Tuesday, June 26, 2007

Vlad is bad

Most writers and commentators are focused on Magglio Ordonez and Alex Rodriguez as the top candidates for the AL MVP at this point of the season. This is not to be unexpected as both are having great -- OK, incredible -- years. But according to the win shares posted at Hardball Times, neither is No. 1 in the league.

The top spot belongs to Vladimir Guerrero. Vlad has 17 total win shares and 12 win shares above bench while Maggs is at 16/11 and A-Rod is 15/10. Actually, Orlando Cabrera is between Maggs and A-Rod with 16/10. Ichiro Suzuki and Victor Martinez are even with A-Rod at 15/10 and Grady Sizemore is 14/9.

It's a shame Guerrero plays on the West Coast. If he played in NY, could you imagine how big he would be? The median Vlad season since his first full year in 1998 is .329-39-111 with 15 SB and a .978 OPS. He led the AL in intentional walks in 2005 and 2006 (and is tops so far this year). He also is annually above the league average for range factor among right fielders (although below the average for fielding percentage) and contributes 10 assists per season in his median line.

According to Baseball-Reference.com, the three most similar hitters to Vlad through the age of 30 are Willie Mays, Duke Snider and Frank Robinson.

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