Tuesday, October 10, 2006

Getting ready for Game 1 ALCS

The Tigers were 5-4 vs. Oakland in the regular season, but the teams haven't played since July 23. Six of the games were in Oakland, where the Tigers were 3-3.

When the teams completed play on July 23, the Tigers were 66-32; Oakland was 51-47.

Detroit's wins: 11-4, 4-3, 10-4, 7-4, 8-4.
Detroit's losses: 3-4, 3-5, 1-2, 5-9.

The Tigers had only one save opportunity, which was converted – by Roman Colon. It was his lone save of the season.

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Barry Zito made one start against Detroit this year and gave up 3 hits and 1 run in 7 IP. He got no decision.

I know Zito is a very good lefty, and he’ll probably go out and toss a gem after what I’m going to say, but it’s not like he’s Koufax out there. He had a 3.83 ERA and 1.40 WHIP this season. I don’t see him being head and shoulders above Robertson, other than on reputation. I would definitely give the edge to Oakland, but not by much. Zito is 55-46 with a 3.85 ERA since going 23-5 with a 2.75 ERA in 2002, which isn’t all that remarkable considering the A’s go to the playoffs annually. One thing is for sure, he’s a workhorse; always over 200 IP every year.

For what it’s worth – and the last series showed that you can throw the past out the window – Zito had a 4.71 ERA at home and 2.97 on the road.

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Is being undisciplined contagious? It must be. Sean Casey has a lifetime .368 on-base average. That’s one of the primary reasons the Tigers traded for him.

After coming to Detroit, Casey’s OBA was .286.

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Speaking of .286 OBAs, that’s what Oakland’s OBA was in its series sweep of Minnesota. The A’s batted .245, second worst in the first round, ahead of only the Padres. The Tigers hit .309 (best) and had a .338 OBA (third).

Oakland had a 2.33 ERA in the first round, second best to St. Louis’ 1.50. The Tigers were fourth at 3.60.

In the regular season, Detroit’s offense ranked fifth in the AL in runs; the A’s were ninth. The Tigers were, of course, best in ERA while Oakland was fourth.

On paper, you’d have to figure that if the Tigers hit and pitch like they did in the first round, and the A’s do the same, it’s Detroit’s series. But there was a lot of worthless paper after the first round, too.

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