Thursday, April 30, 2009

Behind the offensive numbers

A quick look at some stats as April nears completion.

There are 13 MLB players with BABIPs above .400, which is quite high and an indication they could see their stats drop off over time. Of that group, 10 have line drive percentages of 25% or better, so it would appear most of those guys are coming by their .400+ BABIP legitimately. The more line drives, the more likely hits.

One guy on that list in the most danger would seem to be Bobby Abreu, who is batting .363 with 0 HR and 12 RBI (and 8 SB). Abreu has a .420 BABIP and 17% LD, which makes me think he's swatted a few groundballs with eyes. He's the only .400+ BABIP below 20% LD. Also, his drop in slugging might be a concern.

Adrian Gonzalez has 9 HR so far this year, but his 42% homer/flyball ratio is nuts. Last year, his HR/F was 23%, which was a career high.

Andy LaRoche has been stinging the ball to a 27% LD clip but is batting only .254 because his BABIP is .291. Looks like Andy's had some bad luck. Curtis Granderson, too. Grandy has been slapping liners 25% of the time and is batting .241 with a .222 BABIP. He's been popping up more, which could be a factor. Alex Rios is batting .237 (.282 BABIP) despite 24% LD. Rios also has a ridiculously low 3.6% HR/F rate. Kelly Johnson is hitting .203 (.204 BABIP) with 18% LD, so he might be a bounce-back guy, too.

Other guys with BABIPs below .250 with 20%+ LD are: Ty Wigginton, Khalil Greene, David DeJesus, Emmanuel Burriss, Jason Varitek, Cesar Izturis, Mike Aviles, and Austin Kearns.

From a fantasy standpoint, it's worth keeping an eye on these guys.

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