Bird watching

Baltimore comes to Detroit for 3 games, opening with Daniel Cabrera facing Jeremy Bonderman. This has the potential to be a gem if each pitches to his potential. Of course, that means limiting walks for Cabrera and getting out of the first inning for Bonderman. Cabrera tossed a gem against Detroit on April 9. Bonderman is due for some good luck.

Adam Loewen (2-0, 3.20) takes on Chad Durbin (1-1, 6.65) in the middle game of the set. Loewen struggles with walks, too, but the Tigers historically aren’t a team that draws many walks. That’s changed somewhat for the better this season, but we’ll see how it goes. Knocking Loewen out of the game doesn’t guarantee success, either, because the O’s pen – thanks in part to former Tiger Jamie Walker – has been solid. Durbin was great last time out, but I expect a return to earth.

I’m guessing the series comes down to Wednesday’s clash between Steve Trachsel and Nate Robertson. I like Nate in this spot, which hopefully means the Tigers take the series, 2-1.

Meanwhile, Maggs is scorching. He’s got at least 1 RBI in 10 of last 11 games. He’s .486/.558/.919 in last 10 with 3 HR and 18 RBI. For everything that’s gone wrong so far, the Tigs are still 13-11, which is 5th best in AL. Unfortunately, Cleveland, Minnesota and Chicago also are in the Top 6.

No hits? no runs? No problem.

Despite the general awesomeness of the Mets' offense, they have a tendency to make the strangest pitchers look like Cy Young contenders. This weekend was a prime example, as they scored a grand total of three runs in eighteen and one-third innings against Jason Bergmann (career ERA prior to Sunday's game: 5.25), Jerome Williams (2007 ERA after six shutout innings on Saturday: 6.11) and Matt Chico (2007 WHIP: 2.07). I've come to accept in recent years that rookie starters will make the Mets look hapless regardless of their actual talent level, but getting nearly no-hit by a veteran mediocrity like Williams is a bit much.

In total the Mets scored ten runs in three and one-third games, doing nearly half of that damage in a four-run twelfth inning on Saturday. For the most part, the Mets who had been hitting before this series kept hitting and those who hadn't been didn't start. Jose Reyes went three-for-twelve with three walks, a double and four stolen bases. He's now hitting a mere .343/.435/.576, but is on pace to finish the season with a Rickeyesque 112 walks and 112 stolen bases. Carlos Beltran went four-for-thirteen with one walk, one double and a home run that provided the only scoring in Sunday's game. He's hitting .333/.394/.625, just barely enough to outpace Moises Alou (.349/.400/.482) and Shawn Green (.360/.418/.551) for the best line among Met outfielders.

But while those who patrol the grass continue to pound the ball, Reyes's dirtbound compatriots are having more trouble. Jose Valentin (.279/.359/.471) is off to a fine start with both bat and glove, but he left Saturday's game with discomfort in his knee and flew to New York to get it tested on Sunday, although it doesn't appear to be anything too serious. Then there's David Wright and Carlos Delgado. Wright drew five more walks this weekend, keeping his OBP at a healthy .388, but his .329 slugging percentage isn't so pretty. Still, it beats Delgado's .187/.265/.264 line. But then, even Paul Lo Duca (.225/.288/.282) can beat that.

Fortunately, the Mets again got enough good pitching to take two of three games in this series. Oliver Perez got the loss on Friday, but his start was encouraging in that he had one bad inning and didn't fall completely apart. After giving up three runs in the first inning, he allowed just one more, going seven innings with nine strikeouts and no walks. He wasn't dominant, but giving up four runs in seven innings is going to be good enough for the Mets' offense on a lot of nights. Tom Glavine and John Maine chose not to take that chance as they allowed a total of one run in thirteen innings on Saturday and Sunday. Maine again kept his wildness within reason, walking three while striking out eight in seven innings.

