Didn't See That Coming

The O's defeated the 1st place Twins 2-0 in Minnesota last night. Brad Bergeson tossed 6 2/3 and Will Ohman, Koji Uehara and Alfredo Simon retired the final 7 in order to preserve the shutout.

More please.

Off and on

The Tigers finally get a day off, and they apparently needed it after being swept in 3 by the Twins. This after a 5-game win streak that included a sweep of the Halos. So Detroit finished its 20-game stretch (with no off days and a West Coast swing) with a 10-10 record.

Detroit is 16-13 at this point, which is terrific given the state of the starting pitching. Dontrelle Willis -- yes, the D-Train -- leads the starters with a 3.99 ERA. Rick Porcello (ERA+ 57), Max Scherzer (67), Jeremy Bonderman (75) and Justin Verlander (96) have been below league average. Porcello and Scherzer have been ridiculously hittable, both allowing OPS around .925, but might be victims of some bad luck with BABIPs of .398 and .340, respectively.

The Tigers' starters rank worst in the AL in quality starts, Game Score and innings per start.

Detroit is 8-7 when allowing 4 to 8 runs. The MLB win percentage is .318 when allowing 4 to 8 runs. The Tigers are 11-2 when scoring 5 or more runs (and 8-0 when scoring 6 or more).

The Tigers' .794 OPS is fourth best in the AL, even with Gerald Laird (whose .486 OPS is nearly identical to Justin Morneau's on-base percentage). Detroit's .326 BABIP, probably distorted a bit because of Austin Jackson's insane number, is the best in the AL.

It would seem the Tigers' bats would be in danger of cooling at some point. It also would seem likely (hopefully) the starting pitching improves. If those two things happen, chances are that Detroit is pretty much, record wise, what they are right now.

All-time Tiger

Ridiculous, thy name is Austin Jackson

We were right, Austin Jackson could not continue with a .491 BABIP.

He's now at .532. That's nearly a hundred points higher than No. 2 David Freese.

In 26 games, the rookie has 43 hits and is batting .377/.427/.526. He's got 8 doubles, 3 triples and a homer. He's got 22 runs. He has 8 multi-hit games in his last 10, including a 5-for-5 and two 3-hit days. He's 22 for his last 44 and has an OPS of 1.236 during that span.

How long can this keep going on?

No doubt at this point in the year, Detroit is loving Jackson and Phil Coke, who came from the Yankees in the Curtis Granderson-Edwin Jackson deal that included Arizona.

Coke is merely 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA in 13 games out of the pen.

Howard's deal

There's been much talk over the past week about Ryan Howard's contract extension. Only time will tell if it was a good or bad deal. Howard fans point to his HR and RBI totals as proof he's a great player worthy of his contract. No doubt, Howard is a terrific power hitter, particularly against RHP, which he kills.

But he is fairly one dimensional now, with nearly all his value tied to the long ball. If that skill erodes prior to the age 35, as has been the case with sluggers of Howard's type, the Phils will be in trouble.

I'm not going to suggest Howard is not a worthwhile player. But basing value on HR and RBI alone can be misleading.

Consider this player: He led the league in RBIs only once in his career and had seasons in his prime in which he drove in "only" 83, 106, 110, 90, 101 runs. He never surpassed 137. Hard to say, though, that the player -- Barry Bonds -- wasn't the most feared or best hitting in the game during that time.

There's also been a lot of comparisons drawn between Howard and Pujols. Last year, Howard hit 45 HR and had 141 RBI. Pujols hit 47 HR and had 135 RBI.

Pujols had 10 whiffs and 5 GDP with RISP. Howard had 63 Ks and 6 GDP. Pujols had 189 PAs with RISP and drove in 83 runs. He batted .405 with men on 1st and 2nd, .571 with men on 2nd and 3rd (with 10 IBB in 20 PAs) and .588 with the bases loaded. He drove in 105 runs in 346 PAs with men on base (and totaled 82 BB, with 43 IBB and 6 HBP).

Howard had 216 PAs with RISP and drove in 96 runs. He batted .259 with men on 1st and 2nd, .364 with men on 2nd and 3rd (with 1 IBB in 15 PAs) and .278 with the bases loaded. He drove in 120 runs in 354 PAs with men on base (and totaled 43 BB, with 8 IBB and 4 HBP).

If you subtract BBs and HBP from their PAs with RISP, Pujols collected .654 RBI/PA while Howard was .527 RBI/PA. Prince Fielder, for the record, was at .578 RBI/PA.

Smug Satisfaction

Baltimore swept a 3 game series from Boston over the weekend. It is the first O's series sweep of Boston in Baltimore since 1974.

And with Julio Lugo sitting on the Orioles bench:-)

Due for turnarounds?

Players with BABIPs below .240, but line drive rates above 20%:

Travis Snider .133/23.4
A.J. Pierzynski .182/24.1
Nick Johnson .200/25.0
Jhonny Peralta .220/23.5
Jeff Clement .225/20.9
Luke Scott .239/20.8

All Time Firsts, Again

Cla Meredith and Alfredo Simon recorded their first career Major League saves in back to back games this past Sunday and Tuesday, respectively.

The last time two Orioles recorded their first career saves in back to back games was May 7th and 8th, 1977 by Mike Flanagan and Scott McGregor.

Uh-O's

Some numbers on the O's:

Baltimore has scored 3 or fewer runs 13 times this season. The Orioles have allowed 3 or fewer runs 3 times. (In fact, they've allowed 3 runs 3 times and not had a game in which they allowed 0, 1 or 2).

The O's have allowed an average of 1.03 runs in the 9th. They've allowed 0.65 runs in the 8th.

According to baseball-reference.com, the MLB average for runs allowed in the 9th is 0.49. For the 8th, it's 0.48.

Baltimore has lost 4 games in which it led or was tied going into the 9th. The MLB win percentage when ahead entering the 9th is .931.

Jackson hole

Austin Jackson is off to a solid start for the Tigers. He is batting .314/.379/.453 and his .832 OPS is 24% better than average. He has 1 HR, 6 RBI, 3 SB and 14 R in 20 games. He also is playing well defensively in center field.

Now, the trouble spot. His BABIP is a league-high .491. Franklin Gutierrez is second at .422. It is obvious Jackson cannot sustain this type of success. And he needs to sustain it because he also has a league-high 32 whiffs (in just 95 PAs). More than half his outs are Ks.

Once those balls stop dropping for hits, this low contact rate will severely impact his stats. Consider this: The BABIP leaders from Gutierrez through No. 10 Joe Mauer (covering a range of .422 to .373) all have batting averages between .320 and .389. In the case of Mauer, as an example, Jackson is batting more than a hundred points higher in BABIP yet batting 42 points lower in actual average.

Jackson's BABIP is not completely fluky, though. His line drive percentage is nearly 35, which is third-highest in MLB. And his K% is actually only fourth-worst in MLB (and a tick better than all-world Jason Heyward).

AL Beast?

The Baltimore Orioles have twice as many victories over AL East opponents as they do over the rest of the AL.

No holidays for Halliday

Roy Halliday got beat last night by the Giants. Heard some concern about his workload thus far, with two complete games and his MLB-leading 40 IP in 5 starts. So I looked back to see if this alone was cause for pause.

Last year, Halliday threw 36 innings in his first 5 starts, so he's not far off that mark. In 2008, Halliday really hit the ground running. He had 41 IP in 5 starts and tossed 4 CGs in his first 6 outings of the campaign. In 2007, he had 2 CGs in April and went 10 innings in his third start of the year. He threw 38.1 IP in his first 5 starts.

Even his 5 ER last night in SF should not be viewed as trouble. Halliday gave up 5 ERs twice in his first 4 starts in 2009.

Verlander's pitch counts

Justin Verlander threw 125 pitches last night to get through 5 innings. He's pitched more than 5 innings in only one of four starts this season. And his pitch count seems something of a mystery.

Here are the facts:

Verlander is tied with Rich Harden for the lead among qualified AL pitchers with 4.36 pitches per plate appearance. Yet Verlander's strike percentage (69%) is No. 2 in the AL behind only Scott Baker, who goes 3.71 pitches per plate appearance. In fact, among the top 19 pitchers in the category, Verlander is the only one averaging more than 4 pitches/PA.

First-strike percentage? Verlander (67%) is No. 3 in the AL. Among the top 21 in that category, Verlander is one of two pitchers to average more than 4.01 pitches/PA.

