Tuesday, February 21, 2006

Baseball's Sad Lexicon

These are the saddest of possible words:
"Tinker to Evers to Chance."
Trio of bear cubs, and fleeter than birds,
Tinker and Evers and Chance.
Ruthlessly pricking our gonfalon bubble,
Making a Giant hit into a double-
Words that are heavy with nothing but trouble:
"Tinker to Evers to Chance."
-- Franklin Pierce Adams, 1902

Wednesday, February 08, 2006

Pie-bye Tomas

No one can deliver a shaving cream pie to the face like Tomas Perez. But will the light-hitting, yet popular, Phillie soon be sent packing, along with his Barbasol?

It seems likely now that the Phillies have inked infielder Alex Gonzalez to a one-year deal. That's Alex S, you know.

Gonzalez might provide more power and solid defense, but who will provide the lift in the clubhouse that can only come from seeing a teammate popped with shaving cream while doing the post-game TV interview?

These are the questions that are rarely asked.

Thursday, February 02, 2006

Is the new boss the same as the old?

The Phillies trade of Jason Michaels to Cleveland for aging set-up man Arthur Rhodes is the kind of deal that made Ed Wade public enemy No. 1 in Philadelphia.

It would seem new GM Pat Gillick wanted to get rid of Michaels, even though the club denied that his punching a cop last summer outside a bar had nothing to do with the trade. Earlier, the Phils were asking for top pitching prospects in return for Michaels -- and settle for Rhodes.

Now, if the Phillies move Ryan Madson from the set-up role to the rotation, then this deal might have some merit. And if Madson is reliable in that role, then it's like the Phils traded Michaels for starting pitching. So we'll have to wait and see.

Thursday, January 26, 2006

Just maybe ...

A gray-haired, straight-shooting manager can lead the Tigers to prominence again?

The latest from Jim Leyland:

"I'm not asking anyone to be patient, I can tell you that. People get sick and tired of hearing that. Tiger fans are sick and tired of hearing that. We don't have that long. ... So I don't have any long-term plans. I have short-term plans. And we better get good pretty quick."

Wednesday, January 04, 2006

How can this team be Seo stupid?

The Mets have traded their youngest, and probably at least third-best, starting pitcher, and all they got was a couple of relief pitchers and a spot in the starting rotation for Victor Zambrano. Jae Seo is headed to the Dodgers along with reliever Tim Hamulack in exchange for Duaner Sanchez and Steve Schmoll. This may be the worst trade the Mets have made this offseason, and that is no small feat.

In 2005, after his midseason liberation from the minor leagues, Seo had the best year of his major league career. He posted a 2.59 ERA in 90.1 innings, striking out 59 batters, walking 16 and compiling a record of eight wins and two losses. He outpitched Kris Benson and >Victor Zambrano with ease and nearly kept pace with Tom Glavine's post-All Star resurgence. It's doubtful he could keep up that excellence for a full season. But given that neither Benson nor Zambrano has ever pitched that well for even half a season and that both are older and more expensive that Seo, it shouldn't be too hard to see which is the most valuable pitcher among these three.

So, as a result of this trade, the Mets' starting rotation is composed of five pitchers, all at least thirty years old, none products of the Mets' minor league system. I suppose it is possible that they will choose Aaron Heilman to fill Seo's rotation spot rather than Zambrano, but given Omar Minaya's recent obsession with upgrading the bullpen and Heilman's success there in 2005, I don't expect it. So it's Pedro Martinez, Glavine, Benson, Zambrano and Steve Trachsel. It's often been said recently that starting pitching was an area of depth for the Mets. But how can any team be considered deep if they're resorting to starting Victor Zambrano?

The 2006 Mets' rotation got older and worse as a result of this trade. But what about 2007? This offseason the Mets have divested themselves of pitching prospects and now they're ditching any major leaguer with the foul stench of youth, too. Martinez and Benson are the only starters the Mets have under contract for 2007, though they could still control the rights to Zambrano as well. And now, as a result of other recent trades, they have no reinforcements coming from the minors. This deal doesn't only make the Mets more reliant on aging mercenaries in the present, in ensures that they'll have to increase that reliance in the future. To put together a good rotation next year the Mets are going to have to count on continued health from a thirty-five year old Martinez, miraculous improvement from a thirty-two year old Benson and some serious luck on the free agent market. Does this sound like a wise and well-considered plan to you?

