Behind the offensive numbers

A quick look at some stats as April nears completion.

There are 13 MLB players with BABIPs above .400, which is quite high and an indication they could see their stats drop off over time. Of that group, 10 have line drive percentages of 25% or better, so it would appear most of those guys are coming by their .400+ BABIP legitimately. The more line drives, the more likely hits.

One guy on that list in the most danger would seem to be Bobby Abreu, who is batting .363 with 0 HR and 12 RBI (and 8 SB). Abreu has a .420 BABIP and 17% LD, which makes me think he's swatted a few groundballs with eyes. He's the only .400+ BABIP below 20% LD. Also, his drop in slugging might be a concern.

Adrian Gonzalez has 9 HR so far this year, but his 42% homer/flyball ratio is nuts. Last year, his HR/F was 23%, which was a career high.

Andy LaRoche has been stinging the ball to a 27% LD clip but is batting only .254 because his BABIP is .291. Looks like Andy's had some bad luck. Curtis Granderson, too. Grandy has been slapping liners 25% of the time and is batting .241 with a .222 BABIP. He's been popping up more, which could be a factor. Alex Rios is batting .237 (.282 BABIP) despite 24% LD. Rios also has a ridiculously low 3.6% HR/F rate. Kelly Johnson is hitting .203 (.204 BABIP) with 18% LD, so he might be a bounce-back guy, too.

Other guys with BABIPs below .250 with 20%+ LD are: Ty Wigginton, Khalil Greene, David DeJesus, Emmanuel Burriss, Jason Varitek, Cesar Izturis, Mike Aviles, and Austin Kearns.

From a fantasy standpoint, it's worth keeping an eye on these guys.

Central time

Detroit meets Cleveland for a three-game set this weekend. The Tigers need to jump on Carl Pavano (0-3, 9.50 ERA) in the opener and put two losses to the Yankees behind them. The Tigs are tied for first in the AL Central, thanks in large part to beating up on the Texas Rangers. Otherwise, Detroit is looking like a hover-around-.500 type. Given the makeup of the Central, this is not necessarily bad. But the Tigs need to take care of business in the Central, particularly because they might struggle against the East.

To be 11-10 when Justin Verlander has an ERA north of 6, Magglio Ordonez took the better part of April to get his first extra-base hit, Placido Polanco has an OBP south of .300 (career .349), Marcus Thames has spent more time on the DL than at the plate, and Jeremy Bonderman and Joel Zumaya have yet to appear, can give one reason to believe the glass is half full.

Or it might just be an indication the glass is leaking.

It's like Willie Randolph never left

Prior to about 4 PM today, I was not too worried about the Mets. Yes, they've gotten off to a slow start. But David Wright isn't going to strike out in a third of his at bats for the whole season. Oliver Perez is going to get his ERA under nine at some point. Getting a bunch of runners on base will eventually lead to a lot of runs being scored. But now I'm wondering if any of that matters given that the team's manager is clearly out of his mind.

Down 4-3 in the bottom of the ninth, the bullpen having stolen another win from Johan Santana, the Met offense didn't give up. They loaded the bases. Sure, it took two walks and a hit by pitch, but they loaded the bases. With two outs, loaded bases and a one-run deficit, Ramon Castro was scheduled to bat. Castro had two hits in the game already and a career's worth of evidence that he is a decent hitter. Still, Jerry Manuel decided to pinch hit for Castro. Did he bring in the team leader in home runs, Carlos Delgado, to face Matt Lindstrom and his 100 MPH fastball? Or maybe the owner of a .433 OBP on the season, Luis Castillo? No, he had Omir Santos, who had been out in the bullpen warming up pitchers all day, run down to the dugout to hit for Castro.

Omir Santos has had a hot week. That hot week has included zero walks and a .280 OBP, but still. He's had a few hits and a grand slam. He's looked good. He's also spent eight years in the minor leagues, amassing a career OPS of .651. Omir Santos is not a great hitter. He is not better Ramon Castro. He is not the kind of guy who's likely to spend the whole day squatting in the bullpen and then come in and rope a game-winning single against a flamethrower like Lindstrom.

