into the campaign and I'm forced to look at a situation that, at least historically, is hopeless. For some reason I thought a photo of a Tiger seemingly over-run by piglets was appropriate.

Detroit has been outscored by 29 runs in seven games. The Tigs have only scored 15 runs while the AL average at this point is 32. This is mindboggling bad for a team with so much talent.

Here are some other offensive numbers vs. the AL average:

BA .234 - .255

OBP .308 - .328

SLG .332 - .399

P/PA 3.71 - 3.76

GB% 43 - 46

LD% 18 - 17

BABIP .276 - .286

BARISP .140 - .255

The two most glaring stats, to me, are the average with RISP and the OPS. The Tigers' SLG of .332 is obviously awful -- and then consider Juan Pierre has a career .373 SLG and even managed .353 without a HR last season -- and you really feel sick.

It would seem the Tigers have had some degree of bad luck, although I think it's minor because I haven't really seen Detroit batters stinging the ball.

Here are pitching stats vs. the AL average:

ERA 5.20 - 3.98

DER .688 - .701

LD% 15 - 17

GB% 45 - 46

IF/Fly% 18 - 17

K/G 5.3 - 6.2

BB/G 4.3 - 3.2

HR/G 0.90 - 0.93

SLG .452 - .399

LOB% 64 - 73

The strikeouts, walks and LOB% jump out. Also, the DER, which was closer to the league average prior to yesterday's game. The infield defense has been getting ripped by fans, particularly Carlos Guillen's play around the bag at first and Miguel Cabrera's at third. Even Placido Polanco has been dragged down, making his first E in more than a year. I know it's early, but Cabrera's range-zone rating on Hardball Times is a pathetic .455. Polanco's has dropped to an AL worst .636 among 2Bs.

If the Tigs are going to walk more batters, strikeout fewer and get to fewer balls than the average AL team, there is no way they will overcome this 0-7 start.

Welcome to Boston

Tigers start a 3-game series this afternoon in Boston. Kenny Rogers faces Daisuke Matsuzaka. Tomorrow night it’s Jeremy Bonderman against Jon Lester and Thursday it’s Nate Robertson vs. Tim Wakefield. Expectation level: 1-2.

Rogers is 5-6 with a 5.48 in 90.1 IP at Fenway Park. That’s 24 games, 14 starts.

Detroit’s starters are 0-3 with a 5.82 ERA this year. They’ve given up 32 hits and 16 walks in 34 IP. They’ve got 20 K. The relievers are 0-3 with a 4.50 ERA in 22 IP. They’ve given up 25 hits and 11 walks while striking out 15.

Yorman Bazardo, Aquilino Lopez and Jason Grilli have combined to permit all 7 of the first batters they’ve faced to reach base. Overall, the bullpen has allowed 9 of 19 first batters to get on. (Boston has allowed 4 of 19 to reach.)

The Red Sox are off to a slow start, but might be energized by finally coming home. Boston opened the campaign with an 18-day, 4-city, 3-nation road trip, logging about 16,000 miles.

Dice-K is coming off a sharp outing against Oakland in which he retired 16 of the final 17 batters he faced. Last year, he got his first CG against Detroit, winning at Fenway. This is probably not the guy the Tigs want to face while in a funk. If they're patient, they might have a chance, but if they're pressing he could make them look silly with his assortment of crazy moving pitches.

Pathetic

OK. It wasn't the day games.

Detroit looked awful last night on national TV. The Tigers got 9 hits and 3 BB and only K'd twice, but hit into 5 DPs and rarely stung any balls. Justin Verlander gave up a leadoff HR to Nick Swisher and the rout was on. The ugliness wasn't all on Verlander as 5 of the 9 runs he yielded were unearned.

Two teams since 1903 have made the postseason after starting the year 0-6. Of course, much of that time doesn't include the wild card era. Also, I don't know the number of teams to start 0-6. So while that stat seems daunting, I'm not sure it matters. I would guess most of those 0-6 starters were truly bad teams, and I don't believe the Tigers fall into that category, although I would have little to back up that assertion at the moment.