Verlander is tied for No. 2 in percentage of pitches swung at (50%). He is tied for 29th in contact percentage (82%). He is 33rd in swinging strikes (13%).

Yet, Verlander's BB/9 is the second worst of his career so far this season (3.68). The only other time his BB/9 was over 3 for a season was 2008 when he was 11-17 with a 4.84 ERA. Otherwise, he's 54-24 with a 3.57 ERA.

Also, Verlander has gone 0-2 on 34 of 95 PAs. That's 36% while the AL average is 22. He's thrown 23 strikes on 0-2, but has only 5 three-pitch Ks. He's given up two hits on 0-2.

I have to contemplate what these numbers mean. I guess batters simply are waiting out Verlander.

They might be Giants

Or they might not be.

While perusing the press notes available for each team on MLB.com, I came across a few interesting tidbits on the SF Giants.

* The Giants have spent 16 days in first place this season. Over the previous three years, they spent a total of 3 days.

* On Tuesday, San Fran lost for the first time in 24 games (since 1958) when limiting an opponent to 1 hit.

* Since 1900, the Giants have lost three games in which they limited their foe to 1 hit. The first was in 1906 and the second was in 1917.

* The Giants lost three consecutive games (April 18-20) in which they didn't allow a hit with runners in scoring position. San Fran went 1-for-25 with RISP and lost 2-1, 3-2 and 1-0.

Amazin'

All of the teams in the NL East are above .500. Oh, wait. I mean all but one.

Respite

The O's get a much needed day off today (needed for me, anyway) before starting Boston's turnaround tomorrow in Fenway Park.

While the pitching is much improved over last year, the snakebitten O's have 4 blown saves, the closer they traded for in the offseason is on the DL and their best pitcher from 2009 has been demoted to AAA Norfolk.

The defense started well, committing one error in the first 7 games, however, they've committed 9 more in the last 9 games.

The offense is horrible. With no sign of improvement. Leadoff hitter Brian Roberts is on the DL. Felix Pie replaced Roberts at the top of the lineup and hit .400 til he went on the DL. No one is hitting. No one advances runners. No one can bunt. No one takes pitches. Everyone makes outs. Quickly. The O's offense is painful to watch, but at least it's over quickly.

Momentum is the next day's starting pitcher

More fun with Game Scores!

The three AL teams with Game Score averages of 55 or better are Tampa Bay, Toronto and NY. They are a combined 29-13 (.690).

Of the nine teams with Game Score averages of 50 or better, seven have winning records. The nine teams are a combined 75-52 (.591).

Of the five teams with Game Score averages of 49 or worse, none have winning records. (The Tigers are .500.) The five teams are a combined 24-47 (.338).

Maddening

Ryan Madson blew another save last night. He is now in his career 4-8 with 18 saves (in 38 save opps) and a 4.51 ERA in save situations and 25-13 with a 2.66 ERA in non-save spots.

His BABIP in save/non-save situations is .324/.289 and he has allowed 17 HR in 141.2 save situation innings and 22 HR in 290.2 non-save situation innings. He has a 4.55 ERA in the 9th inning and his OPS+ in the 9th is 13% worse than average. His OPS+ in the 8th is 19% better than average. His K/BB ratio in the 9th is 2.60 and in the 8th is 3.33.

The fact he seems more hittable in save situations/9th innings leads one to believe it's a matter of his approach in those situations. According to Fangraphs data, Madson gets a much higher percentage of swings at pitches outside the strike zone than average and gets more swings and misses than average. He also gets more swings at pitches inside the strike zone and tends to throw a higher percentage of pitches in the strike zone than average. This might sound odd, but maybe he throws too many pitches for strikes? Or too many hittable pitches for strikes.

Start and stop

The Tigers are now 7-6 and the bats have gone cold. This is not good news for the starting pitching. Last night, Dontrelle Willis had a good outing, but lost 2-0. Of course, the bats bailed out the pitchers during the first week of the season, so it evens out I suppose.

Detroit's starters have put together three decent starts in a row for the first time this season, which is good. But they haven't been great starts. So far in 13 games, the starters have posted a Game Score of 60+ just twice. Six starts have been below 45. Remarkably, the Tigs are 3-3 in those six outings, but it's unlikely you can play .500 ball that way over time.

Also, the Tigers' starters have pitched only 62 percent of the staff's total innings. Oakland, which leads the AL in ERA, has got 67 percent from its starters. Texas, which is second in ERA, has gotten 66 percent. Tampa Bay, which is third in ERA, is at 69 percent.

The Tigers' 5.5 IP per start is the lowest in the AL. They are second to Boston for fewest quality starts and tied with Baltimore for second-worst Game Score average, again behind Boston.

Oh no-no!

I had to travel to Atlanta for business last weekend. I went to the Rockies-Braves game Friday night, which Atlanta won 9-5 in a crisp 3 hours, 17 minutes before an announced crowd of 27,692. I had to work Saturday. So, I missed a no-hitter Saturday night despite being only 10 miles away from the stadium. At some point soon, though, I plan to put up a video of my tour around Turner Field. It's a nice ballpark. And not very crowded.

The game started when?

Baseball is a 9 inning game unless you're the Tigers. Then 5 is enough. Detroit has scored 37 runs from the 5th through 9th frames. That's an average of 4.62 runs an outing. That's higher than the AL average of 4.4 runs for an entire game, and better or equal to the output of nine other AL squads per entire contest. The 37 runs for the Tigs represent 80 percent of their total runs. Detroit's OPS for innings 7-9 is 1.063. The OPS vs. foes' relievers is 1.006.

This could mean several things: 1) The Tigers are not good against quality starting pitching; 2) The Tigers have a potent offense that can explode at any time; 3) The KC and Cleveland bullpens stink.

Chances are it is some combination of the above. The next several weeks will provide more answers, or more questions. Either way, we'll be watching.

Nostalgus Interruptis

My nephew took me to the O's game last night for Matt Wieters T-shirt night. Brian Matusz took the hill for Baltimore and for 7 1/3 innings he was masterful, twirling a 2 hitter (both were bunt singles), striking out 8 and generally mystifying Rays hitters.

I even went so far as to advise my nephew to appreciate the pitching performance he was witnessing and remarked on how I use to see this kind of thing twice a week back in the McGregor/Flanagan days.

But, with one out in the 8th, the Rays abruptly solved the rookie and strung together 4 consecutive hits, 3 of them on first pitches, plating one run and loading the bases. Two more hits off of Orioles relief pitching turned a 3-0 O's lead into a 5-3 deficit. The O's eventually lost 8-6 in 10 innings.

Oh well, at least I got to see Julio Lugo on the O's bench:-)

Swing batter

The Rangers lead the AL in swinging at pitches, offering at 48.5% while the Blue Jays are second at 46.9. Texas also leads in swinging at pitches outside the strike zone, at 30.5 percent. The Jays, by comparison, are at 27.1, which is 8th. The Yankees and Tigers have swung at the fewest pitches outside the strike zone. The Yankees and Tigers are 1st and 3rd, respectively, in contact percentage. The Rangers are worst.

The Yankees, Blue Jays and Tigers have the best walk rates. The Jays have the worst strikeout rate; the Rangers are sixth.

Texas is eighth in runs. The Tigers are second and Yankees are fourth. The Jays are fifth. The Blue Jays are doing it with power (1st in HR and ISO) while the Tigers are doing it by getting on base (1st in OBP).

Special start

The Tigers are off to their best start since 2006, when they went to the World Series. Even though it is very early, it's hard not to look at the first week and feel like this could be the start of a special season. Granted, Detroit went 5-1 against KC and Cleveland -- not the toughest competition around. But it's the way the Tigs have gone about their biz that gives one hope.

A look at some odds and ends.

Detroit has scored 35 runs this year, with 30 coming from the fifth inning on (and 20 from the seventh inning on). And this with Johnny Damon not hitting.

Magglio and Miguel are raking. The reborn M&M Boys.

The Tigers got good starts from Dontrelle Willis and Jeremy Bonderman. Even two less-than-stellar starts from Justin Verlander resulted in victories, including yesterday's wild 9-8 triumph. The bullpen has been solid, posting a 2.35 ERA.

Detroit took advantage of errors and failures by their foes. Meanwhile, the Tigers turned 10 double plays and commited only two errors.

