Over the off season and the beginning of this season I’ve heard a lot of talk of how Kenny Lofton is not the answer in center field for the Phillies, and I’ll even admit that I had no idea why the Phillies would want Lofton at all as well. I mean sure maybe five years ago he would have been huge but now? At his age? That is until I looked at two factors of what Kenny’s bat will mean for the line- up and I am now of the belief that Kenny Lofton will help the Phillies more than people think.
Now I know Kenny Lofton is not going to be the long term solution to the centerfield issue, for a team that’s built to win now and with only Jason Michaels and Marlon Byrd as the only other current options, the move for Lofton is yet another of Ed Wade’s safe, smart yet boring moves.
First the obvious thing that Kenny brings to the table is his experience. He’s been in the bigs for 14 seasons. He’s got a ton of playoff experience (something that this team has sorely needed) including time in Cleveland with Thome and Charlie Manual. He use to be the prototypical led off man, but he has dropped down in that regard, good for us Phillies fans Jimmy Rollins has grown into that roll. His defense, while again falling off over the years, should be at the very worst ok. I’m giving him a pass for now until he has time to adjust to playing at The Zen (that’s at least what I’m calling Citizen’s Bank), a new pitching staff, and new out fielders that he’ll have to adjust too. But now to my main point what Kenny’s bat will do for the line-up.
Given that most days Kenny will be hitting at the #2 slot behind Jimmy Rollins it’s important to see that one of the two biggest things Kenny is going to give the team is a guy who just doesn’t strike out very much. Just to be fair I’m looking at only his last two seasons. In 2003 Lofton had 610 plate appearances with only 51 strike outs and in 2004, while splitting time with Bernie Williams in NY, 313 plate appearances with 27 strike outs. Why is this so important? The reason is in situations with Jimmy Rollins on base the last thing you want is to give the opposing team a free out or even worst, two outs in a hit and run scenario. In those two seasons Lofton only struck out in ’03 8.4% and ’04 8.7% of the time. That means the other 91.6% and 91.3% of the time Lofton has gotten a hit, walked, sacrificed, or at the very least put the ball in play, giving Lofton many opportunities of advancing the runner.
Now compared to the other centerfield options the teams has over the same two year period.
Kenny Lofton
PA/ SO/ % of time player strikes out
’03: 610/ 51/ - 8.4%
’04: 313/ 27/ - 8.7%
Marlon Byrd
PA/ SO/ % of time player strikes out
’03: 553/ 94/ - 17.0%
’04: 378/ 68/ - 18.0%
Jason Michaels
PA/ SO/ % of time player strikes out
’03: 125/ 22/- 17.6%
’04: 346/ 88/- 25.4%
Even in Marlon Byrds “break out” year of ’03 Lofton was still 10% less likely of being struck out. And while both players are more likely to bring more power, especially Michaels, in the # 2 spot the team’s bigger need is runners and runners in scoring position for the heart of the lineup.
So what about the player that most held the # 2 spot for most of last year? Placido Polanco did a fine job in that spot, in fact Polanco struck out even less than Lofton, (only 6.9% in ’03 and 7.0% in ’04) but now will be playing less thanks to Chase Utley (’03: 14.5%, ’04: 14.0%) which hurts but that brings us to the second big factor that Lofton brings to the table and that is his speed.
Even with losing a step or two or three Lofton is still the faster of the two players. Last year Lofton was able to steal 7 bases the same as Polanco, but with 227 less at bats. The year before with 55 more at bats, Lofton stole 30 bases to Polanco’s 14. It’s Lofton’s speed that gives him the ability to beat out the double play better than Polanco, or get on base in situations where Polanco can’t.
All of that means less chances for the Phillies opponents to get out of jams with the heart of the order coming up. With no outs a double play with a man on first, turns into one out with a man on first or second. With one out, an inning ending double play turns into two outs with a man on first or second and another chance for the heart of the line-up to knock in a run. Lofton flat out gives the team more options and more opportunities to score runs, especially at the centerfield position. Given the fact that Rollins is going to need a day off here and there the Lofton also fills the void for a more than competent lead off man as well. It’s for all these reasons that Lofton makes the Phillies a better team more than most realize.
4 comments:
Did you really write that? Very thoughtful. And almost all the words were spelled correctly.
yes I did write that, and if spell check don't get it I'm all out of luck.
Well I think that's the kind of insights people have come to expect at Death to Flying Things.
I think one thing that jumps out is when you talk about there must be a reason why guys are bench players, Jason Michaels jumps right off at ya. With 221 more plate appearances he struck out 7.8% more.
The only other guys with jumps like that are Thomas Perez, who had 137 less plate appearances, and his rate jumped 6.6% from 16.5 to 23.1. And Jimmy Rollins who’s rate fell with, 36 more plate appearances, 6.3% from 16.4% to 10.1%.
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