Thursday, August 14, 2008

Rollin out of control

Philly fans are down on Jimmy Rollins.
Jimmy Rollins is down on Phillies fans.
This is unfortunate because this season is simply an example, statistically speaking, of Jimmy being Jimmy. He got an undeserved MVP Award last year, which overinflated his already overinflated value to a big league lineup.
Jimmy's OPS+ since fulltime status in 2001: 92, 85, 90, 102, 97, 101, 118, 100.
Take out the 118 last season (which is hardly worthy of MVP status) and Jimmy is right where he's been all along. Last year, Jimmy slugged .531. That's the biggest difference. It was the only year of his career in which he hit more flyballs than groundballs. So even though his HR/FB rate was a rather average 11%, he blasted 30 HR because he put more balls in the air.
I will point out, Jimmy probably deserves better than his .272 BA this season. His line-drive rate is 23.4%, which should translate into a BABIP better than his .285 mark. Historically, it's about 25 points below his BABIP in years with a similar LD rate.

No comments: