Phillies Win Game 1

ConvincingLee.

On a Brighter Note

Brian Roberts has 55 doubles on the season, tying Lance Berkman's MLB record for doubles in a season by a switch hitter.

$18 million man

The Tigers will owe Magglio Ordonez $18 million next season now that his option is guaranteed. Much has been made of this, particularly as Ordonez has struggled offensively much of this season. But maybe there can be room for hope. While it is doubtful Ordonez can produce at an $18-million level in 2010, maybe he can get to $10 million or a little more?

Over his last 35 games entering Friday, Ordonez was batting .382 and slugging .518. His OPS during that span was .971.

Looking at Magg's stats, he is hitting line drives at his usual rate and not swinging at pitches out of the strike zone any more than normal. He also is making contact across the board at his usual rate. The big difference is his groundball rate is 10% higher than usual. Groundballs are outs 75% of the time and -- obviously -- can't be home runs.

If his recent hitting is not just a flash in the pan maybe Maggs can return to being an above-average producer again.

Felix the Bat

In the 26 games he's played since the All Star break, Felix Pie is hitting .317 with 6 HR and 16 RBI and a Slugging Avg of .610. Those 26 games include one in which he hit for the cycle.

The return of Nate

Nate Robertson will return to the Tigers' starting rotation on Saturday after 5 games at Triple-A Toledo where he posted a 1.89 ERA and had a K/BB rate of 21/4 in 19 IP. What a boost an even mediocre (not great) Nate could be.

Detroit hosts TB this weekend. The Tigers are 5 games ahead in the loss column of Chicago and Minny. It would be terrific if the Tigs could take 2 of 3, especially being at home. And the White Sox are playing in the Bronx and the Twins are hosting the Rangers. It could be a chance to open more ground.

This will never happen

But it would be fun to see Jamie Moyer striding in from the pen to close. After the performances of Lidge and Madson, why not? I know conventional wisdom says Moyer's slop cannot be closer stuff. Yet here is something to consider: Moyer was at his best this season on pitches 1-25, when batters went .240/.310/.403 against him.

Here is something else I noticed about Moyer, which would not bode well for him as a closer. Last season, he allowed an OPS of .549 when he had two strikes on a batter. That was dead-on league average. Also, he was super when he was at 0-2, yielding a .342 OPS, which was 27% better than league average.

This year, Moyer is allowing an OPS of .725 when he has two strikes, which is 65% worse than league average. When the count is 0-2, batters are smacking to the tune of a .598 OPS, which is 115% worse than league average.

Again, that's .549/.725 with two strikes and .342/.598 when 0-2. If Moyer cannot trick batters with two strikes, he is in trouble.

C.C. rider

Remember the splash C.C. Sabathia made last year with the Brewers when he was traded from the Indians. Well, as great as Sabathia pitched, he had nothing on Cliff Lee -- at least through their first 5 appearances in the NL.

Sabathia went 4-0 with a 1.82 ERA. He pitched 39.2 innings, allowing 29 hits while walking 10 and striking out 34. Foes had a .559 OPS. He threw 3 complete games including a shutout.

Lee is 5-0 with a 0.68 ERA. He has pitched 40 innings, allowing 24 hits while walking 6 and striking out 39. Foes have a .443 OPS. He has thrown 2 complete games and gave up no earned runs in one.

That sound you just heard was Indians' fans knocking their heads against the wall.

Sabathia made 12 more starts for Milwaukee and went 7-2 with a 1.58 ERA, so Lee still has his work cut out for him if he wants to better Sabathia the rest of the way. But it is an amazing beginning for Lee.

Needing some O

The Tigers added O to their lineup today in the former of acquiring Aubrey Huff from the Orioles. At least that's the hope. Huff has decent numbers, but not up to his usual standards. In that regard, he will fit in nicely in Detroit.

