Sparky's trying to pinpoint the troubles with the Tigers offense. Here are some stats versus the AL averages.
RISP AL: .267/.354/.408 for .763 OPS
RISP Tigs: .259/.339/.397 for .736 OPS
BABIP for above AL: .296
BABIP for above Tigs: .284
Runner on 3rd less than 2 out AL: .338/.381/.507 for .888 OPS
Runner on 3rd less than 2 out Tigs: .387/.407/.645 for 1.052 OPS
BABIP for above AL: .322
BABIP for above Tigs: .364
Runner on 3rd with 2 outs AL: .223/.336/.343 for .680 OPS
Runner on 3rd with 2 outs Tigs: .207/.324/.261 for .585 OPS
BABIP for above AL: .262
BABIP for above Tigs: .257
RISP with 2 outs AL: .240/.345/.362 for .707 OPS
RISP with 2 outs Tigs: .226/.329/.317 for .646 OPS
BABIP for above AL: .285
BABIP for above Tigs: .270
With runners on 2nd and 3rd, the AL OPS is .824 and BABIP is .314
With runners on 2nd and 3rd, the Tigs OPS is .680 and BABIP is .273
The AL has a 1.711 OPS with a 3-0 count. The Tigs have a .979 OPS on a 3-0 count.
After a 3-0 count, the AL has a 1.209 OPS. The Tigs have a 1.233 OPS. The AL BABIP after a 3-0 count is .280. The Tigs is .214.
The AL overall BABIP is .292. The Tigs is .291.
Leading off an inning, the AL OPS is .702 with BABIP of .287.
Leading off an inning, the Tigs OPS is .732 with BABIP of .270.
The No. 3 batter in the AL lineups has a .774 OPS with BABIP of .299.
The No. 3 batter for the Tigs has a .660 OPS with BABIP of .242.
Those are a lot of numbers, but it's clear the Tigers are underperforming against the AL average in a number of what I would view as key categories.
It also is interesting that while the Tigers overall BABIP is practically at the AL average, their BABIP in the key categories is almost always lower. This might indicate the Tigers have been the victims of some bad luck during the early part of this year.
I thought perhaps the Tigers were hitting into more DPs than the AL with RISP, but both came in at 3% of RISP plate appearances and around 3.5% of RISP at-bats. However, the Tigs are GIDP 9.3% of at-bats with a runner on 1st while the AL average is 8.5%. With runners on 1st and 2nd, the Tigs GIDP is 9.5% while the AL average is 7.3%. The Tigs overall GIDP is 6% while the AL average is 5.7%.
Friday, May 30, 2008
Wednesday, May 28, 2008
AMAZIN'
Aaron Heilman pitches two perfect innings, striking out four. Endy Chavez hits a game-tying pinch hit home run in the bottom of the ninth, just as I'm cursing Willie for taking out Ramon Castro. And after Duaner Sanchez gives up a twelfth-inning home run to Alfredo Amezaga of all people, the Mets fight back, capped off by a two-run double by Fernando Tatis. If this game doesn't wake the Mets up, nothing will.
Oh, and a little bit further south, Pedro Martinez strikes out six minor leaguers, walking none and allowing two runs on four hits in six innings.
It's beginning to feel a bit like 2006.
Oh, and a little bit further south, Pedro Martinez strikes out six minor leaguers, walking none and allowing two runs on four hits in six innings.
It's beginning to feel a bit like 2006.
Futility ... again
The Tigers lost 3-2 last night. Detroit had 3 hits, never had an AB with RISP and left zero runners on base. At least they weren't shut out. But it was the 20th time this season the Tigs scored 2 or fewer runs. That's 38% of the games so far.
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
Misery loves company
All sharp objects have been taken from Mr. Met and Sparky, reducing them to eating with sporks, and they're forced to remove their belts when getting ready to watch MLB.
This is what it's become: The Tigers are tied for last place with the Royals in the AL Central, even after KC has lost 8 in a row. Detroit is 7-1/2 games out of first, its largest deficit of the season.
Last night, the Tigers got shut out for the EIGHTH time this year. They have not shut out an opponent. They lost on a bases-loaded BB in the 12th inning after going 0-for-12 with RISP. It was the ELEVENTH time this year a Detroit pitcher issued a BB with the sacks full. (Tigers batters have received 4.)
The Tigers have allowed 110 runs with 2 outs. They've scored 84. The Tigers have allowed an .855 OPS with RISP. They have a .733 OPS with RISP.
Detroit's ability to sometimes put double digits on the board in a game has the squad No. 3 in the AL in runs. The Tigers are averaging close to 5 runs per outing, but those numbers are misleading. If you look at the median, the Tigs are much closer to a 3 run per game team.
Stats explain how the Tigers are 21-30, but fail to answer why. Why is this team, which other players rank as having among the best hitters and pitchers in MLB, so bad? That remains the perplexing question.
Damn this spork.
This is what it's become: The Tigers are tied for last place with the Royals in the AL Central, even after KC has lost 8 in a row. Detroit is 7-1/2 games out of first, its largest deficit of the season.
Last night, the Tigers got shut out for the EIGHTH time this year. They have not shut out an opponent. They lost on a bases-loaded BB in the 12th inning after going 0-for-12 with RISP. It was the ELEVENTH time this year a Detroit pitcher issued a BB with the sacks full. (Tigers batters have received 4.)
The Tigers have allowed 110 runs with 2 outs. They've scored 84. The Tigers have allowed an .855 OPS with RISP. They have a .733 OPS with RISP.
Detroit's ability to sometimes put double digits on the board in a game has the squad No. 3 in the AL in runs. The Tigers are averaging close to 5 runs per outing, but those numbers are misleading. If you look at the median, the Tigs are much closer to a 3 run per game team.
Stats explain how the Tigers are 21-30, but fail to answer why. Why is this team, which other players rank as having among the best hitters and pitchers in MLB, so bad? That remains the perplexing question.
Damn this spork.
Monday, May 26, 2008
Doomed!
The Mets did not elect to fire manager Willie Randolph today and as a result will probably never win another game. I don't know who the Mets could or would hire that would be able to turn things around, especially given that both Bobby Valentine and Earl Weaver are likely unavailable. But I don't really think the team is going to be able to find a new first baseman, a new second baseman, a whole new bench and a way to keep Ryan Church, Moises Alou, Pedro Martinez and Orlando Hernandez healthy for the rest of the year. A managerial change seems like the most practical way to awaken this slumbering alleged giant. I won't pretend I know what's going on inside the heads of the players, but they certainly look like they could benefit from being shaken up a bit. And if the replacement manager happens to be competent at the motivational and/or tactical aspects of his job, all the better.
Unfortunately, each day this team's .500 play looks like less of an aberration. They are currently 23-26, which may be slightly unlucky given that they've scored 231 runs and allowed 230. But over their last 162 games, they've won 79 and lost 83. If this is a slump, it's been going on for nearly a third of Randolph's managerial tenure. They've won fewer games over Willie's last 162 than they did over his first 162 and that team had Doug Mientkiewicz, Miguel Cairo, Victor Zambrano and Kazushisa Ishii starting for much of the season.
Of course, the Mets haven't lost those 26 games this year based on Willie's oddly constructed lineups and strange bullpen machinations alone. Numerous players are underperforming relative to preseason expectations while very few are exceeding expectations. The only real pleasant surprises have been Ryan Church, who's hitting .311/.378/.530 but hasn't started since getting kneed in the head on Tuesday, and Scott Schoeneweis, who's been excellent but isn't likely to maintain a 1.42 ERA only striking out 3.3 batters per nine innings. In general the bullpen has been pretty good, aside from Aaron Heilman, Matt Wise and the now departed Jorge Sosa. But when the starters and hitters aren't giving the bullpen leads to protect, they can only do so much.
Offensively, Brian Schneider has met expectations as after a hot start he's fallen back to his usual offensive ineptitude at .266/.331/.330 entering tonight. David Wright and Jose Reyes have underperformed a bit, but they've both been pretty solid with the bat and Reyes did smack a pair of home runs tonight, perhaps auguring a hot streak. Carlos Beltran's .256/.362/.438 start has been disappointing, but I don't doubt that he will get hot at some point. I am not so optimistic about Carlos Delgado and Luis Castillo. Delgado did hit four home runs last week, regardless of what the umpires said, but he only had one hit that wasn't a home run on the just concluded seven-game road trip. Castillo actually hit a home run last week, too, but he is still slugging just .317, and he doesn't have the high OBP (.358) or the speed (six double plays grounded into) to make his grounders-and-walks approach to offense very useful. Wright, Reyes and Beltran could get hot and carry this offense, but they'll need to, because no one else is going to.