And, though I feel like I've asked this before, for what? Duaner Sanchez is a twenty-six year old relief pitcher with a career ERA of 4.19 and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 124:71 in 174 career innings. He's had two consecutive seasons in which he's pitched at least 80 innings and posted and ERA under four. But over the last three years, lefties have hit .302/.361/.476 against him. That would seem to suggest that in order to get optimal value out of Sanchez, Willie Randolph would have to pay attention to such statistics and use him accordingly. That plan is about as reasonable as the one in the last paragraph.

In 2005, the Mets' best reliever was Roberto Hernandez. He was acquired not in exchange for one of the team's best major league pitchers, but for the cost of a minor league contract and a spring training invite. That's what it took to get a relief pitcher who had a season significantly better than any on Duaner Sanchez's resume. Instead of throwing valuable players away chasing a name, the Mets made a smart move and took an inexpensive chance. The fact that they apparently didn't learn anything from its success does not bode well for their digging their way out of the hole they are currently digging.

The cost of this move in 2006, the difference between a team with Seo in the rotation and Zambrano in the bullpen and one with Zambrano in the rotation and Sanchez in the bullpen, may only be a handful of wins. It may be even less than that. The Mets are clearly going for broke this year, and this trade made not impede their march toward the playoffs at all. But the team's recent moves leave me more and more concerned about the aftermath of this approach. Omar Minaya doesn't seem to even have an eye toward 2007, let alone beyond that. The Mets' window to win a World Series with Pedro Martinez and Carlos Delgado may be closing. But I hope, when it does close, that Minaya hasn't slammed it shut so tight that David Wright and Carlos Beltran won't be able to pry it back open.

Wednesday, December 28, 2005

In memoriam

Some of the former big leaguers who died in 2005:

Don Blasingame
Nelson Briles
Chico Carrasquel
Donn Clendenon
Pat Kelly
Al Lopez
Rick Mahler
Gene Mauch
Vic Power
Dick Radatz
Bill Voiselle
Earl Wilson

Friday, December 23, 2005

National Bohemian vs. Budweiser

The St. Louis Cardinals signed former Orioles drunken party boy/starting pitcher Sydney Ponson to a 1 yr deal. Ponson's agreement with the Cardinals calls for a $1 million base salary and allows him to earn an additional $1.5 million in performance bonuses based on starts.

Ponson amassed a 76-91 record with a 4.81 ERA while in Baltimore, presumably on a diet of National Bohemian ("It's crisp, It's cold and we're proud to say..... It's brewed on the shores of the Chesapeake Bay").

Perhaps the move to St. Louis and a switch to Budweiser (King of Beers) will prove to be an upgrade for the sot.

The last drunk to be banished from the Orioles to the National League was Dennis Martinez.

Tuesday, December 13, 2005

Adios

The Padilla Flotilla is heading to a new port in Texas. As Randy Miller wrote on Phillyburbs.com:

"Uncle! Or so Vicente Padilla can comprende: Tio! At last, the Phillies waved the white flag and gave up on a reclusive Nicaraguan pitcher who never consistently transformed his so-called great arm and great stuff into stardom."

Nuff said.

Sunday, December 11, 2005

How about a closer from Houston?

Yesterday's Houston Chronicle tossed out the idea of the Astros trading Brad Lidge to the Phillies for Bobby Abreu. There was no indication this deal was under discussion by the teams, but it is interesting.

Although it seems the Phils are shopping Abreu for a quality starter (Derek Lowe, Brad Penny, Mark Prior and Carlos Zambrano have all been sought, reportedly), a deal for Lidge could make sense if Philly can't get a starter and decides to move Ryan Madson to the rotation.

The Phils signed Tom Gordon with the idea of him being the closer, but he could easily slide into the set-up role vacated by Madson. It would seem an unlikely move, but one that might have some merit? I think most fans would feel better with Lidge closing -- despite his World Series meltdowns -- rather than Gordon.

Also, the Phils are reportedly close to signing Braden Looper. Unfortunately, I'm not making this up. Looper-to-Gordon doesn't do much to instill confidence.

