Thursday, April 26, 2007

Numbers, and what do they mean?

I was reading that Jim Leyland's not too concerned about Sean Casey's sub-.200 BA because Casey's not striking out much and still adjusting to AL pitching. That sent me to look at Casey's stats. We've been led to believe Casey is a patient hitter who rarely strikes out and possesses a high OBP. The latter two points are true, but seem to have little to do with patience.

This year, Casey has 9 K and 7 BB. He is seeing an average of 3.4 pitches per plate appearance. Craig Monroe, another sub-.200 hitter, has 25 K and 5 BB. He is seeing an average of 4.6 pitches per PA. Brandon Inge, another high K/low BA guy at the moment, is seeing 4.22 pitches per PA. Obviously, the deeper you go into counts, the more likely you can whiff.

Sean Casey rarely strikes out more than 50 times in a season. He also rarely walks more than 50 times. In 2005, he batted .324 with a .381 OBP. He saw an average of a paltry 3.22 pitches per plate appearance. Casey goes up there and gets his cuts. It would appear Casey's career OBP is high because he's got a high BA.

I would guess Casey's struggles might have to do with his bat speed? Maybe his bat has slowed just enough that balls he used to take down the right-field line are flyouts to RF and the balls that used to find the gaps are flyouts to CF. Merely speculation. Consider that he hit one double every 13 AB in 2004. That figure dropped to one double every 16.5 AB in 2005, one double per every 18 AB in 2006, and one double per every 23 AB this season. Granted, he's gotten slower, but this is most troublesome.

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