The Mets' bench has also been awful. Met pinch hitters are hitting .172/.243/.266 and none of the assortment of fifth outfielders and second basemen that have been pressed into starting duty have done much with the bat. Ramon Castro is finally healthy and has gone four-for-twelve with two doubles, but of course Willie won't use his as a pinch hitter despite the fact that the Mets are carrying three catchers for some reason. Castro and Fernando Tatis are what passes for power hitters on this bench while twenty-nine year old Valentino Pascucci and his .730 slugging percentage remain in New Orleans. Omar Minaya has constructed a bench full of old middle infielders and defensively oriented outfielders even though left field and first base were the two positions where he was most likely to need a good backup this year. Calling up twenty-two year old Nick Evans to play left field over the weekend was a surprising move that worked for at least one day, as Evans hit three doubles and the Mets won. But the bench as a whole is still quite punchless. Replacing third catcher Raul Casanova with Pascucci would be a step in the right direction.
As for the starting rotation, the story is much the same as it was a few weeks ago. Johan Santana, John Maine, Oliver Perez and Mike Pelfrey are all still striking out fewer batters per nine innings than they were last year and all but Pelfrey are walking more. Santana has still been quite good, as you would expect from his 58:15 K:BB ratio, but as a whole, the starting staff has not made things easy on the offense, the defense or the bullpen. Pedro Martinez will likely return next week, which could give the team a boost both emotionally and in terms of strike-throwing. If Perez and Maine can regain their 2007 form, this could still be a formidable staff, with Claudio Vargas filling the fifth spot adequately while Pelfrey heads to AAA to try to figure out how to get lefties out. But Perez locating some consistency is about as big an "if" as Pedro staying healthy for the rest of the season.
This is clearly a flawed team, perhaps one that no one could manage into October. But there is still a lot of talent at its core. It is probably too late to surround that talent with a better supporting cast, but it's not too late to find them a new leader. Replacing Willie Randolph might not have any effect on this team's fortunes for the rest of the season and if that's the case, Omar Minaya may follow him out the door at season's end. But I think things have gotten bad enough that just waiting for the team to start playing better shouldn't be an option for much longer. Some sort of action needs to be taken and I'd much prefer firing the manager to the team's traditional response to adversity. Luckily there aren't many prospects left to trade.
Unfortunately, each day this team's .500 play looks like less of an aberration. They are currently 23-26, which may be slightly unlucky given that they've scored 231 runs and allowed 230. But over their last 162 games, they've won 79 and lost 83. If this is a slump, it's been going on for nearly a third of Randolph's managerial tenure. They've won fewer games over Willie's last 162 than they did over his first 162 and that team had Doug Mientkiewicz, Miguel Cairo, Victor Zambrano and Kazushisa Ishii starting for much of the season.
Of course, the Mets haven't lost those 26 games this year based on Willie's oddly constructed lineups and strange bullpen machinations alone. Numerous players are underperforming relative to preseason expectations while very few are exceeding expectations. The only real pleasant surprises have been Ryan Church, who's hitting .311/.378/.530 but hasn't started since getting kneed in the head on Tuesday, and Scott Schoeneweis, who's been excellent but isn't likely to maintain a 1.42 ERA only striking out 3.3 batters per nine innings. In general the bullpen has been pretty good, aside from Aaron Heilman, Matt Wise and the now departed Jorge Sosa. But when the starters and hitters aren't giving the bullpen leads to protect, they can only do so much.
Offensively, Brian Schneider has met expectations as after a hot start he's fallen back to his usual offensive ineptitude at .266/.331/.330 entering tonight. David Wright and Jose Reyes have underperformed a bit, but they've both been pretty solid with the bat and Reyes did smack a pair of home runs tonight, perhaps auguring a hot streak. Carlos Beltran's .256/.362/.438 start has been disappointing, but I don't doubt that he will get hot at some point. I am not so optimistic about Carlos Delgado and Luis Castillo. Delgado did hit four home runs last week, regardless of what the umpires said, but he only had one hit that wasn't a home run on the just concluded seven-game road trip. Castillo actually hit a home run last week, too, but he is still slugging just .317, and he doesn't have the high OBP (.358) or the speed (six double plays grounded into) to make his grounders-and-walks approach to offense very useful. Wright, Reyes and Beltran could get hot and carry this offense, but they'll need to, because no one else is going to.
