The Tigers have given up 13 runs this season, 11 of which scored in the 6th inning or later.
Only 3 of the runs have been charged to the bullpen, although the relievers have allowed 3 of 8 inherited runners to score.
Detroit has 3 HR this season, all solo.
Since the start of the 2004 season, Nate Robertson has allowed just 8 HR against left-handed hitters. Mariano Rivera (5) and Mike Timlin (7) are the only pitchers to permit fewer.
Dontrelle Willis faces Gavin Floyd in a FOX telecast Saturday. Sounds like runs.
Miguel Cabrera should be back in the lineup today at DH. Brandon Inge will play 3B and Clete Thomas will be in CF.
Jim Leyland says Gary Sheffield's injured finger should not land Shef on the DL.
Inge, who people worried about being disgruntled after losing his job to Cabrera, has started all 3 games this season and is one of the few Tigers worthy of praise thus far.
I was surprised Leyland dropped Edgar Renteria from leadoff to 7th yesterday and put Thomas in the No. 1 spot. Renteria had 3 hits the previous day. It was Thomas' first career start.
Friday, April 04, 2008
Thursday, April 03, 2008
Broom me
No one is shocked to see a sweep in Detroit to open the season. Except few figured it would be the Royals doing the broom work. Another day, another lack of production. At least today the Tigs got on the board thanks to a solo HR by Brandon Inge.
Detroit scored 1 run over the final 21 innings of the series. Jeremy Bonderman pitched well for a while, but gave up a 2-run HR to Alex Gordon in the 4th and was charged with four runs total. The Tigers were without Miguel Cabrera because of a quadriceps strain.
It's a long season, so there's no need to panic. But the outcome of this series is surprising because you had to figure Detroit realistically takes 2 out of 3 at home. So, I'd say the Tigers are -2 on the expectation scale.
Next is 3 at Comerica against the White Sox and then 3 in Boston.
Detroit scored 1 run over the final 21 innings of the series. Jeremy Bonderman pitched well for a while, but gave up a 2-run HR to Alex Gordon in the 4th and was charged with four runs total. The Tigers were without Miguel Cabrera because of a quadriceps strain.
It's a long season, so there's no need to panic. But the outcome of this series is surprising because you had to figure Detroit realistically takes 2 out of 3 at home. So, I'd say the Tigers are -2 on the expectation scale.
Next is 3 at Comerica against the White Sox and then 3 in Boston.
Wednesday, April 02, 2008
This was fun for about a day
Only the Mets could find a way to outscore their opponents twenty-four to seven over three games and come out feeling like losers. Yes, the Mets' offense thoroughly pounded what passes for major league pitching in the Florida Marlins organization. And yes, the Mets got a good first start from their big offseason acquisition and an even better one from their talented but inconsistent third starter. But who cares? Pedro's hurt again.
After making it though five fall starts, the whole offseason and all of Spring Training with his arm intact, Pedro Martinez was felled by a strained hamstring less than four innings into his 2008 season. He'll be out for at least a month and probably more. For the moment the task of replacing him will fall to Nelson Figueroa who, prior to tonight, hadn't pitched in the majors since 2004. Orlando Hernandez could help if he ever figures out how to throw the ball to the plate without his foot hurting him. And all of this is dependent on Mike Pelfrey pitching well enough to stay in the majors. Johan Santana, Oliver Perez and John Maine still make for a pretty formidable trio, but beyond them, the Mets' rotation is looking rather fragile.
Fortunately the Mets' offense looks capable of picking up some of the slack in the absence of dependable pitching. Every Met regular, aside from Carlos Delgado, had a good series with the bat. David Wright, with six hits including three doubles and one home run, and Carlos Beltran, with five doubles including one that would have been a home run if not for some overzealous umpiring, led the way. In total the Mets hit .330/.409/.486 in the three games. If they can keep up this success once they face a pitching staff whose total salaries are greater than what Santana will make this year, they should be in good shape.
The Mets (2-1) will take on slightly tougher competition starting Friday as they head to Atlanta for a weekend series against the Braves (1-2). John Maine (15-10, 3.91 in 2007), Mike Pelfrey (3-8, 5.57 in 2007) and Johan Santana (1-0, 2.57) will start for the Mets. Tim Hudson (0-0, 2.57), Tom Glavine (1/3 IP, 7 runs...um...I mean, 0-0, 1.80) and John Smoltz (14-8, 3.11) will go for Atlanta. This is, of course, assuming that none of them are forced to start on Thursday when scheduled starter Mike Hampton unexpectedly contracts polio during warmups.
After making it though five fall starts, the whole offseason and all of Spring Training with his arm intact, Pedro Martinez was felled by a strained hamstring less than four innings into his 2008 season. He'll be out for at least a month and probably more. For the moment the task of replacing him will fall to Nelson Figueroa who, prior to tonight, hadn't pitched in the majors since 2004. Orlando Hernandez could help if he ever figures out how to throw the ball to the plate without his foot hurting him. And all of this is dependent on Mike Pelfrey pitching well enough to stay in the majors. Johan Santana, Oliver Perez and John Maine still make for a pretty formidable trio, but beyond them, the Mets' rotation is looking rather fragile.
Fortunately the Mets' offense looks capable of picking up some of the slack in the absence of dependable pitching. Every Met regular, aside from Carlos Delgado, had a good series with the bat. David Wright, with six hits including three doubles and one home run, and Carlos Beltran, with five doubles including one that would have been a home run if not for some overzealous umpiring, led the way. In total the Mets hit .330/.409/.486 in the three games. If they can keep up this success once they face a pitching staff whose total salaries are greater than what Santana will make this year, they should be in good shape.
The Mets (2-1) will take on slightly tougher competition starting Friday as they head to Atlanta for a weekend series against the Braves (1-2). John Maine (15-10, 3.91 in 2007), Mike Pelfrey (3-8, 5.57 in 2007) and Johan Santana (1-0, 2.57) will start for the Mets. Tim Hudson (0-0, 2.57), Tom Glavine (1/3 IP, 7 runs...um...I mean, 0-0, 1.80) and John Smoltz (14-8, 3.11) will go for Atlanta. This is, of course, assuming that none of them are forced to start on Thursday when scheduled starter Mike Hampton unexpectedly contracts polio during warmups.
Offensive
If today was any indication, it's clear why the Tigers needed to acquire Edgar Renteria. He produced the only hits for Detroit this afternoon in a 4-0 loss. Renteria was 3-for-4 while the rest of the lineup took the collar (with 8 K and 1 BB) against Brian Bannister and two relievers. Bannister's dominance no doubt stems from his embracing sabermetrics.Kenny Rogers pitched well for the Tigers, giving up 2 runs in 6 IP. He fanned 4 and walked 1. Once again, though, KC came through with two-out hits. All 4 runs scored after two were away.
Opening the season by losing the first series to the Royals isn't exactly the way you want to break from the gate.
It can leave you feeling small.
Talk of the town
Who said it?
"It's going to be a self-fulfilled prophecy. You guys are going to write about it. Everybody's going to wait until late in the game, a lead gets away, and everybody says, 'See? We told you.' The truth of the matter is all of the guys on this staff can get guys out or they wouldn't be here. These are the guys we've got. We're going to go with them. That's the way it's going to be. We need to embrace some of these guys instead of kick them."
That's Todd Jones in the Free Press. Just as easily could be Philly.
"It's going to be a self-fulfilled prophecy. You guys are going to write about it. Everybody's going to wait until late in the game, a lead gets away, and everybody says, 'See? We told you.' The truth of the matter is all of the guys on this staff can get guys out or they wouldn't be here. These are the guys we've got. We're going to go with them. That's the way it's going to be. We need to embrace some of these guys instead of kick them."
That's Todd Jones in the Free Press. Just as easily could be Philly.
Game note highlights
Here are some facts from the Tigers press notes for today's game against KC:
Kenny Rogers can move into a tie for 21st place for career wins among lefties with a victory today against KC.
Magglio Ordonez is 8 RBI shy of 1,000 in his career.
Pudge Rodriguez is 4 hits shy of 2,500.
Gary Sheffield needs 6 RBI to tie former Tigers star Al Kaline for 35th place on all time list, with 1,583.
Kenny Rogers can move into a tie for 21st place for career wins among lefties with a victory today against KC.
Magglio Ordonez is 8 RBI shy of 1,000 in his career.
Pudge Rodriguez is 4 hits shy of 2,500.
Gary Sheffield needs 6 RBI to tie former Tigers star Al Kaline for 35th place on all time list, with 1,583.
Tuesday, April 01, 2008
Finding relief
Phillies fans are already throwing in the towel because of the state of the team's bullpen. This led to a discussion with my brother about relievers.
Some of the fans and talking heads in Philly are blaming GM Pat Gillick for not buying help for the bullpen. I happen to agree with Gillick's philosophy of not giving long contracts or big deals to pitchers, particularly relievers, because they're so streaky. I opined that the best way to build a bullpen was from within, coupled with lucky low-risk pickups, like the Phils got with J.C. Romero last year.
After thinking about it a little more, I came to the conclusion that chasing help can be extremely difficult. Look at the Orioles last season, just as an example. Furthermore, the recently successful teams in the AL (which is where I limited my thought process being a Tigers' fan) pretty much all have relievers that pitched only for them during their careers.
