Swinging a mean shillelagh

It's been a long time since we've heard from Joe. We were started to get worried until this photo surfaced, revealing his whereabouts and activities. Glad to see Joe knows how a leprechaun (like a ballplayer) should wear his socks. This photo was taken just after Joe finished taking BP against Johan Santana. Following the encounter, Santana declared himself ready to start on Opening Day.

Wild and crazy guys

Justin Verlander gave up three hits and four walks in a 50-pitch, two-inning outing on Wednesday. He said he pitched better than his stats. This is at least the second time (Dontrelle Willis) that a Tigers starter has uttered such a phrase. It is a relief because the stats are no good.

Entering today, Verlander's ERA was 5.79, which was edged by Edwin Jackson's 5.40 for best among Detroit's starters (not counting Armando Galarraga, who is on WBC tour). Sure, the numbers are based on a small sample and Verlander was working on new mechanics, but I'm getting a little worried.

Remarkably, the team's ERA is 4.28 despite giving up 54 walks (worst behind only Texas' 57). That's because the Tigers have 15 pitchers with ERAs of 3.00 or lower. Of that group, 10 have yet to allow an earned run. I guess that bodes well for the bullpen.

The pitching has kept my focus from the offense, which is putting up a .228/.316/.396 line this spring. Now, this really is unfair because Curtis Granderson, Magglio Ordonez, Miguel Cabrera and Carlos Guillen all are in the WBC. But it might not speak well of Detroit's depth. At least management is getting longer looks at younger players.

'Fragile' is not Italian

Kyle Kendrick is pitching like a Tiger. That's not a compliment. I mean he is doing as well with his chance to claim the No. 5 spot in the Phillies rotation as Dontrelle Willis, Nate Robertson and Zach Miner are doing with Detroit. And by "well," I mean "awful." Kendrick, according to pitching coach Rich Dubee, looked "a little fragile at times" during spring training. Today, he was broken. He gave up 10 hits and was charged with 8 runs (all earned) in three-plus innings against the Braves. Last week, Kendrick gave up four runs in 2.1 innings against Team USA. He is now appearing in the role of Adam Eaton. Next stop -- Baltimore.

Dutch masters

Last night's game between the Dominican Republic and The Netherlands in the World Baseball Classic was terrific. Even though I'm not a big fan of the WBC, I watched the game from the fourth inning to its conclusion. Eugene Kingsale (in photo) -- a former Oriole and Tiger who was knighted in 2004 -- was one of the stars for the Dutch, along with the pitching staff and pitching coach Bert Blyleven. There was trouble with last night's game, particularly play-by-play man Rich Waltz, who tried too hard to be dramatic, and the fact the MLB Network crew missed both ends of the decisive play. They missed showing the batter reaching first base safely and Kingsale scoring the winning run.

Here is the best quote from last night, courtesy the New York Times and David Ortiz: "I tell you, the whole world is shocked now. Even in Japan, they’re like ‘What the heck?’ in Japanese.”

Hype springs eternal

The excitement around Rick Porcello is building. Yesterday the 20-year-old tossed three innings of shutout ball. He gave up five hits, but walked none. And he showed some moxie by stranding runners on third base in each of his three frames.

This is how Lynn Henning began his story in the Detroit News today: "Subtly, almost accidentally, you can hear in the Tigers' voices and see in their expressions that Rick Porcello is about to become a big-leaguer."

There's still a lot of spring training to go. Maybe someone from the Dontrelle Willis, Nate Robertson, Zach Miner triangle will step up to claim the slot for the No. 5 starter. From all reports, though, Porcello might be the Tigers' best starter and not just someone deserving a spot. Of course, we've seen these stories time and time again. Fortunately, Jim Leyland has refrained from saying anything like, "If you don't like Rick Porcello, you don't like ice cream."

Walking away

Nate Robertson and Dontrelle Willis combined for six walks, six hits and five runs in four innings yesterday against the Yankees. Rick Porcello starts tonight for the Tigers and might have taken a step closer to being on the roster when spring training ends. Or maybe it was Robertson and Willis who took steps back. Either way, I'm glad there's still a little more than three weeks to sort out this situation. Or not. On Saturday, Edwin Jackson gave up three walks, one hit and three runs in three innings vs. the Phillies. On Friday against the Yanks, Justin Verlander walked only one, but threw 50 pitches in 2.1 innings. He gave up four hits and four runs (three earned).

Who Can It Be Now?

2 more have been eliminated in the O's starting rotation sweepstakes. The O's are now down to 32 of the original 37, however, the recent addition of Adam Eaton bumps the original number to 38 and leaves the remaining number of hopefuls at 33.

It still won't be enough.

Young guns

Rick Porcello (photo) got high marks for his 2 innings of work yesterday against Panama. He struck out 3, walked 2 and allowed only an infield single. Ryan Perry, who was last year's No. 1 pick by the Tigs, pitched a scoreless inning, too. He appeared in 14 minor league games last season, all in relief, and had four saves with a 3.29 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. (Perry was a starter and reliever during his college days at Arizona.)

Here is how MLB.com quoted Jim Leyland: "I'm looking at them close. Do they have a chance? They have a chance. Would it be the best thing? I don't know. But I know one thing: You watch, and it makes you stop and look. And at some point, it might make you stop and think."

I have to believe Leyland's comments are designed to fire up the veterans who are battling for spots. I cannot believe the Tigers are anxious to bring Porcello and/or Perry to Detroit when camp breaks. But, I also believe Leyland will do what is best for the club, and if that means one or both of the youngsters is on the final roster, so be it.

Major stuff

Rick Porcello starts today for the Tigs. The 20-year-old (and he only turned 20 in December) seemed destined to head to the minors this season, but with Jeremy Bonderman's shoulder woes, who knows? Here is the way Tigers.com quoted Jim Leyland: "I'm looking for pitching. That's all I'm going to tell you. You can write into it whatever you want."

It still seems unlikely the Tigers will rush Porcello. From what I've read, they limited him to a 75-pitch count last season, so it might be tough to jump to the big leagues. Porcello was 8-6 with a 2.66 ERA and 1.19 WHIP at high-A Lakeland. He threw only 125 innings and struck out 72 while walking 33. The K-rate doesn't indicate the stuff Porcello has. Again, I read he was limited in pitch selection and focused on getting outs early in the count rather than posting strikeouts.

So, we'll see how this plays out. Detroit still has Nate Robertson, Dontrelle Willis, and Zach Miner battling for the final spot (as long as Bonderman is OK) in the rotation. But there is already little doubt Porcello seems to be the best talent.

Hope they didn't dig in

The Tigers faced Venezuela's World Baseball Classic squad today and that means Dontrelle Willis pitched against Detroit teammates Miguel Cabrera, Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen. Given Willis' struggles with control, wasn't there another option? Couldn't Kenny Rogers have been coaxed out of retirement (or whatever) to soft toss to the boys?

Oddly, the number of Tigers facing each other (Armando Galarraga pitched for Venezuela) seemed to gain little attention compared to Derek Jeter playing against the Yankees. I feel a Jeter rant building, so I'm going to end here.

Aw, hell, I can't. They love showing Jeter falling into the stands on that catch he made in 2004, but he'd already caught the ball before he fell into the seats. There have been guys that have made plays far more impressive while in the act of actually catching the ball in the seats. And remember that play Chase Utley made in the World Series, faking a throw to first and then nailing a guy at the plate? Can you imagine if Jeter made that play? Songs probably would've been written about it.

Aside from 1999, when Jeter had a superstar-caliber season, he's been nothing more than a good to very good player. His career adjusted OPS+ of 120 ranks with Shawn Green and Richie Sexson. It's not even as good as Jorge Posada's (124) or Hideki Matsui's (123). An OPS+ of 120 ranks tied for 329 in history according to baseball-reference.com. Not that OPS+ is the be all and end all; I'm just saying. (And let's not even talk defense.)

So, anyway, I wish the Tigers didn't pitch Willis against their own guys and I'm glad everyone escaped unscathed.

Aches and pains

Jeremy Bonderman returned to Detroit to have doctors examine his sore right shoulder. Sparky returned to the medicine cabinet to get aspirin for the ache in his head.