With the way the pitching went last night, not much was going to save Detroit. However, I hated Jim Leyland's lineup with Pudge Rodriguez and Marcus Thames in the 1-2 spots. Both guys have posted OBPs below .300 two of the last three seasons. I don't think this is the way to jump start the offense. Poor Edgar Renteria hasn't seen the No. 1 spot since getting 3 hits from it the second game of the campaign.

Detroit's offense is .245/.316/.358 at this point. Blech! At this rate, the Tigs will be challenged to top 400 runs for the season, much less the 1,000 many thought they could reach. But the offensive woes don't mean Detroit is relegated to losing. The Yankees are .239/.291/.367 and have scored only 2 more runs than the Tigers, yet are 3-3.

The Tigers' ERA is 5.30, which is worst in the AL, and their .768 OPS against is 12th.

Maybe Detroit can find itself on the road. It won't be easy with Boston next up.

O's Atop AL

The Baltimore Orioles are 4-1 and stand atop the AL after Week 1 of regular season competition. How can this be?

The O's had the fewest at-bats (158) and the fewest hits (43) in the AL in Week 1. They also struck out the least (26), drew the 5th most walks (21) , stole the most bases (7) and scored the 6th most runs (27). They clearly squeezed all the blood out of that stone.

O's pitching walked 3.4 per 9 IP in Week 1 compared with 4.4 per 9 IP in 2007. The bullpen allowed 2 runs in 18 1/3 IP and those 2 runs were given up when the O's had a 5 run lead.

The O's came from behind to win 3 games.

Lastly, it appears that right now may be the best time all season to be playing Seattle. The Mariners are in a funk. J.J. Putz is out. Erik Bedard missed his turn in the rotation with an inflamed hip. The defense played awful and the Mariner bullpen started fires and poured gas on them.

Daniel Cabrera starts on the mound for the Orioles today. The enigmatic flame thrower had what has become a typical performance in his season debut going 4 innings and surrendering 5 walks, 6 hits and 6 runs. He is tough when he throws strikes. Maybe he'll throw strikes today and the 2008 Week 1 fantasy can continue.

At least I'm not a Tigers fan

The Mets' season is five games old, so I think it's about time I start complaining about Willie Randolph's bullpen management. I will give him some credit for apparently having figured out how to use Scott Schoeneweis. In Schoeneweis's first two appearances, he faced a single lefty and in his third, he faced a lefty and a switch hitter. Of course, that third lefty got a run-scoring hit and the switch hitter was Chipper Jones, but it's a step in the right direction. Last April, Schoeneweis pitched at least an inning in more than half of his appearances. He gave up eight walks and seven hits in nine and two-thirds innings. So far this year, he's retired three of four batters.

Randolph's usage of another lefty has been a bit more confusing. Pedro Feliciano, the team's second or third best reliever, has made just one appearance and the Mets had a lead of eleven runs at the time. On Saturday, in the sixth inning, with the Mets down by a run, a runner on base and Mark Kotsay and Larry coming up, in came Schoeneweis. An inning later, with the Mets down by two with Mark Teixeira, Brian McCann and Jeff Francoeur scheduled to bat, Willie went with Jorge Sosa. Six batters later, Sosa was still in the game and the Mets were down by six runs. I know that there's no chance of Willie using his best reliever, Billy Wagner, in a tight spot before the ninth inning. But is using one of his "set-up men" before the eighth to prevent the game from getting away too much to ask? Sosa is useful to have around as a long reliever and spot starter, but using him in a critical spot while Feliciano sits doesn't make a lot of sense.

Of course, Saturday did not go well for the Mets from the start. John Maine lasted only four innings in his season debut, allowing four runs on eight hits and three walks with five strikeouts. Starting pitching was not a problem on Sunday as Johan Santana's second start went even better than his first. He allowed just one run on seven hits through seven innings with three strikeouts, but a bad day by the Mets offense against John Smoltz and a bad pitch from Aaron Heilman to Teixeira saddled Santana with a loss.