Consider Mariano Rivera in New York, Jonathan Papelbon in Boston, Huston Street in Oakland, Francisco Rodriguez in Anaheim, Bobby Jenks in Chicago, J.J. Putz in Seattle.
Cleveland got 45 saves (and 5.07 ERA) from journeyman Joe Borowski last season, which bucks the trend to a degree, but the Tribes' key reliever Rafael Betancourt fits the profile. When the Tigers reached the World Series in 2006, it was with well-traveled Todd Jones as the closer, but Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya were the heart of the pen.
Minnesota's Joe Nathan came over in a trade from San Francisco, but he had only 1 save in four seasons by the Bay.
I'm not sure there is anything to this quick analysis, but it does seem to suggest it's worth consideration.
Some of the fans and talking heads in Philly are blaming GM Pat Gillick for not buying help for the bullpen. I happen to agree with Gillick's philosophy of not giving long contracts or big deals to pitchers, particularly relievers, because they're so streaky. I opined that the best way to build a bullpen was from within, coupled with lucky low-risk pickups, like the Phils got with J.C. Romero last year.
After thinking about it a little more, I came to the conclusion that chasing help can be extremely difficult. Look at the Orioles last season, just as an example. Furthermore, the recently successful teams in the AL (which is where I limited my thought process being a Tigers' fan) pretty much all have relievers that pitched only for them during their careers.
Consider Mariano Rivera in New York, Jonathan Papelbon in Boston, Huston Street in Oakland, Francisco Rodriguez in Anaheim, Bobby Jenks in Chicago, J.J. Putz in Seattle.
Cleveland got 45 saves (and 5.07 ERA) from journeyman Joe Borowski last season, which bucks the trend to a degree, but the Tribes' key reliever Rafael Betancourt fits the profile. When the Tigers reached the World Series in 2006, it was with well-traveled Todd Jones as the closer, but Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya were the heart of the pen.
Minnesota's Joe Nathan came over in a trade from San Francisco, but he had only 1 save in four seasons by the Bay.
I'm not sure there is anything to this quick analysis, but it does seem to suggest it's worth consideration.
Game 1 is no fun
Thoughts from Opening Day:
Some in Detroit already have the sky falling. There’s no doubt the Tigers let one get away, but these things will happen over 162 games. It’s only more noticeable because it’s Game 1.
Miguel Cabrera made a throwing error on the first ball he handled, but later made his first hit a HR. This, in a nutshell, is what many projected.
Brandon Inge’s two-out BB in the second inning set up Edgar Renteria’s RBI single to give Detroit a 1-0 lead. Inge also threw out a runner at the plate in the 11th from CF.
Magglio Ordonez got thrown out at home in the third to end the inning. I didn’t see the game, so I’m not sure if it was a good move to send him. But my general thought is with two outs you go for it and force the defense make the play.
Justin Verlander fizzled after being tough early. He gave up a 2-run HR in the sixth and then walked the leadoff man in the seventh, followed by a single to make it first and third. Jason Grilli and Aquilino Lopez gave up RBI singles and KC led 4-3. Tough situation for the pen with first and third and no outs, but you have to limit the damage to a run, I think; particularly when the second RBI hit came with two outs.
Denny Bautista let the leadoff man reach base in both the 10th and 11th. He escaped the 10th and looked like he could do the same in the 11th, but it wasn’t to be. Again, the big hit came with two outs.
Detroit got a runner to third with one out in the 11th, but Renteria K’d and Placido Polanco grounded out. I understand it was a nice stop by Gordon in the hole.
The Tigers had four doubles and two HR, but it wasn’t enough. They left 10 runners on base, which is too many for this lineup, but will happen from time to time.
Some in Detroit already have the sky falling. There’s no doubt the Tigers let one get away, but these things will happen over 162 games. It’s only more noticeable because it’s Game 1.
Miguel Cabrera made a throwing error on the first ball he handled, but later made his first hit a HR. This, in a nutshell, is what many projected.
Brandon Inge’s two-out BB in the second inning set up Edgar Renteria’s RBI single to give Detroit a 1-0 lead. Inge also threw out a runner at the plate in the 11th from CF.
Magglio Ordonez got thrown out at home in the third to end the inning. I didn’t see the game, so I’m not sure if it was a good move to send him. But my general thought is with two outs you go for it and force the defense make the play.
Justin Verlander fizzled after being tough early. He gave up a 2-run HR in the sixth and then walked the leadoff man in the seventh, followed by a single to make it first and third. Jason Grilli and Aquilino Lopez gave up RBI singles and KC led 4-3. Tough situation for the pen with first and third and no outs, but you have to limit the damage to a run, I think; particularly when the second RBI hit came with two outs.
Denny Bautista let the leadoff man reach base in both the 10th and 11th. He escaped the 10th and looked like he could do the same in the 11th, but it wasn’t to be. Again, the big hit came with two outs.
Detroit got a runner to third with one out in the 11th, but Renteria K’d and Placido Polanco grounded out. I understand it was a nice stop by Gordon in the hole.
The Tigers had four doubles and two HR, but it wasn’t enough. They left 10 runners on base, which is too many for this lineup, but will happen from time to time.
Sunday, March 30, 2008
A look at the Tigers
CATCHER: Not often do you see a team with only 1 catcher on its roster, but that’s what the Tigers have. Pudge Rodriguez will carry the load until Vance Wilson’s return. I’ve also read Pudge could bat leadoff in Curtis Granderson’s absence. I’m not in favor of this move. Pudge’s OBP was .294 last year and it’s been a while since he posted a solid OBP (.383 in 2004, fueled by a .334 BA). Pudge’s line for 2007 was .281/.294/.420. Hopefully his solid spring continues into the real season. His OPS+ last year was a below average 85. Brandon Inge, when not filling in for Granderson, will be the backup catcher until Wilson comes back.
FIRST BASE: Word out of camp is that Carlos Guillen has made a seamless transition from shortstop to first base. Infield coach Rafael Belliard says in the Free Press that Guillen’s defense compares favorable with former Gold Glove winner Andres Galaragga. Guillen batted .296/.357/.502 last season and could have a bigger year in 2008. His OPS+ last year was 123. Guillen is an upgrade over Sean Casey, who was .296/.353/.393 (OPS+ 96). Marcus Thames will be the backup. Thames batted .242/.278/.498 (OPS+ 99) last season and provides power off the bench, whether at 1B or LF.
SECOND BASE: Placido Polanco played errorless ball while batting .341/.388/.458 (OPS+ 122). He scored 105 runs from the No. 2 spot in the order. He puts the ball in play a lot, but only batted into 9 DPs, probably thanks to Granderson’s speed in front of him. Ryan Raburn, another super sub like Inge, can backup, as can Ramon Santiago. Raburn was terrific in 2007, with a line of .304/.340/.507 (OPS+ 119). Santiago is a superior defensive player, but batted .284/.324/.388 (OPS+ 87).
SHORTSTOP: Edgar Renteria takes over for Guillen. Renteria batted .332/.390/.470 (OPS+ 125) and would be my choice to bat leadoff in Granderson’s absence. Renteria’s previous AL experience was a disaster. Hopefully, that was a fluke. Santiago backs up here too.
THIRD BASE: Miguel Cabrera takes over the spot he should hold for the better part of the next decade. Cabrera is supposed to be in the best shape of his career, at least recent career, and is getting approval for his defense, which was thought to be a potential liability. There’s no doubt what Cabrera can do with the bat, as his .320/.401/.565 (OPS+ 150) line attests. Historically, he compares to Hank Aaron at his age. Only question is whether adjusting to a new league will be a hindrance. Inge will be his backup. Stellar with the glove, Inge batted .236/.312/.376 (OPS+ 80) last year. He had a nice spring and it would be good to see him return to his 2004 form of .287/.340/.453 (OPS+ 109).
LEFT FIELD: Craig Monroe saw the bulk of the time last year before being dealt. He was awful, going .222/.264/.373 (OPS+ 65). Enter Jacque Jones, who should see the bulk of the action, with Thames. Jones was .285/.335/.400 (OPS+ 87) for the Cubs last season. His 2007 numbers are not unlike 2004 and 2005, so Jones is probably not going to light it up. But he’s still an upgrade. If he returns to the .285/.334/.499 (OPS+ 108) in 2006, he’s huge. Lifetime, he’s .294/.342/.483 vs. RHP and .233/.281/.355 vs. LHP, which might suggest a platoon.
CENTER FIELD: Curtis Granderson had a historic season in 2007 and played terrific defense. His line was .302/.361/.552 (OPS+ 136) and he seems poised to be a star for several years to come. Of course, he needs to improve against LHP after going .218/.277/.395 last season. Inge will start in center until Granderson is ready to return from a broken finger.
RIGHT FIELD: Magglio Ordonez became the Tigers’ first batting champ since Norm Cash in 1961. Ordonez’s complete line was .363/.434/.595 (OPS+ 167). It would be unlikely Ordonez can repeat that season, but anything close would be nice. Now healthy, it’s reasonable to expect Ordonez to produce an OPS+ between 125 and 140, such as his prime days with the White Sox. Inge, Raburn or Thames will back up.