Stanley might be making a similar trip, for a different reason. Baltimore signed Adam Eaton to a minor league deal. Maybe the old "change of scenery" will do Eaton good. I suppose it's a low risk, high reward move by the O's, who are in desperate need of pitching, especially with Rich Hill missing a start because of elbow pain.

Cement shoes

Sparky, Laura, Mark and Mark's mom attended the Philadelphia Flower Show today. One of the exhibits included a statue wearing a Phillies cap. The form of the statue was female, otherwise Sparky was sure it was a tribute to ex-Phil Pat Burrell and his defensive prowess. (Baseball Prospectus might never top the line about no matter how close Burrell appears to a ball, he's still only halfway there.)

Swing shift

Brandon Inge reportedly has changed his approach/positioning at the plate this year. In an effort to get excited about every possible little thing that means nothing yet, we are happy to note that Inge has 4 hits, including a double and homer, in 6 ABs. And zero Ks.

We hope this new approach continues to produce results. Inge is one of those oddities, it seems, in that he sees a lot of pitches per at-bat, but has an awful batting average and on-base percentage. Never has he seen fewer than an average of 4 pitches per AB in his career. The new approach supposedly will improve his ability to handle inside pitches -- pitches he would foul off or miss entirely.

We'll see how this plays out. There was a time when Inge actually wasn't awful offensively. If he could get his OPS back to the .750-.780 range, it might make the Tigers lineup extremely potent.

Late Bloom-er

One pitcher to watch this spring in Detroit's camp is lefty Kyle Bloom. The Tigs picked him up in the Rule 5 draft. He played in the Pirates' farm system previously.

From what I've read, Bloom has got a fastball that hit the upper 90s and a curveball that's already impressed Jim Leyland. Control issues have plagued him in the minors, but supposedly he made some adjustments late last season and finished strong. On the down side, he just turned 26 and has never pitched above Double-A.

He's tossed an inning this spring, striking out 2 and getting a save. He started 111 of 117 games in the minors, but his only hope with Detroit is in the pen. Bobby Seay is the only lefty reliever who figures to be a lock on the roster.

Rhymes and reason

One of the joys of spring training is finding names you'll likely not see once April arrives. Today's Tigers box score included Casper Wells and Will Rhymes. I like those guys just for their names alone. Wells is probably in the middle of any list of the top 20 Detroit prospects and Rhymes is thought of as a utilityman, at best.

Of course, part of my fascination with the names is to avoid acknowledging the pitching lines for D Train and F Rod. The Detroit Free Press reported about Dontrelle Willis:

One inning pitched (faced three batters in fourth), three hits, four runs, two earned runs, one walk, no strikeouts, one hit batter.

"I felt great," Willis said. "I know my (pitching) line doesn't show that, but I felt great. A couple of balls got away from me, and my tempo kind of got out of whack at the end."

Asked what he was happiest about in his performance, Willis said, "I'm happy about everything but the line. But I'm happy that I was able to throw all my pitches for strikes and stay ahead (in the count) for the most part."

I guess I'm happy about everything but the line, too.

It Still Can Only Get Better

An inauspicious start for 3 O's pitchers.  Only 34 left.

Bulking Up

Adam Jones has gained 10 lbs. 

There may be progress in getting Felix Pie into Spring Training, which would add another 170.

Go O's!

Grand indeed

There is no question that we love Curtis Granderson at DTFT. And why not? He busts his butt every day and leaves the batter's box on the fly every time he puts the ball in play. And he's a heck of a nice guy, too. If that wasn't enough, he lists "A Christmas Story" as one of his 3 favorite movies.

D Train chugging along

Early reports from Tigers camp regarding Dontrelle Willis are encouraging. Of course, one might expect little else this time of year. But Jim Leyland said a recent session by Willis was the best he'd thrown since being acquired by Detroit.

New pitching coach Rick Knapp comes to the Tigers with the rep of teaching pitchers to pound the strike zone and is given credit for the success of Twins pitchers (Knapp's previous gig was as Minnesota's minor league guru) in throwing strikes. He's reportedly given Dontrelle, in a nutshell, the same advice Nuke LaLoosh received from Crash Davis -- Don't think, meat. He wants Dontrelle to be Dontrelle and focus on fun and not his delivery.

Dontrelle Being Dontrelle doesn't sound quite as cool as Manny Being Manny, but if it leads to wins for the Tigers, it will acquire a nice ring.

Could Be A Good Sign

O's newly acquired veteran catcher Greg Zaun reports that Koji Uehara has "above-average Major League stuff".

I hope he really means "as compared to Major League pitchers", and not "as compared to Oriole pitchers".

Instant Club Hit (You'll Dance to Anything)

Someone was talking about the Dead Milkmen today, which always leads us to ex-Tiger Jim Walewander. The quirky Walewander might have been forgotten if not for his professed love of the Dead Milkmen, which was even listed on his baseball card. Walewander's career amounted to 242 at-bats over parts of four seasons (he was primarily used as a pinch-runner or late-inning defensive sub). He batted .215 with 1 HR and 14 RBI in his career.

Here is part of the beauty of the Walewander story, though. As a rookie in 1987, he got the Dead Milkmen to visit Tiger Stadium and even meet Sparky Anderson in the dugout (photo). Then, Walewander went out and hit the only HR of his big league career. It came off Willie Fraser of the Angels on July 26. As they say, you can look it up.

Blue Jays' fans might remember Walewander for a different reason. Twice down the stretch in 1987, Walewander scored the winning run as a pinch-runner in extra innings against Toronto. The first time came on Sept. 27 when Walewander ran through a stop sign to score on Kirk Gibson's single and reduce Detroit's deficit to 2.5 games. It started a season-ending 7-game skid for the Jays and the Tigers won the division on the final day.

The positive thinking begins

The Tigers are heading into camp and it's time to be optimistic about the upcoming campaign. Sure, the Kitties were a mess last season, but that's the past. I'm not here to talk about the past. We're coming here with hope for 2009. Can the Tigers return to the postseason? Yes we can.

There are plenty of reasons to think the Tigers can rebound from last year's 74-88 season. First, if Detroit can stay a little bit healthy, it will go a long way. The starting rotation could be better if Justin Verlander regains his Cy Young-type form, if Jeremy Bonderman and Nate Robertson bounce back from injuries, if Edwin Jackson improves on the form he displayed in Tampa, and if Armando Galarraga duplicates his solid rookie year. Then, there's Dontrelle Willis, who could become a functional big leaguer again, and Zach Miner, who adds some depth. Rick Porcello waits in the wings.

The back of the bullpen could be outstanding if Joel Zumaya is healthy and Fernando Rodney pitches to his stuff and Brandon Lyon finds consistency.

Offensively, Miguel Cabrera could be poised for a monster season now that he's got a year in the AL under his belt. He ended 2008 on a tear. A healthy Gary Sheffield would up the ante, as would having Curtis Granderson for a full season. If Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen and Placido Polanco produce at their usual levels, the offense could resemble the feared lineup everyone expected last year.

Even more importantly, the defense should be much better. Cabrera should be more comfortable at first. The return of Brandon Inge to third and addition of Adam Everett at short could alone, if you believe some of Fangraphs defensive metrics, save the Tigers 50 to 80 runs over 150 games compared to last season.

Sure, there are a lot of "ifs" but they're not ridiculous. If some of the ifs come through, the Tigers will be contenders. If most or all come through, they will be a force.

Hooray for Stan

Well done for finally getting DTFT on the board in 2009. And you're right: 37 pitchers probably aren't enough for the O's. Rich Hill could be a big addition, or a bust. Tough call, but well worth the risk, I think. The O's outfield could be exciting.

Ahhhh..... Spring!

The Baltimore Orioles have 37 pitchers reporting to Spring Training.

It probably won't be enough.

Okay, now get Huston Street to pitch the seventh

There are a number of reasons to be less than ecstatic about the Mets’ acquisition of JJ Putz. Here are some of them. The Mets gave up seven players to get three players. They gave up perhaps the best defensive outfielder in the game and replaced him with a twenty-seven year old failed prospect who’s never hit at the major league level. They gave up a young reliever who owns right handed hitters in exchange for one who’s five years older and not quite as good against the righties. Putz missed time in early 2008 due to injuries including an elbow injury. And even if he’s healthy and great in 2009, the Mets will have to pay him $8.6 million in 2010 to be a setup man. This trade is far from a fleecing of the Mariners.