Detroit holds a 3-game lead in the loss column in the AL Central. The formula has been pretty consistent this year -- get good pitching, win; don't get good pitching, lose. The Tigers are 44-7 when allowing 3 runs or fewer. They are 18-48 the rest of the time.

Offensively, Detroit has been shut out only 3 times, but has scored between 2-5 runs in 81 of 117 games. That's 69 percent. They are 32-49 when scoring between 2-5 runs, which thanks to the pitching, isn't bad. They exceed the MLB win percentages for games in which they score 2, 3 and 4 runs. They are below average when scoring 5.

The Tigers are 11-3 when scoring 4 runs, which is a .786 win clip. The MLB average is .517.

Detroit is 11th in the AL in OPS and 11th in BB/K ratio. The Tigers are 2nd in swinging at the highest percentage of pitches in the strike zone, but that could be in part because they are 4th in highest percentage of swings. They are 11th in percentage of making contact on balls in the strike zone and 10th in overall contact.

Smoltz to Detroit?

Way back in 1987, the Tigers traded 20-year-old prospect John Smoltz to the Atlanta Braves for Doyle Alexander. It is one of the most rehashed trades of all time, thanks to what Smoltz became. But Alexander went 9-0 with a 1.53 ERA for Detroit and helped the Tigs win the division.

Smoltz was designated for assignment by the Red Sox and I'm not alone in wondering whether he might now finally pitch for the Tigers. He is a Michigan native and it would be pretty wild if he joined the squad and helped them win the division this season.

In Boston, Smoltz posted an 8.33 ERA in 8 starts. According to fangraphs.com, his K/9 was 7.43 and BB/9 was 2.03. Those aren't terrible numbers. His BABIP was a ridiculous .390 and his LOB percentage an equally absurd 57 percent. His line drive percentage was 18, so he's not getting raked. Something doesn't compute.

His fastball is averaging 91.3 mph, which isn't bad either. The speed of his slider is down by about 2 mph, so I wonder if that's the trouble? Batters are making contact on 63 percent of pitches outside the strike zone, so could one guess the slider is no longer a swing-and-a-miss?

Still, given the Tigers need for pitching, it is intriguing.

Cole gets coal in 2009 stocking

In sabermetrics, it is argued that the “three true outcomes,” which are walks, strikeouts and homers, can provide a better window into a pitcher’s future performance than wins, losses and ERA. If that is true, it is worth taking a look at Cole Hamels using this method.

Getting stats from baseball-reference.com, Hamels has faced 542 batters so far this season. He has a 4.77 ERA. Last year, after facing 530 batters (the nearest comparison I could easily calculate), Hamels had a 3.18 ERA.

In 2008, Hamels had 118 K, 33 BB and 17 HR through 530 batters. This season, he has 111 K, 27 BB and 20 HR.

To take it another step, in 2007 Hamels had a 3.69 ERA after facing 543 batters. He had 129 K, 32 BB and 21 HR.

Those numbers aren’t dramatically different, but the results this year have been. That would point toward Hamels being a victim of some bad luck.

In 2007, foes were hitting .251 against Hamels while in 2008 it was .204. This year, it is .283. His line drive percentage for 2007 was 16, in 2008 it was 20 and in 2009 it is 19. So Hamels probably had a little bit of good luck last year in keeping the BA against low, but the 19 percent this season is not bad by comparison.

Hamels’ BABIP this season is .331. It was .270 for all of last year and it was .289 for all of 2007.

Bad luck might not explain all of Hamels’ woes this season. Obviously, other factors can contribute to batters getting more hits. But given that his three true outcomes mirror the past two seasons, bad luck might be part of it.

They might not be giants

Don't you wish Brian Sabean was in your fantasy league? Especially at the trade deadline? Sabean traded one of the Giants top pitching prospects in Tim Alderson for, at best, a slightly better than league average hitting 2B in Freddy Sanchez.

Sabean also gave up another highly regarded pitching prospect for Ryan Garko.

