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The most prolific pinch hitter in the history of Major League Baseball.

Walk this way

At first glance, the Tigers seemed to have some pretty good offensive numbers last season. Especially in batting average, where their .272 mark was fourth best in the AL. They also led the league with 45 triples and were seventh in homers. They were fifth in hits and sixth in slugging.

Yet they ranked 11th in runs. The reason? Walks, or lack thereof. The Tigers walked just 384 times, worst in the AL. The Red Sox, who led the league in runs and bases on balls, drew 269 more freebies than Detroit.

That's 1.7 extra baserunners per game. Not to mention what it does to the opponent's pitch count and helping a team get into their foe's bullpen. And the Red Sox didn't do it at the expense of hitting their way on, either, leading the AL in that category, too. But that also makes sense -- work deeper into counts, see better pitches to hit.

If you looked at the top run-scoring teams in either league last season, most were among the leaders in walks, too. Oddly, strikeouts didn't seem to matter too much as the Red Sox were right up there as well. In the AL, the top six teams in runs were also among the top six in walks. And three of those squads struck out more than 1,000 times.

Much has been made of the Tigers needing to cut down on strikeouts, which would be nice, but they really need to make strides in walks.

If you're a Tigers fan, you have to believe the starting pitching will be good enough to be competitive. If the starters falter, there's no hope, anyway. If the pitching blossoms, then it will fall on the offense to score runs. That will be the key to the first winning season since 1993.

'Los is a loss

The Tigers released 1B/enigma Carlos Pena over the weekend. It's not much of a surprise given that Pena was batting .160 in the spring and Detroit will only have to pay a quarter of his $2.8 million salary by dumping him now.

I love the quote by Pena's agent, $cott Bora$:

"Jim Leyland is a pitching and defense guy. If Jim had managed the club last season and gotten to make an independent appraisal of Carlos, I think this might have gone differently."

Differently? Granted, Pena is a smooth fielder, but he hit .235-18-44 last year and was dropped to the minors during the middle of the season. Chris Shelton took over at first base and batted .299-18-59 with an .870 OPS (compared to Pena's .802). Plus, Dmitri Young can back up Shelton. He hit .271-21-72 last year and is a lifetime .291 hitter. Pena is a .243 career hitter.

Pena was one of the centerpieces in the trade that sent Jeff Weaver from Detroit. Good thing the Tigers also got Jeremy Bonderman in return. Pena seems like a classy guy, so we hope he can find himself somewhere else. But it wasn't going to happen in Motown.

O's to repeat

The Baltimore Orioles easily have the 4th best team in the AL East.




AL East finishes:

2006 - 4th <-bold prediction
2005 - 4th
2004 - 3rd
2003 - 4th
2002 - 4th
2001 - 4th
2000 - 4th
1999 - 4th
1998 - 4th

No more suspense

The curtain closed on whatever drama there was in Tigers camp when Jim Leyland named Justin Verlander the team's fifth starter. The rotation is set, as are the starting position players.

Kenny Rogers, Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson, Mike Maroth and Verlander will form the rotation. Verlander has a fastball in the high 90s and wicked breaking stuff. This has the makings of a solid group, but still needs to prove itself. There is no doubt a ton of potential.

Joel Zumaya, another top prospect who lost the No. 5 slot to Verlander, will begin the season in the bullpen with the Tigers. There is a report Detroit is interested in Phillies left-handed reliever Rheal Cormier. I guess they didn't see him pitch last season.

The batting order, particularly the top, remains unsettled. But you have to like a lineup of Pudge Rodriguez (C), Chris Shelton (1B), Placido Polanco (2B), Carlos Guillen (SS), Brandon Inge (3B), Craig Monroe (LF), Curtis Granderson (CF), Magglio Ordonez (RF) and Dmitri Young (DH). That looks like some runs.

Everyone better stay healthy, though, because depth is lacking.

Bud better than Bo?

The switch to Budweiser pays an early dividend.

Center of attention

Jim Leyland said that if the season started today, Curtis Granderson would be the Tigers’ center fielder. This is fine with me, and probably not much of a surprise. Nook Logan has tremendous speed and would be great in the leadoff spot for that reason, but hasn’t been able to reach base consistently.