Walking away happy

Dontrelle Willis is unbeaten in games in which he walks the first batter on four pitches.

The Tigers salvaged a 2-1 start to the campaign in KC thanks to Johnny Damon beginning the eighth inning with a walk after he should've been called out on strikes, Magglio Ordonez reaching on an error and Miguel Cabrera going yard. Take what they give ya.

Detroit has scored 17 runs in 3 games. Only 1 of those runs crossed the plate prior to the sixth inning.

Orioles Go to the Matusz

The Orioles notched their first victory of the season by a score of 5-4 last night in Tampa Bay. Rookie Brian Matusz got the win in a 5 inning effort. Going back to last season, it is Matusz' 4th win in his last 4 starts.

Young, but old

According to STATS, the Tigers have MLB's youngest rotation: Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Dontrelle Willis, Rick Porcello and Jeremy Bonderman. The average age is 25.6. In spite of the youthful appearance, the group has combined for 565 games in the bigs.

To the nines

Detroit tied last night's game against KC with Miguel Cabrera's HR in the top of the ninth, took a 2-1 lead in the top of the 11th and then lost 3-2. Last year, the Tigers won 6 games when they trailed entering the ninth inning and their .080 win percentage in those situations was nearly double the MLB average.

Blazing Burrell

Pat Burrell scored from second on a single to left last night. Not the type of thing you expect to see from a plodder like Burrell (who ran through the third-base coach's stop sign). It looked like Matt Wieters could have made a play, but was unable to corral the throw and make the tag. This is forgivable, figuring Wieters was either caught by surprise and/or laughing.

But it seems Burrell is more likely to gamble on the bases when he's on second. Last year, he went from second to home on singles 3 times in 9 chances (and was never thrown out). He went from first to third on singles just 4 times in 21 opportunities. In 2008, he scored from second on a single on 8 of 13 chances (never out again) while going first to third only 2 times in 23 chances.

So beware when Burrell is on second.

P U

Chris Young pitched the Padres to victory last night while teammate Will Venable homered. Princeton boys. Go figure. Young was the first person to be named first-team All-Ivy League in both baseball and basketball. Venable was the second.

HR in first AB

Jason Heyward homered in his first career AB yesterday for the Braves. A sure sign of greatness? Perhaps not. Of the 104 players to homer in their first trip to the plate, only Gary Gaetti and Carlos Lee hit more than 300 lifetime. Only four others -- Jermaine Dye, Will Clark, Tim Wallach and Earl Averill -- surpassed 200. Interestingly, 3 of the last 4 St. Louis Cardinals to do it were pitchers: Mark Worrell in 2008, Adam Wainwright in 2006 and Gene Stechschulte in 2001. Other pitchers I noticed on the list were Guillermo Mota, Dustin Hermanson, Dave Eiland, Jose Sosa, John Montefusco, Hoyt Wilhelm, Dan Bankhead, and Don Rose. I think only Averill and Wilhelm are in the Hall of Fame.

Golly Polly

Placido Polanco did something yesterday that had not been accomplished since Calvin Pickering pulled it off in 2004. And believe it or not, it was a good accomplishment. Read all about Polanco and the Phils, from Jayson Stark.

Go fourth

The Tigers outlasted Zack Greinke and took advantage of KC's bullpen for an 8-4 win yesterday. Many bright spots for Detroit, from Scott Sizemore to Austin Jackson to Johnny Damon to Joel Zumaya. Also nice to see the Tigs win a game when giving up 4 runs. Last year, Detroit was 4-7 in such games (a .364 win percentage; the MLB average was .477). If the Tigers went 5-6 a year ago, they would have been in the playoffs.

Grandy goes yard

Curtis Granderson started the Yankees stage of his career with a home run last night in Boston. This might be a surprise because Granderson came into the game with a .143 BA and 8 Ks in 14 PAs against Red Sox starter Josh Beckett.

But the homer should not have been a surprise because Granderson loves the first week of April and/or not wasting time to get his first dinger.

Last year, in the Tigers' first game of the season, Granderson went yard vs. Roy Halladay. In both 2007 and 2006, he homered in Detroit's second game of the campaign. In 2008, Granderson was hurt at the beginning of the season and didn't make his debut until April 23. He homered on April 24. In 2005, Granderson got called up from the minors on July 22. He homered on July 23.

So excluding the 9 games Granderson played in the bigs in 2004, he has never gone more than two games without a homer to begin his season.

Day and night

The Tigers start the season in KC and it is no easy task in Monday's opener. Detroit faces reigning Cy Young Award winner Zack Greinke. Of course, the Tigs send Justin Verlander, who was third in the Cy Young vote, to the mound. As Royals skipper Trey Hillman said, "I'm sure that the national media will be focused on other games than the Kansas City Royals and the Detroit Tigers, but I'm not sure you can come up with any better Opening Day matchup than Greinke versus Verlander. It's going to be exciting."

Greinke was 3-1 with an ERA of 1.00 last year against Detroit. He is 11-5 in his career against the Tigers.

Verlander faced KC three times and limited the Royals to a .597 OPS. He was 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA. Lifetime he is 9-2 with a 2.32 ERA vs. KC.

Here was something I thought was odd: Verlander was 8-3 with a 2.23 ERA in day games last year, compared to 11-6 with a 4.22 ERA in night games. His BABIP in day games was .251 and at night was .366. That's a big difference, so he was a little lucky in daytime and unlucky at night, perhaps? In his career, he is 25-11 with a 3.28 ERA in daylight and 40-32 with a 4.26 ERA under the lights. The BABIP split is .270/.316. Wonder if it has something to do with shadows, even though his strikeout rate is a little lower in the daytime.

Greinke's ERA last year was 3.39 in day games and 1.74 at night. His strikeout and walk rates were virtually identical in each. The example for Greinke is a small sample. Verlander, though, seems to have had this odd split throughout his career.

Mike Cuellar passes away

I was too young to appreciate Mike Cuellar in his prime, but I loved having him on my APBA team.

April show-ers

The Tigers have got to show up strong in April. Detroit opens the season with 9 games total against KC and Cleveland (6 at Comerica) before going on an 11-game, 11-day road trip to Seattle, Los Angeles and Texas. Then the Tigs return home for 3 against Minnesota and 3 against the Angeles (that spill into May). Then it's 3 at the Twins.

So, after getting two days off in their first 9 games, Detroit plays 20 straight days, with 14 on the road. The Tigers then get an off day and then go 17 in a row against Cleveland, the Yankees, Boston, White Sox, Oakland and Dodgers. Cleveland, Oakland and LA are on the road.

The Tigers have got to take advantage of KC and Cleveland right off the bat. After those 9 games, Detroit does not play a team with a 2009 losing record until seeing Cleveland again on May 7. In fact, of the Tigs' next 39 games after the KC-Cleveland opening stretch, 32 are against teams with winning records from last year.

If Detroit fails to start quickly, it could -- as Yogi observed -- get late early.

Tigers on the mound

There is no doubt pitching is the area that could most impact Detroit, either positively or negatively. The Tigers had 12 pitchers make starts last season. Of that group, only two -- Justin Verlander and Rick Porcello -- remain that made more than seven. In fact, only 5 of the 12 remain on the roster. Edwin Jackson, Armando Galarraga, Jarrod Washburn, Luke French, Alfredo Figaro and Nate Robertson are gone and Zach Miner is injured.

Verlander was 19-9 last year and posted a 3.45 ERA. According to the Bill James Gold Mine, Verlander threw 300 more pitches than any other MLB pitcher last season and more than any AL pitcher in the last 10 years. Verlander has always been a workhorse. Hopefully it doesn't start to catch up to him.

Porcello was 14-9 with a 3.96 ERA. The Tigers need him to repeat that performance. He will need to improve his strikeout rate a bit (4.69/9) and he benefited a little from a .281 BABIP last season. He was helped by a 54% groundball rate and hurt by a 14% FB/HR rate.

Max Scherzer was acquired for Edwin Jackson. Scherzer might not put up the same numbers as Jackson last year (13-9, 3.62 ERA), but he could. He was 9-11 with a 4.12 ERA for Arizona, but goes to a better pitchers' park and will be backed by a slightly better defense. Expect to see his .323 BABIP drop. Put up a 9.19 K/9 last year.