But the Mets did get the best player in the deal in Putz and I think this deal improves the team at least for 2009. If Putz is healthy, he is capable of being one of the best relievers in the league. Having such a pitcher who is not tied to the label of “closer” will be quite useful when a critical situation arises prior to the ninth inning. New closer Francisco Rodriguez was never going to be used in such a situation, but Putz could be leveraged to be the most valuable arm in the bullpen. But even if Putz is merely used to pitch the eighth as a bridge to Rodriguez, the two will give the Mets as dependable a game-ending duo as any in the game.

The most notable, if not the best, player the Mets gave up was Aaron Heilman, who had recently completed his worst season as a major leaguer and restated his desire to be used as a starter. He will probably bounce back somewhat and might even have been able to do so with the Mets, but he would have had to overcome a much more hostile environment than the one he’ll find in Seattle. The Mets could be criticized for selling low on a talented player. Perhaps if Heilman’s 2008 hadn’t been so disastrous, the Mets wouldn’t have had to load up this deal with prospects to get it done. But holding on to Heilman and trying to rehabilitate his reputation in 2009 would have been quite risky both in terms of the team’s fortunes and the chance that he might not rebound and thus become untradeable. Heilman may be a great reliever again, or even a good starter, but he wasn’t likely to be either with the Mets. Allowing them to acquire Putz was probably the most value he could provide to the team that drafted him in first round seven years ago.

No other player involved in the trade is likely to make a huge impact on his new team in 2009 or beyond, but the Mets did lose some nice complimentary players. In exchanging Joe Smith for Sean Green, the Mets get slightly worse at retiring right-handed hitters in the middle innings. If Green is used just as Smith was, this is a minor downgrade. But Green has been a bit better than Smith, though certainly not good, at retiring lefties in his career. This may make him a little more versatile than the young sidearmer.

The biggest loss in this trade is the great Endy Chavez. Endy is not much of a hitter, but he patrols the outfield like no other and probably spends his free time rescuing treed kittens and feeding nutritious meals to homeless orphans. He’ll be replaced in the role of fourth outfielder by Jeremy Reed, who used to be a highly touted prospect before it turned out he couldn’t hit. Reed has a good defensive reputation in some circles, but none of the advanced defensive stats seem to bear that out and in any case there’s no way he could be the equal of He Who Is Called Endy. This exchange won’t make or break the Mets season, particularly if they find a real left fielder in their foraging through the free agent forest (Raul Ibañez DOES NOT COUNT). But I am sad to see Endy go.

The rest of the deal really, really won’t alter the course of the 2009 Mets’ season. First baseman Mike Carp might be a decent bench player or mediocre DH in the major leagues some day, but he is not a future star. I don’t think I’d ever heard of outfielder Ezequiel Carrera or right-handed pitcher Maikel Cleto before last night but it doesn’t seem either is anywhere close to becoming a significant presence in the major leagues. The Mets gave up a bunch of bodies to get this job done and I don’t like to see that, but I don’t expect any of these players to be missed.

The Mets lost a good bench player and a solid young middle reliever but acquired a reliever who has been great for two and a half of the last three years. Having two relievers of the quality of JJ Putz and Rodriguez who can get both righties and lefties out is a major upgrade. The bullpen as it stands right now looks very good and could be great with some luck and/or shrewd lower profile acquisitions. We’ll see if Omar Minaya could make similarly wise additions to other parts of his team but right now I’m feeling pretty optimistic about the 2009 Mets.

In Rod We Trust

The Mets announced earlier today that they have come to an agreement with free agent Francisco Rodriguez. They will pay him $37 million to be their closer for the next three years. The bullpen was the most obvious hole in this team, both in the fantasy land where New York sportswriters and talk radio callers live and in the real world. So it didn't take a lot of imagination to guess what would happen when a young, obviously great reliever in possession of both the single season saves record and a catchy nickname became available. "K"-Rod will not be dramatically more useful to the Mets than Billy Wagner was at the beginning of this year or the end of last year. But he will be significantly more valuable to them than a one-armed Billy Wagner, so this move does a lot to improve the chances of the 2009 Mets. The fact that the deal is short and relatively reasonable in terms of dollars makes the decision even easier. Omar Minaya's job is far from over if he's going to get the Mets back to the playoffs, but this was a fine start to the offseason.

This move is trademark Minaya in that it involved finding a great player and giving him a lot of money. This strategy hasn't always worked out perfectly, as in the cases of Pedro Martinez and Billy Wagner. And it took a good trade to get the process started in the case of Johan Santana. But, much like when Carlos Beltran hit the market in 2004, there was a guy out there who everyone agreed was great and the Yankees weren't bidding on him for one reason or another. Beltran's 7-year, $119 million deal seemed enormous at the time and has so far worked out great for the Mets. A closer like Rodriguez who pitches seventy innings a year can't have the sort of impact that Beltran has had on the Mets, but for this sort of contract, he doesn't need to.

Now that the easy part is over, Minaya needs to get a little more creative to fill some other holes in his roster. A common criticism of Minaya has been that he's much better at throwing Fred Wilpon's money around to attract stars than finding cheap but productive players to fill out his supporting cast. There have been a few good finds on the scrap heap like Jose Valentin in 2007 and Fernando Tatis in 2008. But Minaya's huge payroll teams have also given starts to the likes of Tony Armas Jr, Chan Ho Park and Jose Lima.

Minaya's tendency to err on the side of Guys You've Heard Of is especially dangerous when it comes to rebuilding a bullpen. The most predictable thing about great middle relievers is that they won't last very long. If you try to fill your bullpen with guys who have reputations for success at the big league level, you wind up giving the ball to Scott Schoeneweis 143 times in two years. Minaya could perhaps skirt this issue by getting Brian Fuentes or Huston Street to be his setup man. Those two aren't guaranteed to be great for years to come, but will probably be solid and able to get batters out from both sides of the plate. Even that would give the Mets a lot more certainty in the late innings than they have had in a while.

The Rodriguez signing in an excellent first step to rebuilding the Mets' pitching staff but there's a lot of work left to do. Maybe Minaya will throw more money at a closer to pitch his eighth innings. Maybe he'll give a few minor league veterans a chance to show what they can do at the major league level. Or maybe, just maybe, he'll find a starting pitcher or two who can pitch into the seventh inning once in a while.

NLCS Game 2 Pitching Matchup

Chad Billingsley has yielded an .880 OPS to the Phillies lineup in 83 PAs. Ryan Howard and Pedro Feliz have touched him for HRs. Philly has walked 12 times vs. Billingsley; could be a key. Their OBP is .402 against Billingsley. Giving out free passes in the Zen is a recipe for disaster.

Brett Myers has held LA to a .708 OPS in 194 PAs. Manny Ramirez, Jeff Kent, and Matt Kemp each have 1 HR against him.

Philly got 3 R on 7 H in 6 IP off Billingsley earlier this year in their only meeting against him. Myers faced LA twice, striking out 8 both times. In the first outing, he gave up 3 R on 5 H in 7 IP. In the second, he tossed 7 IP of shutout ball.

Bang ... Zoom

King Cole

The Dodgers have limited experience against Phillies Game 1 starter Cole Hamels. LA has posted a .498 OPS vs. Hamels in 64 PAs. Russell Martin has the Dodgers only HR. Hamels faced LA twice in the regular season and gave up 2 R and 5 H in 7 IP both times. The Dodgers were 31-21 vs. LHP this year; 53-57 vs. RHP.

Lowe down

The Phillies have had very little success vs. Dodgers Game 1 starter Derek Lowe. The Fightins have posted a .598 OPS in 163 PAs. Pedro Feliz (2), Matt Stairs (1) and Chris Coste (1) have the only HRs off Lowe. Chase Utley has 3 doubles and .971 OPS. He's the only regular with an OPS above .775 vs. Lowe.

Manny and LA

Much has been made of Manny Ramirez's impact on the Dodgers. Here are some numbers to consider:

LA hit 74 HR in 108 G prior to Manny's arrival; 63 HR in 54 G after. (Manny had 17 of them.)

The Dodgers' pre-Manny OPS was .697. Post-Manny .798.

Manny's OPS was 1.093 batting in the No. 4 spot. It was 1.367 in the No. 3 spot, which is where he ended the season.

Andre Ethier posted a 1.082 OPS after Manny's arrival. He was at .781 prior. He had a 1.251 OPS hitting in front of Manny in the No. 2 spot.

James Loney, conversely, had a rather poor .697 OPS after Manny's arrival. He was at .810 prior. Matt Kemp had a .768 OPS after Manny. Casey Blake was .753.

It seems Ethier most benefited from Manny. Of course, the Dodgers didn't have Rafael Furcal when Manny arrived. Furcal + a hot Ethier + Manny = trouble. But if the Phils can neutralize that part of the lineup, they have a good chance.

Phillies vs. Brewers

Thoughts looking ahead, as well as back, in the Phil-Brewers series.

Even with yesterday's victory, the presence of C.C. Sabathia makes Milwaukee scary. Sabathia will get 2 starts, which means the Phils need to steal a win today or go 2-0 in Milwaukee to end the series. I don't think you want to go to Game 5 and have to be Sabathia.

I would have started Jamie Moyer today because I think he'd be a tricky followup to Cole Hamels. I'm guessing Brett Myers gets the nod because Charlie Manuel wants him to start at home. This makes sense given that Myers has yielded only 7 ER in 44.1 IP at the Zen since his return from the minors. That's a 1.42 ERA and even includes his rather poor final start. Also, Myers tossed a 2-hit complete game, giving up 1 run, against the Brewers in Philly on September 14. Moyer, with his experience and poise, might be better suited for the road start, I suppose.

Manuel made the right move bringing in Brad Lidge in the 9th yesterday. The Brewers had the top of the order coming up and there was no sense taking a chance on Hamels getting into trouble. Some thought Manuel was dumb for taking out Hamels the way he pitched, but Manuel would have let far dumber if he let that game get away while his 41-for-41 reliever stood in the bullpen. Sure, Lidge made the Phils sweat, but it was the right move.

Chase Utley's double would have been an error on Mike Cameron if I was the official scorer.

Sabathia hasn't faced the Phils. If Philly fans want a reason to be optimistic, Sabathia's worst outings in the NL came against the Cubs, who were the only team to score more runs than the Phils this season.

Thud

Good to see the Tigers playing with pride. Let's see, 1 win in the last 12 games and a move into the AL Central cellar behind KC. It's been a year to remember, but not for the reasons everyone (most everyone) predicted at the beginning of the season. Never could I have thought it would be this bad.

Never did the Tigers get higher than 3 games over .500. They were 15-24 in 1-run games. They lost 18 of 82 games in which they entered the 8th inning either with the lead or tied. (By comparison, KC lost 13 of 79). They were shutout 12 times (including last night) and yet managed to score 19 runs in a game three separate times! After Miguel Cabrera (125) and Magglio Ordonez (98), Curtis Granderson is third on the team with 61 RBI. Armando Galarraga ended up the ace of the staff.

Oh, the horror.

The end of the ride

Todd Jones, aka Roller-Coaster, announced his retirement, and kept his sense of humor.

“So this is it,” Jones wrote in his most recent Sporting News column. “If you’re a Tigers fan, I’ll never stress you out again. If you’re not a Tigers fan, you’ll never have me as your ace in the hole, convinced I’ll blow a lead against your team.”

Jones finished his career ranked No. 14 in saves, with 319. He ranks No. 1 in Tigers' history, with 235 saves for Detroit.

We wish you well, Jonesy.

Tim the Enchanter

Tim Lincecum is having an amazing season, and aside from a Sports Illustrated cover story, it seems to be largely overlooked.

Lincecum's win percentage is .810 on a team with a .445 win percentage (and the SF bullpen has blown five leads for him). He's got a 2.46 ERA and his ERA+ is 174, well ahead of No. 2 Johan Santana at 155. The only NL pitchers over the last 40 years to lead the NL with a better mark are Roger Clemens, Jason Schmidt, Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, Kevin Brown, Pedro Martinez, Dwight Gooden, Nolan Ryan, Tom Seaver, Steve Carlton, and Bob Gibson.

His splits are incredible. Against RHB, Lincecum is .222/.289/.332 while against LHB he's .219/.299/.292. His BABIP is around .300 against both righties and lefties, which indicates his numbers are legit, not a fluke.

With men on base, he's .190/.243/.268 and with RISP he's .163/.234/.261. With a man on third and less than 2 outs, he's .125/.225/.156. Talk about rising to the occasion.

The third time (or more) through the batting order, he's .209/.292/.309.

Consider, Santana is .228/.277/.338 his first time through the order and .280/.332/.441 the third time (or more) through. Brandon Webb's splits for those situations are .205/.251/.260 and .263/.338/.386.

Lincecum, for the record, is .193/.261/.293 his first time through the order. Now, look again at his figures for the third time through. You don't solve a problem like Tim.

He's got 243 K in 215.2 IP.

To me, he's the NL Cy Young Award winner. It will be interesting.

Just so you know

Tonight is the final game ever at Yankee Stadium. In case you hadn't heard.

I'm sorry Ryan

Upon further review, I was too hard on Ryan Howard. I'm still not sure I would vote him MVP, but I can make a much better argument for him now.

Howard's low OPS can be mostly attributed to his lack of production with the bases empty. Howard is .192/.275/.440 with no one aboard. His BABIP is .212, which probably is a result of "the shift." With men on base, Howard's numbers are .306/.395/.637.

He has nearly the same number of PAs in both situations. But he has 20 fewer Ks with men on base, plus 10 more walks.

With RISP, Howard is .315/.436/.571.
With RISP and 2 outs, Howard is .318/.453/.541.

And he's been off the charts good the past month.

Overall, he's got 87 H and 115 RBI with men on base.

Is it enough to be awesome for only half the game and pretty much dreadful otherwise? Albert Pujols' OPS is the same whether the bases are empty or there are runners on base -- 1.104.

Everything's gonna be all right

If you're wondering why I haven't posted anything in a while, I assure you I have a very good excuse. Things had been going so well for the Mets since I last posted that I didn't want to do anything to jinx them. But now that the team's fortunes have taken a bit of a downturn in the last few days, I thought I'd come back and try to talk Mets fans off the ledge. With fourteen games left to play, the Mets have a one and a half game lead over the Phillies and a fanbase and media eager to remind them of last year's collapse. Instead of joining the chorus of naysayers, I will now give several reasons why September 2008 will not be a repeat of September 2007.

Johan Santana. In September 2007, the only Met starters with ERAs under 4.5 were Pedro Marintez at 2.57 and Oliver Perez at 4.45 and neither of them averaged even six innings per start. Tom Glavine, John Maine and Orlando Hernandez all had terrible months, Mike Pelfrey was still pitching like the 2007 Mike Pelfey and guys like Brian Lawrence and Philip Humber got key starts with disastrous results. This September, Santana has pitched 20.1 innings in three starts with a 2.66 ERA, 20 strikeouts and only six walks and one home run allowed. The 2.66 ERA is actually the highest he's had in any month since May and he's been averaging more than six innings per start all season long. Overall Met starters aren't having a great month, posting a 4.90 ERA in September, but both Jonathon Niese and Oliver Perez pitched well this weekend and Santana gives the team something they didn't have last year. He is someone they can depend on to go out every five days and pitch well deep into the game. That's not enough to seal up the division, but it should be a big help in avoiding the five-game losing streaks that befell the team twice last September.

Guillermo Mota. Guillermo Mota is pitching for the Milwaukee Brewers right now, which has been and should continue to be a big help to the Mets' bullpen. The 2007 Mets' pen ranked high on the list of reasons for the collapse, well ahead of the offense, posting an ERA of 4.40 in the second half an 4.63 in September after a 3.67 first half. This year they had another good first half at 3.81 and bad second half at 4.86, but they've turned things around with a 3.03 ERA 30:14 K:BB ratio and just 29 hits and three home runs in 35.2 innings. Sure, they blew two run leads with two innings to go in two of the last three games, but overall they've been dependable. Luis Ayala shouldn't be given too long of a leash as closer, but he has been solid with a 9:1 K:BB ratio and only one home run allowed in thirteen innings.