The Mets' bench has also been awful. Met pinch hitters are hitting .172/.243/.266 and none of the assortment of fifth outfielders and second basemen that have been pressed into starting duty have done much with the bat. Ramon Castro is finally healthy and has gone four-for-twelve with two doubles, but of course Willie won't use his as a pinch hitter despite the fact that the Mets are carrying three catchers for some reason. Castro and Fernando Tatis are what passes for power hitters on this bench while twenty-nine year old Valentino Pascucci and his .730 slugging percentage remain in New Orleans. Omar Minaya has constructed a bench full of old middle infielders and defensively oriented outfielders even though left field and first base were the two positions where he was most likely to need a good backup this year. Calling up twenty-two year old Nick Evans to play left field over the weekend was a surprising move that worked for at least one day, as Evans hit three doubles and the Mets won. But the bench as a whole is still quite punchless. Replacing third catcher Raul Casanova with Pascucci would be a step in the right direction.
As for the starting rotation, the story is much the same as it was a few weeks ago. Johan Santana, John Maine, Oliver Perez and Mike Pelfrey are all still striking out fewer batters per nine innings than they were last year and all but Pelfrey are walking more. Santana has still been quite good, as you would expect from his 58:15 K:BB ratio, but as a whole, the starting staff has not made things easy on the offense, the defense or the bullpen. Pedro Martinez will likely return next week, which could give the team a boost both emotionally and in terms of strike-throwing. If Perez and Maine can regain their 2007 form, this could still be a formidable staff, with Claudio Vargas filling the fifth spot adequately while Pelfrey heads to AAA to try to figure out how to get lefties out. But Perez locating some consistency is about as big an "if" as Pedro staying healthy for the rest of the season.
This is clearly a flawed team, perhaps one that no one could manage into October. But there is still a lot of talent at its core. It is probably too late to surround that talent with a better supporting cast, but it's not too late to find them a new leader. Replacing Willie Randolph might not have any effect on this team's fortunes for the rest of the season and if that's the case, Omar Minaya may follow him out the door at season's end. But I think things have gotten bad enough that just waiting for the team to start playing better shouldn't be an option for much longer. Some sort of action needs to be taken and I'd much prefer firing the manager to the team's traditional response to adversity. Luckily there aren't many prospects left to trade.
Saturday, May 24, 2008
Ryan Howard revisited
Sparky might not have been going out on a limb a couple weeks ago when stats suggested Ryan Howard would turn it around. He just blasted a 2-run HR tonight against the Astros and (entering tonight) was batting .294/.357/.804 for a 1.161 OPS since that post. Not counting tonight, he had 7 HR and 14 RBI in 13 games.
Friday, May 23, 2008
Boss man
The Tigers' bats came alive in their 3-game sweep of Seattle. Now can they keep it going? We've seen flashes of greatness in the past, but they went as quickly as they came.
Some are pointing to Jim Leyland's club meeting and mini-outburst on Tuesday as being a key to getting the players' attention. If nothing else, it seemed to make an impression on closer Todd Jones, who said the following in the Free Press:
"Look, this team needs to realize that this guy took on Barry Bonds. He'd run every one of us out of town. You're just better off if you don't cross him. And I think he relayed that message 100 percent. You just don't mess with him. It's not that hard. He doesn't ask a whole lot."
Some are pointing to Jim Leyland's club meeting and mini-outburst on Tuesday as being a key to getting the players' attention. If nothing else, it seemed to make an impression on closer Todd Jones, who said the following in the Free Press:
"Look, this team needs to realize that this guy took on Barry Bonds. He'd run every one of us out of town. You're just better off if you don't cross him. And I think he relayed that message 100 percent. You just don't mess with him. It's not that hard. He doesn't ask a whole lot."