Here's where it gets dicey. Jeremy Bonderman, who made one start last year, and Dontrelle Willis, who made seven largely unsuccessful starts, complete the rotation. Bonderman has made just 13 starts since 2007, when he was 11-9 with a 5.01 ERA. Willis has one win and an 8.27 ERA in his two seasons (14 starts) with the Tigers.

Given that Porcello and Scherzer are still young, and Bonderman and Willis have not been effective for at least two years, this could be interesting or ugly. If there's a bright spot, it's the fact Bonderman and Willis will be filling spots that were unproductive last season, so they won't have to be great to make an improvement. Of course, they'll still need to be better than they've been. We'll try to forget they're making $22.5 million between them.

Fernando Rodney is gone as the closer. Jose Valverde takes over. This is probably an upgrade, but relievers are tough to figure. There should be depth in the pen with Ryan Perry and a healthy Joel Zumaya. Eddie Bonine is working on his knuckleball and will work in long relief and can be a spot starter. Fu-Ti Ni and Phil Coke will handle the lefties.

My new favorite Oriole

Julio Lugo is the newest Oriole. He's owed 9 million dollars for this season. And the Red Sox have to pay all of it. $9M of Red Sox money will, most days, be sitting on the Orioles bench. I love this guy!

Tigers at the plate

The Tigers have finalized their 25-man roster, with utilityman Don Kelly getting the final spot over outfielder Clete Thomas. Here is a brief look at the offense, by position.

C-Gerald Laird gets the bulk of the work thanks to his defense. He threw out 42% of opposing baserunners last season, which help makes up for his lack of offense. We documented how he tends to collapse with increased work, so he will need to be more consistent. His OPS+ was 64 last year. The backup is youngster Alex Avila, who showed good pop last season, with an OPS of .965 in 72 PAs. He threw out 4 of 15 baserunners, a decent 27%. Avila bats from the left side, Laird from the right, so some type of platoon might develop.

1B-Miguel Cabrera. He has posted OPS of .887 in 2008 and .942 in 2009 and both seem disappointing, which speaks to his potential greatness. In 2008, he needed time to adjust to his new surroundings. In 2009, a drunken final weekend spoiled what might have been an MVP-worthy campaign. Sober and happy this year, Cabrera could flirt with the Triple Crown if he gets some help from healthy Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Guillen and Brandon Inge. Don Kelly is the backup.

2B-Scott Sizemore steps in for Placido Polanco, but will hit toward the bottom of the lineup rather than the No. 2 spot Polanco held. There were rumors (denied) that the Tigers were seeking an upgrade at second when they traded Nate Robertson. Sizemore is returning from a broken ankle suffered in the Arizona Fall League, but has hit well at every level. Expect early struggles, but improved production as the season goes on. Ramon Santiago is the backup. The Tigers like Santiago's glove, which depending on the ratings looks like it is somewhere between average to good, but his bat is lacking (82 OPS+ in 2009). I'd rather they kept Thomas and let Ryan Raburn or Kelly handle the backup duties at 2B and SS.

SS-Adam Everett is here. If being a constantly good hitter is admirable, so then might be being a consistently bad hitter. If this is so, Everett is the Pujols of the putrid. His OPS+ over the past four seasons, starting with 2006, are 64, 55, 62, 59. If nothing else, he should be admired for his ability to remain in the big leagues. His glove keeps him around, but there are concerns it is slipping to the point of no longer equalizing his value.

3B-Brandon Inge played 161 games last year on bad knees and his offense and defense suffered as the season progressed. His OPS+ was 132 in the first half and 45 in the second. It is not likely Inge will play a whole season at his 2009 first-half rate, but if healthy there is no reason not to expect him to be league average with the stick. He has a lifetime OPS of .743 as a third baseman and .590 as a catcher. With his defense, league-average batting is perfectly fine.

LF-Johnny Damon posted an OPS+ of 126 last year with the Yankees. Even if you want to discount his Yankee Stadium-based power surge in 2009, Damon has posted OPS+ average of 114 over the last six seasons. The Tigers' left fielders were OPS+ 97 last year, 94 in 2008 and 67 in 2007, so this is an unquestionable upgrade at the plate. Defensively, the ratings are inconsistent, but taken as a whole would make him around neutral.

CF-Austin Jackson was received from the Yankees (along with LHP Phil Coke) in return for Curtis Granderson. No one expects Jackson to possess Grandy's power, at least not at this point in his career, but they do figure he can play All-Star caliber defense. He has hit a ton this spring, going .356/.441/.576. It would be unreasonable to expect that type of performance to continue when it counts, but his 9 BBs to 8 Ks is a nice sign, as well as his 4 doubles and 3 triples -- which might indicate gap power that could play well in Comerica.

RF-Magglio Ordonez struggled much of last season and then finished with a flourish. His OPS the first half was .673 and for the second it was .978. He is batting .356 and slugging .556 in spring training, which is a good sign. A full productive season from Maggs might be the most important factor in getting this offense going. With the exception of ...

DH-Carlos Guillen, who saw his OPS+ in 2009 fall below league average for the first time since 2002. Guillen's five previous seasons in Detroit produced an average OPS+ of 127. He has not hit well this spring, batting .222/.295/.352. Age and injuries could be catching up with Guillen. His career OPS as a DH is only .711, which does not bode well, either. Guillen is penciled into the No. 5 spot in the order, but if Inge and Sizemore both hit and Guillen does not, it would not be inconceivable to see Guillen drop. But Jim Leyland does not seem the type to make such moves hastily with veteran players.

Line 'em up

I know there have been many studies done about the effect of batting orders on success, and many suggest a batting order itself has little impact on wins and losses. That math is far beyond me, but I figured I could look at this in more simple terms. Following is the Tigers' most frequently used lineup in 2009 and the number of times each player led off an inning, in actual numbers and as a percentage of their total plate appearances.

1. Curtis Granderson: 264 (37%)
2. Placido Polanco: 123 (18%)
3. Magglio Ordonez: 89 (17%)
4. Miguel Cabrera: 159 (23%)
5. Carlos Guillen: 73 (23%)
6/7. Brandon Inge: 131 (21%)
8. Gerald Laird: 133 (28%)
9. Adam Everett: 78 (20%)

Granderson, who did not bat No. 1 exclusively, had 130 PAs leading off the game and 134 otherwise as an inning's first batter. The players above represented 72% of Detroit's inning-leadoff PAs.

If nothing else, I think this shows the importance of leadoff hitters is often over-rated because aside from their first PA of the game, they might not lead off an inning with any more frequency than anyone else. Batting order would seem to matter most because players at the top get more PAs over the course of the season than players at the bottom. (No. 1 usually gets about 150 more than No. 9). But simply having a lineup of good hitters is much more important than where they bat in the lineup.

Wait til next year

AccuScore's AL playoff projections give the Tigers a 22% chance to make the postseason while the Orioles are given about half a percent.

Rolling the dice

The Tigers have traded LHP Nate Robertson, along with cash, to the Florida Marlins for a minor league pitcher. That means Dontrelle Willis will get the No. 5 spot in the rotation. D-Train went out today against the Orioles and pitched 4.1 innings and gave up 7 hits, 4 walks and 5 runs.

Spring Forecast

It looks like a stormy April on the horizon for the Baltimore Orioles. Of the 22 games on the schedule, 16 are in the AL East with 13 of those against the Rays, Red Sox and Yankees against whom the O's were 16-39 last season. Those 16 games are sandwiched around a 6 game west coast road trip where the O's have long been poor performers.

Although not officially announced, the starting rotation appears to be set. Kevin Millwood, Jeremy Guthrie, Brian Matusz, Brad Bergesen and David Hernandez.

Millwood has had the worst spring of the group by far. Given his track record, though, he gets a pass and is reasonably expected to be ready to pitch on Opening Day.

Guthrie has also had a bad spring. He looks just like he did last season, walking batters and then giving up the home run. I expect another long season for him and suspect he may be ruined (mentally) for Baltimore. O's management has always had more patience than I in these situations, and I hope it pays off this time.

Matusz (rookie), Bergesen (sophomore) and Hernandez (sophomore) have had solid springs. While this is a bright spot, it is unreasonable to expect the youngsters to carry the load, but that is what will be needed for the Orioles to weather the month of April with their heads above water.