Daniel Murphy. The young infielder-turned-outfielder is hitting .360/.442/.528 in 89 at bats with the Mets and he is just the best example of a group of young players who are making an impact for the Mets in this pennant race. There's Jonathon Niese, who pitched eight shutout innings on Saturday. There's Nick Evans, who is mashing lefties to the tune of .338/.386/.508. These are the sort of players who would have been left to rot on Willie Randolph's bench. While I haven't agreed with every decision made during the Jerry Manuel regime, he has shown more willingness to play young, unproven rookies in important roles than Willie ever did and the team has benefited greatly from it.

Fernando Tatis. Thirty-three year old Fernando Tatis, who had all of 56 major league at bats from 2004 to 2007 is hitting .301/.375/.489 for the Mets this year. This continues to be ridiculous. I was genuinely surprised when he didn't hit a game-tying three-run home run in the ninth inning on Sunday. If Mr. Two Grand Slams In One Inning can hit .300 with walks and power in 2008, how can the Mets not win the division?

It's not going to be easy. The Mets have a slightly tougher schedule than the Phillies the rest of the way as the Mets have to play the Cubs four times while the Phillies have only the Marlins, Braves and Nationals standing in their way. But while they may have the best record in the league, the next time the Chicago Cubs are a force to be reckoned with in September would be the first. Fourteen games remain and the Mets' magic number sits at thirteen. Good thing I'm not superstitious.

NL MVP

Surprisingly, many talking heads ARE putting Albert Pujols at the top of the MVP discussion. This is good. Unfortunately, I've also heard the names Carlos Delgado, Ryan Howard, and Ryan Braun tossed around. This is bad.

Delgado is understandable because of his second-half surge. But when measured by win shares, Carlos Beltran is the Mets' main man, followed closely by Jose Reyes.

Ryan Howard? Sure, he's got tons of dingers and RBI, but he has been lacking. It's hard to imagine calling someone with 42 HR and 126 RBI lacking, but it's true. He's got half the win shares of Lance Berkman, who leads the NL. Pujols is second, followed by Beltran. Howard's OPS is .845, which ranks between Mark DeRosa and Troy Glaus in the NL. His slugging percentage is tied for 17th in the league. You cannot discount he's driven in 126 runs, but given his opportunities, you get the feeling those numbers should be even better. Howard's RC/27 ranks 33rd in the NL, between Adam LaRoche and Cody Ross.

Keeping it close

I remember when the Tigers got off to their woeful start to the campaign all the commentators said the most important thing was for Detroit to stay close to Cleveland. That was all they needed to worry about because that was the team to beat in the division. Well, the Tigs are just 1 GB the Tribe as we head down the stretch! I can't wait to see the conclusion of this exciting race!

Prince Albert

I'm going to guess it's unlikely Albert Pujols wins this year's MVP Award in the NL, but as of right now, the man stands alone offensively. Pujols is batting .348/.456/.613 this season. He has 26 HR and 79 RBI and 77 R. He's got 82 BB and 44 K. (Aside from his rookie year, the man has never fanned more than 69 times in a season.)

His HR-RBI-R lines will probably prevent the MVP. But his OPS+ of 181 leads the NL and is the second best of his career. His 1.069 OPS leads the NL while he is also No. 1 in runs created, adjusted batting runs, batting wins, offensive win percentage, and times on base. His 28 intentional walks is double that of No. 2 Prince Fielder.

Now, I'll admit I don't know how some of those above-mentioned categories are calculated, but I'm relatively sure that leading in all of them is pretty darn good. Pujols is second to Lance Berkman in win shares, at least according to Hardball Times.

Not to mention he is arguably the best defensive 1B in the NL.

All with a bad elbow.

Fair trade

Catching up with the players in the Tigers-Yankee deal:

Pudge Rodriguez is batting .229/.270/.343 in 35 AB in pinstripes. His OPS+ is 62. And from what was said on talk radio this morning, Mike Mussina and Andy Pettitte don't want to pitch to him.

Kyle Farnsworth has appeared in 7 games. He has a 7.36 ERA and no record. His ERA+ is 59.

Hard to find a more balanced deal.

Brandon Inge, who took over the catching duties upon Pudge's departure, is batting .211/.333/.423 in 71 AB since the trade.

Doing it right -- all wrong

Comcast did a good job being ready for Jimmy Rollins' first AB in Philly since his flap about the fans being "front-runners." Then, as Jimmy was preparing to be announced and head to the plate, the network played an interview with Rollins about the controversy. So instead of hearing the crowd's reaction, which presumably was the reason Comcast made a point to air this portion of the game, you had Jimmy's voice over pictures of the crowd. By the time Jimmy's interview ended, he was in the box and the crowd was mostly silent. Harry Kalas then was left to describe the crowd's reaction. Brilliant work! Maybe the producers used to work for the Outdoor Life Network.

No Mora

Melvin Mora probably never wants to leave Detroit after his weekend in Motown. Mora went 10-for-13 with 3 HR and 10 RBI in three games. He also had 2 doubles, a triple and 6 R. He walked twice, had a sacrifice fly, and no strikeouts.

Mora is one of those often underappreciated hitters. He could have been the MVP in 2004 when his OPS+ was 155 and he batted .340-27-104 with 111 R. He finished 18th in the MVP balloting despite an OPS that was fifth best in the AL. He was second in batting and first in OBP. He was fifth in slugging. His OPS+ was third best and he led the AL in offensive win percentage.

Lifetime, Mora has a 1.056 OPS at Comerica Park and he's got a .978 OPS against Detroit overall. That's his best career mark against any AL foe.

Fortunately, his outburst over the weekend did little to kill the Tigers' postseason hopes. It was Mora twist of the knife.

I got Jimmy's back

I've never been a huge fan of Jimmy Rollins, until now. His whole flap over the fans in Philly has put me forever in his corner simply for 1) stating the truth, and 2) refusing to back away from his comments with a response that he was misunderstood or sorry if he offended anyone.

I had many things to say on this subject, but Rich Hofmann addresses them all, and thoughtfully. Read here.

Rollin out of control

Philly fans are down on Jimmy Rollins.

Jimmy Rollins is down on Phillies fans.

This is unfortunate because this season is simply an example, statistically speaking, of Jimmy being Jimmy. He got an undeserved MVP Award last year, which overinflated his already overinflated value to a big league lineup.

Jimmy's OPS+ since fulltime status in 2001: 92, 85, 90, 102, 97, 101, 118, 100.

Take out the 118 last season (which is hardly worthy of MVP status) and Jimmy is right where he's been all along. Last year, Jimmy slugged .531. That's the biggest difference. It was the only year of his career in which he hit more flyballs than groundballs. So even though his HR/FB rate was a rather average 11%, he blasted 30 HR because he put more balls in the air.

I will point out, Jimmy probably deserves better than his .272 BA this season. His line-drive rate is 23.4%, which should translate into a BABIP better than his .285 mark. Historically, it's about 25 points below his BABIP in years with a similar LD rate.

Zoom boom

Detroit loses Joel Zumaya again and discovers Sheff's troubles this year were from him being too quiet. Here's the story.

We'd care, if we cared

Fans of the Detroit Tigers and Philadelphia Phillies rank among the least loyal in baseball, according to a Forbes.com study. The No. 1 most loyal? The Texas Rangers' fans. Go figure.

Codificater

Alexander Cartwright codified the original rules for baseball in 1845. June 19, 1846 marks the first game, between the Knickerbockers and the New York nine, to be played under these rules.

1. The bases shall be from "home" to second base, 42 paces; from first to third base, 42 paces - equidistant.
   
2. The game to consist of 21 counts or aces, but at the conclusion an equal number of hands must be played.
   
3. The ball must be pitched, and not thrown, for the bat.
   
4. A ball knocked outside the range of the first or third base, is foul.
   
5. Three balls being struck at and missed and the last one caught is a hand out; if not caught, is considered fair, the striker bound to run.
   
6. A ball being struck or tipped and caught either flying or on the first bound is a hand out.
   
7. A player, running the bases, shall be out if the ball is in the hands of an adversary on the base, or the runner is touched by it before he makes his base; it being understood, however, that in no instance is a ball to be thrown at him.
   
8. A player running, who shall prevent an adversary from catching or getting the ball before making his base, is a hand out.
   
9. If two hands are already out a player running home at the time a ball is struck, cannot make an ace if the striker is caught out.
   
