The Tigers are 48-39 and hold a 3.5-game lead over the White Sox and 4-game lead over the Twins. With KC falling 11.5 back, it looks safe to call this a three-horse race for the title.
Detroit is averaging 4.8 runs while giving up 4.4. Chicago is averaging 4.6 runs and giving up 4.6. Minnesota is averaging 4.9 runs and allowing 4.5. Based on runs created and allowed, it would seem the Twins should be better than a game over .500, so that's a concern.
Another concern: The Twins have played 25 games against the AL East (going 6-19). The Tigers and White Sox both played only 14 games against the East (with Detroit going 4-10 and the Sox going 5-9). Detroit still has 22 games vs. the East, with 12 at home.
The Tigers are 27-13 at home.
One advantage for Detroit, the Twins have played 48 games at home (28-20) and they are only 17-24 on the road.
Detroit has 42 starts with Game Scores of 50 or better (going 34-8). The Tigers have 24 starts with Game Scores of 40 or worse (going 4-20).
Chicago has 48 starts with Game Scores of 50 or better (going 35-13). The Sox have 26 starts with Game Scores of 40 or worse (going 5-21).
Minnesota has 47 starts with Game Scores of 50 or better (going 34-13). The Twins have 26 starts with Game Scores of 40 or worse (going 5-21).
To break it down a bit more, Detroit pitchers have 25 starts with Game Scores of 65 or better ("gem" territory) while the White Sox have 26 and the Twins have 16.
This would seem to indicate that Detroit and Chicago will need to get solid pitching in the second half, or they might struggle. The Twins would appear to have a more consistent offense and with any improved pitching could be most dangerous.
Detroit has 3 regular starters and 5 relievers with ERA+ of 100 or better. Chicago has 5 regular starters and 5 relievers with ERA+ of 100 or better. Minnesota has 1 regular starter and 4 relievers with ERA+ of 100 or better.
The Tigers top of the rotation, with Justin Verlander and Edwin Jackson, is better than the White Sox, but Chicago has gotten good production throughout the rotation. The keys for the Tigers, other than hoping Verlander and Jackson continue to shine, will be how rookie Rick Porcello fares deeper in the season and whether Armando Garlarraga can pick up any slack.