Finally, Phils radio host Tom McCarthy will be heading to WFAN to join the Mets broadcasting team. Tom is a fine announcer and classy guy. Good luck to him, although he will be missed in Philly.

Thursday, December 08, 2005

Meow!

Detroit has jumped into the winter signing fray by bringing back Todd Jones to be the team's closer. Jones saved 142 games for the Tigers from 1997-2001 when he was traded to Minnesota for starter Mark Redman. Last season with the Marlins, Jones saved 40 games, just two shy of his career high that he set with Detroit in 2000, and had a career-best 2.10 ERA.

Jones will get $11 million for two years, which looks like a steal compared to the going rate for relievers. He will be the Tigers fifth closer since the start of last year, following Troy Percival, Ugie Urbina, Kyle Farnsworth and Fernando Rodney. Gee, is it any wonder Alan Trammell got fired?

It seems Jones' 2005 season compares favorably to that of Wagner or Ryan, who got wheelbarrows filled with $$$$. Jones converted 40 of 45 save chances, Wagner 38 of 41 and Ryan 36 of 41. Jones had a WHIP of 1.04 while Wagner was 0.84 and Ryan was 1.14. Jones had a K/BB ratio of 3.88 while Wagner was 3.95 and Ryan was 3.57. Opponents had an OPS of .559 vs. Jones, .494 against Wagner and .572 vs. Ryan.

So, Wagner has a slight edge statistically, but I'll take Jones' contract over Wags any day. Ditto for Ryan, who couldn't even match Jones. Plus, Jones actually liked playing in Detroit, which should be a plus.

Detroit also is rumored to be signing Kenny Rogers for $16 million over two years. Here is where the trouble begins. The Tigers want a veteran to help their young guns like Bonderman, Maroth, Robertson, Verlander, etc.

But is a guy who had very public outbursts against the media the dude you want showing the way? A 41-year-old guy, at that. I'm not thrilled with this move, but maybe all Kenny needs is a fresh start. He has averaged nearly 15 wins and 32 starts over the past four seasons.

Wednesday, December 07, 2005

Quote me

It doesn't seem that time away from the game has dulled Jim Leyland's edge -- which is a good thing. Here is another offering from the Tigers new skipper, who was asked about having veteran leadership in the clubhouse:

"I'm supposed to be the leader," Leyland said. "That's why they hired me. The leaders on the team are the guys who hit .330 with 30 homers and knock in 140 runs. I never saw a guy who hit .200 be the leader. I don't buy that stuff."

Speaking of speaking up, new (and very rich) Blue Jays pitcher A.J. Burnett pulled no punches about the fire sale the Florida Marlins are undergoing: "They'd better teach Dontrelle Willis how to play all nine positions," he said yesterday.

Sunday, December 04, 2005

Mets appease fans nostalgic for the old days of inexplicable trades

The Mets have acquired catcher Paul Lo Duca from the Marlins for minor league pitcher Gaby Hernandez and another as yet unnamed minor league pitcher. Hernandez had been the best pitching prospect in the Mets' system for a good week and a half following the trade of Yusmeiro Petit to Florida in the Carlos Delgado deal. Hernandez is only nineteen years old and a long way from the majors, but he had put up excellent numbers in rookie ball and low A ball before having some trouble in high A. He had a lot further to go than either of the two top pitching prospects the Mets have traded in the last year and a half. But given that the top honor now goes to either a guy who hasn't signed yet or a guy recovering from Tommy John surgery, this trade has really left the ranks of Mets pitching prospects barren.

And for what? The New York Daily News says that Lo Duca "is regarded as one of the top offensive catchers in the game". I wonder if the people who regard him as such realize it's not 2001 anymore. Last year he hit a dismal .283/.334/.380 and that was the second time in the last three years that his slugging percentage was .380 or lower. Even free agent defensive specialist Bengie Molina has managed to slug .400 each of the last three years. Molina's played in a better offensive environment than Lo Duca has, but when a player needs his numbers to be put in context to explain why he didn't hit as well as Bengie Molina, he's not going to be much of an offensive force in any environment. Lo Duca just isn't a good hitter anymore. And he's never been known as a good defensive catcher. The Daily News also brings up his reputation as "a team leader and positive clubhouse presence," but really, that's the sort of thing you say about a guy who's actual baseball abilities don't merit much praise.

