I saw something in the Bill James Handbook that was interesting regarding 300-game winners, and seems relevant with all the discussion about whether Tom Glavine will be the last 300-game winner we see. I’ll simplify what James found by merely displaying the number of wins for certain pitchers through the age of 30 followed by their career totals.
Phil Niekro 54-318
Gaylord Perry 95-314
Early Wynn 101-300
Warren Spahn 108-363
Lefty Grove 115-300
Tom Glavine 139-300
Nolan Ryan 141-324
Steve Carlton 148-329
Randy Johnson 81-284
That’s 8 pitchers with 300 or more career wins that had fewer than half that total through the age of 30. Randy Johnson’s career might be finished, but he could become the ninth if he gets healthy. Pretty interesting, I think. James suggested at least one more active pitcher (other than Glavine or Johnson when this was written prior to the start of this season) would win 300. Some likely candidates are Roy Oswalt, Tim Hudson, Mark Buehrle, Roy Halladay – maybe even Javier Vasquez, who now has eight straight seasons of 10 or more victories.
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