Granderson, who just turned 25, batted .290-15-65 with 22 SB for Toledo last year before joining the big club. He hit .272-8-20 in 162 at-bats. He also smacked three triples.

He played college ball at Illinois-Chicago and was a Baseball America second-team All-American. He was the Tigers’ Minor League Player of the Year in 2004. That season, he played at Double-A Erie and batted .301-21-94 with 14 SB and 89 R before getting a September call-up.

This spring, Granderson is batting .395 with a .531 OBP. He’s got 5 homers and 8 RBI and is 5-for-5 in stolen bases. Logan is batting .188 and has a .291 OBP. He leads the team with 6 SB.

Tearing it up

Non-roster invitee Josh Phelps seems destined for Triple-A Toledo despite a solid spring so far. Phelps is batting .571 with 3 HR and 8 RBI in 28 AB for the Tigers. He’s also got 5 doubles and thinks he could thrive in Comerica by taking advantage of the spacious gaps.

Hard to say if he’ll get a chance to find out. But Phelps is only 27 years old and has shown flashes of being a good hitter. Lifetime, he’s got 57 HR and 212 RBI in 1,203 AB. He batted .309 with 15 HR and 58 RBI in less than half a season as a Blue Jays’ rookie in 2002. He’s got a .268 career average. Most encouraging is that he’s only struck out 4 times, and walked 4 times, this spring.

Phelps most likely would fill the DH role, and could also play first, but the Tigers have got too many players there already. His only hope is to see either Dmitri Young or Carlos Pena traded. Young hasn’t seen much action this spring because of a strained quad, but could be returning soon.

Young is the more versatile player and better hitter. I’m not sure what you could get for the once-highly-touted Pena at this point. Despite his power surges, this is a guy that’s batted .253, .248, .241, and .235 since becoming a Tiger. Notice that each year is worse than the previous season, too. He’s only 27, too, and looks like a hitter – except after he swings. Easily the most frustrating player to watch in recent memory.

Wanted: Tigers

Tigers manager Jim Leyland said yesterday that his squad lacked personality, swagger and meanness. He's not happy about it, either.

Leyland said the Tigers were a great bunch of guys, the best he's been around, but needed to show a little more edge on the field. I guess they need to be tigers, not just Tigers.

Pudge certainly is one guy who can play with a mean streak and attitude. So is Dmitri Young. Beyond that, maybe Jeremy Bonderman. Even so, that's a short list.

Maybe nice guys do finish last.

What are the odds?

According to Benjamin Lee Eckstein/America's Line

To win the World Series:
Yankees 5-2 (favorite)
Phillies 15-1
Mets 25-1
Orioles 50-1
Tigers 75-1
Royals 250-1 (last)

First AL manager fired/resign:
Showalter, Rangers, and Francona, Red Sox, 5-1 (co-favorites)
Perlozzo, Orioles, 12-1
Leyland, Tigers, 15-1
Torre, Yankees, 20-1 (last)

First NL manager fired/resign:
Melvin, D-Backs, and Hurdle, Rockies, 5-1 (co-favorites)
Manuel, Phillies, 6-1
Randolph, Mets, 15-1
Cox, Braves, and LaRussa, Cards, 25-1 (last)

Time to get started

There don't seem to be many questions in Tigers camp this spring. I don't know if that's a good or bad thing.

Only one spot in the starting rotation is up for grabs, and Justin Verlander appears to have the inside track. He will make his first spring outing today, so I'm sure all eyes will be upon him.

Otherwise, it's Kenny Rogers, Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson and Mike Maroth in the rotation. Time for the latter three to take a big step forward this season.

The only other major question is what will happen with Dmitri Young and/or Carlos Pena. Chris Shelton will play first base, either Young or Pena will spot Shelton and DH. Young reported to camp in great shape. Pena has been enigmatic, to say the least, ruthlessly pricking our gonfalon bubble every time our hopes soar over one of his hot streaks.

If Pudge is healthy and happy, that would be a plus. Ditto for Maggs. Hope springs eternal, but if all things fall into place, the Tigers are a playoff contender. Of course, all things MUST fall into place. There's no wiggle room.