The Mets (15-8) are third in the league (and the division) in runs scored with 126 as they head home, but no team in the majors has allowed fewer than their 75 runs. The Marlins (11-13) have been the NL's offensive juggernaut thus far with 134 runs scored and they will come to Shea for three games starting Monday. Orlando Hernandez (2-1, 2.53) may or may not start game one for the Mets as a sore shoulder will have him consulting with a medical professional. Mike Pelfrey (0-2, 7.90) and Perez (2-2, 3.86) are scheduled to follow him in he rotation. Scott Olsen (2-1, 6.23), Ricky Nolasco (0-0, 20.25 in relief) and Anibal Sanchez (2-0, 4.39) will almost surely start for Florida. Fortunately for the Mets, only one NL team has allowed more than 134 runs this season and that team is the Marlins, who have allowed 135.

Contact

The Tigers suffered their first blowout of the season Saturday. Zumaya struggled again Friday and Detroit lost another game it led after 6. But the real reason for my visit today is to post this note stolen from Billfer at the Tigers Weblog:

Entering today, Placido Polanco had swung and missed 3 times this season. Three. I forget the exact number, but Billfer had Polly with 90+ consecutive swings with contact.

An observation from last night: Polly came to bat with a runner on base and the OF playing him to go the other way. Tigers talking head Rod Allen noted the defense and mused about Polly pulling the ball. Polly choked up and blooped a double to left for an RBI.

Bang, Zoom

Joel Zumaya's candor yesterday in discussing his meltdown the previous night in Chicago was refreshing. Among other things, Zumaya admitted he'd gotten a big head and said his immaturity proves he's not ready to be a closer yet.

O's Remain on Pace

The O's kept pace with the Yankees by dropping both ends of a 2 game set with the Red Sox, settling the question of AL East supremacy once (and for all for O's fans at least) and extending their losing streak to 4 games.

O's starters pitched well but faltered late and the heretofore sensational bullpen got its' comeuppance in both contests. O's pitching surrendered 17 walks in the two contests extending their AL league leading total to 97 and remaining on pace to lead the league in that hallowed statistical category.

The O's offense turned in their customary anemic performance facing Schilling and Beckett in the 2 games.

O's pitching leads the AL in walks and strikeouts. It feels like the young pitchers are enamored with the K to the extent that they always go deep in counts. Just get the damn at-bat decided already!

Now it's off to Cleveland and then Detroit. Can't wait!

Numbers, and what do they mean?

I was reading that Jim Leyland's not too concerned about Sean Casey's sub-.200 BA because Casey's not striking out much and still adjusting to AL pitching. That sent me to look at Casey's stats. We've been led to believe Casey is a patient hitter who rarely strikes out and possesses a high OBP. The latter two points are true, but seem to have little to do with patience.

This year, Casey has 9 K and 7 BB. He is seeing an average of 3.4 pitches per plate appearance. Craig Monroe, another sub-.200 hitter, has 25 K and 5 BB. He is seeing an average of 4.6 pitches per PA. Brandon Inge, another high K/low BA guy at the moment, is seeing 4.22 pitches per PA. Obviously, the deeper you go into counts, the more likely you can whiff.

Sean Casey rarely strikes out more than 50 times in a season. He also rarely walks more than 50 times. In 2005, he batted .324 with a .381 OBP. He saw an average of a paltry 3.22 pitches per plate appearance. Casey goes up there and gets his cuts. It would appear Casey's career OBP is high because he's got a high BA.

I would guess Casey's struggles might have to do with his bat speed? Maybe his bat has slowed just enough that balls he used to take down the right-field line are flyouts to RF and the balls that used to find the gaps are flyouts to CF. Merely speculation. Consider that he hit one double every 13 AB in 2004. That figure dropped to one double every 16.5 AB in 2005, one double per every 18 AB in 2006, and one double per every 23 AB this season. Granted, he's gotten slower, but this is most troublesome.

Sweep!

The Tigers-White Sox game tonight has been rained out, meaning Detroit leaves town having won the only game played in the mini-set. Now, back home to face the Twins!

Hanging (with) Chad

We will say "congratulations" to Chad Durbin after getting his first ML win since 2004 with his best Greg Maddux (in his prime) impersonation last night. Durbin simply tossed 8 innings of 3-hit, no-run, no-walk, 9-K ball in damp, cold Chicago. It looked like he really had his breaking pitches going for him. Granted, Tiger-killer Jim Thome (1.144 career OPS vs. Detroit) and Jermaine Dye were out of the lineup for the White Sox, but so what.

