Should the Mets be willing to part with Jose Reyes to get Johan Santana? NY is apparently unwilling. I don't follow the Mets closely, but it seems to me Reyes for Santana is reasonable. Of course, I root for a team that's traded anything not nailed down, so maybe I'm just freewheeling.
Here are the win share stats for Reyes and Santana, with their MLB rank at their positions, going back to 2004 courtesy of Hardball Times.
2004: Santana 27 (1)
2005: Santana 23 (3)
2006: Santana 25 (1)
2007: Santana 18 (12)
2004: Reyes 5 (38)
2005: Reyes 17 (12)
2006: Reyes 29 (2)
2007: Reyes 24 (5)
The concern would be whether Santana's 15-13, 3.33 ERA and 1.07 WHIP "down year" in 2007 will become the norm as he reaches 29. Also, whether you believe Reyes, in his mid-20s, will still develop into a consistently dynamic game-changing player.
Santana's ERA+ last season was 130 and his career mark is 141. The nearest comparable pitchers through the age of 28 are Tim Hudson, Roy Oswalt, and John Candelaria according to baseball-reference.com.
Reyes OPS+ was 103 last season and his career mark is 97. The nearest comparable modern hitters through age 24 are Edgar Renteria, Jim Fergosi, Garry Templeton and Gregg Jefferies.
If you believe OPS+ and ERA+ are good measuring sticks, then Santana is the better value. Santana could still regularly be one of the three best pitchers in the game, if not the best. Reyes will have to improve to become the best SS in the game, much less one of the top three hitters. So I would give up Reyes for Santana, but I can understand why Mets' fans might be reluctant.
Also, I'll admit I don't know what the Mets have in the way of replacing Reyes, which would be a factor. If the dropoff is significant, it could counteract the benefit of adding Santana.
2 comments:
Santana may be the better player, but I don't think you can call him the better value. Reyes is signed to a very reasonable contract that runs through 2010. Santana is signed for one year after which he'll be signing a contract so long and expensive that even he might not be worth it. Money means a lot less to the Mets than to most other teams, but even they need some young, reasonably priced starters to keep their payroll within reason. Taking age, contract status, defense and baserunning into account, I think Reyes is one of the most valuable commodities in the game. One year of Johan Santana is not nearly enough return for me to consider giving him up.
As for potential replacements for Reyes, the Mets would have to turn to Ruben Gotay, who can't play shortstop, or Anderson Hernandez, who can't hit. If the Mets want to give up the likes of Carlos Gomez, Mike Pelfrey and Philip Humber for Santana, I'm all for it. If he makes it to free agency next year and they want to give him a contract that will make Barry Zito jealous, I'm all for that, too. But giving up Reyes would be a huge mistake.
Fair enough. The Mets would have to sign Santana if they trade for him, just like Detroit will need to do with Cabrera. I just think player-for-player, it's an interesting choice. I'd go for Santana, but I have no attachment to the Mets or Reyes, either.
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