Thursday, October 11, 2007

The NL pick

I really like Arizona and Colorado in terms of their young talent. Colorado won the season series, 10-8, but we've already seen that doesn't matter much in the playoffs.

If you look at Arizona's offensive numbers, it seems the D-backs do nothing exceptionally well other than be consistent. They hit .250/.321/.417 vs. RHP and .250/.319/.402 vs. LHP. If there is a reason for concern, it might be that they hit only .248/.320/.386 vs. Colorado pitching and batted just .244/.310/.344 at Coors.

Colorado seems to have a young, colorful group. The Rockies batted .281/.355/.443 vs. RHP and .277/.352/.420 vs. LHP. Pretty balanced. They hit .280/.361/.404 vs. the D-Backs, including .282/.365/.401 at Chase Field.

It's remarkable that the D-Backs don't have a .300 hitter (excluding pitcher Micah Owings, who honestly might be the best hitter on the team) or 100-RBI man, and just one player, rookie Chris Young, hit more than 21 HR. They scored 20 fewer runs than they allowed! According to Hardball Times, Arizona should have won 79 games.

Colorado is not only a team that's been on a roll, but I think it's the better team. I'd give the D-Backs a slight edge in starting pitching (only because of Brandon Webb, plus Owings as a hitter), maybe a slight edge in the overall bullpen, too. But I think Colorado is better offensively and defensively.

If Jeff Francis beats Webb in Game 1, the D-Backs are in big trouble. Otherwise, they've got a chance to force a 7-game series. I have no faith in Livan Hernandez. Owings could be the unknown here. He is expected to pitch Game 4, but hasn't thrown in a while because of Arizona's sweep of the Cubs.

Rockies in 7.

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