Mets (2-3) hitters will have a bit of an easier task as they head home to take on the Phillies (2-4) starting Tuesday. Jamie Moyer (0-0, 7.36), Kyle Kendrick (1-0, 7.20) and Adam Eaton (0-0, 3.52) will start for the Phillies. Oliver Perez (1-0, 0.00), Mike Pelfrey (3-8, 5.57 in 2007) and John Maine (0-1, 9.00) will try to get the Mets back on track.

Night time the right time?

The Tigers are 0-5 and clearly don't like playing day games. Tonight on ESPN they will take the field for the first time under the lights, so let's hope the result is a win.

Not much to say about the Detroiters at this point. They've scored first in 3 of 5, but have gotten only 1 quality start and the bullpen has allowed 5 of 10 inherited runners to score. They've only out-hit their foe once, which was yesterday, thanks in good part to Dontrelle Willis giving up 7 walks rather than hits.

The Tigers have a 4.79 ERA, which is among the worst in the AL, ahead of only the Yankees and White Sox (not that Detroit has taken advantage). Chicago leads the AL in OBP (.360) and HR (9) while the Tigers' .312 OBP is better than 5 teams in the AL.

Brandon Inge, who drove in all 3 runs yesterday, and Clete Thomas remain the few offensive bright spots.

Expectation wise, I'd say the Tigers are -4. Tonight, against Mark Buehrle, I'd say the Tigers have a minimal advantage with Justin Verlander. Buehrle struggled in his first start, but is 12-8 lifetime against Detroit.

O's Atop AL East

The Orioles are 2-1 and stand atop the AL East (albeit merely alphabetically). As this is my last chance to post whilst the O's are in 1st place, I strike while the iron is hot.

Starting pitching has thrown 15 of 27 innings and surrendered 13 runs. The bullpen has surrendered 2 runs in 12 innings. The Orioles pitching staff does NOT lead the AL in walks.

The O's have homered 4 times in the first 3 games. They've stolen 4 bases in 5 attempts.

The defense has played well. While they've committed two errors, they've also made excellent defensive plays to nullify the ill effects of said miscues.

Alas, the starting pitching may be the only performance thus far that the O's can sustain.

Oh-for-4

The MLB.com story about the Tigers' 8-5 loss today against Chicago describes the crowd as "predominantly angry." It looks like the Tigs are doing their best to keep from stealing the Red Wings' thunder heading into the NHL playoffs.

Jason Grilli gave up a 3-run HR to A.J. Pierzynski during a brutal 7th-inning performance. But the real turning point here was the third inning after Detroit tied the score at 2-2. Nate Robertson got two outs in the top of the third and then plunked Jim Thome, walked Paul Konerko, gave up an RBI double to Jermaine Dye and a two-run double to Pierzynski.

Detroit rallied again to tie the score thanks to a two-run double by Pudge Rodriguez and an RBI single by Jacque Jones in the bottom half of the frame, but Robertson cannot give up 3 runs with 2 outs and no one on base. Who knows, it might have cost Robertson pitching another inning rather than only 5. If he goes 6, maybe we don't see Grilli today.

Clete Thomas and Pudge went 3-for-4. Miguel Cabrera and Carlos Guillen both had 3 walks.

I'd say this was a game the Tigers figured to win. I'm putting them at -3 in the expectation category. Who know what will happen tomorrow with Willis vs. Floyd. But the Kitties need a win badly and Floyd might provide a chance to pound out a victory.

Quick hits

The Tigers have given up 13 runs this season, 11 of which scored in the 6th inning or later.

Only 3 of the runs have been charged to the bullpen, although the relievers have allowed 3 of 8 inherited runners to score.

Detroit has 3 HR this season, all solo.

Since the start of the 2004 season, Nate Robertson has allowed just 8 HR against left-handed hitters. Mariano Rivera (5) and Mike Timlin (7) are the only pitchers to permit fewer.

Dontrelle Willis faces Gavin Floyd in a FOX telecast Saturday. Sounds like runs.

