I can understand Mets fans being disappointed about the Milledge trade, but only from the standpoint that they didn't get a much-needed pitcher in return. But I think they're over-rating Milledge and under-rating Church. I think Church will be a solid player for the Mets and should improve in NY's lineup and ballpark.
Church slugged .506 away from RFK, which according to ESPN's ballpark factor ratings was the most difficult in which to hit homers -- about 33 percent tougher than neutral. Church won't turn 30 until next October and should be in his prime. I could foresee him putting up numbers like .280-20-90 with the Mets next season if he gets 500 AB.
Milledge is much younger and could still develop into a star, but I've never been too high on him. He'll need to mature as a hitter, and given his personality to date, he doesn't seem like the maturing type. I don't think you can put him in the offensive category of Delmon Young, which is what it took to get Matt Garza from the Twins, so the market to pry away pitching is tough.
2 comments:
Thank you.
Let me just give you a couple other names:
Gregg Jefferies
Alex Ochoa
Jay Payton
Bill Pulsipher
Milledge will fit in nicely
In 2006 Church slugged .585 at RFK and .471 on the road. In 2005 it was .462 at home, .472 on the road. Of course it'll be easier for him to hit in Shea than RFK, but the same would be true of Milledge. I don't disagree that Church will probably be solid for a couple of years, but guys who play their first full major league season at age twenty-eight don't tend to have long, productive careers.
As for Milledge's maturation, we'll have to wait and see--and believe me, I will be keeping track. But I think the progression of his striekout-to-walk ratio this year--10:2 in July, 24:5 in August, 8:6 in September--bodes well and says a lot more about his playing ability than overblown controversies about rap music and fancy handshakes. I'll just keep a spot open among Amos Otis, Kevin Mitchell, Lenny Dykstra and Jeff Kent for him.
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