I still don't believe in Dontrelle Willis. I'm not convinced Andrew Miller won't be as good if not better (or that one of the other three arms the Tigers parted with might, as well). I'm also not convinced the Tigers improved themselves in the ways they need to improve for 2008.
But if I view this deal piece for piece as essentially 1) Miguel Cabrera for Cameron Maybin and Mike Rabelo; and 2) Willis for Andrew Miller and throw ins, then I have to say advantage Tigers.
Starting with the pitching, Miller might end up being the lefty version of Carlos Zambrano, as Baseball Prospectus suggested entering this season, but this is probably a push -- at least for the next year or two. I can live with that, I guess.
From a hitting standpoint, Maybin might be a future superstar, but Cabrera IS a superstar. I have no problem with this aspect of the deal. According to baseball-reference.com, the most similar player to Cabrera historically through the age of 24 is Hank Aaron. I don't know that this means much, but it's fun to look at.
Cabrera and Aaron both had 5 seasons in the books at 24. Aaron had 732 games, Cabrera is at 720. Aaron had 2,895 ABs while Cabrera has 2,694. Here are the numbers:
BA: Aaron .316, Cabrera .313
HR: Aaron 140, Cabrera 138
RBI: Cabrera 523, Aaron 494
R: Aaron 496, Cabrera 449
OBP: Cabrera .388, Aaron .365
SLG: Aaron .543, Cabrera .542
OPS+: Aaron 145, Cabrera 143
Aaron already had an MVP Award by 24. Cabrera has two 5th-place finishes.
I'm pretty sure that no matter how good Maybin is, he won't be Hank Aaron through the age of 24. Other players Cabrera compares to at his age include Ken Griffey Jr., Frank Robinson, Orlando Cepeda, Joe Medwick, Al Kaline, Mickey Mantle, Vlad Guerrero.
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