The idea to choose lesser players over Castro isn't a new one for the Mets and it didn't start with Jerry Manuel. But pinch hitting for him with the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth with another catcher on a day when he already has two hits is among the most baffling instances this side of Paul Lo Duca's entire 2007 season. Manuel's explanation is that Santos's "shorter swing" would give him a better shot against the hard-throwing Lindstrom. Yeah, I guess Castro's never had any success against any other hard throwers.

Now, a 9-12 record isn't the end of the world. And all of this could be forgotten if the Mets win two or three games in Philadelphia this weekend. But in the early going, Jerry Manuel's ability to determine who his best players are and allocate playing time accordingly is not inspiring a lot of confidence.

News and notes

Justin Verlander had his best outing of the season the other night against the Yanks. Hopefully, it wasn't a mirage. The Detroit Tigers Weblog had this interesting article about his struggles prior to Monday night.

Detroit's starters have thrown 16 straight scoreless innings heading into tonight's game against NY. Over the last 12 games, the starters have a 3.07 ERA.

Brandon Inge has reached base in all 20 games this year. It's the longest streak by a Tiger to open the year since 2005 when Inge reached in 21 consecutive. Given Inge's struggles at the plate, that's rather odd.

Josh Anderson has been a pleasant surprise at the dish. He's batting .351/.400/.486 with nine runs, six RBI, and six SB as Detroit's top part-timer. Unfortunately, he had a rough go of it last night in the field. His misplaying of a soft liner in the seventh inning helped open the floodgates to a 10-run NY outburst.

Last night's game was the first time in history that an AL game tied 0-0 in the seventh inning or later was broken up by a 10-run inning. It happened once, in 1919, in the NL.

Edwin Jackson threw 117 pitches in 6 innings last night, and Robinson Cano was a big reason why. Cano was a foulball-producing machine. Over two ABs, he made Jackson throw 22 pitches.

The Tigers are 9-1 when leading after six innings. They are 2-8 when trailing or tied after six innings.

Detroit's batting order from 1-5 has been almost written in stone. With only two exceptions, it's been Curtis Granderson, Placido Polanco, Magglio Ordonez, Miguel Cabrera, and Carlos Guillen. From there, it's most often been Gerald Laird, Brandon Inge, Brandon Inge, and Adam Everett. Yep, Inge is the person with the most appearances in both the 7 and 8 spots. Otherwise, Laird, Anderson and Ramon Santiago have seen time there.

Rick Porcello pitches tonight for the Tigs. When he made his major league debut on April 9 at Toronto, he faced Ricky Romero, who also was in his big league debut. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, it was the first time since the draft began in 1965 that two first-round picks faced each other in their MLB debuts.

Dontrelle Willis will start for Triple-A Toledo on Friday.

One down, eight to go

Tigers disappointing ace Justin Verlander meets Yankees disappointing ace C.C. Sabathia tonight as Detroit begins a 3-game set vs. NY. It's the Tigs' only series against a non-AL Central team for a while.

On one of the other Tigers' blogs, there is a writer who breaks down the season into 9 "innings." That means each 18-game stretch is an "inning." Therefore, the Tigers are 10-8 after the first inning of the season --- and all alone in first place. I don't know that it has any value to break down the season in such fashion, but it's kind of neat thinking of the season as nine innings (which I think was the sole idea behind it).

Detroit was 6-12 last year after 18 games.

Last year the Tigers were batting .262/.343/.404 for .747 OPS. This season, Detroit is .276/.349/.432 for .781. Last year, the Tigers had 138 LOB; this year 120. Last year they had 15 HR; this year 21. Last year they averaged 4.1 runs per game; this year 5.7. The AL average for OPS is .773 and R/G is 5.1.

As for the pitching, the Tigers are allowing 4.7 runs per game compared to 6.2 last year. Their ERA is 4.39 compared to 5.70. They have 2 SHO compared to zero. They have a K/BB ratio of 2.09 compared to 1.14. And that's with Verlander pitching poorly and Jeremy Bonderman on the DL.

O's Week Three

The O's went 3-4 on the week.  Highlights of the week were Brad Bergeson's victory over the White Sox in his Major League debut,  Adam Eaton's victory over same and the continued bashing at the top of the order.