Thursday, May 22, 2008
A blast and a boom
We've seen this before. Jim Leyland gets angry, blows up a bit (Jason Grilli still getting hit hard in Detroit), and the Tigers respond with runs. Of course, it helps that Seattle is in town. Dontrelle Willis is back, but in the bullpen. I'm still not sure he can throw strikes.
The Tigers are 18-3 when scoring 5 or more runs; 1-24 when scoring 4 or less. That also means Detroit has given up at least 5 runs in more than half its games.
Detroit is 4-3 when Ryan Raburn starts, making Raburn the only position player with a winning record. The Tigers are 5-1 when Armando Galarraga starts and 5-5 when Kenny Rogers is on the hill.
Tigs only have 2 HR from the No. 3 spot in the batting order.
Playing up the positive: Detroit has won 3 of 4.
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
So long, Mike
Today one of the greatest New York Mets off all time officially said goodbye to the game of baseball. Michael Joseph Piazza, most recently of the Oakland Athletics, announced his retirement, beginning the five year countdown to his Hall Of Fame induction. The only questions that remain are which hat, Mets or Dodgers, will adorn his plaque in Cooperstown--judging by Piazza's statement, he'd probably choose the interlocking NY--and just when the Mets will get around to retiring his number 31. Tom Seaver's number 41 took its place on the Shea Stadium wall in 1988, a year after his retirement, so I don't see why there wouldn't be a Mike Piazza Day on the inaugural Citi Field schedule.
Piazza's prodigious power was and remains his calling card, but to focus merely on the long ball underestimates how well rounded his offensive game was. The greatest home run-hitting catcher in the game's history also put up a career .307 batting average and a .377 OBP to go along with his .545 slugging percentage. His career OPS+ of 142 ranks 61st all time, tied with hitters like Miguel Cabrera, Todd Helton and Gary Sheffield and ahead of Ken Griffey Jr., Reggie Jackson and David Ortiz. Piazza managed to rank in the top ten in OPS in the National League five times in the 90s despite playing the most demanding defensive position on the diamond in two of the toughest parks in which to hit in the league.
And, yes, he hit 427 home runs, 396 of them as a catcher and six more in the postseason. There were plenty of memorable shots among those. There was the two-run blast to center in the bottom of the eighth on September 21, 2001, to give the Mets the lead over the Braves in their first home game after the attacks of ten days prior. There was the solo shot to right in the first inning on May 5, 2004, that broke Carlton Fisk's record for home runs by a catcher and which I was lucky enough to witness live. But the one that stands out in my memory today took place on a Friday night at Shea in 2000.
The Mets entered June 30th trailing the first place Braves by three games, having had a seven-game winning streak snapped by Atlanta a day earlier. The pitching matchup featured Mike Hampton for the Mets and Kevin Millwood for the Braves. Both went seven innings, but Millwood allowed just one run while Hampton was knocked around for five. Reliever Eric Cammack entered in the top of the eighth for the Mets and gave up two walks before Brian Jordan stepped to the plate and smacked a three-run home run to put the score at 8-1 in favor of the Braves. Cammack finished the top of the eighth*, bringing the heart of the Mets' lineup to the plate, beginning with two hitter Derek Bell.
Bell singled to center but Edgardo Alfonzo flied out. Piazza singled and went to second on a throwing error, putting runners on second and third for Robin Ventura. Ventura grounded out, driving in a run to make the score 8-2 but leaving the Mets just one out to work with. What followed was the most dramatic eighth inning at the end of June I think I've ever seen. Todd Zeile singled to bring home Piazza. Jay Payton singled. Kerry Ligtenberg entered the game for the Braves and walked the next three batters, Benny Agbayani, Mark Johnson and Melvin Mora, making the score 8-5. Terry Mulholland entered and walked Bell, bringing in another run. An Alfonzo single tied the game and brought Piazza to the plate for a second time in the inning, this time with two men on base. Mike then electrified the crowd, the bench and play-by-play man Gary Thorne by driving the ball over the left field wall to put the Mets ahead, 11-8, pumping his fist as he jogged to first.
The Mets didn't wind up catching the Braves in the division that year, though they did outlast them in the postseason after winning the Wild Card. But that game was some of the most fun I've ever had watching a game of baseball on television. Piazza provided a lot of fun moments in his nearly eight years in New York. He is the greatest offensive player in the history of the franchise and if his is the second theoretically blue and orange cap to adorn a plaque in Cooperstown, it will be a fitting honor.