This much Jim Leyland must have known about Durbin, if you let him pitch enough, he'll mix in a gem. In 2000, he compiled a 12.30 ERA while giving up 48 hits and 21 BB in 30 IP during an eight-game span. His next start was 8.2 IP, 5 H, 1 R vs. Cleveland. Unfortunately, he couldn't sustain it, giving up 9 H and 5 R in 4 IP his following outing. Durbin has 3 CG, so he's capable of giving you a good game here or there.

We're hoping for more heres.

A very special episode of Growing Pains

In Mike Pelfrey's first two starts, he at least managed not to fall completely apart. There wasn't too much to be encouraged by beyond that, but for a guy only a year into his professional baseball career, it was something. Start number three did not even reach those lofty heights and the day may be approaching when the Mets have to reevaluate their short-term plans for their first round draft pick of two years ago.

The previously punchless Colorado Rockies came to life at the sight of Pelfrey's fastball on Thursday, pounding him for six runs on eight hits and one walk in three innings, knocking him out of the game before he even had a chance to bat. Pelfrey now has an ERA of 7.90 in 10.2 innings with six strikeouts, seven walks and two home runs allowed. He's given up a total of twenty hits. There's been a lot of talk from Mets announcers this year about Pelfrey choosing to pitch to contact and generate ground balls rather than going for strikeouts and, if this really is his intent, early on it looks to be about as good an idea as it sounds like. One of the differences between Pelfrey's time in the majors and his brief but excellent stint in the minors in 2005 is that in the minors he was striking out more than a batter per inning whereas in his major league career he's struck out exactly one batter per walk allowed. The Mets' infield defense may be very good, at least up the middle, but getting outs without having to rely on your defense is still a surer route to success if you can pull it off. These three starts don't provide a very large sample on which to judge these ideas, especially since Pelfrey got knocked out of each of them before the end of the sixth inning, but the early results are not encouraging. Pelfrey's still just twenty-three and has a history of success in college in the minors, but he may not be quite ready to dominate major league hitters. It would not be the first or even the five hundredth time that Spring Training success failed to mean a damn thing.

Pelfrey's pummeling could not quite erase the memory of the first two games of this series, each of which went rather well for the Mets. Games one and two featured excellent starting pitching performances, from John Maine and Orlando Hernandez, respectively. Each pitched at least seven innings with Maine allowing one run and Hernandez none. Maine got plenty of offensive support while El Duque had to settle for watching extra inning heroics from the bench. Jose Valentin and Carlos Delgado each homered in game one and Damion Easley provided a dramatic two-out, two-strike, game-tying blast in the bottom of the tenth inning of game two to set things up for the inevitable Endy Chavez-fueled victory. Scoring just thirteen runs in three and a third games against the Rockies' pitching staff is a bit of a letdown for the Mets' offense, but at least they escaped with a couple of wins.

The "teams they really ought to beat" segment of the first-place Mets' (13-7) schedule takes its show on the road this weekend as they make a stop in the NL East cellar to take on the Nationals (6-15). Oliver Perez (2-1, 3.31), Tom Glavine (3-1, 3.07) and Maine (3-0, 1.71) will start for the Mets as they try to improve upon the two-game split these teams battled to two weeks back at Shea. None of them pitched in that series. Neither did Matt Chico (1-2, 6.38), Jerome Williams (0-4, 7.77) nor Jason Bergmann (0-1, 3.27), who will take the hill for the Nats this weekend.

The new Fonz

Antonio Alfonseca, signed for $700K, at this point looks like a pretty good pickup by a guy who did nothing to improve the Phillies bullpen.

O's Keep Pace

The Baltimore Orioles are 11-9 through 20 games following an exhilarating 3 game sweep of the division rival Toronto Blue Jays over the weekend which they capitalized on immediately by dropping 2 straight to the Oakland A's. The O's remain 2 games back of Boston by virtue of the Red Sox sweep of the Yankees over the weekend followed by dropping 2 straight to Toronto.