DESIGNATED HITTER: After a slow start, Gary Sheffield was a terror until a bum shoulder ruined him. If he’s healthy he will improve on his .265/.378/.462 (OPS+ 120), which isn’t shabby to begin with.
STARTING PITCHING: This is a scary stat – Justin Verlander (125) was the only Tigers’ starter with an ERA+ better than 100 (not counting Kenny Rogers’ 103). The two players nearest to 100 are no longer on the team, Chad Durbin and Jair Jurrjens (both 97). Verlander appears to be establishing himself as an ace. Rogers might be able to eek out another solid season. Jeremy Bonderman was hampered by arm woes and struggled through the second half. Nate Robertson never found consistency. Newcomer Dontrelle Willis is beset by control trouble. This could spell trouble. Much of the talk about the Tigers’ pitching has focused on the bullpen, which is a concern as well, but Detroit is going to need at least two pitchers to step up behind Verlander to make a postseason run. The potential is there, but there’s no guarantee.
RELIEF PITCHING: Todd Jones is back as the closer, which means no lead is comfortable. But we’ve lived through this before. Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya are on the sideline. But we’ve lived through this before. Lefty Bobby Seay was ridiculously good last season, holding left-handed hitters to a .201 BA and posting an ERA+ of 196. Tim Byrdak also had a good campaign, but was horrible this spring and got released. Zach Miner has proven to be a reliable middle man. Denny Bautista and Aquilino Lopez will need to continue their good springs and Yorman Bazardo could blossom. Aside from Jones, I feel the Leyland will be able to cobble together a workable bullpen with the arms available. I’m more confident in the pen, actually, than the starters at this point.
OUTLOOK: The pitching concerns might be offset by the offense. If the offense hits any slumps, though, it might spell big trouble unless the starters get it together. The Yankees led the AL with 968 runs last year while posting an OPS+ of 118. The Tigers OPS+ last season was 110 and they scored 887 runs. It would seem with Cabrera in the lineup, the squad should be able to get into the 950 range. The pitching, I suppose, should be no worse than last year, so any improvement in offense could be enough to push Detroit into the playoffs. If the pitching does improve, then the Tigers are a legit World Series team.
FIRST BASE: Word out of camp is that Carlos Guillen has made a seamless transition from shortstop to first base. Infield coach Rafael Belliard says in the Free Press that Guillen’s defense compares favorable with former Gold Glove winner Andres Galaragga. Guillen batted .296/.357/.502 last season and could have a bigger year in 2008. His OPS+ last year was 123. Guillen is an upgrade over Sean Casey, who was .296/.353/.393 (OPS+ 96). Marcus Thames will be the backup. Thames batted .242/.278/.498 (OPS+ 99) last season and provides power off the bench, whether at 1B or LF.
SECOND BASE: Placido Polanco played errorless ball while batting .341/.388/.458 (OPS+ 122). He scored 105 runs from the No. 2 spot in the order. He puts the ball in play a lot, but only batted into 9 DPs, probably thanks to Granderson’s speed in front of him. Ryan Raburn, another super sub like Inge, can backup, as can Ramon Santiago. Raburn was terrific in 2007, with a line of .304/.340/.507 (OPS+ 119). Santiago is a superior defensive player, but batted .284/.324/.388 (OPS+ 87).
SHORTSTOP: Edgar Renteria takes over for Guillen. Renteria batted .332/.390/.470 (OPS+ 125) and would be my choice to bat leadoff in Granderson’s absence. Renteria’s previous AL experience was a disaster. Hopefully, that was a fluke. Santiago backs up here too.
THIRD BASE: Miguel Cabrera takes over the spot he should hold for the better part of the next decade. Cabrera is supposed to be in the best shape of his career, at least recent career, and is getting approval for his defense, which was thought to be a potential liability. There’s no doubt what Cabrera can do with the bat, as his .320/.401/.565 (OPS+ 150) line attests. Historically, he compares to Hank Aaron at his age. Only question is whether adjusting to a new league will be a hindrance. Inge will be his backup. Stellar with the glove, Inge batted .236/.312/.376 (OPS+ 80) last year. He had a nice spring and it would be good to see him return to his 2004 form of .287/.340/.453 (OPS+ 109).
LEFT FIELD: Craig Monroe saw the bulk of the time last year before being dealt. He was awful, going .222/.264/.373 (OPS+ 65). Enter Jacque Jones, who should see the bulk of the action, with Thames. Jones was .285/.335/.400 (OPS+ 87) for the Cubs last season. His 2007 numbers are not unlike 2004 and 2005, so Jones is probably not going to light it up. But he’s still an upgrade. If he returns to the .285/.334/.499 (OPS+ 108) in 2006, he’s huge. Lifetime, he’s .294/.342/.483 vs. RHP and .233/.281/.355 vs. LHP, which might suggest a platoon.
CENTER FIELD: Curtis Granderson had a historic season in 2007 and played terrific defense. His line was .302/.361/.552 (OPS+ 136) and he seems poised to be a star for several years to come. Of course, he needs to improve against LHP after going .218/.277/.395 last season. Inge will start in center until Granderson is ready to return from a broken finger.
RIGHT FIELD: Magglio Ordonez became the Tigers’ first batting champ since Norm Cash in 1961. Ordonez’s complete line was .363/.434/.595 (OPS+ 167). It would be unlikely Ordonez can repeat that season, but anything close would be nice. Now healthy, it’s reasonable to expect Ordonez to produce an OPS+ between 125 and 140, such as his prime days with the White Sox. Inge, Raburn or Thames will back up.
DESIGNATED HITTER: After a slow start, Gary Sheffield was a terror until a bum shoulder ruined him. If he’s healthy he will improve on his .265/.378/.462 (OPS+ 120), which isn’t shabby to begin with.
STARTING PITCHING: This is a scary stat – Justin Verlander (125) was the only Tigers’ starter with an ERA+ better than 100 (not counting Kenny Rogers’ 103). The two players nearest to 100 are no longer on the team, Chad Durbin and Jair Jurrjens (both 97). Verlander appears to be establishing himself as an ace. Rogers might be able to eek out another solid season. Jeremy Bonderman was hampered by arm woes and struggled through the second half. Nate Robertson never found consistency. Newcomer Dontrelle Willis is beset by control trouble. This could spell trouble. Much of the talk about the Tigers’ pitching has focused on the bullpen, which is a concern as well, but Detroit is going to need at least two pitchers to step up behind Verlander to make a postseason run. The potential is there, but there’s no guarantee.
RELIEF PITCHING: Todd Jones is back as the closer, which means no lead is comfortable. But we’ve lived through this before. Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya are on the sideline. But we’ve lived through this before. Lefty Bobby Seay was ridiculously good last season, holding left-handed hitters to a .201 BA and posting an ERA+ of 196. Tim Byrdak also had a good campaign, but was horrible this spring and got released. Zach Miner has proven to be a reliable middle man. Denny Bautista and Aquilino Lopez will need to continue their good springs and Yorman Bazardo could blossom. Aside from Jones, I feel the Leyland will be able to cobble together a workable bullpen with the arms available. I’m more confident in the pen, actually, than the starters at this point.
OUTLOOK: The pitching concerns might be offset by the offense. If the offense hits any slumps, though, it might spell big trouble unless the starters get it together. The Yankees led the AL with 968 runs last year while posting an OPS+ of 118. The Tigers OPS+ last season was 110 and they scored 887 runs. It would seem with Cabrera in the lineup, the squad should be able to get into the 950 range. The pitching, I suppose, should be no worse than last year, so any improvement in offense could be enough to push Detroit into the playoffs. If the pitching does improve, then the Tigers are a legit World Series team.
The 2008 Mets: Pitchers
The Mets' pitching was in the middle of the National League pack in 2007. They allowed 750 runs, 4.63 per game, good for seventh best in the league and a completely average ERA+ of 100. They got off to a much better start than that, posting a team ERA of 2.96 in April, but that number rose every single month, all they way to 5.14 in September. Things were even worse in the final seventeen games as opposing teams hit .281/.356/.446 against Met pitching, adding up to a a 5.80 team ERA over that stretch. Interestingly, August and September were by far the Mets' two best months for strikeouts, but they were also the worst months for walks, hits and extra base hits allowed.
The 2008 edition will feature some new faces that will help keep a few runs off the board. First of all there's Ryan Church and Brian Schneider. The 2007 Mets were one of the best teams in the league at turning balls in play into outs, doing so 70.7% of the time, good for fourth in the majors. This year the Mets have replaced two of their weaker fielders, Shawn Green and Paul Lo Duca, with a couple of guys who, if not spectacular, are at least good defenders. Church in particular should help out a starting rotation made up of mostly fly ball pitchers.
Of course, more importantly, the Mets have a couple of pretty good starting pitchers who weren't on last year's Opening Day roster. Taking the hill in the season opener will be two-time Cy Young Award-winner, three-time AL strikeout leader, perennial 200-inning pitcher and 2007 Gold Glover Johan Santana. Last year his ERA jumped all the way to 3.33, good for seventh best in the league, largely due to his allowing a few more home runs than usual. Other than that, it was the same old Santana: lots of innings, lots of strikeouts, not a lot of hits or walks. He has as good a chance as anyone to be the best pitcher in the National League this year.