*Fun fact: Cammack pitched so badly that even though the Mets took the lead after the inning that he pitched, he was not awarded the win by the official scorer. Armando Benitez, who pitched the ninth in what would otherwise have been a save situation, was.
Piazza's prodigious power was and remains his calling card, but to focus merely on the long ball underestimates how well rounded his offensive game was. The greatest home run-hitting catcher in the game's history also put up a career .307 batting average and a .377 OBP to go along with his .545 slugging percentage. His career OPS+ of 142 ranks 61st all time, tied with hitters like Miguel Cabrera, Todd Helton and Gary Sheffield and ahead of Ken Griffey Jr., Reggie Jackson and David Ortiz. Piazza managed to rank in the top ten in OPS in the National League five times in the 90s despite playing the most demanding defensive position on the diamond in two of the toughest parks in which to hit in the league.
And, yes, he hit 427 home runs, 396 of them as a catcher and six more in the postseason. There were plenty of memorable shots among those. There was the two-run blast to center in the bottom of the eighth on September 21, 2001, to give the Mets the lead over the Braves in their first home game after the attacks of ten days prior. There was the solo shot to right in the first inning on May 5, 2004, that broke Carlton Fisk's record for home runs by a catcher and which I was lucky enough to witness live. But the one that stands out in my memory today took place on a Friday night at Shea in 2000.
The Mets entered June 30th trailing the first place Braves by three games, having had a seven-game winning streak snapped by Atlanta a day earlier. The pitching matchup featured Mike Hampton for the Mets and Kevin Millwood for the Braves. Both went seven innings, but Millwood allowed just one run while Hampton was knocked around for five. Reliever Eric Cammack entered in the top of the eighth for the Mets and gave up two walks before Brian Jordan stepped to the plate and smacked a three-run home run to put the score at 8-1 in favor of the Braves. Cammack finished the top of the eighth*, bringing the heart of the Mets' lineup to the plate, beginning with two hitter Derek Bell.
Bell singled to center but Edgardo Alfonzo flied out. Piazza singled and went to second on a throwing error, putting runners on second and third for Robin Ventura. Ventura grounded out, driving in a run to make the score 8-2 but leaving the Mets just one out to work with. What followed was the most dramatic eighth inning at the end of June I think I've ever seen. Todd Zeile singled to bring home Piazza. Jay Payton singled. Kerry Ligtenberg entered the game for the Braves and walked the next three batters, Benny Agbayani, Mark Johnson and Melvin Mora, making the score 8-5. Terry Mulholland entered and walked Bell, bringing in another run. An Alfonzo single tied the game and brought Piazza to the plate for a second time in the inning, this time with two men on base. Mike then electrified the crowd, the bench and play-by-play man Gary Thorne by driving the ball over the left field wall to put the Mets ahead, 11-8, pumping his fist as he jogged to first.
The Mets didn't wind up catching the Braves in the division that year, though they did outlast them in the postseason after winning the Wild Card. But that game was some of the most fun I've ever had watching a game of baseball on television. Piazza provided a lot of fun moments in his nearly eight years in New York. He is the greatest offensive player in the history of the franchise and if his is the second theoretically blue and orange cap to adorn a plaque in Cooperstown, it will be a fitting honor.
*Fun fact: Cammack pitched so badly that even though the Mets took the lead after the inning that he pitched, he was not awarded the win by the official scorer. Armando Benitez, who pitched the ninth in what would otherwise have been a save situation, was.
Give 'em the heat, meat
Daniel Cabrera is pitching tonight for the O's and Stanley recently noted Cabrera seems to be taking the advice about pounding the strike zone. So, I took a look at Cabrera's stats on Fangraphs and I think they're telling.
Cabrera is throwing 87% fastballs, by far the highest percentage of his career. His career average is 73.5%. His fastball is averaging 93.1 mph, the lowest mark of his career (lifetime average 94.7). He is using his slider and curveball far less and mixing in more changeups. He's also throwing all 3 of those pitches with less velocity. His K/9 are down by nearly 2, but his BB/9 also are down by close to 2.