Remember Francisco Liriano, Joe Nathan and Boof Bonser for A.J. Pierzynski? How about that Barry Zito contract?

The Phillies should immediately offer Eric Bruntlett for Madison Bumgarner. And the Tigers should offer Ryan Raburn.

Seriously.

More on Lee trade

More than simply adding the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner, the Phillies added the talent at a very minimal cost. Philadelphia gave up pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Jason Knapp along with infielder Jason Donald and catcher Lou Marson. Sure, these were four of the Phils top-rated prospects, but that might be an indictment of their system rather than praise.

Carrasco is regarded as a good prospect, but hasn't been tearing it up in Triple-A. He has not pitched as poorly as his 5.18 ERA would suggest, but some have questioned whether he has the makeup to be a top starter.

Knapp is regarded as a very good prospect, but he's pretty much just out of high school and currently on the DL with a sore shoulder. Sure, he might turn into the next John Smoltz, but he was years from helping the Phils, who want to win now.

Donald is a decent prospect, but a man without a place in Philly, stuck behind Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley. He was perfect trade fodder. He, too, has struggled at Triple-A.

Marson is regarded as a decent hitter, less than great defensive catcher. It seems catching prospects rarely live up to expectations, so I'm always for trading them.

Now, factor in that the Phils also got OF Ben Francisco to add some bench depth, and this deal swings even more in the Fightins direction. Francisco is probably not much more than league average, but he's got a little pop. Plus, the Phils can keep Lee at a reasonable price for next season.

Real-Lee good move

Philadelphia added Cliff Lee to its starting rotation for 4 minor leaguers. The Phillies also got OF Ben Francisco, who will provide a right-handed bat off the bench.

Lee, whose middle name is Phifer, immediately becomes Philly's best starter. Using the Game Score method, Lee has tossed 7 "gems" this year in 22 starts (nearly 32 percent). He has 14 starts with scores of 55 or better. Teams last year won at a .683 clip when starters had scores of 50 or better; the Indians were 7-7 in Lee's 14 games of 55 or better. (The Phils are 32-12, .727, when getting a 55 or better.)

The Phillies have had 19 starts this season in 98 games that qualify as gems. Joe Blanton has 6, Cole Hamels 5, J.A. Happ 4, Jamie Moyer has 2, Chan Ho Park 1, Brett Myers 1. Park is now in the bullpen and Myers is on the DL. The Phils were 16-3 in those 19 gems.

Philadelphia has won in large part thanks to its offense. In the 25 worst starts by Phils' pitchers, the Fightins were 12-13. That's pretty remarkable. Last year, the Angels were 14-29 when their starters had a Game Score under 40. That record led MLB. The Phils are 14-16 in such games this season.

Lee has 3 complete games this season; Phillies starters have 2.

The only troubling component of Lee's game is he is not a groundball pitcher and over the past two seasons only 6 percent of his flyballs have turned into homers. That is a very low number, below the average of 10-11 percent. Pitching in the Zen might change that.

On the bright side, Philadelphia is a much better defensive team than Cleveland, which should benefit Lee.

Dead GM Walking

I wasn't all that upset with the manner in which the Mets fired Willie Randolph last June. The New York media was up in arms about the Mets flying Randolph across the country to fire him in the middle of the night and while I agreed that it wasn't the ideal way to deliver the news, I didn't dwell on it. The Mets had fired a bad manager and that was good enough for me. Improving the quality of baseball on the field was more important to me than the team's public relations strategies. Today that balance has shifted.

Obviously the Mets needed to fire Tony Bernazard. If various media reports are to believed, he acted in an extremely unprofessional manner on numerous occasions. Explaining as much to the New York media should have been the easiest thing in the world. But somehow Omar Minaya and the Mets managed to screw that up, too.