In the bullpen, Koji Uehara will most likely start the season on the DL with a bad hamstring (the same problem that put him on the shelf in 2009). Nagging hamstring problems at his age may mean he won't pitch again. This is a significant loss because of the flexibility a healthy Uehara could have provided to the bullpen in terms of long relief, short relief, closing and spot starting.

Kam Mickolio impressed last September and was expected to be in the bullpen in 2010. He's hurt and will likely not make the team.

In the field, Brian Roberts missed most of the spring with a herniated disk. He's been in the lineup the last several days and appears to be healthy.

Nolan Reimold (expected to be the starting left fielder) is nursing a sore achilles heel from offseason surgery. He started the spring o for 21 at the plate and limping. His bat has heated up lately with 5 multi-hit games and no noticeable limp. There remains some question as to whether he's strong enough to play every day. Felix Pie will likely be the Opening Day starter in left.

Other than that, the O's are healthy. Adam Jones (CF), Nick Markakis (RF) and Luke Scott (DH) have posted solid springs and appear ready to play. Miguel Tejada (3B), Garrett Atkins (1B) and Cesar Izturis (SS) are veterans, healthy and can reasonably be expected to deliver their standard performances once it counts.

Lineup set

Jim Leyland announced the Tigers' lineup, and there were not many surprises. It'll be 1. Austin Jackson, 2. Johnny Damon, 3. Miguel Cabrera, 4. Magglio Ordonez, 5. Carlos Guillen, 6. Brandon Inge, 7. Gerald Laird, 8. Scott Sizemore, 9. Adam Everett. Leyland said the only possible change on Opening Day could be flipping Laird and Sizemore.

Meanwhile, there is talk that Detroit is going to make Dontrelle Willis the No. 5 starter and is shopping Nate Robertson. I'm sure the Tigers would like to unload one of the pitchers, particularly their contracts.

Plate Phillers

I was looking at Jimmy Rollins' stats, particularly his plate appearances, and came across the realization that of the top four PA seasons in history, three belong to Phillies: Rollins with 778 PAs in 2007, Lenny Dykstra with 773 in 1993 and Dave Cash with 766 in 1975. The other belongs to Cincy's Pete Rose, with 770 in 1974. Rose, of course, later played with the Phillies.

Special order

If the Phillies constructed a batting order based on on-base percentage, it would look like this: Utley, Werth, Howard, Victorino, Ruiz, Ibanez, Polanco, Rollins, pitcher. I think I would like to see a week of this. It also is a very balanced lineup going L-R-L-S-R-L-R-S. Of course, it will never happen, in large part because Rollins would never go for it. But I think even though it appears unorthodox, it makes a good deal of sense. I'd say you could move Ibanez up to the No. 4 spot based on slugging and drop Victorino and Ruiz down a notch, but I think I like Victorino at 4 and Ibanez giving that extra pop down lower.

I tried to come up with a OBP lineup for the Tigers, but cannot because it's hard to gauge what they're going to get from Austin Jackson and Scott Sizemore. Based on their minor league stats, I guess the lineup would be: Sizemore, Johnny Damon, Miguel Cabrera, Magglio Ordonez, Jackson, Carlos Guillen, Brandon Inge, Gerald Laird and Adam Everett. Cabrera has the best OBP, but needs to hit 3 because of his slugging. This probably is not far off from what Leyland might send out there, except with Jackson batting leadoff because of his speed and Sizemore dropping down to hit behind Guillen.

Everything is rosy

After reading Lynn Henning's column today, I say the Tigers are a lock for the AL Central title and trip to the postseason.

Glad to see Max Scherzer coming around. I loved the trade to get him. I think he pitched better than his stats last season (.323 BABIP) and strikes out a batter an inning. He should only get better when he masters his control. The Tigers are a slightly better defensive team than the D-backs and he goes to more of a pitcher's park.

Mr. Robertson

Nate Robertson has pitched well this spring as he tries to reclaim a role in the Tigers' rotation. Will it last? Who knows? His slider is reportedly snapping. In 14.2 IP, Robertson has allowed 13 hits and 6 walks while striking out 14. The whiffs are encouraging.

In 2006, Robertson went 13-13 with a 3.84 ERA. He's never reached that level again. His K/BB ratio has dropped and his BABIP the last two years has been right around .343. His groundball and popup rates have also suffered. He has struggled with injuries (back, elbow, groin).

Now, back to the slider. Robertson threw his slider 23% of the time in 2006. The last two years he threw his slider 25% and 27.5% of the time. Meanwhile, the velocity on his fastball dropped from 89.7 mph to 87.8 mph. So Robertson either fell in love with his slider or lost faith in his fastball, or both. And given his trouble throwing strikes, hitters were probably teeing off on fat fastballs or sliders that didn't move.

It will be interesting to track Robertson's fastball/slider this season, if he gets the chance to return to the rotation.

Five-No

Interesting note on Fangraphs about the lack of No. 5 starters. Phillies fans are gnashing their teeth over the 5 spot in Philly's rotation. I've always figured that if the No. 5 starter is among your chief concerns, you're in good shape. This would confirm that.

Twenty-two teams had three starters make 24 or more starts last season. Only 9 teams had four starters reach that number. Less than 10 percent could claim they had a No. 5 starter.

Last season, Detroit had three starters surpass 30 starts: Justin Verlander, Rick Porcello and Edwin Jackson. Armando Galarraga reached 25. Eight other pitchers made at least one start.

The Phils had two starters surpass 30 starts: Cole Hamels and Joe Blanton. Jamie Moyer reached 25 and J.A. Happ reached 23. Cliff Lee had 12 after he was acquired via trade. Pedro Martinez made 9 starts in his part-time role. Six other pitchers made at least one start.

Baltimore had one starter surpass 30 starts: Jeremy Guthrie. Jason Berken made 24 starts and 10 other pitchers made at least one start. Eight of those made at least 8 starts.

Grand beginning

Two of the biggest questions for the Tigers is whether they will be able to adequately replace the production of Curtis Granderson and Placido Polanco with rookies Austin Jackson and Scott Sizemore. So far so good.

Jackson, one of the key pieces in the three-team deal that sent Granderson to the Yankees, has impressed everyone in spring training. He is batting .424/.513/.667 in 33 ABs. He has struck out only four times while walking six. You can't read too much into spring stats, but I'd rather see this than see him struggling. His defense has been reported to be very good, as advertised.

Last year at Triple-A, Jackson batted .300/.354/.405 in 504 ABs. The previous year, he posted a .285/.354/.419 line at Double-A. He totaled 43 SB (10 caught) those two seasons. His RC/27 last year was approximately 5.2, which is not bad, but one might prefer a little more at that level.

Sizemore, returning from a broken ankle in the Arizona Fall League, has struggled this spring, batting .200/.351/.300. At least the OBP is decent. Sizemore has been a solid hitter throughout the minor (the knock on him is with the leather). Sizemore batted a combined .308/.389/.500 last year in Double-A (228 ABs) and Triple-A (292 ABs) with 21 SB in 25 attempts. His approximate RC/27 was 7.1, which I would consider a very solid.

Granderson and Polanco ranked No. 2 and No. 3 in RC for the Tigers last year, behind only Miguel Cabrera. It should be noted their production was good, but not great, so the pressure to fill those shoes is lessened a bit. Still, Detroit needs for Jackson and Sizemore to produce at decent levels to make up for the departures.

Tub of Laird

There is no question Gerald Laird is a very good defensive catcher. Offensively, he was challenged in 2009. He got more than 400 PAs for just the second time in his career and his OPS+ was a dismal 64. Coincidentally, the other time he got more than 400 PAs, his OPS+ was 64. If nothing else he is consistent.

Hopefully, Laird can improve on his numbers this year. His OPS+ was above average two of the first three months of last season and took a significant tumble as the year went on. The bottom third of Detroit's lineup was a black hole the second half of last season: Brandon Inge's OPS+ for that stretch was 45, Laird's was 48 and Adam Everett's was 43.

It is unreasonable to expect much from Everett, but hopefully Inge is healthy after offseason knee surgery and Laird has improved his endurance. This team missed the postseason by a game even with one-third of the lineup failing to produce anywhere near average, much less above average, for nearly half the campaign. Even modest improvement could go a long way in 2010.

Bad News, Good News

The bad news is that Brian Roberts ailing back, which he has repeatedly claimed is not a serious problem, but has, nevertheless, kept him out of the lineup all spring, now has him in Baltimore seeing a back specialist.