So for this nice guy who's not very good at playing baseball, the Mets gave up Gaby Hernandez. And another pitcher. And, oh yeah, 12.5 million dollars over the next two years. The only thing that made sense about the Mike Cameron/Xavier Nady deal was the money the Mets saved. And now they've given that all away to a guy who didn't even hit as well as Ramon Castro (.244/.321/.435) last year. There is some speculation that perhaps the Diamondbacks want Lo Duca as part of a deal for Javier Vazquez, in which case this may make sense. But if not, this is a really awful trade.

Thursday, December 01, 2005

Big news

Just when it seemed the Tigers would fail to make a move, the Free Press reports today that Detroit signed Bobby Seay to a minor-league deal.

Seay is 27, left-handed, and had been sent to the minors on an outright release by the pitching-rich Colorado Rockies. He had an 8.49 ERA in 11 2/3 innings for the Rockies before going 1-0 with 3 saves and a 2.38 ERA at AAA Colorado Springs.

Feel the excitement.

Rumors, rumors, rumors

The NY Post is reporting that the Phillies have moved into the Manny Ramirez sweepstakes, saying that the Fightins would trade Bobby Abreu. The deal is being held up because of the disparity of the players' contracts, the paper said.

This would be a very curious move, regardless of Ramirez's offensive prowess. It would throw the Phils outfield into shambles, presumably with Manny in left and Pat Burrell moving to right. That's two lousy corner outfielders, so I guess we'd find out if Aaron Rowand is truly a Gold Glove in center. He'd better be.

The Post also reports the Mets are talking about sending Kris Benson to the Orioles for Jorge Julio. This, I think, would be a good deal for the Mets. Julio, despite his troubles last season, is only 26 and has produced in the past. We're still waiting for Benson, 31, to blossom into the star he was supposed to be. No one, perhaps in the history of the game, has clung to the "potential" tag longer than Benson.

Of course, the tabloids will regret losing Mrs. Benson.

Tom Gordon reportedly will determine his destination in the next two or three days, his agent said.

A year or so from now, Joe will be disappointed with the Wagner signing. He wasn't as automatic last year as the NY press would have you believe. And he hasn't hit 100 mph on the gun in a while, outside of one game in Washington.

Wednesday, November 30, 2005

Mets spend money wisely for second consecutive offseason

The Mets have had a busy week, plugging superstars into two positions that were glaring weaknesses last year. They spent a lot of money in both cases, and gave up some good young players in one. But unlike the numerous bad deals that got the Mets into their recent mess, they're paying a premium price for premium players. Giving up your best pitching prospect is a lot less idiotic if the guy you're getting in return is Carlos Delgado rather than Victor Zambrano.

Delgado's qualifications require little interpretation. After a down year in 2004 which saw him hit .269/.372/.535 and miss some time due to injury for the Toronto Blue Jays, Delgado signed with the Marlins. He exploded upon the National League, hitting .301/.399/.582 with thirty-three home runs in a stadium that dampens offense similarly to Shea Stadium. Even accounting for the fact that he is thirty-three years old and not that great defensively, he is an enormous upgrade over the guys the Mets were sending out to play first last year. They hit .227/.303/.391, posting an OPS lower than the National League average at shortstop or catcher. A bat like Carlos Delgado's was a large part of the difference between the 2004 Mets and a playoff team.

The Mets did give up some valuable players in exchange for Delgado. Mike Jacobs was far from a proven major leaguer, let alone a star first baseman, boasting just one huge month in the bigs on the heels of a good year in AA. But he is a good young player with potential to be more and could provide real value to a team that doesn't have Carlos Delgado to play first base. Still, Yusmeiro Petit is the real prize of the package the Marlins received. Just twenty years old, he's already mastered AA, striking out more than a batter per inning with great command in each season of his three year minor league career. Scouts have always said he wouldn't be able to maintain that success at the major league level, but I was looking forward to seeing him try. I'm sorry to see him go, but I can't quibble with a deal that gets the Mets an elite player like Delgado.

