Wednesday, September 27, 2006

Shawn Green stinks or: Thoughts on the Mets' postseason outfield

With the return of Ramon Castro from the disabled list, most of the decisions regarding the list of position players on the Mets' postseason roster are easy. Maybe there's some question as to whether Michael Tucker or Ricky Ledee gets to be the sixth outfielder, but if that winds up mattering, the Mets will be in some trouble already. It also seems like there's not much question as to who the Mets' starting outfield will be. Unfortunately, the Mets appear likely to make the wrong decision.

No one with eyes could argue that Shawn Green is a better defensive outfielder than Endy Chavez. Chavez is simply great, perhaps the best outfielder on the team. Having both Chavez and Carlos Beltran in the same outfield gives opposing offenses precious little room to place fly balls and line drives for hits. Green, on the other hand, stinks. He may make the occasional diving catch on a ball that Chavez would've caught with ease, but the fact that his hat flies off every time he runs is the only resemblance he bears to Willie Mays.

Of course, Shawn Green isn't getting paid eight million dollars this year for his glove. This is a guy who hit over forty home runs...four years ago. But Shawn Green circa 2006 is a hitter clearly on the decline. His OPS is under .800 and down about sixty points from last year. He's hit just fourteen home runs. In fact, he's been so bad that his on-base and slugging percentages are virtually identical to those perennial offensive sinkhole Endy Chavez. Chavez is having a career year, hitting .307/.348/.430 entering tonight's game, compared to Green's .277/.343/.429. Neither of these lines is great. Neither is even as good as the average NL right fielder. But given Chavez's speed and defense and Green's opposite of speed and defense, there can't be much question who's been the better player.

The Mets have run roughshod over the National League this season, and the difference between them and the next best team is probably greater than the difference between Green and Chavez. But with their offense slumping since clinching the division and their pitching growing more uncertain by the day, they can't afford to give away any runs on offense or defense. Endy Chavez is one of their three best outfielders. He may be in the top two at this point. There's no good reason he shouldn't be standing in right field when game one of the NLDS begins.

1 comment:

Sparky said...

Shawn Green went bad faster than milk on a hundred degree day. What in the world happened to him?

There's no doubt Endy is the superior fielder, and, this year, not going to be a drop off with the bat, either.

Beltran and Chavez ranked 1st and 12th, respectively, among NL outfielders in range factor (among those with at least 100 games). Green's RF is about 0.7 worse than Chavez. I'm guessing Chavez has played some in CF, which probably boosts his number some, but it's still no contest.