Baltimore is among the better defensive teams in the AL and Cabrera is benefiting from a .240 BABIP. That number could indicate some good luck for Cabrera, but it also could be the result of throwing strikes and letting his defense do some work behind him. It seems reasonable to believe that BABIP can be influenced some by getting hitters to swing in pitchers' counts rather than hitters' counts.
Cabrera is throwing 87% fastballs, by far the highest percentage of his career. His career average is 73.5%. His fastball is averaging 93.1 mph, the lowest mark of his career (lifetime average 94.7). He is using his slider and curveball far less and mixing in more changeups. He's also throwing all 3 of those pitches with less velocity. His K/9 are down by nearly 2, but his BB/9 also are down by close to 2.
Baltimore is among the better defensive teams in the AL and Cabrera is benefiting from a .240 BABIP. That number could indicate some good luck for Cabrera, but it also could be the result of throwing strikes and letting his defense do some work behind him. It seems reasonable to believe that BABIP can be influenced some by getting hitters to swing in pitchers' counts rather than hitters' counts.
My, my Myers
I've never bought into the "Brett Myers is gonna be a stud starter" idea, although he should be better than what he's shown this year. Maybe he can't get used to be a starter again after enjoying the closer role so much last season.
Looking at his stats, his K/9 is 7.58 (career average 7.54), his BB/9 is 3.19 (3.17) and his K/BB is 2.38 (2.38). His LOB% is 72.5 (73.8). Here's where it gets dicey: His HR/9 is 2.28 (1.34) and his BABIP is .335 (.304).
Throwing out his breakdown stats from last season because he was primarily a reliever, Myers is throwing fewer cutters and curveballs and more sliders this year. Plus, as widely discussed, the velocity on his fastball is down a bit. Interestingly, his velocity on other pitches is in line with previous seasons.
Is Myers worrying too much about his fastball and turning more to his slider? Is this putting him in bad counts and contributing to his high HR figure? Worth considering.
Looking at his stats, his K/9 is 7.58 (career average 7.54), his BB/9 is 3.19 (3.17) and his K/BB is 2.38 (2.38). His LOB% is 72.5 (73.8). Here's where it gets dicey: His HR/9 is 2.28 (1.34) and his BABIP is .335 (.304).
Throwing out his breakdown stats from last season because he was primarily a reliever, Myers is throwing fewer cutters and curveballs and more sliders this year. Plus, as widely discussed, the velocity on his fastball is down a bit. Interestingly, his velocity on other pitches is in line with previous seasons.
Is Myers worrying too much about his fastball and turning more to his slider? Is this putting him in bad counts and contributing to his high HR figure? Worth considering.
Thursday, May 15, 2008
Bizarro world
Detroit 16-24
Seattle 16-26
Colorado 15-25
San Diego 15-26
St. Louis 24-18
Florida 23-17
Tampa Bay 23-17
Baltimore 21-19
Could have won a lot of bets by forecasting these records.
Seattle 16-26
Colorado 15-25
San Diego 15-26
St. Louis 24-18
Florida 23-17
Tampa Bay 23-17
Baltimore 21-19
Could have won a lot of bets by forecasting these records.
In for a Penny, In for a Pound?
Anyone following the Orioles this season has noticed that Daniel Cabrera (4-1, 3.58 ERA) has pitched effectively through 9 starts. The following table reflects Daniel Cabrera's career numbers (including 2008) against his 2008 numbers (through 9 starts).
| TimeFrame | IP/Start | ERA | WHIP | BB/9 | K/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Career | 5.77 | 4.88 | 1.51 | 5.14 | 7.4 |
| 2008 | 6.7 | 3.58 | 1.23 | 3.58 | 5.52 |
The difference thus far in 2008 is that Cabrera is throwing strikes. In early April, when asked what he wanted from Cabrera, O's manager Dave Trembley said, "He needs to consistently repeat his delivery, use his fastball and pound the strike zone. I mean pound it. Pound it!"
Cabrera's K/9 is down along with ERA, WHIP and BB/9, however, if he keeps throwing strikes, the K/9 will edge back up. What he has (hopefully) learned, or is learning, is what all good ML pitchers know. While the great ones strike out many batters, a good pitcher pounds the strike zone with such consistency that every batter knows, upon stepping into the box, that he must swing the bat. The good pitcher then pounds the strike zone, allowing the fretsome batsmen to strike out.