Bergesen went 5 2/3 IP allowing 1 Earned Run in a 10-3 victory and Eaton pitched 7 1/3 IP allowing 2 Earned Runs in a 6-2 win.  Koji Uehara also had an excellent start (6 2/3 IP,  2 Earned Runs) this week but the bullpen was unable to make it stand up.

Brian Roberts, Adam Jones and Nick Markakis are hitting  .372, .348 and .389 respectively at the top of the order.  The rest of the batting order cooled this week.

Through 3 weeks, Orioles pitching has walked fewer batters than all but 3 AL teams.

Lowlights were the blown save by George Sherrill on Saturday and the defense.  

Accept the blown save and move on, as no closer can be expected to succeed in every opportunity.  It remains disappointing because Uehara had such a good start and the blown save turned out to be the difference between a winning and losing Week 3.  

The defense continued its' sloppy play.  In the AL, only Seattle has committed more errors than Baltimore.

Do run run

The expanded stats on baseball-reference.com are incredible. I was looking at baserunning stats for AL teams. Toronto leads the league in runs per game. The Jays also lead in the number of times they've had runners score from second on a single, 19 of 29 with the other 10 baserunners stopping at third. The Yankees are fourth in runs per game, but have only scored 8 of 17 times from second on a single. But the Yanks have scored from first on a double 9 of 16 times. Texas ranks second in runs per game, but is doing it mostly with the long ball. The Rangers have 35 HR, which is 6 more than No. 2 Toronto and 14 better than the league average. They also have been successful on 18 of 20 stolen base attempts. Better minds than mine could make something of all this data.

Left is alright

The left side of the Tigers' infield was supposed to be slick with the glove and sloppy with the stick. Instead, 3B Brandon Inge leads the Tigs with a 1.098 OPS. He's got 6 HR and 15 RBI batting at the bottom of the order. SS Adam Everett's OPS is .772 and his OPS+ is 99. Everett has never posted an OPS+ better than 80 in his career. Oddly, he's made 3 errors this season and his fielding percentage of .930 is well below his .976. Of course, fielding percentage is misleading and not all errors are created equally.

Detroit is 9-8 entering today. The Tigers are 6th in the AL with a team OPS of .794 and are fourth in runs per game. While Inge has been a surprise, it's also been a surprise Magglio Ordonez didn't pick up his first extra base hit (a homer) until last night. I guess things do sort of even out.

Going to Kansas City

Detroit motors into KC for a 3-game set. No break in the opener; the Tigs face Zach Greinke, who has a 34-inning scoreless streak dating back to last season. That's a franchise record, breaking Kevin Appier's mark of 33 set in 1993. Greinke is coming off a shutout in Texas, the Royals first shutout in Texas since Bud Black in 1985.

Rick Porcello goes for Detroit.

Since the start of the 2006 season, Detroit leads all visitors with 180 runs at Kauffman Stadium. The Tigers are 20-7 in KC during that span.

KC is tied with Seattle for the AL lead with 3 shutouts this season. What is even more strange --- the Pirates lead the NL with 4.

The Tigers face AL Central teams in 16 of their next 19 games. The only non-Central team in the mix is the Yankees. It's early, but I'm saying to win the AL Central this year, you've got to beat the AL Central. So this could be, if nothing else, a barometer.

Detroit recalled Joel Zumaya from Triple-A Toledo. In 4 IP for the Mud Hens, over 3 games, he allowed zero runs, two hits, and struck out 5.

Sweet on Eaton

Rare occurrences:

Adam Eaton receiving a standing ovation from hometown fans (excluding the one he got as he walked through the airport exiting Philadelphia).

Pitching lines like: 7.1 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 9 K. Eaton did not surrender a run during his time on the mound last night for Baltimore; he left with runners on the corners that later scored.

In fairness to Eaton, I felt he got a bit of a bad rap in Philly. Most of the trouble came from his contract; he was a No. 5 starter, but they paid him like an ace. That's not Eaton's fault.