10. Three hands out, all out.
    
11. Players must take their strike in regular turn.
    
12. No ace or base can be made on a foul strike.
    
13. A runner cannot be put out in making one base when a balk is made by the pitcher.
    
14. But one base allowed when the ball bounds out of the field when struck.

- Baseball's Book of Firsts

Woetown

Tuesday -- White Sox 10, Tigers 8: Kyle Farnsworth gives up tying HR in 8th; Joel Zumaya's first game as closer ends with a 4-run 14th. Edgar Renteria "E" fuels the fire.

Sunday -- Rays 6, Tigers 5: Tigers blow 3-1 lead in 8th, rally for 4-4 tie in 9th, blow 5-4 lead in 10th. Farnsworth and Fernando Rodney fail.

Saturday -- Rays 9, Tigers 3: Tigers simply stink, save fans from suffering through late-inning meltdown. Did I say "save?" Yes, finally.

Friday -- Rays 5, Tigers 2: Tigers get off to early 2-0 lead, for naught.

Thursday -- Indians 9, Tigers 4: Tigers give up 8 runs from 5th inning on; not even Justin Verlander is immune to meltdowns.

July 25 -- White Sox 6, Tigers 5: Todd Jones yields 2-run, 2-out HR in ninth.

Bombs Away

The Baltimore Orioles are slugging. Flat out slugging. For the month of July, the O's rank, in the AL, 5th in Batting Average, 2nd in Home Runs, 3rd in Doubles, 3rd in Slugging Percentage and 1st in Runs Scored.

For the season, they are 8th, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th in the same categories.

The O's were 41-40 at the end of June and went 10-16 in the month of July to stand at 51-56.

I did not see this coming. In April, I suspected the O's would have trouble scoring enough runs to win games. I did not suspect it would be because the pitching is worse than last season. I did not think it could be worse.

I give the O's credit for not having tanked. It has been their custom to tank at some point in the 2nd half. Some seasons as early as June. Others as late as September. This team continues to play well and wins most of the games in which they get a quality start. Just this week, the O's sent one of their failing starters back to the minors and put another one in the bullpen.

I doubt that this will improve the starting pitching as the O's have nothing better to start games, but at least Manager Dave Trembley is not settling for failing performances.

Goodbye, Pudge

Pudge Rodriguez was the first high-profile player to sign with the Tigers several years ago, and one of the key reasons for the franchise's turnaround. But this is a business, and the business in Motown is finding help for the bullpen, so Detroit dealt Pudge to the Yankees for Kyle Farnsworth.

Farnsworth was despised in NY. He had the best year of his career in Detroit when he went 1-1 with 6 saves and a 2.32 ERA in 46 games before being traded to Atlanta for Roman Colon and Zach Miner. He is 32 and can strike out a batter an inning.

Pudge was having one his better seasons, batting .295/.338/.417. But he's 36 and this was going to be his final year in Detroit anyway. Brandon Inge, the AL's best defensive 3B, will be the everyday catcher now.

It's yet to be known whether Farnsworth will be the closer, but one would expect he will see at least some time in that role.

What a concept

Detroit salvaged the final game of the 3-game set against Chicago with a win today. When it came time to close, Todd Jones was NOT on the mound. The Tigers turned to Fernando Rodney, who struck out the side. A closer than fans hitters. Interesting.

Sickening

The Tigers were 1 strike away from a 5-4 win over Chicago and a 4.4 game deficit in the Central. But Todd Jones gave up a groundball single and a 2-run jack to send Detroit 6.5 games back. I didn't see the whole game, but a Bengal bud says Jim Leyland erred by sending Nate Robertson out for the 7th and bringing in Joel Zumaya before he was ready. The White Sox scored 3 times in the frame.

Nonetheless, it was there for the taking. Jones has allowed at least 1 run in 15 of 43 appearances this season. He's gotten saves in 4 of the games he's allowed runs and blown 3 saves. He's got 13 strikeouts in 39.2 IP. He's got 1 K in his last 11 outings.

Every closer is going to blow some saves. I don't expect perfection. But Jones' numbers clearly indicate he must be removed from the role, even if the Tigers don't have a viable option at this point. Maybe it's time to find out what Zumaya can do. Maybe just mix and match. It can't be any worse, can it?

Must act now

Detroit hosts Chicago in a key 3-game set this weekend. The Tigers are 5.5 games behind the Sox in the AL Central and cannot afford any missteps. A sweep would be great, but 2 out of 3 is necessary.

Tonight, the Sox send Tiger-tamer Gavin Floyd (10-6, 3.52) against Nate Robertson (6-8, 5.69). This is it Nate. Step up. Robertson was last seen coughing up a 6-0 lead in Baltimore. Three of his last four have been atrocious.

On Saturday, Detroit gets Justin Verlander (8-9, 3.95) to the mound against John Danks (7-4, 3.03). Verlander is 6-0 with a 2.30 ERA over his last 8. He is 2-6 lifetime against Chicago, but tossed a complete game victory on June 11.

Sunday sees spot starter Zach Miner (4-3, 3.73) taking on Chicago's Javier Vazquez (7-8, 4.57).

Baseball songs

I'm not sure what to make of this, but the review sounds interesting.

It's about time

After bumbling around for weeks, the Phils finally got the Mets where they want them -- above them in first place.

Getting high

The Tigers swept the Royals in a 3-game set after going 0-6 vs. KC in their first two series.

Detroit is now 3 games over .500, the high water mark of the season so far, with 61 to play. The Tigs were 12 games under .500 on June 6 and 11 GB on June 9. They are 28-13 in their past 41 games and 5.5 GB. So it took them essentially six weeks of .683 ball to cut the deficit in half. There is no margin for error.

Overachieving?

The Orioles have the worst starting pitching in the AL.

O's starters have given up more earned runs, more home runs, hit more batters and walked more batters than any other starting staff in the league; all while pitching fewer innings per start than all but 3 teams (New York, Seattle, Texas).

It's gonna be the future soon

With the Mets in a first place tie, winners of eleven of their last thirteen games while the trade deadline looms like a mythical beast from the deep, lurking just below the surface, threatening to take a chunk out of the farm system at any moment, I thought I'd take this time to peer into the future of the 2008 New York Mets. The next sixty-three games seem likely to culminate in another photo finish atop the NL East, but a lot could change by the end of July, let alone the end of September. Here are a few scenarios that might come to pass and my thoughts on their relative likelihood.

Scenario One: The Marlins win the division.

Not gonna happen. Moving on...

Scenario Two: The Mets acquire Raul Ibanez and Jose Vidro from the Mariners in exchange for Fernando Martinez and Jon Niese.

The Mets are short a corner outfielder or two and Ibanez's name has come up in trade rumors. Martinez, now hitting .287/.331/.414 at Binghamton, is still nineteen years old and the Mets' most attractive trade commodity. The twenty-one year-old Niese has a 3.22 ERA and 104:43 K:BB ratio in 117 1/3 innings for the B-Mets. I just threw Vidro in because he's a former Expo and he can't play second base anymore, so I thought he'd fit right in on the Mets' bench.

If your only frames of reference for Omar Minaya as a GM and the Mets as a franchise are June 27, 2002 and July 30, 2004, respectively, this would seem like the mostly likely scenario. A move similar to this one would be disastrous for the Mets' still thin farm system and not much of a boon to the major league club. Ibanez is only hitting .278/.344/.454 and is reputed to be a terrible defender. Counting on Fernando Tatis, Endy Chavez and Marlon Anderson to man the outfield corners is far from an ideal solution, but the Mets shouldn't mortgage the future (again) for the likes of Ibanez or Xavier Nady.

Mets fans have seen too much to completely rule this out. But right now I feel like if the Mets are going to put too much faith in a mediocre veteran outfielder, it's going to be Tatis. The Mets may make a minor move or two in the next ten days, but I don't think Fernando is going anywhere.

Scenario Three: The Mets keep winning eleven out of every thirteen games and run away with the division.

Keeping up the pace of the last two weeks would give the Mets 106 wins on the season, more than enough to put away the division. If Mike Pelfrey (1.86 ERA, 20:3 K:BB, 29 IP in his last four starts), Oliver Perez (1.38 ERA, 27:11 K:BB, 26 IP in his last four starts), Carlos Delgado (.419/.500/.726 in July), Fernando Tatis (.378/.440/.733 in July) and Ramon Castro (.357/.379/.643 in July) stay hot all year, it might be possible. But that is about as likely as Ryan Church coming back next week and picking up where he left off.