Baseball's Sad Lexicon

These are the saddest of possible words:
"Tinker to Evers to Chance."
Trio of bear cubs, and fleeter than birds,
Tinker and Evers and Chance.
Ruthlessly pricking our gonfalon bubble,
Making a Giant hit into a double-
Words that are heavy with nothing but trouble:
"Tinker to Evers to Chance."
-- Franklin Pierce Adams, 1902

Pie-bye Tomas

No one can deliver a shaving cream pie to the face like Tomas Perez. But will the light-hitting, yet popular, Phillie soon be sent packing, along with his Barbasol?

It seems likely now that the Phillies have inked infielder Alex Gonzalez to a one-year deal. That's Alex S, you know.

Gonzalez might provide more power and solid defense, but who will provide the lift in the clubhouse that can only come from seeing a teammate popped with shaving cream while doing the post-game TV interview?

These are the questions that are rarely asked.

Is the new boss the same as the old?

The Phillies trade of Jason Michaels to Cleveland for aging set-up man Arthur Rhodes is the kind of deal that made Ed Wade public enemy No. 1 in Philadelphia.

It would seem new GM Pat Gillick wanted to get rid of Michaels, even though the club denied that his punching a cop last summer outside a bar had nothing to do with the trade. Earlier, the Phils were asking for top pitching prospects in return for Michaels -- and settle for Rhodes.

Now, if the Phillies move Ryan Madson from the set-up role to the rotation, then this deal might have some merit. And if Madson is reliable in that role, then it's like the Phils traded Michaels for starting pitching. So we'll have to wait and see.

Just maybe ...

A gray-haired, straight-shooting manager can lead the Tigers to prominence again?

The latest from Jim Leyland:

"I'm not asking anyone to be patient, I can tell you that. People get sick and tired of hearing that. Tiger fans are sick and tired of hearing that. We don't have that long. ... So I don't have any long-term plans. I have short-term plans. And we better get good pretty quick."

How can this team be Seo stupid?

The Mets have traded their youngest, and probably at least third-best, starting pitcher, and all they got was a couple of relief pitchers and a spot in the starting rotation for Victor Zambrano. Jae Seo is headed to the Dodgers along with reliever Tim Hamulack in exchange for Duaner Sanchez and Steve Schmoll. This may be the worst trade the Mets have made this offseason, and that is no small feat.

In 2005, after his midseason liberation from the minor leagues, Seo had the best year of his major league career. He posted a 2.59 ERA in 90.1 innings, striking out 59 batters, walking 16 and compiling a record of eight wins and two losses. He outpitched Kris Benson and >Victor Zambrano with ease and nearly kept pace with Tom Glavine's post-All Star resurgence. It's doubtful he could keep up that excellence for a full season. But given that neither Benson nor Zambrano has ever pitched that well for even half a season and that both are older and more expensive that Seo, it shouldn't be too hard to see which is the most valuable pitcher among these three.

So, as a result of this trade, the Mets' starting rotation is composed of five pitchers, all at least thirty years old, none products of the Mets' minor league system. I suppose it is possible that they will choose Aaron Heilman to fill Seo's rotation spot rather than Zambrano, but given Omar Minaya's recent obsession with upgrading the bullpen and Heilman's success there in 2005, I don't expect it. So it's Pedro Martinez, Glavine, Benson, Zambrano and Steve Trachsel. It's often been said recently that starting pitching was an area of depth for the Mets. But how can any team be considered deep if they're resorting to starting Victor Zambrano?

The 2006 Mets' rotation got older and worse as a result of this trade. But what about 2007? This offseason the Mets have divested themselves of pitching prospects and now they're ditching any major leaguer with the foul stench of youth, too. Martinez and Benson are the only starters the Mets have under contract for 2007, though they could still control the rights to Zambrano as well. And now, as a result of other recent trades, they have no reinforcements coming from the minors. This deal doesn't only make the Mets more reliant on aging mercenaries in the present, in ensures that they'll have to increase that reliance in the future. To put together a good rotation next year the Mets are going to have to count on continued health from a thirty-five year old Martinez, miraculous improvement from a thirty-two year old Benson and some serious luck on the free agent market. Does this sound like a wise and well-considered plan to you?