The O's stand 3rd in the AL in pitching (ERA), 3rd in fielding (PCT) and 8th in hitting (AVG).

Their lofty standing in pitching is largely due to the bullpens' spectacular performance through 20 games. The starting pitching has been less than stellar, but has shown signs of strength. The O's just placed Scott Williamson on the DL with a right elbow problem. Could be the last we see of him.

O's fielding has tightened up since the opening week of the season standing at 12 errors committed through 20 games after committing 8 errors through 9 games.

O's hitting has been sporadic thus far. They've beaten a few left handers which is good, but they haven't beaten any pitchers who have pitched well. I don't know if you can fashion a winning record over the long haul by only beating lousy pitchers or good pitchers who have an off game. On the up side, Jay Payton is off the DL and having a good start. Ramon Hernandez is due to be available for today's game against Boston. Getting these two guys active significantly improves both the offense and defense.

The O's are 7-2 in the AL East.

So, it's Orioles vs. Red Sox in a 2 game set for AL East Supremacy! (of the first 22 games).

Division wars

The Tigers face Chicago (twice) and the Twins (thrice) over the next 5 days. I hope Detroit can get at least one in Chitown; with Chad Durbin pitching tonight, the better shot is tomorrow with Nate Robertson on the hill.

Here is how tough the Minnesota series could be: Johan Santana has the worst ERA of the three starters the Twins will send out. Ramon Ortiz (2.48) and Carlos Silva (2.74) will toss the first two games before Santana (3.44) meets Jeremy Bonderman in the finale. On the bright side, two of the Tigers' starters -- Justin Verlander (2.08) and Bonderman (3.18) have lower ERAs than their opponents.

Beyond that, Detroit just needs Craig Monroe, Brandon Inge and Todd Jones to get straightened out. Given the Tigers' starting pitching depth, I wonder how long GM Dave Dombrowski will wait to explore trade possibilities. Dombrowski will look to improve this team, I'm sure. It's too early to panic, but as tough as the AL Central is, one can't afford to wait too long.

The season in a game

The Tigers' 9-8 loss at Anaheim today was a microcosm of the season. Jeremy Bonderman continued his habit of giving up first-inning runs, getting touched for 4; Detroit showed its resilience by rallying late, taking an 8-7 lead on Magglio Ordonez's 2-run homer in the 9th; the bullpen collapsed and couldn't make it stand.

At least the Tigers got a split. Now it's time to tangle with the White Sox again.

Swinging

Detroit pounded Jered Weaver in a 9-5 win last night. Curtis Granderson hit Weaver's first pitch for a home run, and the rout was on. Gary Sheffield got his stroke going with a 2-for-4 effort that included two runs, an RBI and a walk. Surprisingly, the only Tiger among the top six in the lineup not to have a multi-hit game was Placido Polanco, who was hitless. Granderson, Sheff, Maggs, Guillen and Pudge all came through. Casey, Monroe and Inge went 0-for-11 at the bottom of the lineup as their woes continue.

Mike Maroth could only go 4.2 innings as he struggled with his control. He gave up 5 walks and 7 hits while yielding three runs (two earned) on 105 pitches. Jason Grilli got the win with 2.1 innings of no-hit relief.

Go west

The Tigers go to Anaheim for a two-game West Coast swing. Mike Maroth faces Jered Weaver in tonight’s contest.

Detroit is 3-0 in Maroth’s starts this year, even though Maroth has been inconsistent, at best. He doesn’t throw hard or strikeout many batters, so he usually gives up his share of hits, but this year opponents are batting .328 against him. Still, Maroth missed most of last year because of elbow surgery, so he might just need a little more time to put it all together. He was the Tigers best pitcher last April. Weaver has made only one start this year because of bicep tendonitis.

Tomorrow, the snake-bitten Jeremy Bonderman faces Kelvim Escobar. Bonderman has been brilliant, especially when he gets past the first inning. Escobar will be coming off the DL to pitch Tuesday. Normally, I’d say this gives the Tigers an edge, but Escobar is 8-0 with a 2.10 ERA in his career vs. Detroit.