A more intriguing story is the return of Pedro Martinez. Last year he returned from rotator cuff surgery in September and looked tremendous in five starts, posting a 2.57 ERA, 32 strikeouts and 7 walks in 28 innings. The question about Pedro is not whether he can still get major league hitters out. He clearly can. While his fastball is not what it once was, his array of pitches and intelligent approach are more than a match for any lineup he might face. All that remains in doubt is whether he can stay healthy, which we can't know for sure until he does or doesn't. But with the way he made it through those five starts last year and Spring Training this year, I am quite optimistic. He won't give the Mets 200 innings, but I am hopeful that he can make it through the season without his arm falling off. And if the Mets make it to September with Johan Santana and Pedro Martinez still standing atop their rotation, I think they can make it pretty far into October.
Those two might be the ones who'll strike fear into the hearts of October opponents, but numbers three and four won't exactly let those opponents stop and catch their breath. Oliver Perez had the second best season of his young career in 2007 with a 3.56 ERA, 174 strikeouts and 79 walks in 177 innings, making it through a full season for the first time since his dominant 2004. There was still some of the inconsistency that's plagued him since his breakout year, but 2007 was a big step forward from his awful 2005 and 2006 campaigns. He's been so all over the place the last four year that it's hard to know what to expect next. Was last year him settling in as an above average, but not elite, starter? Or was it a step toward regaining his 2004 form? A lot of dollars are riding on the answers to those question as Perez will be eligible for free agency at the end of this year. I would love to see him return either way, but the Mets will have several spots to fill after this season and only money with which to fill them. If Perez winds up too expensive for the Mets to retain, hopefully it's because his time with the team ended in a blaze of glory.
One pitcher who isn't going anywhere is John Maine, who won't be eligible for free agency until 2011. 2007 was the first time Maine spent a full season in the majors and it was largely a successful year. He put up a 3.91 ERA with 180 strikeouts and 75 walks in 191 innings. Only Tom Glavine pitched more innings for the 2007 Mets and his ERA was half a run higher than Maine's. But Maine was as culpable as anyone for the team's late season woes as he seemed to run out of gas late in the year. His ERA in the months of August and September was 6.14 in 11 starts. Eight shutout innings in his last start saved it from being over 7.00. He actually struck out more batters in either of those months than he had in any previous month, but his rates of hits and home runs allowed also went up and a greater percentage of his base runners came around to score. Perhaps the experience of pitching nearly 200 innings last year will lead to Maine having more in the tank as this season wears on. If he can pitch for a full season like he did for the first four months of 2007, the Mets could have a third (or fourth) stud on their hands.
It's at this point that things get a little dicey. As of right now the Mets haven't announced whether Orlando Hernandez or Mike Pelfrey will begin the season as their fifth starter, but it's a safe bet that both will get some starts this year. El Duque was very good when healthy last year, with a 3.72 ERA, 128 strikeouts and 64 walks in 147.2 innings. Pelfrey was bad, but got a little better as the season went on. Hernandez can't be expected to stay healthy for the whole season and the recent tinkering with his windup makes him even more of a question mark than usual, but he could be very effective when healthy. Pelfrey's had an awful Spring and is yet to have sustained success at the major league level, but he did improve his strikeout rate in the second half last year. If El Duque is really healthy, he's probably the better option right now. A little more time at AAA couldn't hurt Pelfrey. But whichever way the Mets go, at least they've got two starters standing between Omar Minaya and the Chan Ho Parks and Jason Vargases of the world.
A few Met relievers had very good years in 2007, namely Billy Wagner, Aaron Heilman and Pedro Feliciano. Unfortunately, the guys who ranked fourth and fifth in relief innings pitched were Guillermo Mota, who was uniformly awful, and Scott Schoeneweis, who turned every right-handed hitter into David Wright. Seriously, righties hitting against Schoeneweis had an OPS of .963, one point better than Wright's season mark. Joe Smith got off to a great start but then got smacked around pretty good. Jorge Sosa pitched well enough to be a decent fifth or sixth option out of the pen.
This year Wagner, Heilman, Feliciano, Schoeneweis and Sosa will be joined by the returning Duaner Sanchez, newcomer Matt Wise and probably one of Smith, Nelson Figueroa, Brian Stokes and Ricardo Rincon. The Mets should be able to cobble together a pretty good bullpen from that lot. As much as you can predict reliability from any reliever, Wagner, Heilman and Sosa will be what they have been. Feliciano should continue to be excellent, but if Willie Randolph ever fighures out that he can get both righties and lefties out while Schoeneweis should only ever pitch to lefties, they will both be more valuable for it. Wise should be a solid, if unspectacular, middle reliever. The biggest question is Sanchez. If he somehow regains his 2006 form, he will be a huge addition. But even if he does slightly less than that, he should be a valuable piece of the seventh and eighth inning puzzle. Overall, it looks like a solid collection of relievers, and the addition of Santana should lighten their workload a bit. But all we know for sure is that Willie Randolph will continue to use them in ways that beggar belief.
Of course not everything will go right for this pitching staff. Pedro, Perez and Maine won't all pitch two hundred innings while fulfilling every bit of their potential. But the Mets' starting rotation is such a talented group that they don't have to exceed expectations much to be one of the best staffs in the league. And if one or two guys does get a bit lucky or stay especially healthy, we could be watching something very special.
Overall, I think this is a very good team with a chance to be great. The offense is in the top third of the league and the pitching staff is even better. Johan Santana, David Wright and Carlos Beltran may the best in the league at their respective positions. Jose Reyes, Oliver Perez and John Maine may not have reached the upper limits of their abilities yet. This team could look quite different next year with Perez, Carlos Delgado, Pedro Martinez, Moises Alou and Orlando Hernandez all headed toward free agency. But the 2008 version of the Mets has as good a chance as any National League team of playing in the the World Series.
Official prediction: 95 wins.
The 2008 edition will feature some new faces that will help keep a few runs off the board. First of all there's Ryan Church and Brian Schneider. The 2007 Mets were one of the best teams in the league at turning balls in play into outs, doing so 70.7% of the time, good for fourth in the majors. This year the Mets have replaced two of their weaker fielders, Shawn Green and Paul Lo Duca, with a couple of guys who, if not spectacular, are at least good defenders. Church in particular should help out a starting rotation made up of mostly fly ball pitchers.
Of course, more importantly, the Mets have a couple of pretty good starting pitchers who weren't on last year's Opening Day roster. Taking the hill in the season opener will be two-time Cy Young Award-winner, three-time AL strikeout leader, perennial 200-inning pitcher and 2007 Gold Glover Johan Santana. Last year his ERA jumped all the way to 3.33, good for seventh best in the league, largely due to his allowing a few more home runs than usual. Other than that, it was the same old Santana: lots of innings, lots of strikeouts, not a lot of hits or walks. He has as good a chance as anyone to be the best pitcher in the National League this year.
A more intriguing story is the return of Pedro Martinez. Last year he returned from rotator cuff surgery in September and looked tremendous in five starts, posting a 2.57 ERA, 32 strikeouts and 7 walks in 28 innings. The question about Pedro is not whether he can still get major league hitters out. He clearly can. While his fastball is not what it once was, his array of pitches and intelligent approach are more than a match for any lineup he might face. All that remains in doubt is whether he can stay healthy, which we can't know for sure until he does or doesn't. But with the way he made it through those five starts last year and Spring Training this year, I am quite optimistic. He won't give the Mets 200 innings, but I am hopeful that he can make it through the season without his arm falling off. And if the Mets make it to September with Johan Santana and Pedro Martinez still standing atop their rotation, I think they can make it pretty far into October.
Those two might be the ones who'll strike fear into the hearts of October opponents, but numbers three and four won't exactly let those opponents stop and catch their breath. Oliver Perez had the second best season of his young career in 2007 with a 3.56 ERA, 174 strikeouts and 79 walks in 177 innings, making it through a full season for the first time since his dominant 2004. There was still some of the inconsistency that's plagued him since his breakout year, but 2007 was a big step forward from his awful 2005 and 2006 campaigns. He's been so all over the place the last four year that it's hard to know what to expect next. Was last year him settling in as an above average, but not elite, starter? Or was it a step toward regaining his 2004 form? A lot of dollars are riding on the answers to those question as Perez will be eligible for free agency at the end of this year. I would love to see him return either way, but the Mets will have several spots to fill after this season and only money with which to fill them. If Perez winds up too expensive for the Mets to retain, hopefully it's because his time with the team ended in a blaze of glory.
One pitcher who isn't going anywhere is John Maine, who won't be eligible for free agency until 2011. 2007 was the first time Maine spent a full season in the majors and it was largely a successful year. He put up a 3.91 ERA with 180 strikeouts and 75 walks in 191 innings. Only Tom Glavine pitched more innings for the 2007 Mets and his ERA was half a run higher than Maine's. But Maine was as culpable as anyone for the team's late season woes as he seemed to run out of gas late in the year. His ERA in the months of August and September was 6.14 in 11 starts. Eight shutout innings in his last start saved it from being over 7.00. He actually struck out more batters in either of those months than he had in any previous month, but his rates of hits and home runs allowed also went up and a greater percentage of his base runners came around to score. Perhaps the experience of pitching nearly 200 innings last year will lead to Maine having more in the tank as this season wears on. If he can pitch for a full season like he did for the first four months of 2007, the Mets could have a third (or fourth) stud on their hands.