Minaya, either through an impromptu bad decision, or a poorly-conceived, Wilpon-approved plot, subtly questioned the motives of Daily News reporter Adam Rubin. Minaya apparently thought that he could insinuate that Rubin was out to get Bernazard fired and take his job and get away with it. The only conclusions that can be drawn from this are that either Minaya doesn't think before he speaks or he's terrible at predicting a media reaction. Given that recent events and the current state of the major league team already bring into question his talent evaluation skills, he's running low on job responsibilities that I could say he executes competently.

It's certainly possible that Minaya is merely a puppet of ownership in this incident. Even if he acted on his own, the whole Bernazard episode raises new questions about the Wilpons' ability to run this organization. I would not be at all upset if they decided in the near future to sell the team. But for now, I think the very least they can do is fire Minaya. He's assembled a bad team and now he's put himself squarely in the crosshairs of the local media. This is far too deep a hole for Minaya to dig himself out of. Now is as good a time as any to make a fresh start with this team with an eye toward next year.

Take two

Detroit swept the White Sox in today's double dip, giving the Tigers a 2-game cushion in the AL Central. Justin Verlander got the job done in the opener with a complete game and a bases-loaded walk by Clete Thomas in the eighth inning gave the Tigs a 4-3 victory in the nightcap.

Good news: Carlos Guillen is back. He was 2-for-3 with a solo HR in the second game.

Edwin Jackson faces Tiger killer Gavin Floyd on Saturday. Rick Porcello pitches for Detroit on Sunday.

Porcello has struggled lately. His ERA is 9.45 in his last 3 starts. His Game Scores are 23-29-32 in those outings. Foes have an OPS of 1.127 in those starts. He does not have a Game Score better than 46 in his last 5 starts. He has pitched 92 innings this year; he tossed 125 innings at Class A Lakeland last season.

The Tigers have tried to limit his workload (99 is the most pitches he's thrown in a game and he's been below 90 in 12 of 17 starts) so it might be too early to think Porcello is hitting the wall. Maybe it's just a slump. Maybe not.

Clunk!

Today, the Tigers lost 2-1 for the fourth time in their last five games. Meanwhile, the White Sox get a perfect game from Mark Buehrle to move into a first-place tie with Detroit.

Now the kitties get 4 games against Chicago.

Meanwhile, MLB.com had a report about Dontrelle Willis working out in Toledo. At this point, the Tigs might want to consider bringing back Willis for his bat. He had an OPS of .856 in 2007.

A vote for Pedro

The Phillies signed Pedro Martinez to a 1-year, $1-million deal, which to me seems like a low-risk, high-reward move (much like the Mets signing Gary Sheffield this season). The biggest questions are whether Pedro is healthy enough to start regularly and how long it will be before he's ready for action.

Last season, Martinez was 5-6 with a 5.61 ERA in 20 starts for the Mets. But he had a 9-game stretch in the middle of his year in which he posted a 3.48 ERA and struck out 42 in 51.2 IP. He was not very good in September, but it is likely because his arm was ailing.

A trip to Fangraphs.com reveals some interesting data. First, Pedro's fastball averaged 87.7 mph last year, which is not far from his 2005 average (88.0) when he went 15-8 with a 2.82 ERA and fanned 208 in 217 IP.

One problem he had in 2008 was he had a career-worst 1.98 K/BB ratio. His K/9 was a career-low 7.18 and his BB/9 of 3.63 was his worst since 1993 (when he was primarily a reliever).

Obviously, his chances of be successful drop if he doesn't have command. According to Fangraphs data, he used his fastball and changeup more than usual last season and barely used his slider. I would guess a sore shoulder might have reduced his ability to throw the slider; he used it 1.6% in 2008 compared to 12.3% in 2005. (It's also possible his sliders were reclassified as cutters, because his cutter percentage was an unusually high 7.3.)

Assuming the slider data is correct, it might hold the biggest key to Pedro being successful. If his arm is good, and he can throw his slider, he might be able to regain his form. Pedro is a smart pitcher at this point in his career, not unlikely Jamie Moyer. Even as Pedro's fastball diminished, he still got hitters out with regularity.

