Sunday, August 19, 2007

Seeing Daylight

New York pitching was shaky again this week, but the offense exploded, enabling them to win five of six from two of the National League's weakest teams. After a spectacular bullpen implosion cost the Mets a sweep of the Pirates on Thursday, there was plenty of reason to worry about this team. But a weekend sweep in the nation's capital leaves the Mets with a five-game lead in the division, tying their largest of the season.

The Mets scored forty-three runs in six games games this week, hitting .318/.400/.516 as a team. This is all the more remarkable given that Carlos Delgado only played two games this week and either Mike DiFelice or Sandy Alomar, Jr. started every game at catcher. Carlos Beltran, apparently back to his 2006 form, led the way with four home runs and a .292/.379/.917 line for the week. David Wright and Moises Alou each also had an OPS over 1.000 and Marlon Anderson went four-for-ten with two doubles off the bench. This offense is finally starting to resemble the 2006 version, scoring 6.47 runs per game in the month of August, second best in the NL. With Beltran dominating again, Wright and Jose Reyes both slightly improving on their 2006 campaigns, Alou making up for the decline in Delgado's production, Lastings Milledge providing some offense out of right field and Luis Castillo playing the Paul Lo Duca role of "guy who gets on base enough to make up for the fact that he has no power," this offense could be just as dangerous as last year's.

Unfortunately, the pitching staff is also starting to look like something we've seen before. Tom Glavine and Orlando Hernandez have pitched well lately and Brian Lawrence has not been a disaster in the fifth spot. But John Maine and Oliver Perez each had another unimpressive start, allowing a total of six runs in ten and two-thirds innings. There may be some help on the way for this starting rotation, but I would feel much more confident if one or both of these guys put a few consecutive good starts together. The Mets may be able to win some 8-6 games in October, but I'd rather they didn't have to.

The lack of success and innings from the starting pitchers is all the more troubling given the recent performance from the bullpen. Billy Wagner has been dominant and Aaron Heilman and Pedro Feliciano have been pretty good. Jorge Sosa has also looked a lot better since moving to the pen. But the rest of the relievers, Scott Schoeneweis, Guillermo Mota and Aaron Sele, have been awful. Combined, they've allowed 148 hits and 54 walks in 127.2 innings with 88 strikeouts and a 5.29 ERA for the season. Schoeneweis and Mota have both been good against lefties, but if Willie Randolph isn't going to use them accordingly, what does that matter? Joe Smith has a 2.57 ERA in seven innings since being sent to New Orleans, but his 4:4 K:BB ratio does not inspire a lot of confidence. Lawrence might make a better long reliever than Sele and if certain other plans work out, Perez or Maine could find himself in the playoff pen as well. Aside from that, there isn't any help on the way. The sixth, seventh and eighth innings of October are likely to be extremely tense affairs.

The Mets (70-53) now return home with Ramon Castro and Damion Easley having joined Paul Lo Duca on the disabled list. Maintaining their offensive pace won't be easy as the Padres (65-57) bring the best pitching staff in the league to town. Maine (13-7, 3.59), Lawrence (1-0, 5.06) and Glavine (11-6, 4.12) will start in this series for the Mets. Chris Young (9-4, 1.93), Clay Hensley (2-3, 6.70) and Jake Peavy (13-5, 2.19) will go for San Diego.

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