Scenario Four: The Phillies edge the Mets in a close race.

Maybe a change of scenery will help Joe Blanton regain his reliable 2007 form. Maybe Jimmy Rollins will start to put some distance between himself and Cristian Guzman in the race to be the third best shortstop in the division. Maybe every Mets/Phillies game will come down to Billy Wagner pitching to Pat Burrell. If any or all of these things happen, the Phillies could once again narrowly defeat the Mets for the division crown. The Phillies have enough talent and the Mets enough flaws to make this a distinct possibility, but I don't think it's the most likely outcome.

Scenario Five: The Mets emerge victorious in a close race.

Despite the significant disparity in pitcher friendliness of Shea Stadium and Citizen's Bank Park, the Mets have only scored 11 fewer runs than the Phillies. The teams are almost even in OPS+, with the Mets at 105 and the Phillies at 104. After a slow start, the Mets' offense has turned out to be pretty good, thanks largely to a .308/.374/.473 month of July. They've been helped by Tatis's shocking resurgence and the rebounds of guys like Endy Chavez and Damion Easley who got off to terrible starts to the season. But while those gains may be fleeting, this team has the offensive core to keeping scoring all season long. Jose Reyes (.300/.364/.482), David Wright (.286/.386/.513) and Carlos Beltran (.271/.363/.477) aren't going anywhere and Carlos Delgado (.261/.343/.472) seems to have enough left in the tank to be an acceptable fourth best bat. With Ramon Castro healthy and getting the starts against lefty pitching, the lineup is even more solid. The Mets aren't going to be the top scoring offense in the league, but they can certainly remain in the top five.

As for pitching, there are certainly some areas of concern. Pedro Martinez has not been good and there's not a lot of reason to expect he will be. John Maine is having a lot of trouble locating the strike zone, as a result of which, he's lasted fewer than five innings in three of his last four starts. But given Oliver Perez's turnaround since the change in pitching coaches and Mike Pelfrey's apparent arrival as a serious major league starter, the news isn't all bad. And then there's Johan Santana, with a 3.10 ERA and 116:38 K:BB in 130 2/3 innings. He's been excellent though not dominant. If this is all he has, this year will be somewhat disappointing. But he is still Johan Santana and he still has twelve of thirteen starts to go. This could still be quite a formidable rotation by the time September or October rolls around.

Altogether, I think the Mets have a comparable offense to the Phillies and a superior starting rotation. I think the race will remain compelling for most if not all of the next two months, but in the end the Mets will prevail by two or three games. The Marlins will be a few games further back.

All of this action will get underway on Tuesday as the Mets host a three-game set with nem Phillies. Santana (8-7, 3.10, 116:38 K:BB) will take on Blanton (5-12, 4.96, 62:35) in game one. Maine (8-7, 4.22, 98:54) vs. Brett Myers (3-9, 5.84, 88:44) and Perez (6-6, 4.36, 95:63) vs. Jamie Moyer (9-6, 3.90, 73:34) will be the matchups in the final two games.

Hope sinks

At this point, not even Barack Obama could feel optimistic about the Tigers chances to make the playoffs this year. Detroit salvaged a split in Baltimore, but should have taken 3 of 4. The pitching continues to be a point of concern, so it might not matter anyway.

I'd say the Tigs only hope of making the postseason lies with winning the AL Central. With two teams to chase down, this seems unlikely. Detroit has enough games against Chicago (9) to make a difference, but only 3 remaining with Minnesota. And the Tigers don't have a winning record against either this year.

Detroit needs to pass 5 teams in the wild card standings, including the Twins.

Blahton?

I've been busy with work, so I haven't had a chance to comment on the Joe Blanton trade to Philly. I can't assess what the Phils gave up, and from what I've read it's a mixed reaction. It seems they gave up some of the top potential talent in their system, although that might be faint praise.

So I'll focus simply on Blanton, who is 27. He was 14-10 with a 3.95 ERA last year and is 5-12 with a 4.96 ERA this season. The numbers indicate he might have greatly benefited from pitching in Oakland's spacious ballpark. That doesn't bode well with the change to the tiny Zen.

But why the struggles this season? I'm not a pitching coach, but I play one by misreading and speculating. (All the follow stats are from Fangraphs.com.) First, Blanton's K-BB ratio is worse. Last year, his K/9 and BB/9 were 5.48 and 1.57, respectively. This season, those numbers are 4.39 and 2.48. Last year, he threw 65% strikes, this year it's 63%, so there's not much difference there.

His line drive, groundball and flyball percentages all are similar to 2007. His BABIP was .306 last year and is .310 this season.

The only major difference I noticed was he is throwing more fastballs and fewer sliders. His curveball and change rates are virtually the same. His velocity on his fastball is right around 89, the same as last year. However, his average velocity on his curve is up (from 72.9 to 75) as well as on his slider (from 80.9 to 82.3).

So, has Blanton been overthrowing on those pitches? I have 2 theories here. First, the increase in velocity, particularly on the curve, is cause the pitch to flatten out a little and make it more hittable. My other idea is Blanton's increased velocity has hurt his control on those pitches, and maybe his confidence, and forced him to throw more fastballs. Perhaps his fastball is more hittable.

Anyway, it seems something worth exploring. Also worth noting was Blanton was 2-6 with a 3.69 ERA as of mid-May. He was 3-6 with a 6.44 ERA since then.

Delightful

The old English D never looked so good. Now, to use this inspiration to make a postseason run as the post All-Star break push gets under way.

It looks like it could take close to 94 wins to make the playoffs in the AL, and probably no fewer than 90. Detroit has 68 games remaining and 47 wins to date. That means going 43-25 at worst, but probably needing to go 47-21. In case you were wondering, 47-21 is .691 ball. That's pretty ridiculous. Winning 20 out of every 30 is only .667 ball.

The Tigers and Orioles are the only AL teams to get going tonight. Kenny Rogers (6-6, 4.55) faces Garrett Olson (6-4, 5.65). Olson has never faced Detroit.

Magglio is back. He will be in the No. 4 spot, as he has been all season. Marcus Thames will bat third. Brandon Inge gets a start at 3B because Carlos Guillen is in Detroit due to a family situation.

All-Star break breakdown, Tigers pitching

Here are a few interesting tidbits about Detroit's pitching (and, in a way, defense) at the break.

One stat jumped out at me off the bat. (A pun!) Tigers' lefties have an OPS+ 134 vs. LHB. That's the least frequent situation faced, with 431 PAs, but it seems most of the time you're using a lefty to specifically get out a lefty. So that's troublesome.

Detroit's RHP is OPS+ 85 vs. RHB, its best situational stat as far as matchups.

The Tigers have a 4.41 ERA both at home and on the road. At least they're consistent.

Here's an oddity, it would appear: Detroit's OPS+ is 115 in wins and 90 in losses. That, to me, would indicate the hitting is carrying more of the load in victories and is also underperforming in losses.

Detroit has an OPS+ 107 with RISP. The number is 108 with RISP and 2 outs. The hitting, remember was particularly weak with RISP and 2 outs, so coupled with the pitching, that explains some of the Tigers' struggles.

As far as hit location, the OPS+ is 134 on balls to the infield. That would indicate some weak defensive range, perhaps? Not a surprise. Balls pulled by LHB (124) and balls hit the other way by RHB (120) might indicate trouble on the right side of the field, I'd say. The numbers for flyballs (72) and balls to the OF (90) are good, so the trouble is on the ground, again.

All-Star break breakdown, Tigers offense

Even though this isn't the official mid-point of the season, here is a look at the Tigers' offense at the All-Star break. First is Detroit's OPS+ by batting order position, compared against the AL average.

1st -- 111
2nd -- 107
3rd -- 76
4th -- 114
5th -- 103
6th -- 110
7th -- 98
8th -- 96
9th -- 178

So, the only spot in the order lighting it up is the No. 9 spot. The No. 3 spot is trouble and the remainder of the middle is above average, but nothing special.

I would like to see Magglio Ordonez, when he returns from the DL, move to the No. 3 spot. He's batting .307/.376/.490, all in the No. 4 spot, where his OPS+ vs. the league is 110. Overall, however, his OPS+ vs. the league is 134.