It's at this point that things get a little dicey. As of right now the Mets haven't announced whether Orlando Hernandez or Mike Pelfrey will begin the season as their fifth starter, but it's a safe bet that both will get some starts this year. El Duque was very good when healthy last year, with a 3.72 ERA, 128 strikeouts and 64 walks in 147.2 innings. Pelfrey was bad, but got a little better as the season went on. Hernandez can't be expected to stay healthy for the whole season and the recent tinkering with his windup makes him even more of a question mark than usual, but he could be very effective when healthy. Pelfrey's had an awful Spring and is yet to have sustained success at the major league level, but he did improve his strikeout rate in the second half last year. If El Duque is really healthy, he's probably the better option right now. A little more time at AAA couldn't hurt Pelfrey. But whichever way the Mets go, at least they've got two starters standing between Omar Minaya and the Chan Ho Parks and Jason Vargases of the world.
A few Met relievers had very good years in 2007, namely Billy Wagner, Aaron Heilman and Pedro Feliciano. Unfortunately, the guys who ranked fourth and fifth in relief innings pitched were Guillermo Mota, who was uniformly awful, and Scott Schoeneweis, who turned every right-handed hitter into David Wright. Seriously, righties hitting against Schoeneweis had an OPS of .963, one point better than Wright's season mark. Joe Smith got off to a great start but then got smacked around pretty good. Jorge Sosa pitched well enough to be a decent fifth or sixth option out of the pen.
This year Wagner, Heilman, Feliciano, Schoeneweis and Sosa will be joined by the returning Duaner Sanchez, newcomer Matt Wise and probably one of Smith, Nelson Figueroa, Brian Stokes and Ricardo Rincon. The Mets should be able to cobble together a pretty good bullpen from that lot. As much as you can predict reliability from any reliever, Wagner, Heilman and Sosa will be what they have been. Feliciano should continue to be excellent, but if Willie Randolph ever fighures out that he can get both righties and lefties out while Schoeneweis should only ever pitch to lefties, they will both be more valuable for it. Wise should be a solid, if unspectacular, middle reliever. The biggest question is Sanchez. If he somehow regains his 2006 form, he will be a huge addition. But even if he does slightly less than that, he should be a valuable piece of the seventh and eighth inning puzzle. Overall, it looks like a solid collection of relievers, and the addition of Santana should lighten their workload a bit. But all we know for sure is that Willie Randolph will continue to use them in ways that beggar belief.
Of course not everything will go right for this pitching staff. Pedro, Perez and Maine won't all pitch two hundred innings while fulfilling every bit of their potential. But the Mets' starting rotation is such a talented group that they don't have to exceed expectations much to be one of the best staffs in the league. And if one or two guys does get a bit lucky or stay especially healthy, we could be watching something very special.
Overall, I think this is a very good team with a chance to be great. The offense is in the top third of the league and the pitching staff is even better. Johan Santana, David Wright and Carlos Beltran may the best in the league at their respective positions. Jose Reyes, Oliver Perez and John Maine may not have reached the upper limits of their abilities yet. This team could look quite different next year with Perez, Carlos Delgado, Pedro Martinez, Moises Alou and Orlando Hernandez all headed toward free agency. But the 2008 version of the Mets has as good a chance as any National League team of playing in the the World Series.
Official prediction: 95 wins.
Saturday, March 29, 2008
The 2008 Mets: Hitters
As you may have heard, the Mets' 2007 season did not end as well as they or their fans might have liked. It's hard to blame the team's offense for the historic collapse, though. In those fateful seventeen games when the Mets went from prohibitive pennant favorites to historical punchlines, the team scored 98 runs or 5.76 per game. They put a total of 804 runs on the board in 2007, 4.96 per game, good for fourth best in the National League. While the Mets' pitching has made most of the headlines this offseason, the bats should once again be among the league's best. Here's a look at the state of the offense, position-by-position.
Catcher
Met backstops hit .267/.309/.410 last year, around average for the league, as a big year from Ramon Castro (.291/.333/.567 in 141 AB) somewhat made up for Paul Lo Duca's decision to stop using steroids (.266/.307/.373 in 429 AB). That story will have to repeat itself in 2008 if the Mets are going to get any offensive production out of this position as Brian Schneider and his anemic bat step into the starting role. There's been talk of Castro getting significantly more playing time this year, but I'll believe that Willie Randolph will deviate from traditional starter/backup roles when I see it. The fact that Castro may begin the season on the disabled list with a strained hamstring won't help any.
Schneider and Castro are both signed through 2009 when both of them will turn thirty-three. That gives the Mets about nineteen months to come up with some sort of long term plan for this position as they don't seem to have one yet. After carelessly losing Jesus Flores to the Nationals in last year's Rule 5 Draft, the best minor league catchers in the Mets' system include thirty-five year-old Raul Casanova and eighteen year-old Francisco Peña. Peña may someday catch for the Mets, but he may be old enough to drink by the time he figures out the whole "hitting" thing as he hit just .210/.263/.283 in A-ball last year.
First Base
The parts of this preview that point toward good times ahead will show up any paragraph now. In the meantime, let's talk about Carlos Delgado. Delgado fell off a cliff in 2007, hitting .258/.333/.448. He lost a full hundred points from his 2006 slugging percentage and was well below average for a National League first baseman. He did have a couple of very good months, posting OPSes over .900 in July and September. Perhaps offseason elbow and wrist surgery led him to get off to a slow start and we can expect him to bounce back somewhat now that he's relatively healthy. But the chances of him being an elite first baseman or one of the three best offensive players on this team are pretty slim.
After this season the Mets will have to decide whether to pick up Delgado's option for 2009 or pay him $4 million to go away. Barring a miraculous comeback, this should not be a difficult decision. Seeing as the Mets don't have any reinforcements on the way from the minors or even any decent options to back up Delgado this year, their future plans likely involve throwing lots of money at Mark Teixeira.
Second Base
Met second basemen hit .278/.348/.405 in 2007, about average for the NL. Unfortunately, the Mets decided to dump the best bat they had at the position to make room for Fernando Tatis on the roster. Ruben Gotay hit .295/.351/.421 in 190 at bats last year. Those numbers aren't eye-popping and he may not have even been likely to repeat them. But he could have been a solid bat off the bench with some power to complement Luis Castillo's "singles, singles and more singles" approach. Instead, they've chosen Tatis and his "versatility." He's so versatile that he spent two of the last four years doing something other than play professional baseball. Tatis will likely have the job of backing up Delgado at first base and making Carlos look like an offensive powerhouse by comparison.
Castillo is signed for four years and should keep putting up solid OBPs with no power and decent defense for at least a couple of years. Backing him up this year will be thirty-eight year-old Damion Easley and thirty-four year-old Marlon Anderson. Both could provide a decent bat off the bench with more power than Castillo if they stay healthy. Meanwhile, the twenty-five year-old Gotay will likely fit in just fine on the Atlanta Braves' bench.
Shortstop
Jose Reyes famously hit a slump at the worst possible time in 2007. But he still had a very productive year at .280/.354/.421 with 78 stolen bases and very good defense. He didn't hit with as much power as in 2006, but he continued to improve his walk rate. There's been a lot of talk in the offseason of Reyes toning down his fun-loving antics or trying to hit the ball on the ground more. When the season starts, I expect that all of that will be forgotten and Reyes will be what he is: one of the best players in the game who's still getting better. And he won't turn twenty-five until June.
Third Base
David Wright is the old man of the left side of the Mets' infield, having reached the big two-five back in December. He'll just have to settle for being the better player of the two. Last year's .325/.416/.546, 34 stolen base, Gold Glove campaign might have made him the first NL MVP in Met history if not for his teammates collapsing around him in late September. He did all he could, hitting .397/.451/.575 in those last seventeen games. He probably wasn't the best defensive third baseman in the league last year, but he has certainly improved a lot in his three and a half major league seasons. And with the bat he is beyond reproach and only getting better. The Mets may make one questionable decision after another at the margins of their roster, but as long as Wright and Reyes are sporting the orange and blue, this team will be worth watching.
Left Field
Moises Alou gave the Mets a terrific half of a season in 2007, hitting .341/.392/.524 in 87 games. He was one of the few standing alongside Wright, pounding out hits all through September including a twenty-four game hitting streak that started on August 31st. There's no reason this year should be any different. Unfortunately, the inevitable disabled list portion of the season will start with game one as Alou is out until late April or so due to hernia surgery. Backups Angel Pagan and Endy Chavez should provide good-to-great defense in his absence, but neither will come close to replacing his bat.
While it seems likely Alou will be able to hit as long as he's able to walk, he will turn forty-two this season. Six months ago the Mets had three promising young outfielders in their system who might fill the impending holes in left and right field. Now Fernando Martinez is the last man standing. While he may have the bat to be a major league left fielder before too long, expecting him to be ready by 2009 is overly optimistic. He's still only nineteen and didn't exactly tear up AA Binghamton last year. The Mets may be in the market for a stopgap after this season, though I wouldn't bet against the best option being Alou himself.