The good news is, not having Roberts in the lineup in no way hinders the O's chances of winning a pennant.

What the...?

!@#$%^&*(

Phillies Win Game 1

ConvincingLee.

On a Brighter Note

Brian Roberts has 55 doubles on the season, tying Lance Berkman's MLB record for doubles in a season by a switch hitter.

$18 million man

The Tigers will owe Magglio Ordonez $18 million next season now that his option is guaranteed. Much has been made of this, particularly as Ordonez has struggled offensively much of this season. But maybe there can be room for hope. While it is doubtful Ordonez can produce at an $18-million level in 2010, maybe he can get to $10 million or a little more?

Over his last 35 games entering Friday, Ordonez was batting .382 and slugging .518. His OPS during that span was .971.

Looking at Magg's stats, he is hitting line drives at his usual rate and not swinging at pitches out of the strike zone any more than normal. He also is making contact across the board at his usual rate. The big difference is his groundball rate is 10% higher than usual. Groundballs are outs 75% of the time and -- obviously -- can't be home runs.

If his recent hitting is not just a flash in the pan maybe Maggs can return to being an above-average producer again.

Felix the Bat

In the 26 games he's played since the All Star break, Felix Pie is hitting .317 with 6 HR and 16 RBI and a Slugging Avg of .610. Those 26 games include one in which he hit for the cycle.

The return of Nate

Nate Robertson will return to the Tigers' starting rotation on Saturday after 5 games at Triple-A Toledo where he posted a 1.89 ERA and had a K/BB rate of 21/4 in 19 IP. What a boost an even mediocre (not great) Nate could be.

Detroit hosts TB this weekend. The Tigers are 5 games ahead in the loss column of Chicago and Minny. It would be terrific if the Tigs could take 2 of 3, especially being at home. And the White Sox are playing in the Bronx and the Twins are hosting the Rangers. It could be a chance to open more ground.

This will never happen

But it would be fun to see Jamie Moyer striding in from the pen to close. After the performances of Lidge and Madson, why not? I know conventional wisdom says Moyer's slop cannot be closer stuff. Yet here is something to consider: Moyer was at his best this season on pitches 1-25, when batters went .240/.310/.403 against him.

Here is something else I noticed about Moyer, which would not bode well for him as a closer. Last season, he allowed an OPS of .549 when he had two strikes on a batter. That was dead-on league average. Also, he was super when he was at 0-2, yielding a .342 OPS, which was 27% better than league average.

This year, Moyer is allowing an OPS of .725 when he has two strikes, which is 65% worse than league average. When the count is 0-2, batters are smacking to the tune of a .598 OPS, which is 115% worse than league average.

Again, that's .549/.725 with two strikes and .342/.598 when 0-2. If Moyer cannot trick batters with two strikes, he is in trouble.

C.C. rider

Remember the splash C.C. Sabathia made last year with the Brewers when he was traded from the Indians. Well, as great as Sabathia pitched, he had nothing on Cliff Lee -- at least through their first 5 appearances in the NL.

Sabathia went 4-0 with a 1.82 ERA. He pitched 39.2 innings, allowing 29 hits while walking 10 and striking out 34. Foes had a .559 OPS. He threw 3 complete games including a shutout.

Lee is 5-0 with a 0.68 ERA. He has pitched 40 innings, allowing 24 hits while walking 6 and striking out 39. Foes have a .443 OPS. He has thrown 2 complete games and gave up no earned runs in one.

That sound you just heard was Indians' fans knocking their heads against the wall.

Sabathia made 12 more starts for Milwaukee and went 7-2 with a 1.58 ERA, so Lee still has his work cut out for him if he wants to better Sabathia the rest of the way. But it is an amazing beginning for Lee.

Needing some O

The Tigers added O to their lineup today in the former of acquiring Aubrey Huff from the Orioles. At least that's the hope. Huff has decent numbers, but not up to his usual standards. In that regard, he will fit in nicely in Detroit.

Detroit holds a 3-game lead in the loss column in the AL Central. The formula has been pretty consistent this year -- get good pitching, win; don't get good pitching, lose. The Tigers are 44-7 when allowing 3 runs or fewer. They are 18-48 the rest of the time.

Offensively, Detroit has been shut out only 3 times, but has scored between 2-5 runs in 81 of 117 games. That's 69 percent. They are 32-49 when scoring between 2-5 runs, which thanks to the pitching, isn't bad. They exceed the MLB win percentages for games in which they score 2, 3 and 4 runs. They are below average when scoring 5.

The Tigers are 11-3 when scoring 4 runs, which is a .786 win clip. The MLB average is .517.

Detroit is 11th in the AL in OPS and 11th in BB/K ratio. The Tigers are 2nd in swinging at the highest percentage of pitches in the strike zone, but that could be in part because they are 4th in highest percentage of swings. They are 11th in percentage of making contact on balls in the strike zone and 10th in overall contact.

Smoltz to Detroit?

Way back in 1987, the Tigers traded 20-year-old prospect John Smoltz to the Atlanta Braves for Doyle Alexander. It is one of the most rehashed trades of all time, thanks to what Smoltz became. But Alexander went 9-0 with a 1.53 ERA for Detroit and helped the Tigs win the division.

Smoltz was designated for assignment by the Red Sox and I'm not alone in wondering whether he might now finally pitch for the Tigers. He is a Michigan native and it would be pretty wild if he joined the squad and helped them win the division this season.

In Boston, Smoltz posted an 8.33 ERA in 8 starts. According to fangraphs.com, his K/9 was 7.43 and BB/9 was 2.03. Those aren't terrible numbers. His BABIP was a ridiculous .390 and his LOB percentage an equally absurd 57 percent. His line drive percentage was 18, so he's not getting raked. Something doesn't compute.

His fastball is averaging 91.3 mph, which isn't bad either. The speed of his slider is down by about 2 mph, so I wonder if that's the trouble? Batters are making contact on 63 percent of pitches outside the strike zone, so could one guess the slider is no longer a swing-and-a-miss?

Still, given the Tigers need for pitching, it is intriguing.

Cole gets coal in 2009 stocking

In sabermetrics, it is argued that the “three true outcomes,” which are walks, strikeouts and homers, can provide a better window into a pitcher’s future performance than wins, losses and ERA. If that is true, it is worth taking a look at Cole Hamels using this method.

Getting stats from baseball-reference.com, Hamels has faced 542 batters so far this season. He has a 4.77 ERA. Last year, after facing 530 batters (the nearest comparison I could easily calculate), Hamels had a 3.18 ERA.

In 2008, Hamels had 118 K, 33 BB and 17 HR through 530 batters. This season, he has 111 K, 27 BB and 20 HR.

To take it another step, in 2007 Hamels had a 3.69 ERA after facing 543 batters. He had 129 K, 32 BB and 21 HR.

Those numbers aren’t dramatically different, but the results this year have been. That would point toward Hamels being a victim of some bad luck.

In 2007, foes were hitting .251 against Hamels while in 2008 it was .204. This year, it is .283. His line drive percentage for 2007 was 16, in 2008 it was 20 and in 2009 it is 19. So Hamels probably had a little bit of good luck last year in keeping the BA against low, but the 19 percent this season is not bad by comparison.

Hamels’ BABIP this season is .331. It was .270 for all of last year and it was .289 for all of 2007.

Bad luck might not explain all of Hamels’ woes this season. Obviously, other factors can contribute to batters getting more hits. But given that his three true outcomes mirror the past two seasons, bad luck might be part of it.

They might not be giants

Don't you wish Brian Sabean was in your fantasy league? Especially at the trade deadline? Sabean traded one of the Giants top pitching prospects in Tim Alderson for, at best, a slightly better than league average hitting 2B in Freddy Sanchez.

Sabean also gave up another highly regarded pitching prospect for Ryan Garko.

Remember Francisco Liriano, Joe Nathan and Boof Bonser for A.J. Pierzynski? How about that Barry Zito contract?

The Phillies should immediately offer Eric Bruntlett for Madison Bumgarner. And the Tigers should offer Ryan Raburn.

Seriously.

More on Lee trade

More than simply adding the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner, the Phillies added the talent at a very minimal cost. Philadelphia gave up pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Jason Knapp along with infielder Jason Donald and catcher Lou Marson. Sure, these were four of the Phils top-rated prospects, but that might be an indictment of their system rather than praise.