And last year, Eaton had five starts in which he pitched seven innings (or into the seventh inning) and gave up 3 ER or fewer. He was 1-3 in those outings and the Phils went 1-4. It's also interesting to note that Eaton threw 12 games to Chris Coste and 9 to Carlos Ruiz last year. His OPS allowed was .981 with Coste behind the plate and .743 with Ruiz as the backstop.

Anyway, the last time Eaton threw into the eighth inning and was charged with fewer than 3 ER was May 15, 2007. The last time he did it with as many as 9 K and 0 BB was --- never.

Double digits

As a follow up to the previous post, here are the 2008 records of AL teams when giving up 10 or more runs:

Angels 3-10
Athletics 0-13
Blue Jays 0-2
Indians 0-12
Mariners 0-14
Orioles 1-20
Rangers 4-22
Rays 0-5
Red Sox 1-13
Royals 1-12
Tigers 1-18
Twins 0-14
White Sox 0-11
Yankees 1-13

So the Tigers were bad. The two teams that jump out are the Blue Jays, for the lack of such games, and the Rangers, for the many (and the number of wins).

Overall, counting both the NL and AL, teams in 2008 had a win percentage of .638 when scoring 5 runs, .707 when scoring 6, .804 when scoring 7, .846 when scoring 8, etc. They had a win percentage of .480 when scoring 4, .364 when 3, .202 when 2, and .083 when 1.

Boom, boom, boom, boom

There was a lot of talk about Detroit needing to win slugfests, and being capable of winning slugfests, with its potent lineup. Last night, the Tigers finally did. They beat LA 12-10, marking the first time this year they won a game in which their opponent scored more than 4 runs. Overall, the Tigs are 1-5 when their foes put up 5 runs or better.

According to Tigers.com, not since 1999 had Tigers pitching given up double-digit earned runs in a nine-inning game and still won.

Last year, Detroit gave up double digits 19 times. I don't know what other teams did, but gosh that sounds awfully high. The Tigers were 1-18 in those games (with the win coming in extra innings). They were 19-49 when giving up 5 to 9 runs.

News and notes

The Detroit Free Press pointed out that after last night's 4-3 loss in LA, the Tigers are 1-2 in games decided in the seventh inning or later --- and Brandon Lyon has the decision in each.

Marcus Thames was placed on the 15-day DL because of a muscle injury suffered during batting practice on Tuesday. Ryan Raburn was called up to take his spot.

GM Dave Dombrowski told the Detroit News that the Tigs have no intentions of trading Miguel Cabrera, as speculated by ESPN talking heads. Dombrowski said the rumor was "absurd" and he was "upset" by the speculation. He added, "There's nothing that can happen this year that would make us think about trading Miguel Cabrera."

Not much talk about when Jeremy Bonderman might return to the rotation. I don't view this silence as a positive.

Dontrelle Willis gave up 2 ER on 8 H in 7 IP for Class-A Lakeland. He walked zero, which is a good sign. He threw 58 of his 75 pitches for strikes.

Detroit's batting this year: .279/.359/.432 (.792 OPS) with 72 R, 50 BB, 83 K, 98 LOB.

Detroit's batting last year: .251/.329/.368 (.697 OPS) with 44 R, 48 BB, 77 K, 97 LOB.

News and notes

Detroit won two games in Seattle without hitting a homer. Last year, the Tigers won only 13 games in which they failed to go yard. That was the second-lowest total in the AL.

Magglio Ordonez is looking for his first extra base hit, and the Tigers visit to the LA Angels might be the remedy. Ordonez has a .630 slg percentage in 43 games at Angel Stadium, the third highest mark among active players.

Since the start of 2007, the Tigers have averaged 6.08 runs per game against the AL West. It is the best in the AL.

Detroit has produced at least 8 hits in each of its first 12 games this season. It is the club's longest such streak since 1954.

Over the last 10 games, a span of 27.2 innings, the Tigers' bullpen has posted a 1.95 ERA and held foes to a .172 batting average.

Armando Galarraga pitches for the Tigs tonight. Since joining Detroit's rotation last year, Galarraga has limited opponents to 7.55 hits per game and a .224 batting average. Those numbers rank fourth and third, respectively, in the AL.

