Mostly armless

After months of being concerned about the Mets' starting rotation despite their continued winning, I think I've finally got reason for alarm. Neither Pedro Martinez nor Tom Glavine will pitch this week. Pedro will likely be back and effective in plenty of time for the postseason, but Glavine could be out much longer after the discovery of what may or may not be a blood clot in his left shoulder. If the worst case scenario comes to pass and he is out for the rest of the season (or longer), it will be a serious blow to the team's postseason hopes.

Right now I have to assume, if for no other reason than the sake of my own sanity, that Pedro will pitch the first game of the Division Series. The Mets' ace as been somewhat inconsistent this year and is on the disabled list for the second time. That his two injuries were different rather than one recurring problem is only slightly comforting. But health is really the only question with Pedro. Most of his worst starts this year occurred right before or after a stint on the DL. When he's been healthy, he's often dominated, striking out batters more frequently than any National League starter but Jake Peavy. Being healthy in October should be Pedro's only concern for the next six weeks.

If he is able to return this season, Glavine will presumably pitch game two. After rough months in June and July in which he posted ERAs of 4.93 and 6.00, respectively, Glavine had returned to form somewhat in August. Despite a 1-2 record, he pitched well in all three of his starts, never allowing more than three runs or pitching fewer than six innings, earning a 3.60 ERA for the month. His strikeout-to-walk ratio, which had been so good (60:14) in the first two months of the season and so unimpressive (31:26) the next two, bounced back to a solid 12:5. He also cut down on his hits allowed after giving up significantly more than one per inning in June and July. And the two home runs he allowed in August were quite a bit better than the ten he gave up in the month of June alone. In short, he seemed to be rediscovering some of what made him successful at the start of the season. If he is unable to return this season, the Mets will have a very difficult time replacing him.

The back of the rotation has been showing some signs of life, however. John Maine has been excellent, with a 2.68 ERA in eight starts and one relief appearance, striking out 41 and walking 14 in 50.1 innings. Providing further dividends from the Kris Benson trade is Orlando Hernandez, who's often been great since the Mets acquired him for Jorge Julio. Every once in a while he'll get absolutely demolished, but he's also capable of a brilliant performance like Sunday's six shutout innings. And then there's Steve Trachsel, whose pitching is beginning to match his pretty 12-5 record. After going 3-1 in July with a 6.15 ERA, 33 hits in 26.1 IP and a 13:17 K:BB ratio (that is not a typo), August has been his best month with a 3.24 ERA in 25 IP. Any of these three looks like a competent third or fourth playoff starter right now. Maine or El Duque on a good day might be able to impersonate a number two, particularly given the caliber of opposition they'll face in the NL, but I'd rather not try it in the World Series.

Some options have begun to emerge in the minor leagues as well. Brian Bannister, who escaped the major leagues with a bad hamstring and a 2.89 ERA despite allowing a ton of baserunners in April, has started to pitch well in AAA. In his last two starts for Norfolk, he's allowed one run in fourteen innings, striking out twelve and allowing just one walk and nine hits. Oliver Perez has been at least as impressive in his last two outings, giving up just one run in thirteen innings with eighteen strikeouts, three walks and six hits. Seven innings of one-hit ball with eleven strikeouts this past Saturday raised hopes that perhaps the 2004 version of Oliver Perez still lurks somewhere within his body.

So, if Glavine can't pitch, the Mets won't exactly be setting the ball up on a tee for the opposing team. They have some guys who, if they have a good day and/or a lot of offensive support, could win a playoff game. Especially if the opposing starter is the likes of Jeff Suppan or Aaron Harang. Still, I'd much rather have Glavine out there to face Randy Johnson in game two of the World Series. Oh, you know it's going to happen. Eat it, rest of the country.