Miguel Cabrera needs to hit No. 4. He's only got 51 PAs in that spot, but his OPS+ vs. the AL is 142. Cabrera was brought here to be The Man. Let's make him so. His OPS+ vs. the league in the No. 5 spot is 107.

Carlos Guillen can bat No. 5 and Marcus Thames should see more time in the lineup, preferably in the No. 6 slot. Matt Joyce also can see time in the No. 6 hole, getting time from Thames against some righties.

The Tigers OPS+ is 122 at home and 91 on the road. This is a little surprising because Detroit was a good road team in the past (110 in 2007 and 112 in 2006).

Detroit has a 97 OPS+ with RISP, which is not good considering the potential in the lineup. The Tigers are 92 OPS+ with RISP and 2 outs. Their OPS+ is 82 in that situation when compared to their overall team value.

Twins killing

Minnesota is 9-4 vs. Tigers this season.

Detroit is 13-23 vs. AL Central.

Blech! That's the best I can do.

What goes around, comes around

Today, the Tigs were the ones to blow a comfortable lead. This one hurts. I don't want to dump on Todd Jones, but Detroit needs to find a better answer for the 9th inning.

Jonesy has blown only 2 saves this year (and his defense didn't help him today) but he's been ineffective in plenty of outings. You can't pitch to contact in the 9th, and that's all Jones can do. He's got 12 Ks in 36 IP.

By my count, he's allowed at least 1 run in 13 of 38 appearances. Jones' counterpart today, Joe Nathan, has allowed a run in 4 of 38 and today pitched out of a bases-loaded, one-out jam.

Springboard

The Tigers have some momentum going into a big 4-game set against Minnesota. They rallied from a 6-0 deficit tonight for an 8-6 win thanks to Casey Fossum pitching out of a bases-loaded jam, Carlos Guillen's defense in the ninth and Miguel Cabrera's walk-off 2-run tater.

Jim Leyland said recently he thought Cabrera was settling into a groove. Entering tonight, Cabrera was .319/.370/.537 in his last 50 games. He had 9 HR and 31 RBI. Over his last 25 games heading into tonight, he was .340/.379/.619 with 7 HR and 17 RBI.

Detroit is 22-8 in its last 30 games.

Seven and seven

Detroit smacked around Cleveland last night, with Miguel Cabrera hitting 2 HR. The Tigers are still 7 GB the White Sox in the AL Central. They also are 7 GB the Red Sox in the wild card.

Justin Verlander improved to 6-9 with the win last night. He is 5-3 with a 2.75 ERA in his last 11 starts. His BB/K is 28/58 in 72 IP compared to 21/30 in 49 IP during his 1-6 stretch to open the campaign.

Tonight, Eddie Bonine (2-1, 4.30) goes for the Tigers against Paul Byrd (3-10, 5.53), who baffled the kittens in June. Byrd's been awful lately (1-6,. 7.85). A Detroit victory means a sweep in the 2-game set.

Carlos Guillen owns Byrd: .444/.474/.833 in 38 PA.

Ahead are the Twins and the All-Star break. It would be nice to take 3 out of 4 against Minnesota. That would put the Tigers at 49-45 at the break.

All-Stars by SABR

Joe mentioned a few statistical ways to pick the All-Star teams, so here are some NL numbers based on Hardball Times' win shares and runs created stats (with voted NL starter in parentheses). Win share leaders are shown first, followed by runs created.

C - McCann/Soto; Martin (Soto)
1B - Berkman; Berkman (Berkman)
2B - Uggla; Utley (Utley)
3B - Jones; Jones (Jones)
SS - Guzman/Ramirez; Ramirez (Ramirez)
OF - McLouth/Beltran/Bay; Burrell/Bay/McLouth
(Soriano/Fukudome/Braun)

The NL reserves at catcher are McCann and Martin, so all 3 stat leaders made the squad. Berkman was an easy pick as the starter; Pujols and Gonzales were selected as reserves. Uggla and Guzman were picked as reserves up the middle along with Tejada. Aramis Ramirez is the reserve 3B. The OF sees Holliday, Ludwick and McLouth join the team.

McLouth should be there, but probably with Burrell, Beltran, Hart and Bay. Reyes should get the nod over Tejada at SS. Pujols and Gonzales are OK at 1B. Wright probably gets a slight edge over Ramirez at 3B.

Miller time

Andrew Miller, one of the Tigers traded in the Miguel Cabrera-Dontrelle Willis deal, appears to be finding his way with the Marlins. After going 1-2 with a 9.12 ERA in his first 6 starts, Miller has gone 4-5 with a 3.42 ERA in his last 12 starts. Foes have a .632 OPS vs. Miller in those last dozen, compared to 1.082 in the first 6.

Democracy doesn't work

The All-Star rosters have been announced and, as usual, the fans, coaches and players have made some odd choices. The only Met on the National League roster is Billy Wagner. Johan Santana, top five in the league in ERA and strikeouts, didn't make the cut. David Wright (.288/.385/.508, 137 OPS+) couldn't beat out Aramis Ramirez (.280/.379/.493, 126 OPS+) for the backup third base spot, but at least Wright made the "Final Vote" ballot.

But the biggest Met snub is Jose Reyes. At .294/.355/.482 with 29 steals, Reyes's numbers are almost identical to those of his best season in 2006 and he's doing it in a year when the average National Leaguer is hitting .258/.329/.409 compared to .265/.334/.427 two years ago. Instead of Reyes, the NL bench will feature Miguel Tejada, who's hitting .282/.319/.437 in a much better park in which to hit.

Every year the All-Star selection process yields some inexplicable results. And given the important role the All-Star Game plays both in deciding where the World Series will be played and definitively separating Hall Of Famers from washed up nobodies, I think it's time something be done. Major League Baseball needs to take the decision out of the fat, fleshy hands of fans, coaches and players and put it in the shiny metal claws of a sophisticated computer program. Ideally this computer would calculate something similar to VORP while taking into account some slightly more nebulous factors to make sure the game is still "fun." It could determine numerical values for making sure the home team and city are well represented and stocking the rosters with big-name stars that the viewing public will want to watch. MLB should probably hire NASA to design this program but if that is cost prohibitive, Nate Silver will suffice. Once this system is in place, All-Star rosters will henceforth be perfect representations of the best each league has to offer. This will ensure the fans get the best game possible, the television networks get the highest ratings ever and the grizzled old sportswriters get something to complain about. Everybody wins!

Initial thoughts

Detroit faces Seattle pitcher R.A. Dickey tonight. Hopefully, the Tigers have more success against him than the Mets had last night against J.A. Happ, who took the place of R.J. Swindle on the Phils roster. WTF.

Of course, the Mets struggled against Dickey (7 scoreless IP) recently; the only worthwhile start by Dickey lately (1-6, 8.54 ERA in last seven games).

Armando Galarraga goes for the Tigers. Advantage good guys, who look to inch above .500 again. Detroit has a .973 OPS in 44 PA vs. Dickey in his career.

Joie de vivre

The Tigers started 3 rookies -- Clete Thomas, Matt Joyce and Michael Hollimon -- last night in their 8-4 win at Seattle, and all contributed. I don't believe it is a coincidence Detroit's season turned when injuries forced something of a youth movement. All 3 rooks from last night have posted an above-average OPS+ in their limited action, and have provided some clutch moments, too. Armando Galarraga has been, by far, the Tigs most consistent and best starter. Freddy Dolsi has provided a little spark in the pen.

When the Tigers won unexpectedly in 2006, there was a youthful exuberance on the field. Probably a lot like what's happening in Tampa this year. This year, the exuberance was replaced by a businesslike atmosphere. Compounded by the early-season losing, there seemed to be no joy in Mudville. The young guys bring back that life. And I've noticed it's seemed to spread. The winning helps, of course. But I think seeing guys out there with something to prove might have re-lit the fire in the veterans.

Chicks dig the long ball

I haven't heard much of anything about home runs this season, but I noticed in recent weeks that it seemed a number of players had a good number of homers. Since we're roughly at the halfway point of the season, I took a look at the figures and there are 37 players with at least 15 HR so far. If we double that number, it means 37 players would hit at least 30 for the year. That would be the most players with at least 30 since 2001.

Of course, that pace can be expected to drop off now that Brett Myers, who apparently misunderstood Nike's old ad, was sent to the minors.