The Tigers (7-5) are 2-3 when scoring 4 runs or less, 1-1 when scoring 5 runs, and 4-1 when scoring 6 or more runs. They have scored no fewer than 2 runs in any game. Now, to flip it, Detroit is 7-0 when allowing 4 or fewer runs, which makes it 0-5 when allowing 5 or more. The staff has given up 2 or fewer runs five times.

Detroit has already posted two shutouts this season -- equaling its total from 2008.

The Angels were swept in Minnesota over the weekend and are struggling in the wake of Nick Adenhart's death. "That tragedy knocked us down," Angels centerfielder Torii Hunter told the Orange County (Ca.) Register last week. "You can tell guys are trying to find it. You can feel the energy is kind of low in the clubhouse right now."

Twenty? Twenty?

Twenty-year-old Rick Porcello became the fourth-youngest Detroit starter since 1954 to earn a win when yesterday he beat Seattle, 8-2. Those younger were Bob Miller, Denny McLain and Bruce Robbins. Miller ended up 6-8 in a five-year career while McLain had one great season, two very good seasons and six below average seasons (based on ERA+) before bowing out of the game prior to the age of 29. Robbins ended up 7-5 in two seasons.

That's not a great track record.

I'll find solace in Hal Newhouser, who won nine games at the age of 19 and went on to a Hall of Fame career.

Dan Petry is an in-between case. He joined the Tigers at 20 and went 93-64 with a 3.49 ERA (ERA+ 116) over his first seven seasons. He was 32-40 with a 4.85 ERA (ERA+ 84) his last six seasons. Moving away from the Tigs, how about Dwight Gooden? As a 20-year-old he put up one of the greatest seasons ever for a pitcher. For his first six seasons, he was 100-39 with a 2.64 ERA (ERA+ 132). The next 10 years, he was 94-73 with a 4.24 ERA (ERA+ 99).

C.C. Sabathia got his first win at 20 and has yet to see a dropoff. He is one of the rare players I could find to be successful, but I did a very limited search on baseball-reference.com. Pedro Martinez made his debut at 20 (only 2 games) and has survived nicely. We still have to wait and see with Felix Hernandez.

Maybe the most sustained goodness belonged to Bert Blyleven.

Oh, there's Rick Ankiel ...

O's Week 2

The O's went 2-4 in Week 2 taking 2 of 3 from Texas and losing 3 straight to Boston, all on the road.

The offense continued to bash while in Texas but immediately cooled once reaching Boston.  No big surprise there, however, Adam Jones left Sunday's game in the 2nd inning with right (ugh) hamstring soreness.   Melvin Mora is on the DL already with a hamstring problem.  

The starters were awful in Week 2, completing only 25 2/3 innings of the 51 pitched and logging a 9.81 ERA.  Alfredo Simon went on the DL after completing 1 1/3 innings in his start at Texas.  Brad Bergesen (1-1, 2.45 ERA at Norfolk) is expected to take Simons' start on Tuesday.  At least there is that to look forward to.

The bullpen showed signs of rounding into form while posting a 5.68 ERA in 25 1/3 innings.   10 runs in 4 1/3 innings in Game 3 against Texas was the only sore spot for the week.

The defense was shabby and currently ranks 10th in the AL.

So, game 4 in Boston today and then back home to face the White Sox and Rangers.

A weakened batting order, poor starting pitching and a shaky defense does not bode well for Week 3.

On the road again

Detroit plays in Seattle tonight. Here are some notes from the Tigers' Web site:

Miguel Cabrera is the third Tiger since 1955 to collect at least 17 hits and 12 RBI in the team's first nine games. The others were Chris Shelton in 2006 and Al Kaline in 1955.

Justin Verlander will start tonight against Seattle (Felix Hernandez). Verlander is 6-1 with a 2.91 ERA in seven career starts against the Mariners. This will be Verlander's 100th career start for Detroit.

Curtis Granderson is 8-for-15 in his career vs. Felix Hernandez with a double and a homer. He's also struck out 6 times.

Dontrelle Willis is scheduled to pitch a rehab game for Single-A Lakeland on Tuesday. Joel Zumaya is slated to pitch for Triple-A Toledo on Saturday.