Center Field
Carlos Beltran didn't quite repeat his monster 2006, but he still had an excellent year, hitting .276/.353/.525 and winning his second, deserved Gold Glove. He was slowed at times by some minor injuries, which is becoming an annual tradition. But when he is completely healthy, he can be a dominant player and overall, there's no shame in playing second fiddle to David Wright. Beltran's $119 million contract runs through 2011 and right now, it doesn't seem like the Mets will regret a dollar of it.
Right Field
The trade that sent Lastings Milledge to the Nationals in exchange for Ryan Church and Brian Schneider didn't make the 2008 Mets any better and it did make them older. But that doesn't mean that a full year of Church in right field won't be an improvement over what the Mets got in 2007 when Willie Randolph repeatedly chose Shawn Green over Milledge. Met right fielders hit just .273/.326/.398, well below the NL average of .275/.344/.442. Meanwhile, Church, in his first full major league season, hit .272/.349/.464 in one of the best pitcher's parks in the game. He should also be a defensive improvement over Green's statuesque performance. Church won't be an All-Star and the fact that he played his first full major league season at 28 doesn't bode well for his career longevity. But in 2008, he will be an asset.
The Mets' offense isn't without its holes and there isn't much help on the way from the minors. But they've got three great players in the primes of their careers with some decent supporting players alongside them. This team isn't going to lead the league in runs scored, but they should again be solidly in the top four or five. That could be plenty, given the Mets' pitching staff, who I will be back to discuss shortly.
Catcher
Met backstops hit .267/.309/.410 last year, around average for the league, as a big year from Ramon Castro (.291/.333/.567 in 141 AB) somewhat made up for Paul Lo Duca's decision to stop using steroids (.266/.307/.373 in 429 AB). That story will have to repeat itself in 2008 if the Mets are going to get any offensive production out of this position as Brian Schneider and his anemic bat step into the starting role. There's been talk of Castro getting significantly more playing time this year, but I'll believe that Willie Randolph will deviate from traditional starter/backup roles when I see it. The fact that Castro may begin the season on the disabled list with a strained hamstring won't help any.
Schneider and Castro are both signed through 2009 when both of them will turn thirty-three. That gives the Mets about nineteen months to come up with some sort of long term plan for this position as they don't seem to have one yet. After carelessly losing Jesus Flores to the Nationals in last year's Rule 5 Draft, the best minor league catchers in the Mets' system include thirty-five year-old Raul Casanova and eighteen year-old Francisco Peña. Peña may someday catch for the Mets, but he may be old enough to drink by the time he figures out the whole "hitting" thing as he hit just .210/.263/.283 in A-ball last year.
First Base
The parts of this preview that point toward good times ahead will show up any paragraph now. In the meantime, let's talk about Carlos Delgado. Delgado fell off a cliff in 2007, hitting .258/.333/.448. He lost a full hundred points from his 2006 slugging percentage and was well below average for a National League first baseman. He did have a couple of very good months, posting OPSes over .900 in July and September. Perhaps offseason elbow and wrist surgery led him to get off to a slow start and we can expect him to bounce back somewhat now that he's relatively healthy. But the chances of him being an elite first baseman or one of the three best offensive players on this team are pretty slim.
After this season the Mets will have to decide whether to pick up Delgado's option for 2009 or pay him $4 million to go away. Barring a miraculous comeback, this should not be a difficult decision. Seeing as the Mets don't have any reinforcements on the way from the minors or even any decent options to back up Delgado this year, their future plans likely involve throwing lots of money at Mark Teixeira.
Second Base
Met second basemen hit .278/.348/.405 in 2007, about average for the NL. Unfortunately, the Mets decided to dump the best bat they had at the position to make room for Fernando Tatis on the roster. Ruben Gotay hit .295/.351/.421 in 190 at bats last year. Those numbers aren't eye-popping and he may not have even been likely to repeat them. But he could have been a solid bat off the bench with some power to complement Luis Castillo's "singles, singles and more singles" approach. Instead, they've chosen Tatis and his "versatility." He's so versatile that he spent two of the last four years doing something other than play professional baseball. Tatis will likely have the job of backing up Delgado at first base and making Carlos look like an offensive powerhouse by comparison.
Castillo is signed for four years and should keep putting up solid OBPs with no power and decent defense for at least a couple of years. Backing him up this year will be thirty-eight year-old Damion Easley and thirty-four year-old Marlon Anderson. Both could provide a decent bat off the bench with more power than Castillo if they stay healthy. Meanwhile, the twenty-five year-old Gotay will likely fit in just fine on the Atlanta Braves' bench.
Shortstop
Jose Reyes famously hit a slump at the worst possible time in 2007. But he still had a very productive year at .280/.354/.421 with 78 stolen bases and very good defense. He didn't hit with as much power as in 2006, but he continued to improve his walk rate. There's been a lot of talk in the offseason of Reyes toning down his fun-loving antics or trying to hit the ball on the ground more. When the season starts, I expect that all of that will be forgotten and Reyes will be what he is: one of the best players in the game who's still getting better. And he won't turn twenty-five until June.
Third Base
David Wright is the old man of the left side of the Mets' infield, having reached the big two-five back in December. He'll just have to settle for being the better player of the two. Last year's .325/.416/.546, 34 stolen base, Gold Glove campaign might have made him the first NL MVP in Met history if not for his teammates collapsing around him in late September. He did all he could, hitting .397/.451/.575 in those last seventeen games. He probably wasn't the best defensive third baseman in the league last year, but he has certainly improved a lot in his three and a half major league seasons. And with the bat he is beyond reproach and only getting better. The Mets may make one questionable decision after another at the margins of their roster, but as long as Wright and Reyes are sporting the orange and blue, this team will be worth watching.
Left Field
Moises Alou gave the Mets a terrific half of a season in 2007, hitting .341/.392/.524 in 87 games. He was one of the few standing alongside Wright, pounding out hits all through September including a twenty-four game hitting streak that started on August 31st. There's no reason this year should be any different. Unfortunately, the inevitable disabled list portion of the season will start with game one as Alou is out until late April or so due to hernia surgery. Backups Angel Pagan and Endy Chavez should provide good-to-great defense in his absence, but neither will come close to replacing his bat.
While it seems likely Alou will be able to hit as long as he's able to walk, he will turn forty-two this season. Six months ago the Mets had three promising young outfielders in their system who might fill the impending holes in left and right field. Now Fernando Martinez is the last man standing. While he may have the bat to be a major league left fielder before too long, expecting him to be ready by 2009 is overly optimistic. He's still only nineteen and didn't exactly tear up AA Binghamton last year. The Mets may be in the market for a stopgap after this season, though I wouldn't bet against the best option being Alou himself.
Center Field
Carlos Beltran didn't quite repeat his monster 2006, but he still had an excellent year, hitting .276/.353/.525 and winning his second, deserved Gold Glove. He was slowed at times by some minor injuries, which is becoming an annual tradition. But when he is completely healthy, he can be a dominant player and overall, there's no shame in playing second fiddle to David Wright. Beltran's $119 million contract runs through 2011 and right now, it doesn't seem like the Mets will regret a dollar of it.
Right Field
The trade that sent Lastings Milledge to the Nationals in exchange for Ryan Church and Brian Schneider didn't make the 2008 Mets any better and it did make them older. But that doesn't mean that a full year of Church in right field won't be an improvement over what the Mets got in 2007 when Willie Randolph repeatedly chose Shawn Green over Milledge. Met right fielders hit just .273/.326/.398, well below the NL average of .275/.344/.442. Meanwhile, Church, in his first full major league season, hit .272/.349/.464 in one of the best pitcher's parks in the game. He should also be a defensive improvement over Green's statuesque performance. Church won't be an All-Star and the fact that he played his first full major league season at 28 doesn't bode well for his career longevity. But in 2008, he will be an asset.
The Mets' offense isn't without its holes and there isn't much help on the way from the minors. But they've got three great players in the primes of their careers with some decent supporting players alongside them. This team isn't going to lead the league in runs scored, but they should again be solidly in the top four or five. That could be plenty, given the Mets' pitching staff, who I will be back to discuss shortly.
Friday, March 28, 2008
Spring fling
I don't usually put much stock in spring training stats unless a player is coming off an injury or there are other circumstances, such as in Dontrelle Willis' case because he was trying to reclaim his control.So, in 16-2/3 innings, Willis walked 15 and gave up 25 hits. He plunked 2 batters and tossed 4 wild pitches. This isn't making me feel good about his spot in the rotation as the season gets under way. On the bright side, he only gave up 1 HR.
Here are some other numbers, good and bad.
Carlos Guillen: 5 HR and 12 RBI in 64 AB. If playing first base saves his legs and back, Guillen could be on his way to big numbers. I'm thinking OPS around .940.
Pudge Rodriguez: 8 HR in 56 AB. Offseason weights workout looks like it's paying off. With no solid backup until Vance Wilson's return, he will need his strength.
Placido Polanco: .415/.449/.677 in 65 AB. Should top 200 hits again as people worry about big boppers following him. And few will notice.