Miguel Cabrera should be back in the lineup today at DH. Brandon Inge will play 3B and Clete Thomas will be in CF.

Jim Leyland says Gary Sheffield's injured finger should not land Shef on the DL.

Inge, who people worried about being disgruntled after losing his job to Cabrera, has started all 3 games this season and is one of the few Tigers worthy of praise thus far.

I was surprised Leyland dropped Edgar Renteria from leadoff to 7th yesterday and put Thomas in the No. 1 spot. Renteria had 3 hits the previous day. It was Thomas' first career start.

Broom me

No one is shocked to see a sweep in Detroit to open the season. Except few figured it would be the Royals doing the broom work. Another day, another lack of production. At least today the Tigs got on the board thanks to a solo HR by Brandon Inge.

Detroit scored 1 run over the final 21 innings of the series. Jeremy Bonderman pitched well for a while, but gave up a 2-run HR to Alex Gordon in the 4th and was charged with four runs total. The Tigers were without Miguel Cabrera because of a quadriceps strain.

It's a long season, so there's no need to panic. But the outcome of this series is surprising because you had to figure Detroit realistically takes 2 out of 3 at home. So, I'd say the Tigers are -2 on the expectation scale.

Next is 3 at Comerica against the White Sox and then 3 in Boston.

This was fun for about a day

Only the Mets could find a way to outscore their opponents twenty-four to seven over three games and come out feeling like losers. Yes, the Mets' offense thoroughly pounded what passes for major league pitching in the Florida Marlins organization. And yes, the Mets got a good first start from their big offseason acquisition and an even better one from their talented but inconsistent third starter. But who cares? Pedro's hurt again.

After making it though five fall starts, the whole offseason and all of Spring Training with his arm intact, Pedro Martinez was felled by a strained hamstring less than four innings into his 2008 season. He'll be out for at least a month and probably more. For the moment the task of replacing him will fall to Nelson Figueroa who, prior to tonight, hadn't pitched in the majors since 2004. Orlando Hernandez could help if he ever figures out how to throw the ball to the plate without his foot hurting him. And all of this is dependent on Mike Pelfrey pitching well enough to stay in the majors. Johan Santana, Oliver Perez and John Maine still make for a pretty formidable trio, but beyond them, the Mets' rotation is looking rather fragile.

Fortunately the Mets' offense looks capable of picking up some of the slack in the absence of dependable pitching. Every Met regular, aside from Carlos Delgado, had a good series with the bat. David Wright, with six hits including three doubles and one home run, and Carlos Beltran, with five doubles including one that would have been a home run if not for some overzealous umpiring, led the way. In total the Mets hit .330/.409/.486 in the three games. If they can keep up this success once they face a pitching staff whose total salaries are greater than what Santana will make this year, they should be in good shape.

The Mets (2-1) will take on slightly tougher competition starting Friday as they head to Atlanta for a weekend series against the Braves (1-2). John Maine (15-10, 3.91 in 2007), Mike Pelfrey (3-8, 5.57 in 2007) and Johan Santana (1-0, 2.57) will start for the Mets. Tim Hudson (0-0, 2.57), Tom Glavine (1/3 IP, 7 runs...um...I mean, 0-0, 1.80) and John Smoltz (14-8, 3.11) will go for Atlanta. This is, of course, assuming that none of them are forced to start on Thursday when scheduled starter Mike Hampton unexpectedly contracts polio during warmups.

Offensive

If today was any indication, it's clear why the Tigers needed to acquire Edgar Renteria. He produced the only hits for Detroit this afternoon in a 4-0 loss. Renteria was 3-for-4 while the rest of the lineup took the collar (with 8 K and 1 BB) against Brian Bannister and two relievers. Bannister's dominance no doubt stems from his embracing sabermetrics.

Kenny Rogers pitched well for the Tigers, giving up 2 runs in 6 IP. He fanned 4 and walked 1. Once again, though, KC came through with two-out hits. All 4 runs scored after two were away.

Opening the season by losing the first series to the Royals isn't exactly the way you want to break from the gate.