If anywhere near healthy, this might be interesting.

Then Along Came Jones

Adam Jones, the Orioles lone representative in last nights All-Star game, delivered the game winning RBI in the 8th inning with a sacrifice fly to right field scoring the Tigers Curtis Granderson from 3rd base.

At the break

The Tigers are 48-39 and hold a 3.5-game lead over the White Sox and 4-game lead over the Twins. With KC falling 11.5 back, it looks safe to call this a three-horse race for the title.

Detroit is averaging 4.8 runs while giving up 4.4. Chicago is averaging 4.6 runs and giving up 4.6. Minnesota is averaging 4.9 runs and allowing 4.5. Based on runs created and allowed, it would seem the Twins should be better than a game over .500, so that's a concern.

Another concern: The Twins have played 25 games against the AL East (going 6-19). The Tigers and White Sox both played only 14 games against the East (with Detroit going 4-10 and the Sox going 5-9). Detroit still has 22 games vs. the East, with 12 at home.

The Tigers are 27-13 at home.

One advantage for Detroit, the Twins have played 48 games at home (28-20) and they are only 17-24 on the road.

Detroit has 42 starts with Game Scores of 50 or better (going 34-8). The Tigers have 24 starts with Game Scores of 40 or worse (going 4-20).

Chicago has 48 starts with Game Scores of 50 or better (going 35-13). The Sox have 26 starts with Game Scores of 40 or worse (going 5-21).

Minnesota has 47 starts with Game Scores of 50 or better (going 34-13). The Twins have 26 starts with Game Scores of 40 or worse (going 5-21).

To break it down a bit more, Detroit pitchers have 25 starts with Game Scores of 65 or better ("gem" territory) while the White Sox have 26 and the Twins have 16.

This would seem to indicate that Detroit and Chicago will need to get solid pitching in the second half, or they might struggle. The Twins would appear to have a more consistent offense and with any improved pitching could be most dangerous.

Detroit has 3 regular starters and 5 relievers with ERA+ of 100 or better. Chicago has 5 regular starters and 5 relievers with ERA+ of 100 or better. Minnesota has 1 regular starter and 4 relievers with ERA+ of 100 or better.

The Tigers top of the rotation, with Justin Verlander and Edwin Jackson, is better than the White Sox, but Chicago has gotten good production throughout the rotation. The keys for the Tigers, other than hoping Verlander and Jackson continue to shine, will be how rookie Rick Porcello fares deeper in the season and whether Armando Garlarraga can pick up any slack.

Winning Ball for 30 Days

In 27 games over the past 30 days the Baltimore Orioles are 15-12, 9-6 vs. NL teams and 6-6 vs. AL teams.

Over the same time period, the team ERA is 9th in the AL at 4.24. O's pitching has issued the 6th fewest walks and 4th fewest HR during the stretch.

The offense was 5th in BA, Runs, Walks and Number of Pitches. They were 12th in HR and Slugging.

The leather was 10th in Fielding Pct and committed more errors than all but two AL teams.

So, what to make of a winning record over the course of 30 days? 15 of the 27 games against the NL East, who, as a division, spent the month of June in a funk, was a big help and is also where the 3 wins to the plus side came from.

However, winning 6 of 12 from AL teams, including 3 of 7 on a west coast trip made the last 30 days prior to the All-Star break look promising. The O's had a winning stretch in interleague play and followed it up with a break even stretch rather than a losing stretch.

The hitting and defense, although not performing poorly, has performed better in the past and it is not unreasonable to hope for better in the 2nd half. The bullpen has performed well thus far and for the first season in quite a few, they are not "cooked" already. The starting pitching has been competitive over the last month and here's hoping the youngsters continue to get hitters out.

A little rest over the All-Star break and onto July, August and September, where we find out if these O's really are Major Leaguers.