Carrasco is regarded as a good prospect, but hasn't been tearing it up in Triple-A. He has not pitched as poorly as his 5.18 ERA would suggest, but some have questioned whether he has the makeup to be a top starter.

Knapp is regarded as a very good prospect, but he's pretty much just out of high school and currently on the DL with a sore shoulder. Sure, he might turn into the next John Smoltz, but he was years from helping the Phils, who want to win now.

Donald is a decent prospect, but a man without a place in Philly, stuck behind Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley. He was perfect trade fodder. He, too, has struggled at Triple-A.

Marson is regarded as a decent hitter, less than great defensive catcher. It seems catching prospects rarely live up to expectations, so I'm always for trading them.

Now, factor in that the Phils also got OF Ben Francisco to add some bench depth, and this deal swings even more in the Fightins direction. Francisco is probably not much more than league average, but he's got a little pop. Plus, the Phils can keep Lee at a reasonable price for next season.

Real-Lee good move

Philadelphia added Cliff Lee to its starting rotation for 4 minor leaguers. The Phillies also got OF Ben Francisco, who will provide a right-handed bat off the bench.

Lee, whose middle name is Phifer, immediately becomes Philly's best starter. Using the Game Score method, Lee has tossed 7 "gems" this year in 22 starts (nearly 32 percent). He has 14 starts with scores of 55 or better. Teams last year won at a .683 clip when starters had scores of 50 or better; the Indians were 7-7 in Lee's 14 games of 55 or better. (The Phils are 32-12, .727, when getting a 55 or better.)

The Phillies have had 19 starts this season in 98 games that qualify as gems. Joe Blanton has 6, Cole Hamels 5, J.A. Happ 4, Jamie Moyer has 2, Chan Ho Park 1, Brett Myers 1. Park is now in the bullpen and Myers is on the DL. The Phils were 16-3 in those 19 gems.

Philadelphia has won in large part thanks to its offense. In the 25 worst starts by Phils' pitchers, the Fightins were 12-13. That's pretty remarkable. Last year, the Angels were 14-29 when their starters had a Game Score under 40. That record led MLB. The Phils are 14-16 in such games this season.

Lee has 3 complete games this season; Phillies starters have 2.

The only troubling component of Lee's game is he is not a groundball pitcher and over the past two seasons only 6 percent of his flyballs have turned into homers. That is a very low number, below the average of 10-11 percent. Pitching in the Zen might change that.

On the bright side, Philadelphia is a much better defensive team than Cleveland, which should benefit Lee.

Dead GM Walking

I wasn't all that upset with the manner in which the Mets fired Willie Randolph last June. The New York media was up in arms about the Mets flying Randolph across the country to fire him in the middle of the night and while I agreed that it wasn't the ideal way to deliver the news, I didn't dwell on it. The Mets had fired a bad manager and that was good enough for me. Improving the quality of baseball on the field was more important to me than the team's public relations strategies. Today that balance has shifted.

Obviously the Mets needed to fire Tony Bernazard. If various media reports are to believed, he acted in an extremely unprofessional manner on numerous occasions. Explaining as much to the New York media should have been the easiest thing in the world. But somehow Omar Minaya and the Mets managed to screw that up, too.

Minaya, either through an impromptu bad decision, or a poorly-conceived, Wilpon-approved plot, subtly questioned the motives of Daily News reporter Adam Rubin. Minaya apparently thought that he could insinuate that Rubin was out to get Bernazard fired and take his job and get away with it. The only conclusions that can be drawn from this are that either Minaya doesn't think before he speaks or he's terrible at predicting a media reaction. Given that recent events and the current state of the major league team already bring into question his talent evaluation skills, he's running low on job responsibilities that I could say he executes competently.

It's certainly possible that Minaya is merely a puppet of ownership in this incident. Even if he acted on his own, the whole Bernazard episode raises new questions about the Wilpons' ability to run this organization. I would not be at all upset if they decided in the near future to sell the team. But for now, I think the very least they can do is fire Minaya. He's assembled a bad team and now he's put himself squarely in the crosshairs of the local media. This is far too deep a hole for Minaya to dig himself out of. Now is as good a time as any to make a fresh start with this team with an eye toward next year.

Take two

Detroit swept the White Sox in today's double dip, giving the Tigers a 2-game cushion in the AL Central. Justin Verlander got the job done in the opener with a complete game and a bases-loaded walk by Clete Thomas in the eighth inning gave the Tigs a 4-3 victory in the nightcap.

Good news: Carlos Guillen is back. He was 2-for-3 with a solo HR in the second game.

Edwin Jackson faces Tiger killer Gavin Floyd on Saturday. Rick Porcello pitches for Detroit on Sunday.

Porcello has struggled lately. His ERA is 9.45 in his last 3 starts. His Game Scores are 23-29-32 in those outings. Foes have an OPS of 1.127 in those starts. He does not have a Game Score better than 46 in his last 5 starts. He has pitched 92 innings this year; he tossed 125 innings at Class A Lakeland last season.

The Tigers have tried to limit his workload (99 is the most pitches he's thrown in a game and he's been below 90 in 12 of 17 starts) so it might be too early to think Porcello is hitting the wall. Maybe it's just a slump. Maybe not.

Clunk!

Today, the Tigers lost 2-1 for the fourth time in their last five games. Meanwhile, the White Sox get a perfect game from Mark Buehrle to move into a first-place tie with Detroit.

Now the kitties get 4 games against Chicago.

Meanwhile, MLB.com had a report about Dontrelle Willis working out in Toledo. At this point, the Tigs might want to consider bringing back Willis for his bat. He had an OPS of .856 in 2007.

A vote for Pedro

The Phillies signed Pedro Martinez to a 1-year, $1-million deal, which to me seems like a low-risk, high-reward move (much like the Mets signing Gary Sheffield this season). The biggest questions are whether Pedro is healthy enough to start regularly and how long it will be before he's ready for action.

Last season, Martinez was 5-6 with a 5.61 ERA in 20 starts for the Mets. But he had a 9-game stretch in the middle of his year in which he posted a 3.48 ERA and struck out 42 in 51.2 IP. He was not very good in September, but it is likely because his arm was ailing.

A trip to Fangraphs.com reveals some interesting data. First, Pedro's fastball averaged 87.7 mph last year, which is not far from his 2005 average (88.0) when he went 15-8 with a 2.82 ERA and fanned 208 in 217 IP.

One problem he had in 2008 was he had a career-worst 1.98 K/BB ratio. His K/9 was a career-low 7.18 and his BB/9 of 3.63 was his worst since 1993 (when he was primarily a reliever).

Obviously, his chances of be successful drop if he doesn't have command. According to Fangraphs data, he used his fastball and changeup more than usual last season and barely used his slider. I would guess a sore shoulder might have reduced his ability to throw the slider; he used it 1.6% in 2008 compared to 12.3% in 2005. (It's also possible his sliders were reclassified as cutters, because his cutter percentage was an unusually high 7.3.)

Assuming the slider data is correct, it might hold the biggest key to Pedro being successful. If his arm is good, and he can throw his slider, he might be able to regain his form. Pedro is a smart pitcher at this point in his career, not unlikely Jamie Moyer. Even as Pedro's fastball diminished, he still got hitters out with regularity.

If anywhere near healthy, this might be interesting.

Then Along Came Jones

Adam Jones, the Orioles lone representative in last nights All-Star game, delivered the game winning RBI in the 8th inning with a sacrifice fly to right field scoring the Tigers Curtis Granderson from 3rd base.

At the break

The Tigers are 48-39 and hold a 3.5-game lead over the White Sox and 4-game lead over the Twins. With KC falling 11.5 back, it looks safe to call this a three-horse race for the title.

Detroit is averaging 4.8 runs while giving up 4.4. Chicago is averaging 4.6 runs and giving up 4.6. Minnesota is averaging 4.9 runs and allowing 4.5. Based on runs created and allowed, it would seem the Twins should be better than a game over .500, so that's a concern.

Another concern: The Twins have played 25 games against the AL East (going 6-19). The Tigers and White Sox both played only 14 games against the East (with Detroit going 4-10 and the Sox going 5-9). Detroit still has 22 games vs. the East, with 12 at home.

The Tigers are 27-13 at home.

One advantage for Detroit, the Twins have played 48 games at home (28-20) and they are only 17-24 on the road.

