Small ball

The Phillies have taught me what small ball really is.

Great pitching.

Philadelphia entered today having scored 4 or fewer runs in 12 consecutive games. The streak continued this afternoon, as the Phils won 3-1 in SD. That makes them 9-4 in their last 13 despite limited offense.

Entering today, Philadelphia was batting .201/.273/.295 in its previous dozen games. The pitching staff posted a 2.57 ERA.

OK, the Phillies aren't exactly playing small ball because they've benefited from the long ball in several games. But it is pretty remarkable what they've done with so few runs.

Winning when scoring 4 runs or fewer is tough. Generally speaking, in recent years, scoring 4 runs gives you a little better than 50-50 chance of winning. The chances decrease with each run less. Here are the win percentages of NL teams in 2011 for scoring 4 or less (not counting shutouts because there is no chance to win):

1 run -- .097
2 runs -- .163
3 runs -- .378
4 runs -- .521

Now here are the numbers for 2008-2010:

1 run -- .082, .082, .156
2 runs -- .172, .229, .251
3 runs -- .361, .355, .387
4 runs -- .500, .535, .568