It can leave you feeling small.

Talk of the town

Who said it?

"It's going to be a self-fulfilled prophecy. You guys are going to write about it. Everybody's going to wait until late in the game, a lead gets away, and everybody says, 'See? We told you.' The truth of the matter is all of the guys on this staff can get guys out or they wouldn't be here. These are the guys we've got. We're going to go with them. That's the way it's going to be. We need to embrace some of these guys instead of kick them."

That's Todd Jones in the Free Press. Just as easily could be Philly.

Game note highlights

Here are some facts from the Tigers press notes for today's game against KC:

Kenny Rogers can move into a tie for 21st place for career wins among lefties with a victory today against KC.

Magglio Ordonez is 8 RBI shy of 1,000 in his career.

Pudge Rodriguez is 4 hits shy of 2,500.

Gary Sheffield needs 6 RBI to tie former Tigers star Al Kaline for 35th place on all time list, with 1,583.

Finding relief

Phillies fans are already throwing in the towel because of the state of the team's bullpen. This led to a discussion with my brother about relievers.

Some of the fans and talking heads in Philly are blaming GM Pat Gillick for not buying help for the bullpen. I happen to agree with Gillick's philosophy of not giving long contracts or big deals to pitchers, particularly relievers, because they're so streaky. I opined that the best way to build a bullpen was from within, coupled with lucky low-risk pickups, like the Phils got with J.C. Romero last year.

After thinking about it a little more, I came to the conclusion that chasing help can be extremely difficult. Look at the Orioles last season, just as an example. Furthermore, the recently successful teams in the AL (which is where I limited my thought process being a Tigers' fan) pretty much all have relievers that pitched only for them during their careers.

Consider Mariano Rivera in New York, Jonathan Papelbon in Boston, Huston Street in Oakland, Francisco Rodriguez in Anaheim, Bobby Jenks in Chicago, J.J. Putz in Seattle.

Cleveland got 45 saves (and 5.07 ERA) from journeyman Joe Borowski last season, which bucks the trend to a degree, but the Tribes' key reliever Rafael Betancourt fits the profile. When the Tigers reached the World Series in 2006, it was with well-traveled Todd Jones as the closer, but Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya were the heart of the pen.

Minnesota's Joe Nathan came over in a trade from San Francisco, but he had only 1 save in four seasons by the Bay.

I'm not sure there is anything to this quick analysis, but it does seem to suggest it's worth consideration.

Game 1 is no fun

Thoughts from Opening Day:

Some in Detroit already have the sky falling. There’s no doubt the Tigers let one get away, but these things will happen over 162 games. It’s only more noticeable because it’s Game 1.

Miguel Cabrera made a throwing error on the first ball he handled, but later made his first hit a HR. This, in a nutshell, is what many projected.

Brandon Inge’s two-out BB in the second inning set up Edgar Renteria’s RBI single to give Detroit a 1-0 lead. Inge also threw out a runner at the plate in the 11th from CF.

Magglio Ordonez got thrown out at home in the third to end the inning. I didn’t see the game, so I’m not sure if it was a good move to send him. But my general thought is with two outs you go for it and force the defense make the play.

Justin Verlander fizzled after being tough early. He gave up a 2-run HR in the sixth and then walked the leadoff man in the seventh, followed by a single to make it first and third. Jason Grilli and Aquilino Lopez gave up RBI singles and KC led 4-3. Tough situation for the pen with first and third and no outs, but you have to limit the damage to a run, I think; particularly when the second RBI hit came with two outs.

Denny Bautista let the leadoff man reach base in both the 10th and 11th. He escaped the 10th and looked like he could do the same in the 11th, but it wasn’t to be. Again, the big hit came with two outs.

Detroit got a runner to third with one out in the 11th, but Renteria K’d and Placido Polanco grounded out. I understand it was a nice stop by Gordon in the hole.

The Tigers had four doubles and two HR, but it wasn’t enough. They left 10 runners on base, which is too many for this lineup, but will happen from time to time.