Rowand by the bay

Aaron Rowand is reportedly going to get 5 years, $60 million from the Giants, so his days in Philly are officially over, much to the chagrin of a number of Phillies fans. From the early reports, fans in Philly -- as well as Chicago -- are upset their teams didn't sign Rowand.

Congrats to Aaron for parlaying his career year into a windfall. But in my opinion, there's no way the Phils should be criticized for not going 5 years on Rowand. He's 30, but seems older to me. At this point in his career, he compares to Troy O'Leary. (More below.) His defense is good, but not outstanding. His range-zone rating on Hardball Times was 6th among NL centerfielders. He was second to Andruw Jones in out-of-zone plays, but not much ahead of Chris B. Young, Carlos Beltran or Juan Pierre.

His numbers are sure to drop with the move from the Zen to San Fran. His home numbers in 2007 were .319/.380/.557 while his road stats were .299/.368/.475. He hit 17 of his 27 HR in the Zen and I would figure he probably hits around 7 at home in 2008 in San Fran, where he's slugged .393 in 7 career games.

Rowand's stolen base numbers have dropped annually from a high of 17 in 2004 to 6 last season.

If the Phils could have signed Rowand for three years at a higher annual salary, it probably would have been worthwhile. But 5 years is too many.

Now, here's the O'Leary comparison:

AB: O'Leary 2709, Rowand 2664
BA: Rowand .286, O'Leary .283
OBP: Rowand .343, O'Leary .338
SLG: O'Leary .469, Rowand .462
OPS+: Rowand 106, O'Leary 104

Again, I'm not sure what this truly means, but it might provide perspective, I think. Of course, it doesn't take into account the always valuable "clubhouse presence" factor.

Rowand's career 162-game average season is .286-18-66. Shane Victorino figures to take over as the everyday CF in Philly; his career 162-game average season is .274-10-49. He will be 27 and is a much less financial burden.