In honor of Pudge making the All-Star game as a starter (Sparky needs to get his eyes checked) let’s talk about stolen bases. Thanks to Pudge, the Tigers have yielded a ML-low 18 stolen bases in 35 attempts, also the ML low.That means teams try to steal on the Tigers once every 2.3 games. I would think that’s got to be a comforting thought for the pitchers, who know they can focus more on the batter rather than divide their attention with runners on base. It’s got to be a significant factor in Detroit having the major’s best ERA.
Or is it? Upon further review of the stats, I noticed that San Diego, which has the major’s second-best ERA, has given up a ML-high 69 stolen bases in 79 attempts. And the Mets, who are No. 3 in ERA, have given up 63 SB in 82 tries.
I know that Bill James believes stolen bases to be overrated, and, if I remember correctly, argued that being caught stealing costs more runs than successful attempts create. The White Sox lead the majors in runs, but are 12th in stolen bases. The Red Sox are No. 2 in runs and No. 29 in thefts. Of the top six teams in runs, only the Yankees are in the top six in stolen bases. The Blue Jays are No. 18, the Tigers are No. 22 and the Indians are No. 26.
I must ponder this. Perhaps it is just best to say, and I think Stanley would agree, that stolen bases matter, except when they don’t.
2 comments:
The general sabermetric position on stolen bases is that you need to be succesful about 75% of the time for it to be worth trying. Getting caught stealing decreases your team's chances of scoring a run in the inning a lot more than stealing a single base increases them. For instance, between 1999 and 2002, a team with a runner on first and no outs scored an average of .953 runs per inning. Stealing second would bump it up to 1.189, but getting caught would drop it all the way down to .297. So the fact that the Mets are successful 81% of the time makes their stolen bases attempts actually worthwhile. Someone like Scott Podsednik who steals a lot of bases but gets caught about 30% of the time is not helping his team so much.
These numbers also show that giving up an out to move a runner to second base, as with a sacrifice bunt, actually decreases the number of runs a team is likely to score, though it is generally agreed that it increases their chances of scoring a single run.
I think Joe hit the nail on the head.
The only thing I would add is this:
The statistics cited do not account for the pressure applied to the defense (pitcher mostly) when a base stealer reaches base. This "pressure" is impossible to quantify, which is one reason why a manager will keep sending a base stealer even though he gets caught a little too often. Having a rabbit on your team applies this pressure every time that runner reaches base, not just when he steals.
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