To the nines

This should've been the 10-game mark for the Tigers and their first day off, but a rainout Tuesday makes this the 9-game mark as Detroit heads to the West Coast. A few thoughts. First, it was important for the Tigs to beat down the White Sox yesterday and split what became a two-game series. Detroit needs to take care of business within the AL Central, especially considering how tough it will be to take games in the East.

Last year, the Tigers were 1-8 at this point. They averaged 3.1 runs per game and had an OPS of .702 with 56 Ks in 352 PAs. As for the pitching, they gave up 6.4 runs per game. They allowed 47 walks and 7 HRs while striking out 54 in 81 innings.

This year, the Tigers are 5-4. They averaged 6.2 runs per game and had an OPS of .844 with 52 strikeouts in 355 PAs. As for the pitching, they gave up 4.8 runs per game. They allowed 29 walks and 15 HR while striking out 67 in 78.2 innings. So even while giving up twice the homers, they're much better off thanks to significantly reduced walks and increased strikeouts. (Note: Reducing walks was the primary charge of new pitching coach Rick Knapp.)

Four teams are averaging better than 6 runs per game in the AL this year -- Baltimore, Detroit, Toronto and Texas -- and those teams make up the top 4 in OBP.

Baltimore

Not seen since 1973, the O's unveil the new (old) road uniforms last night in Texas.

Reflections

I cannot remember another day in which two baseball legends passed away, such as today with Phillies announcer Harry Kalas and ex-Tiger Mark Fidrych. Maybe it's just hit me harder because of my connections to both.

For as long as I've followed baseball, Kalas was the voice of the Phillies. It's hard to imagine not hearing his magnificent voice during future games. One of my favorite memories came during the radio postgame show of a game from either 1989 or 1990 (I can't recall, but it's not important). Von Hayes had hit a game-winner dinger in the bottom of the ninth and was being interviewed by Kalas following the game. During the interview, Kalas' home-run call was replayed. Hayes just chuckled and said with genuine admiration, "Harry, you sure can call 'em."

I don't know why, but that interview has always stuck with me. Kalas was no doubt "the soundtrack" to our baseball lives in the Philly area.

Then came the news about Fidrych. I was just a Little Leaguer when "The Bird" took baseball by storm. I remember his Monday night game against the Yankees, after which the fans refused to leave Tiger Stadium until he came out. Fidrych was overwhelmed and emotional, and not afraid to show it. And he never stopped being that kid and he never lost his humility. I'm fortunate to have that game on DVD and it's a game I'll always treasure.

Fidrych was the Rookie of the Year in 1976 and finished second to Jim Palmer in the Cy Young Award voting. With no disrespect to Palmer, an argument can be made it should've been Fidrych's award. The Bird was 19-9 on a team that finished 13 games below .500 and he was the only Detroit starter with a winning record. His ERA+ of 158 led the AL, as did his 24 complete games and 2.34 ERA. Palmer was 22-13 on a team that was 13 games above .500 and featured another 20-game winner in Wayne Garland. Five Baltimore starters had winning records.

It is hard to think of a player who only appeared in such limited action (only 58 games over 5 injury-plagued seasons) being so revered and beloved to this very day. Even at the height of his popularity he wore blue jeans, drove a beat-up old pickup truck, and claimed he had three dishes: a plate, a knife, and a fork.

This story, which I've noted before, from director Peter Farrelly that appeared in Sports Illustrated a few years ago tells you all you need to know about Fidrych, the man:

We offered him a role in Me, Myself and Irene. He drives a truck and lives on a farm in Massachusetts. He said, "Great, I'd love to, when is it?" I said, "It's this Wednesday." He said, "I can't do it. I have a delivery to make." I said, "Mark, is there any way to get somebody else to do the delivery so you can do the movie?" He said, "Pete, I've been making this delivery for the past 18 years every Wednesday. They count on me to be there every Wednesday. I'm not going to miss a day because I'm in a movie." I hung up thinking: That's one cool dude.

Fidrych and Kalas. Two cool dudes. Gone, but never to be forgotten.