Marcus Thames: 4 HR and 10 RBI in 37 AB. Will he remain in Motown or be gone in exchange for an arm? In his last 162 games, he's got 34 HR and 97 RBI in 511 AB. If only he could raise that .239 BA and .292 OBP.
Gary Sheffield: .189 BA in 49 AB. Probably no big deal. Especially if that shoulder is healthy.
Nate Robertson: 1.26 ERA, 12 K/2 BB in 14-1/3 IP. Maybe this is the year Nate puts it all together. It seems more likely than a Willis turnaround.
Denny Bautista: 1.42 ERA, 12 K/3 BB in 12-2/3 IP. The new Zumaya.
Aquilino Lopez: 1.32 ERA, 15 K/3 BB in 13-1/3 IP. The new Rodney.
Kenny Rogers: 3.44 ERA in 18-1/3 IP. The Gambler's all in, probably for the final time.
Todd Jones: 10.24 ERA in 9-2/3 IP. Does this roller-coaster still go up, or is it all downhill from here?
Monday, March 24, 2008
Cabrera up, Granderson down
The Tigers reportedly agreed to terms with Miguel Cabrera on an 8-year, $152-million contract extension. The deal includes the $11 million owed Cabrera for this year. Certainly, it's a lot of money, but this is a great outcome for Detroit because it locks up Cabrera until the age of 33. Perfect. After giving up Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller as part of the trade with the Marlins to get Cabrera, the Tigs needed to get him signed long term.
On the down side, Curtis Granderson suffered a broken finger when hit by a pitch over the weekend. Adding insult to injury, the game was rained out moments later. Brandon Inge will remain a Tiger now, at least for the foreseeable future, as he is likely to see a lot of time in CF in Granderson's absence. Granderson is out until at least mid-April.
Another concern is the leadoff spot. Edgar Renteria batted No. 1 yesterday and seems the most likely (maybe only?) candidate to bat there when the season begins. Renteria had a .390 OBP last season with the Braves.
On the down side, Curtis Granderson suffered a broken finger when hit by a pitch over the weekend. Adding insult to injury, the game was rained out moments later. Brandon Inge will remain a Tiger now, at least for the foreseeable future, as he is likely to see a lot of time in CF in Granderson's absence. Granderson is out until at least mid-April.
Another concern is the leadoff spot. Edgar Renteria batted No. 1 yesterday and seems the most likely (maybe only?) candidate to bat there when the season begins. Renteria had a .390 OBP last season with the Braves.
Friday, March 21, 2008
Money ball
The Wall Street Journal, of all publications, has a feature about Jeremy Bonderman and his first-inning woes. It's worth checking out, if for no other reasons than the illustration and the fact everyone is called "Mr." in the article. The Detroit Tigers Weblog takes the analysis further.
Skip speak
"Everybody's worried about the pitching; I'm not worried about the pitching," Tigers manager Jim Leyland is quoted on MLB.com. "It's either going to do it or it doesn't. That's what we got. There's no secrets. Nobody's going to parachute in here tonight that's going to be our savior. So the guys we've got [have] to do it, it's that simple. We'll make those choices. We're trying to weigh everything and make those choices. It will all take care of itself."
Thursday, March 20, 2008
Happy Spring!
Michigan's Kirsten Haglund, a.k.a. Miss America, will toss out the first ball for Detroit's Opening Day. She'll also sing the National Anthem and God Bless America.It's good to be a Tigers fan.
Haglund, by the way, was 6-months old when pitcher Kenny Rogers made his MLB debut with the Texas Rangers in 1989.
Saturday, March 15, 2008
Wild about the whiff
The more I started reading about baseball stats, the more I’ve come to realize the value of strikeouts for pitchers. I guess I’m a slow learner, or liked to believe that those who relied on guts and guile were just as good. (And a few are, especially if they keep the ball on the ground more than 55% of the time.)Yesterday, I took a simplistic look at the K. This is what I found, which sort of blew me away.
Last season, 23 of the top 24 pitchers in strikeouts had an ERA under 4.00. Only Boston’s Matsuzaka (4.40) failed to achieve that level. Of the 29 pitchers with at least 160 Ks, only Matsuzaka, Baltimore’s Daniel Cabrera (5.55) and Colorado’s Jeff Francis (4.22) topped 4.00.
In 2006, the trend wasn’t as strong, although 16 of the top 17 strikeout men had an ERA of 4.20 or lower. Only the ChiSox’s Javier Vasquez (4.84) was above it.
In 2005, Vasquez (this time in Arizona) again spoiled things. His 4.42 ERA was the only one among the top 25 strikeout pitchers to top 4.00.
In 2004, only Detroit’s Jeremy Bonderman (4.89) and Toronto’s Ted Lilly (4.06) topped 4.00 among the top 21.
Guess what happened in 2003? This time 10 of the top 11 were under 3.41 ERA (only NYY’s Roger Clemens was above at 3.91). None of the top 24 had an ERA above 4.23, and 23 were 4.13 or lower.
In 2002, the top 9 were 3.66 or lower and 16 of the top 20 were under 4.00.
You get the picture. I know ERA isn’t the best measure of a pitcher, but those numbers were overwhelming. No wonder Dave Dombrowski stocks up on those power arms.
Pudge pop
As if the Tigers needed more power in the lineup, Pudge Rodriguez shows signs of renewed pop with 6 HR in 32 AB this spring. According to a story in the Free Press, Pudge worked with heavier weights during the offseason. His stats are .375/.412/1.000.
Thursday, March 13, 2008
Lucky 13
Sports Illustrated has put out a list of the top 20 young pitchers in MLB. You can view it here. Detroit's Justin Verlander is No. 1. Philly's Cole Hamels in No. 3. To renew the queasiness Mets fans feel every time Scott Kazmir's name is mentioned, he is No. 4.
The Tigers' Jeremy Bonderman is No. 13. There is no question Bonderman has the talent to be a top dog. There also is no question he can be a mutt at times too. I saw him toss 7 innings of 1-hit ball against the Phillies in 2004. He struck out 8. He looked like a stud.
His effort that day lowered his ERA to 5.63.
Brilliance such as that, or his great duel with Roy Halladay last April (9 IP, 6 H, 1 R) or ALCS effort against the Yankees in 2006 (8.1 IP, 5 H, 2 R) or 1-0 win in Minnesota last year (8 IP, 6 H, 7 K) fuel the excitement surrounding his abilities.
Here are some stats for unnamed pitchers since the start of the 2003 season (Bonderman's first year) with at least 600 IP:
Pitcher 1: 48-45, 4.83 ERA
Pitcher 2: 43-38, 4.95 ERA
Pitcher 3: 54-46, 4.65 ERA
Pitcher 4: 56-62, 4.78 ERA
Pitcher 5: 42-54, 4.53 ERA
Bonderman is among that group. I will tell you his ERA is the 18th worst among all pitchers to throw at least 600 IP since the start of 2003. Granted, Bonderman was very young when he started his career and the Tigers were very bad. And you can't base everything on ERA. And Bonderman pitched hurt the second half of last season.
Yet at some point you are what your numbers say you are. Bonderman's ERA+ by season is 77, 91, 93, 112, 91. Even his best season, in 2006, is hardly exceptional.
Reports out of spring training say Bonderman is pleased with his changeup, which is the pitch that will put him over the top. Let's hope so. I want Jeremy to succeed. Honest. I'm just baffled at the way the scribes continue to gush about him. I hope the 9-1, 3.48 ERA pre-All Star break Bonderman returns in 2008. Hope springs eternal.
Now, the pitcher meantioned above are, in order, Adam Eaton, Claudio Vargas, Jason Marquis, Bonderman, and Nate Robertson. For whatever it's worth.
The Tigers' Jeremy Bonderman is No. 13. There is no question Bonderman has the talent to be a top dog. There also is no question he can be a mutt at times too. I saw him toss 7 innings of 1-hit ball against the Phillies in 2004. He struck out 8. He looked like a stud.
His effort that day lowered his ERA to 5.63.
Brilliance such as that, or his great duel with Roy Halladay last April (9 IP, 6 H, 1 R) or ALCS effort against the Yankees in 2006 (8.1 IP, 5 H, 2 R) or 1-0 win in Minnesota last year (8 IP, 6 H, 7 K) fuel the excitement surrounding his abilities.
Here are some stats for unnamed pitchers since the start of the 2003 season (Bonderman's first year) with at least 600 IP:
Pitcher 1: 48-45, 4.83 ERA
Pitcher 2: 43-38, 4.95 ERA
Pitcher 3: 54-46, 4.65 ERA
Pitcher 4: 56-62, 4.78 ERA
Pitcher 5: 42-54, 4.53 ERA
Bonderman is among that group. I will tell you his ERA is the 18th worst among all pitchers to throw at least 600 IP since the start of 2003. Granted, Bonderman was very young when he started his career and the Tigers were very bad. And you can't base everything on ERA. And Bonderman pitched hurt the second half of last season.
Yet at some point you are what your numbers say you are. Bonderman's ERA+ by season is 77, 91, 93, 112, 91. Even his best season, in 2006, is hardly exceptional.
Reports out of spring training say Bonderman is pleased with his changeup, which is the pitch that will put him over the top. Let's hope so. I want Jeremy to succeed. Honest. I'm just baffled at the way the scribes continue to gush about him. I hope the 9-1, 3.48 ERA pre-All Star break Bonderman returns in 2008. Hope springs eternal.