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
2-out hits
I don't know if the number of 2-out hits allowed with RISP is a factor in a team's success, or lack thereof, but it would seem to make sense. If you can limit scoring by getting out of innings when the opportunity is there, you would think you should be in better shape than others. Obviously, hits dropping in can be the product of luck, so this probably can't accurately determine the effectiveness of a staff, but it seemed worth a look.
The Tigers have given up 54 hits with 2 outs and RISP; only Colorado, with 56, is worse in MLB. Furthermore, Detroit only has 22 strikeouts in those situations, the worst in MLB. This would seem significant to me.
Cleveland has yielded the lowest number of hits with 2 outs and RISP, with 24. Toronto (28), Baltimore (29) and the Cubs (30) and Rays (30) follow. Of that group, only Toronto has a losing record, and the Blue Jays' ERA is 3.56, which is fourth best in MLB.
Joining Detroit and Colorado in the bottom 5 are Pittsburgh, Texas, and the White Sox.
The Tigers have given up 54 hits with 2 outs and RISP; only Colorado, with 56, is worse in MLB. Furthermore, Detroit only has 22 strikeouts in those situations, the worst in MLB. This would seem significant to me.
Cleveland has yielded the lowest number of hits with 2 outs and RISP, with 24. Toronto (28), Baltimore (29) and the Cubs (30) and Rays (30) follow. Of that group, only Toronto has a losing record, and the Blue Jays' ERA is 3.56, which is fourth best in MLB.
Joining Detroit and Colorado in the bottom 5 are Pittsburgh, Texas, and the White Sox.
Right is wrong
One (or do I mean another) reason for the Tigers' struggles this season seems like it can be traced to the predominantly right-handed lineup struggling against right-handed pitching.
Magglio Ordonez's .833 OPS against righties is the tops among RHB (not counting switch-hitters). Brandon Inge, who sees more time in the dugout than on the field now, is the only other RHB above .800, checking in at .803. Miguel Cabrera is next, at .764.
Ordonez's career OPS vs. RHP is .874, Cabrera's is .902, Pudge Rodriguez's is .806, Gary Sheffield's is .905.
Against left-handed pitching, Edgar Renteria, Ordonez, Marcus Thames and Cabrera all have an OPS above 1.000. Unfortunately, only 14.5% of the team's at-bats have been against lefties so far this season, so it's a very small sample. Last season, 23% of at-bats were against LHP.
The more I write about this team, the more it becomes clear: A lot of stuff is wrong.
Magglio Ordonez's .833 OPS against righties is the tops among RHB (not counting switch-hitters). Brandon Inge, who sees more time in the dugout than on the field now, is the only other RHB above .800, checking in at .803. Miguel Cabrera is next, at .764.
Ordonez's career OPS vs. RHP is .874, Cabrera's is .902, Pudge Rodriguez's is .806, Gary Sheffield's is .905.
Against left-handed pitching, Edgar Renteria, Ordonez, Marcus Thames and Cabrera all have an OPS above 1.000. Unfortunately, only 14.5% of the team's at-bats have been against lefties so far this season, so it's a very small sample. Last season, 23% of at-bats were against LHP.
The more I write about this team, the more it becomes clear: A lot of stuff is wrong.
Just Enough to Win the Turkey
Randy Johnson, the Diamondbacks "Big Unit", stretched out for 5 IP last night to record his 287th victory. By comparison, the Yankees Wang slung a full 7 but recorded a no-decision.
"I'll play first, third, left. I'll play anywhere - except Philadelphia." - Dick Allen
Aaahhhh, Dick jokes.
"Do you date immature men?" - Jerry Seinfield
"I'll play first, third, left. I'll play anywhere - except Philadelphia." - Dick Allen
Aaahhhh, Dick jokes.
"Do you date immature men?" - Jerry Seinfield
Luxurious
The Orioles had not hit a 3-run home run all season until last Thursday against Kansas City. Luke Scott blasted a 3-run shot in the 3rd inning off of Josh Beckett last night to give the O's a 5-3 lead on their way to a 5-4 victory over the Red Sox.
It was the 4th 3-run homer for the O's in the last 5 games with Nick Markakis, Aubrey Huff, Kevin Millar and Luke Scott providing the big blows.
The Orioles are 4-0 in the games in which they've hit a 3-run home run.
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