Memories

Sports Illustrated recently had a feature about Chris Drury of the Buffalo Sabres, and what makes him a winner. I had the pleasure of covering Drury in the 1989 Little League World Series when his Trumbull, Conn., upset Taiwan for the title. It was the first LLWS I covered. The SI story talks about what a fierce competitor Drury is, and I saw it firsthand.

One day, I was chatting with Chris while Taiwan was playing one of its mid-week games. The conversation turned to the Taiwanese. Chris, gazing at them from atop the hill behind centerfield at the LLWS complex, commented with absolute disdain, "They think they're going to win. F*ck them." There was no false bravado in his voice, just honest confidence.

At that moment, I believed Trumbull had a chance. When I reported to others in the press section that I thought Trumbull could win it all, it was dismissed as the thoughts of a rookie reporter who didn't understand the Taiwan machine.

Chris has been one of my favorite athletes since that day on the hill.

The Braves? Again?

The Mets' offense remained hot over the last five games, putting thirty-six runs on the board against the Marlins and Braves, even smacking around Dontrelle Willis and John Smoltz along the way. They were able to take two games in Florida with relative ease, but bad defense and relief pitching allowed Atlanta to win two of three at Shea. At least the starting pitching was pretty good.

John Maine and Orlando Hernandez both pitched well in Florida, each allowing two runs in seven innings. Maine continued to walk too many batters, four this time, but he also struck out seven, which, along with allowing just two hits, helped him get away with it. El Duque, meanwhile, fanned ten, allowed just three hits and two walks, and would have allowed only one run if not for a David Wright error.

The worst start this time through the rotation belonged to Mike Pelfrey, who gave up four runs in five innings on six hits and two walks, while striking out three. He also hit a batter and threw a wild pitch. Pelfrey hasn't been completely embarrassed in either of his first two starts, but he's clearly got a lot of work to do before he'll be a dependable piece of this rotation. But the Mets' offense and the rest of the rotation is good enough to let him work through his issues at the major league level for at least a little while longer and it's not as if any of the possible replacements at AAA are very enticing.

On the subject of working through issues, Oliver Perez bounced back with a terrific performance on Saturday. He lasted six and two-thirds innings and gave up two runs on nine hits but the real story was how consistently he was hitting the strike zone. He struck out nine and walked none, throwing 72 of 98 pitches over the plate between the letters and the knees. Proclaiming him cured now would make about as much sense as writing him off after his last start, but I'm back to being excited by his potential.

The more dependable but less spectacular Tom Glavine took the mound on Sunday and would've had career win number 294 if not for a spectacular collapse on the part of the Mets' bullpen and defense. Glavine gave up three runs on seven hits in six innings, striking out five. He wasn't dominant, but he left the game with a three-run lead. With two outs in the seventh, the Mets' lead was still 6-3, but then a long fly ball to right field found the glove of Shawn Green shortly after which it found the ground below the glove of Shawn Green, opening the door to a Scott Schoenweis-fueled three-run inning. Green's play was not ruled an error, but the ball that bounced between Jose Valentin's legs at the start of a three-run eighth inning was. Aaron Heilman didn't do any better a job limiting the damage than did Schoenweis. Willie Randolph still seems to be figuring out what he's got as far as the bullpen is concerned. Hopefully he'll be able to discern the difference between Heilmand having a bad day and Schoeneweis pitching like Schoeneweis.

While Green playing defense badly is no more surprising than Schoenweis failing to record outs, it is hard for me to campaign for the Met right fielder's benching when he's hitting as well as he is. He homered on Friday and Sunday, giving him three home runs on the season, or three more than David Wright and Carlos Delgado have combined. Green is hitting .338/.411/.569 on the season, which is probably enough to make his avant-garde interpretation of the position of right fielder tolerable.

Of course, the Mets' offense isn't entirely the Shawn Green show. Jose Reyes (.370/.452/.644) and Carlos Beltran (.357/.420/.671) remain unstoppable and Ramon Castro made the most of some playing time this week, hitting his second and third home runs of the year, putting him at .353/.450/.882 while Paul Lo Duca struggles at .245/.317/.321. Wright (.273/.348/.368) isn't hitting for any power and Delgado (.211/.268/.278) isn't hitting at all, but after just seventeen games with plenty of guys picking up the slack, I'm not ready to panic just yet.

