Saturday, March 24, 2007

Numbers vs. the Real World

I was looking at stats today and started studying Placido Polanco. I am not alone in believing his presence in the No. 2 spot for the Tigers is a key to making their lineup go. However, when looking at his numbers, particularly through the use of sabermetrics, Polanco rated very poorly last season. Here is an example.

Polanco's OPS of .693 was last among 14 AL second basemen with at least 425 plate appearances in 2006. His Runs Created/27 Outs was 3.85, which was No. 13 in the same group.

So what gives? The Tigers clearly suffered without Polanco last year. Do intangibles outweigh mere numerical analysis or am I blinded by love for a player and the supposed benefits of "the little things" he brings to the lineup?

This much I know: Detroit was 72-38 with Polly in the lineup and 23-29 without him (by my count). Much of that damage came from mid-August to late September when Polanco was out with a shoulder injury.

It could be argued the Tigers were in a swoon anyway at that point, and Polly's absence was merely coincidental and not a true factor. However, prior to the injury, the Tigs were 70-33 with Polanco and just 8-8 without him.

Maybe it was all because of his defense; he did rank No. 3 in range factor among AL second basemen.

Numbers make my head hurt.

2 comments:

Stanley said...

It's quite a bit more work to figure out, but you might find more favorable numbers for Polanco if you compare him to 2 hitters instead of 2nd basemen.

Sparky said...

The link provided already did that, and Polanco ranked at the bottom of all the stats.