Thursday, April 12, 2007

Maybe this is what Jimmy Rollins meant by "the team to beat"

The Mets took Rollins up on his offer in two out of three games despite less than stellar starting pitching. On Monday a Rollins error opened the door for the Mets to take batting practice against the Phillies' bullpen in a seven-run eighth inning. Overall they scored eleven runs despite just one extra base hit. Wednesday's game saw Adam Eaton somehow hold them to just two runs on four hits and three walks over seven innings. The bats showed signs of life on Thursday scoring five runs on nine hits including two doubles and a triple. The New York offense leads the National League with 54 runs scored through nine games.

The Mets have allowed the second fewest runs in the league, 23, but this series was not a great one for their starters. On Monday John Maine had to be removed with two outs in the fifth inning having already allowed five hits and six walks, though he was wily enough to limit the Phillies to just two runs. Oliver Perez was not so wily on Wednesday, walking seven in two and two-thirds innings, giving up three runs despite allowing just one hit. Tom Glavine's trademark craftiness could not quite overcome the cold, windy conditions at Shea on Thursday as he gave up three runs on three walks and four hits, including two Rollins home runs, in six innings.

Perez's meltdown is obviously the most troubling of the three. He pitched a good first inning before completely losing his control in the second inning. Perez has had outings like this before, for example last June 23rd when he walked seven in three and two-thirds innings. Last April he walked five batters in a start shorter than five innings twice. There's no reason to think that this disaster will completely shatter his confidence and ruin him forever. It's disappointing after his good spring and excellent first start to see that he may still be the same guy he was the last two years.

The leisurely pace of these first two weeks is about to speed up as the second-place Mets (6-3) don't have another day in the next fortnight. Luckily they get to ease into this stretch with a series at home against the Nationals (2-8). Mike Pelfrey (2-1, 5.48 in 2006) will be called up to make his season debut on Friday. He will be opposed by the theoretical ace of the Nats, John Patterson (0-2, 9.35). Patterson has a career 5.18 ERA against the Mets in twelve starts, having allowed fourteen home runs in 64.1 innings.

Orlando Hernandez (1-0, 1.38) will start Saturday afternoon's game for the Mets. El Duque has been quite successful thus far despite a K:BB ratio of 6:6 and two home runs allowed in thirteen innings. Shawn Hill (0-2, 3.09) will go for Washington. Given that this game will start at 1:10 on a day when Fox is showing games around four, I expect to have some trouble watching it on MLB.TV.

John Maine (1-0, 1.54) will try to rebound from his rough second start on Sunday with the aid of a very beatable opposing offense. Rookie Matt Chico (0-1, 7.27) will see if he can get the Mets out after not having much luck against the Marlins or Braves.

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