Up next the Mets (11-6) will host the Rockies (8-11) for three games. Maine (2-0, 1.93), Hernandez (2-1, 3.24) and Pelfrey (0-1, 5.06) are the scheduled starters for the Mets. Taylor Buchholz (1-0, 5.68), Aaron Cook (0-1, 4.00) and Josh Fogg (0-1, 6.61) will start for Colorado. Presumably the Mets' offense will make them feel at home.

Pluses and minuses

After seeing the Tigers lose the first two to Chicago, I'm thrilled to get one of the series. Marcus Thames hit a 2-run homer with 2 outs in the 9th to force extra innings today and Placido Polanco won it with a single in the 12th.

On the down side, Detroit is still struggling with the bats and the bullpen continues to be shaky. Thames, Craig Monroe, Sean Casey, Brandon Inge and Gary Sheffield all are hitting below .187. The pen's ERA is 4.78 and fourth-worst in the bigs.

On the bright side, the Tigs are 10-8 despite these woes. Detroit has won four games this season in which it trailed in the 9th. Only one loss has been by more than 2 runs and the Tigers have led or been tied after 6 inning in each of their last five setbacks. The starters, for the most part, have been solid to outstanding.

If the bats come to life, which would seem a reasonable expectation, and the pen, particularly Fernando Rodney, regains its form, Detroit will be in excellent shape. Rodney's woes have been blamed, in part, on a sore neck.

Maybe the Tigers are lucky to be 10-8 when they easily could be 6-12. Maybe the AL Central is lucky they're struggling when they could be 15-3. They're not playing like a top team right now, but they're grinding out wins, and that's probably the biggest positive so far.

Here come the Sox

The Tigers begin a 3-game series with the White Sox tonight; a clash between the AL's last two World Series reps. Chad Durbin faces John Danks in the opener, followed by Nate Robertson vs. Jose Contreras and Justin Verlander vs. Jon Garland.

Durbin has given up 17 hits in 8.2 innings, indicating he’s been spending too much time around Jose Mesa. Danks is a lefty, which should be to the Tigers’ advantage with right-handed bats like Pudge, Sheff, Maggs, Monroe, Thames, and Inge. I’d feel better if some of those guys were hitting better at the moment.

Robertson and Verlander went a combined 1-7 vs. CWS last season. We might get a small indication whether Robertson’s success through the early part of this year represents a step up. Contreras seems to pitch well in Motown (3.35 ERA).

Chicago has won two in a row, including Mark Buehrle’s no-no, heading into this series. The Tigers were last seen watching the bullpen spoil Jeremy Bonderman’s day. If Detroit wins 2 in this series, I’d be thrilled.

My, my Myers

From the way some people are reacting, you'd think the Phillies moved Koufax into the bullpen. Brett Myers is a good starting pitcher. He's 54-42 with a 4.42 ERA. I have doubts he was ever going to live up to his projected status as a No. 1.

Granted, he's only 26. But this is full season 5 in the bigs, and he's regressed since 2005. Putting Myers in the bullpen seems to make sense because of his demeanor and his numbers. Over the course of his career, Myers has held batters to an average of .253 on pitches 1-15, .258 on 16-30, .225 on 31-45, .288 on 46-60, .275 on 61-75, .275 on 76-90 and .279 on 91-105. Clearly, he's at his best on pitches 1-45. Last season mirrored his career: .223 on 1-15, .243 on 16-30, .216 on 31-45, .275 on 46-60, .242 on 61-75, .324 on 76-90 and .293 on 91-105.

I would think Myers will be the future closer. That suits me fine.

This is all possible because Jon Lieber is still around. People have said Eaton should have been the one to go to the pen, not Lieber, but I heard Gillick explain that Eaton is a slow starter, which isn't the kind of pitcher you want coming out of the pen. The numbers back that statement up: Eaton is best on pitches 31-76.

Another thing, Eaton's career record of 55-46 and 4.45 ERA isn't much different from Myers' record in virtually the same number of games.