And then there's Billy Wagner. First things first, the money is absurd. Paying a guy more than forty thousand dollars per out is just silly. But that's just the nature of the closer position these days. If you can prove yourself capable of getting people out in the ninth consistently, you can get a contract wildly out of proportion to your real value. If the Mets hadn't given him this deal, someone else would have. And, of course, they are the New York Mets, so ten million dollars isn't going to break their backs. At least they have a great closer.

And that is certainly what they have. When Billy Wagner steps on to the mound, he will strike out more than a batter per inning. He will walk about a quarter of the number of batters he strikes out. And he won't give up too many home runs. The only question is how often he'll step on the mound. He missed almost sixty games due to injury two years ago and will be at least thirty-seven when he finishes this contract. As crazy as BJ Ryan's contract with Toronto may be, he might have been a safer bet for the Mets. But if Wagner stays healthy, the Mets will have as good a chance at preserving a ninth inning lead as any team in baseball.

The Mets have spent this kind of money on players in their thirties before. Some of those contracts are just expiring now and some haven't yet. But Billy Wagner isn't Kevin Appier or Pedro Astacio. Carlos Delgado isn't Mo Vaughn or Jeromy Burnitz. And that Roberto Alomar deal really seemed like a good idea at the time. This time the Mets appear to have gotten a couple of great players with a few years left in them. They added twelve wins to their record in 2005. I think they just added a few more.

Konerko back to White Sox

And he said it was in large part to the team bringing in Jim Thome. So I guess that's a vote in Chicago in favor of that trade.

Meanwhile, since the Tigers are off the radar screen right now, we'll entertain with this quote from new skipper Jim Leyland: "It's not enough to play hard, you've also got to play smart. I played hard, too, and I never got out of Double-A."

Bye bye Billy

More on the Wags signing by the Mets: According to the NY Post, Wagner said the Phils made a mistake by trading Jim Thome and are going backwards. So, it sounds as though William probably wasn't returning to the Zen no matter what was offered.

Phillies appear to be hot on Tom Gordon as their closer. I hate this idea.

Pat Gillick looks to have made another solid move by signing Abraham Nunez, who might take the majority of ABs at third base, but can play just about anywhere and is a switch-hitter.

Has anyone heard from the Tigers?

Tuesday, November 29, 2005

Good times, bad times

Time to catch up on some wheeling and dealing. The Phils made an incredible deal in getting Aaron Rowand and a top pitching prospect in exchange for Jim Thome. White Sox fans seem to be devastated about losing Rowand, which might be a good sign for Phils fans.

On the downside, the Phils lost Billy Wagner to division rival New York. It will be interesting to hear Joe's take on this signing. Personally, I don't think it's a terrible thing for Philly -- did you really want Wags signed until 2009 at $10 million a season? New Phils GM Pat Gillick hates signing pitchers for more than two years.

"I'd almost rather pay two years at $10 million-$12 million [per year] than three years at $9 million," Gillick said. "I just want to have more flexibility, because you've got to be able to change your roster."

Which makes sense, if you can pull it off.

Anyway, the Phils can now focus on other relievers. They're pursuing Trevor Hoffman and Tom Gordon, from reports. They're not talking to Kyle Farnsworth, which makes no sense to me. He would seem a better option than Gordon, who has pitched a good many innings as a set-up man for Mariano Rivera in NY. The Indians, Orioles and Tigers also are chasing Hoffman. Bob Wickman and Todd Jones also are available.

I'd almost rather roll the dice with Octavio Dotel, who is a risk coming off surgery, but might be a great bargain. Especially when you consider Farnsworth is the only pitcher in the previously mentioned group who is under 37.

Monday, November 28, 2005

Nice call Sparky

The York Daily Record reports that the Orioles are in serious negotiations with Angels free agent Paul Byrd for a two year deal worth 10 - 13m.

FYI - Sparky had advised this move several months ago (in private conversations), but I did not realize he had Flanagan's ear.

Tuesday, November 22, 2005

Well armed

One would have to guess the Red Sox are nowhere near finished dealing, not even counting Manny.

Wells wants out and the team apparently will try to send him west, as he requested. Right now, they’ve got way too many starters – although most of them can’t stay healthy for a full year: Bronson Arroyo, Matt Clement, Wade Miller, Curt Schilling, Tim Wakefield and Wells, plus Josh Beckett.