Friday, October 21, 2005

In different camps

My brother and I are clearly divided on Abreu and Burrell. He will defend Pat, pretty much no matter what, and I will step up for Bobby.

It's amazing how a misconception can become truth if it's repeated often enough. This is a frequent political tactic, and also one in dissing Abreu. The myth: Abreu chokes. The truth follows.

In 2003, Abreu hit .361 with 7 HR and 83 RBI with RISP. He batted .362-2-25 with RISP and 2 outs. He hit .250 with 9 HR with the bases empty.

In 2004, Abreu was .322-9-77 with RISP and .396-4-30 with RISP with 2 outs. Not to mention he struck out about once every 10 ABs in that situation. He hit .276 with 17 HR with the bases empty.

Last year, Abreu hit .303-7-76 with RISP. He did struggle with RISP and 2 outs, batting .238-2-27 -- so this is where the "Abreu gags" group gathered its ammo. On the bright side, he had 25 AB with a man on third and less than 2 outs, and had 25 RBI. He hit .267 with 10 HR with the bases empty.

If anything, the last 3 seasons demonstrate Abreu is historically a failure with the bases empty, not with men on base. I really think Abreu was hurt down the stretch. There were time when he was clearly limping. He isn't great defensively, but I would only trade him for a proven No. 1 starter, a No. 2 at worse.

Abreu is more valuable in trade offers because so much of Burrell's success has come in the Zen. Burrell hit .286 at home in 2004 and .293 last year. His slugging was .519 and .557 respectively. On the road, he was .231 and .269 for BA and .399 and .447 for SLG. He's hit 34 of his 56 HR the past two seasons at home.

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