Fearless predictions

Over the next few days, Sparky will examine the first-half performances of players and predict whether they will improve or regress in the second half. First up are a couple of surprise hitters in the AL, Carlos Pena and Jack Cust.

Pena is batting .285/.393/.612 this year for Tampa Bay. He has 19 HR and 49 RBI. I don't think Pena will improve on his numbers, but I don't know that he'll fall off much, either. He always could hit the ball hard, and far. In 2004, he hit 27 HR and 19.3% of his flyballs went yard. In 2005, he hit 18 HR and 26.3% of his flyballs left the field. Those are both a pretty high percentage of flyballs turning into homers. This year, his percentage is 31.9. He probably will suffer some drop, but his track record indicates it's not a total fluke. He's improved his line drive percentage, which is good, and lowered his percentage of infield popups. His BABIP is .316, which isn't fluky high, either. If he continues to reduce his strikeouts, he should be able to maintain something close to his current pace. He is 29 and could be finding his prime, and has no pressure on him in Tampa Bay -- another plus.

On the other hand, I can't see Cust continue to put up gaudy numbers, even though he's proven in the minors he can hit for power. Cust is batting .280/.399/.607. He has 15 HR and 41 RBI. His percentage of flyballs that become homers this year is a remarkable 42.1 (A-Rod, as a point of comparison, is at 28.8). Cust's BABIP is .372, and note he is hitting five points lower than Pena in overall BA. He's only batting .279 with RISP and has 67 K in 168 AB. Entering this season, Cust's career percentage of plate appearances that ended with either a homer, a strikeout or a walk (the Three True Outcomes) was 47.8 combined in the minors and majors. When those flyballs stop leaving the building at the rate they've been going so far this year, Cust will probably return to earth with them.