Detroit has 42 starts with Game Scores of 50 or better (going 34-8). The Tigers have 24 starts with Game Scores of 40 or worse (going 4-20).

Chicago has 48 starts with Game Scores of 50 or better (going 35-13). The Sox have 26 starts with Game Scores of 40 or worse (going 5-21).

Minnesota has 47 starts with Game Scores of 50 or better (going 34-13). The Twins have 26 starts with Game Scores of 40 or worse (going 5-21).

To break it down a bit more, Detroit pitchers have 25 starts with Game Scores of 65 or better ("gem" territory) while the White Sox have 26 and the Twins have 16.

This would seem to indicate that Detroit and Chicago will need to get solid pitching in the second half, or they might struggle. The Twins would appear to have a more consistent offense and with any improved pitching could be most dangerous.

Detroit has 3 regular starters and 5 relievers with ERA+ of 100 or better. Chicago has 5 regular starters and 5 relievers with ERA+ of 100 or better. Minnesota has 1 regular starter and 4 relievers with ERA+ of 100 or better.

The Tigers top of the rotation, with Justin Verlander and Edwin Jackson, is better than the White Sox, but Chicago has gotten good production throughout the rotation. The keys for the Tigers, other than hoping Verlander and Jackson continue to shine, will be how rookie Rick Porcello fares deeper in the season and whether Armando Garlarraga can pick up any slack.

Winning Ball for 30 Days

In 27 games over the past 30 days the Baltimore Orioles are 15-12, 9-6 vs. NL teams and 6-6 vs. AL teams.

Over the same time period, the team ERA is 9th in the AL at 4.24. O's pitching has issued the 6th fewest walks and 4th fewest HR during the stretch.

The offense was 5th in BA, Runs, Walks and Number of Pitches. They were 12th in HR and Slugging.

The leather was 10th in Fielding Pct and committed more errors than all but two AL teams.

So, what to make of a winning record over the course of 30 days? 15 of the 27 games against the NL East, who, as a division, spent the month of June in a funk, was a big help and is also where the 3 wins to the plus side came from.

However, winning 6 of 12 from AL teams, including 3 of 7 on a west coast trip made the last 30 days prior to the All-Star break look promising. The O's had a winning stretch in interleague play and followed it up with a break even stretch rather than a losing stretch.

The hitting and defense, although not performing poorly, has performed better in the past and it is not unreasonable to hope for better in the 2nd half. The bullpen has performed well thus far and for the first season in quite a few, they are not "cooked" already. The starting pitching has been competitive over the last month and here's hoping the youngsters continue to get hitters out.

A little rest over the All-Star break and onto July, August and September, where we find out if these O's really are Major Leaguers.

"If on-base percentage is so important, then why don't they put it on the scoreboard?"

The author of those words of wisdom, twenty-five year old Jeffrey Braden Francoeur, is now a New York Met and I can hardly believe it. I can't even muster the energy to be sarcastic about this. Jeff Francoeur is terrible at playing baseball. And now he's going to be in right field every day.

Francoeur is hitting .250/.282/.352 this season for an OPS+ of 68. This makes him the new worst hitter in the Mets lineup, by a decent margin. Yes, even on days when Omir Santos is starting. There are only three hitters in the National League with enough at bats to qualify for the batting title and a lower OBP than Francoeur's .282. And while the fact that one of them is Jimmy Rollins is hilarious, it doesn't change the fact that Frenchy is having a truly terrible year at the plate.

And there can be no argument that this is some kind of slump that he might be ready to bust out of, because he had an almost identical line last year. The only difference seems to be that he's walking even less this year. Even when he was "good" in 2006 and 2007, he wasn't actually good. He may have driven in 100 runs both of those years, but he also put together a combined line of .276/.315/.446 and an OPS+ of 95. Yes, even in his best days, he was a below average hitter. Not exactly the stuff that corner outfield stars are made of.

Francoeur does apparently play very good defense, or at least have a very good arm, but then so does the man he's been traded for. Ryan Church can play right field well. He can also play center field, saving the Mets from playing Angel Pagan or Jeremy Reed every day. And, oh yeah, he can get on base every once in a while. Church is by no means a great player, but the one thing Francoeur can do, Church can also do. The fact that he is also not completely hopeless with a bat in his hands is just an added bonus.

There's been talk of Jerry Manuel and/or others in the Mets organization not liking Church for a long time and I guess this just about confirms that. Church didn't always live up to expectations and he had some bad luck with the concussions last year, but when he was able and allowed to get on the field, he was a solid contributor. It would certainly have been possible for the Mets to upgrade the right field position, but they did not do that here. They traded a decent player for one of the worst hitters in the game. And they're going to play him every day. I don't know how much more of this season I can take.

Tonight's the night

Things don't look good for the Mets right now. The team is four and a half games out of first place, losers of fourteen of their last twenty games. Sixty percent of the team's core is on the disabled list and not coming back any time soon. David Wright's OPS has dropped over a hundred points in the last three weeks. But tonight, things start to turn around. Tonight, the Mets have hope. Tonight, the Mets begin the run that will carry them back to the top of the NL East.

Oliver Perez is back!

I'm excited!

Scoreboard watching

The Phillies are 1-0 this season in games in which they've scored 22 runs.

The Phillies are 2-0 in games in which their pitchers allowed 11 earned runs.

The Phillies are 37-7 when scoring 5 or more runs.

The Phillies are 2-26 when scoring 3 or fewer runs.

The Phillies are 4-4 when scoring 4 runs.

The Phillies are 17-7 when leading after the first inning. (A .708 win percentage compared to the MLB average of .692.)

The Phillies are 35-6 when leading after the eighth inning. (An .854 win percentage compared to the MLB average of .955.)

The Phillies are 9-26 when trailing after six innings. (A .257 win percentage compared to the MLB average of .138.)

Inge-ing toward the All-Star Game

Looking at the Wins Above Replacement rankings on Fangraphs.com and the top 3 players in the AL are Rays -- Ben Zobrist, Evan Longoria and Carl Crawford. That trio is followed by Tigers 3B Brandon Inge, who is battling for the final AL All-Star spot in online voting. Vote for Brandon. A vote for Brandon is a vote for goodness.

Fun from Jayson Stark

This note from Stark's ESPN column:

MLB.com's Marty Noble inspired me to look this one up. The Mets just managed to go two straight games without an extra-base hit in Citizens Bank Park, on Saturday and Sunday. So how many other teams have done that since this hitter's palace opened in 2004? How about zero -- in either the same series or even the same season.

Happy birthday to the One Dog

Lance Johnson, the first player to lead both the American League and National League in hits for a season. And he did it in consecutive years, 1995 with the White Sox and 1996 with the Mets.

Johnson once was traded for Jose DeLeon, who had one of the more unusual careers in recent memory. DeLeon twice lost 19 games. He had a losing record in four of six seasons in which he primarily was a starter and posted an ERA+ better than 100 (including going 4-5 with a 2.96 ERA and 5-9 with a 2.71 ERA).

But back to One Dog. In additon to leading both leagues in hits, he was the third player to lead each league in triples and set a record by topping the AL in three-baggers for four consecutive years. And I liked his nickname.

NL Least

The Phillies lost tonight in Atlanta, pulling the Marlins into a tie for the division lead. As a side note, Jair Jurrjens was the winning pitching on Wednesday night and on Thursday night scored what proved to be the winning run (as a pinch runner). I wonder how often a pitcher has won a game and scored the winning run on back-to-back nights?

Anyway, here is a look at the starting pitching in the division, using our favorite stat, the Game Score. Remember, last year teams with a score of 50 or better won at a .683 pace. The first number below is the Game Scores of 50 or better, followed by the team's W-L record in those contests.

Philadelphia 33 (20-13 .606)
Florida 39 (28-11 .718)
New York 44 (30-14 .682)
Atlanta 46 (30-16 .652)
Washington 33 (16-17 .485)

Interesting that Philly and Washington have the same number of 50+ starts. Phillies fans can hope improved starting pitching. Such would seem reasonable, except the longer the season goes on, the more one wonders whether Hamels and Co. will flip the switch. The Fightins have won 19 games in which their starter's Game Score was below 50, which one would figure cannot continue. The Mets and Braves have only won 8 and 7, respectively.

The Mets, for all their woes, have a better Score total than I expected.