The Mets are going to win the NL East. This much is obvious. They have a lead of seven games and a magic number of 11 with seventeen to play. The Braves and Phillies took their shots and came up woefully short. Now it's time to figure out the postseason roster without getting anyone hurt.
The biggest question right now surrounds the starting rotation. Tom Glavine, Pedro Martinez and Orlando Hernandez are basically guaranteed spots if they can remain healthy enough to claim them. Their doing so could be described as almost certain, increasingly likely and a little dicey, respectively. Glavine has been quite consistent in both performance and health, holding the Astros to one run on three hits in seven innings in his thirtieth and most recent start. Pedro followed up his promising season debut by blanking Houston for five innings on six hits and one walk with four strikeouts. And El Duque returned from injury on Tuesday to get lit up by the Braves for eight runs on six hits and four walks in three innings. El Duque could make the Mets' decision for them by continuing to pitch like this, but if he gets it together, they may have to make a tough choice to pare their rotation down to four in October.
Oliver Perez and John Maine have both stumbled in the second half after strong starts, but they both pitched well against Atlanta this week. Perez allowed two runs on five hits and two walks with five strikeouts in seven innings in Monday's win. Maine allowed one run on three hits and three walks and five strikeouts in six innings on Wednesday in a game that the bullpen tried but failed to give away. Perez has been the less awful of the two in the second half, but the fourth spot in the Mets' playoff rotation seemingly remains up for grabs. Both came through on the brink of elimination in last year's NLCS but only one is likely to get a shot at an encore.
The Mets (83-62) do still have some regular season games left to play. Despite El Duque's struggles and an injury to Carlos Delgado, they have heated up in September, winning nine of eleven and scoring more than five runs per game. This weekend they'll host the Wild Card-hungry Phillies (76-69) who only two weeks ago closed to within two games of first place. Glavine (13-6, 3.95) Pedro (2-0, 1.80) and Perez (14-9, 3.42) will start for the Mets against Jamie Moyer (13-11, 5.23), Kyle Lohse (8-12, 4.47) and Adam Eaton (9-9, 6.31). I know I said this last time, but I like those pitching matchups.
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