And, though I feel like I've asked this before, for what? Duaner Sanchez is a twenty-six year old relief pitcher with a career ERA of 4.19 and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 124:71 in 174 career innings. He's had two consecutive seasons in which he's pitched at least 80 innings and posted and ERA under four. But over the last three years, lefties have hit .302/.361/.476 against him. That would seem to suggest that in order to get optimal value out of Sanchez, Willie Randolph would have to pay attention to such statistics and use him accordingly. That plan is about as reasonable as the one in the last paragraph.

In 2005, the Mets' best reliever was Roberto Hernandez. He was acquired not in exchange for one of the team's best major league pitchers, but for the cost of a minor league contract and a spring training invite. That's what it took to get a relief pitcher who had a season significantly better than any on Duaner Sanchez's resume. Instead of throwing valuable players away chasing a name, the Mets made a smart move and took an inexpensive chance. The fact that they apparently didn't learn anything from its success does not bode well for their digging their way out of the hole they are currently digging.

The cost of this move in 2006, the difference between a team with Seo in the rotation and Zambrano in the bullpen and one with Zambrano in the rotation and Sanchez in the bullpen, may only be a handful of wins. It may be even less than that. The Mets are clearly going for broke this year, and this trade made not impede their march toward the playoffs at all. But the team's recent moves leave me more and more concerned about the aftermath of this approach. Omar Minaya doesn't seem to even have an eye toward 2007, let alone beyond that. The Mets' window to win a World Series with Pedro Martinez and Carlos Delgado may be closing. But I hope, when it does close, that Minaya hasn't slammed it shut so tight that David Wright and Carlos Beltran won't be able to pry it back open.

In memoriam

Some of the former big leaguers who died in 2005:

Don Blasingame
Nelson Briles
Chico Carrasquel
Donn Clendenon
Pat Kelly
Al Lopez
Rick Mahler
Gene Mauch
Vic Power
Dick Radatz
Bill Voiselle
Earl Wilson

National Bohemian vs. Budweiser

The St. Louis Cardinals signed former Orioles drunken party boy/starting pitcher Sydney Ponson to a 1 yr deal. Ponson's agreement with the Cardinals calls for a $1 million base salary and allows him to earn an additional $1.5 million in performance bonuses based on starts.

Ponson amassed a 76-91 record with a 4.81 ERA while in Baltimore, presumably on a diet of National Bohemian ("It's crisp, It's cold and we're proud to say..... It's brewed on the shores of the Chesapeake Bay").

Perhaps the move to St. Louis and a switch to Budweiser (King of Beers) will prove to be an upgrade for the sot.

The last drunk to be banished from the Orioles to the National League was Dennis Martinez.

Adios

The Padilla Flotilla is heading to a new port in Texas. As Randy Miller wrote on Phillyburbs.com:

"Uncle! Or so Vicente Padilla can comprende: Tio! At last, the Phillies waved the white flag and gave up on a reclusive Nicaraguan pitcher who never consistently transformed his so-called great arm and great stuff into stardom."

Nuff said.

How about a closer from Houston?

Yesterday's Houston Chronicle tossed out the idea of the Astros trading Brad Lidge to the Phillies for Bobby Abreu. There was no indication this deal was under discussion by the teams, but it is interesting.

Although it seems the Phils are shopping Abreu for a quality starter (Derek Lowe, Brad Penny, Mark Prior and Carlos Zambrano have all been sought, reportedly), a deal for Lidge could make sense if Philly can't get a starter and decides to move Ryan Madson to the rotation.

The Phils signed Tom Gordon with the idea of him being the closer, but he could easily slide into the set-up role vacated by Madson. It would seem an unlikely move, but one that might have some merit? I think most fans would feel better with Lidge closing -- despite his World Series meltdowns -- rather than Gordon.

Also, the Phils are reportedly close to signing Braden Looper. Unfortunately, I'm not making this up. Looper-to-Gordon doesn't do much to instill confidence.

Finally, Phils radio host Tom McCarthy will be heading to WFAN to join the Mets broadcasting team. Tom is a fine announcer and classy guy. Good luck to him, although he will be missed in Philly.