Now, the pitcher meantioned above are, in order, Adam Eaton, Claudio Vargas, Jason Marquis, Bonderman, and Nate Robertson. For whatever it's worth.
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
Monday, March 10, 2008
There is crying in baseball
Thanks to Joe Girardi.
He also said he doesn't understand why teams have their pitchers throw hard against the Yankees, or use those "tricky bendy pitches" in spring training. It's not a good way to help the Yankees prepare for the season.
He also said he doesn't understand why teams have their pitchers throw hard against the Yankees, or use those "tricky bendy pitches" in spring training. It's not a good way to help the Yankees prepare for the season.
Saturday, March 08, 2008
The Mets and Bonds
In his March 7th post, Mets should consider Bonds, Buster Olney has made me question his sanity. Ok, so the numbers say it wouldn't be a terrible idea. But for once, I'd argue there's more to this than just stats. Signing Bonds continues the incentive for cheating.
If the Mets sign Barry Bonds, I will put my hat away until he has left. I will not root for the Mets or baseball at all. There are other steroid users that would probably have the same effect on me, but Bonds is the king. I know I am not alone. You can hold me to this.
If the Mets sign Barry Bonds, I will put my hat away until he has left. I will not root for the Mets or baseball at all. There are other steroid users that would probably have the same effect on me, but Bonds is the king. I know I am not alone. You can hold me to this.
Thursday, March 06, 2008
Praise for Inge
The Free Press reports that Al Kaline says Brandon Inge could be one of the game's premier outfielders if given the chance. Lost in all the hubbub about where Inge will play this season (position and/or team) is the fact he's off to a nice start offensively this spring. It's hard to get excited about stats at this point, except this one might be a good sign: Inge has 6 BBs and 1 K so far. Last season, he had 0.31 BBs per every K.
Tigers-Mets trade partners?
The Free Press says the Mets might have legitimate interest in Tigers OF Marcus Thames. Whether the Tigers have genuine interesting in parting with Thames remains to be seen.
Wednesday, March 05, 2008
Quick, someone wrap Pedro in bubblewrap
Things that happen in Spring Training tend to be pretty meaningless in the long run. Some no-name hitter getting hot for three weeks batting against other teams' minor league relievers isn't cause to run out and buy his jersey. Your team's ace getting knocked around while experimenting with a new pitch shouldn't lead you to sell your season tickets. Still, the first three weeks of baseball have gone pretty poorly for the Mets.
Six of the Mets' presumptive Opening Day starting nine have missed time due to injury and their theoretical second baseman and center fielder haven't set foot on the exhibition grass at all. Most of these injuries have been minor and will likely be forgotten by the time the team heads north. But for a squad as old as it is talented, it hasn't been an encouraging start. And the news has only gotten worse this week.
First there was the news that Orlando Hernandez has had to alter his windup, ditching his trademark high leg kick to alleviate pain in his right big toe. Right now he appears to be more than a few weeks away from being ready to start the season. It's no surprise that El Duque will miss some time this season and Plan B, Mike Pelfrey, has pitched well in his early starts. But this seems like the sort of problem that could linger and potentially derail Hernandez's whole season and beyond the unproven Pelfrey, the Mets don't have much of a backup plan for the fifth starter spot.
Then we learned today that Moises Alou will miss four to six weeks due to hernia surgery. Alou's injury is about as surprising as Duque's, but the Mets might be even more ill-prepared to replace the aged outfielder. His nominal backup is Endy Chavez who hasn't played an inning this spring. If he doesn't return, the task probably falls to Angel Pagan, who, awesome name and 12-for-28 spring aside, has a career .306 OBP. He's got enough speed and defensive ability to be a decent fifth outfielder, but starting him in left field for a few weeks would be less than ideal. Brady Clark would not be a whole lot better.
Then there's Carlos Delgado's bad hip. And Ryan Church's concussion. Maybe now is the time for Omar Minaya to stop putting off looking for some backups for his oldest and most fragile starters. At this point I'm just hoping Olmedo Saenz doesn't get the start at first base on March 31st.
Six of the Mets' presumptive Opening Day starting nine have missed time due to injury and their theoretical second baseman and center fielder haven't set foot on the exhibition grass at all. Most of these injuries have been minor and will likely be forgotten by the time the team heads north. But for a squad as old as it is talented, it hasn't been an encouraging start. And the news has only gotten worse this week.
First there was the news that Orlando Hernandez has had to alter his windup, ditching his trademark high leg kick to alleviate pain in his right big toe. Right now he appears to be more than a few weeks away from being ready to start the season. It's no surprise that El Duque will miss some time this season and Plan B, Mike Pelfrey, has pitched well in his early starts. But this seems like the sort of problem that could linger and potentially derail Hernandez's whole season and beyond the unproven Pelfrey, the Mets don't have much of a backup plan for the fifth starter spot.
Then we learned today that Moises Alou will miss four to six weeks due to hernia surgery. Alou's injury is about as surprising as Duque's, but the Mets might be even more ill-prepared to replace the aged outfielder. His nominal backup is Endy Chavez who hasn't played an inning this spring. If he doesn't return, the task probably falls to Angel Pagan, who, awesome name and 12-for-28 spring aside, has a career .306 OBP. He's got enough speed and defensive ability to be a decent fifth outfielder, but starting him in left field for a few weeks would be less than ideal. Brady Clark would not be a whole lot better.
Then there's Carlos Delgado's bad hip. And Ryan Church's concussion. Maybe now is the time for Omar Minaya to stop putting off looking for some backups for his oldest and most fragile starters. At this point I'm just hoping Olmedo Saenz doesn't get the start at first base on March 31st.
Friday, February 29, 2008
A bullpen boost?
If the reports out of spring training about Matt Mantei are more than wishful thinking, he could be a solid addition to the Tigers' bullpen. Especially with Fernando Rodney shut down again because of tendinitis.
Read the latest about Mantei from the Free Press here.
Read the latest about Mantei from the Free Press here.
Pitching sharp again
The Tigers improved to 2-0 in Grapefruit League action as their pitchers limited Toronto to 4 hits. Three of the base knocks were allowed by Macay McBride. On the hitting side, Curtis Granderson hit his first homer of the spring and drove in 2. Magglio Ordonez had two hits and also 2 ribbies.
One of the pitchers who saw action yesterday was Armando Galarraga. The Tigers picked him up from Texas via trade. He's a 26-year-old, 6-foot-4 righty. From what I've read, he's got potential but was hampered by injuries (Tommy John surgery in 2002). He was acquired by Texas in 2005 as part of the deal that sent Alfonso Soriano to Washington. Baseball America suggests he could be a No. 5 starter someday.
He appeared in 3 games for Texas last season and had a 6.23 ERA in 8.2 innings. He's 24-25 with a 4.11 ERA in 116 games (98 starts) in the minors. He seems to have decent strikeout numbers, but walks too many. He's expected to start the season at Triple-A Toledo.
Galarraga is not related to the "Big Cat," Andres Galarraga. There goes my plan to label him the "Kiddy Cat."
One of the pitchers who saw action yesterday was Armando Galarraga. The Tigers picked him up from Texas via trade. He's a 26-year-old, 6-foot-4 righty. From what I've read, he's got potential but was hampered by injuries (Tommy John surgery in 2002). He was acquired by Texas in 2005 as part of the deal that sent Alfonso Soriano to Washington. Baseball America suggests he could be a No. 5 starter someday.
He appeared in 3 games for Texas last season and had a 6.23 ERA in 8.2 innings. He's 24-25 with a 4.11 ERA in 116 games (98 starts) in the minors. He seems to have decent strikeout numbers, but walks too many. He's expected to start the season at Triple-A Toledo.
Galarraga is not related to the "Big Cat," Andres Galarraga. There goes my plan to label him the "Kiddy Cat."
Thursday, February 28, 2008
Quote du jour
"I wasn't very good in math, but I did some math the other day. I figured out that the four guys hitting in front of Cabrera hit a combined average of .320. ... I did some math and I figured out that that made a little sense."
-- Tigers manager Jim Leyland on Miguel Cabrera batting fifth behind Curtis Granderson, Placido Polanco, Gary Sheffield and Magglio Ordonez.
-- Tigers manager Jim Leyland on Miguel Cabrera batting fifth behind Curtis Granderson, Placido Polanco, Gary Sheffield and Magglio Ordonez.
Let the game's begin (exhibition style)
It's hard to get too excited about spring training games, unless you're in Florida or Arizona watching them. The most exciting thing is they signal the season is not far away.The Tigers beat the Mets 4-2 yesterday. The great Motown lineup managed just 1 hit in the first 6 innings and a fella named Wilkin Ramirez (22-year-old OF prospect who hit .273-10-41 in 319 ABs at Single-A Lakeland and .215-2-14 in 121 ABs at Double-A Erie) had a two-run single in the seventh to provide the margin of victory.
Primarily, Detroit fans will be watching the pitchers and a few position players -- Brandon Inge and Ryan Raburn especially.
Jeremy Bonderman pitched two innings yesterday and gave up four hits and two runs. He worked without using his slider to prevent unnecessary strain on his elbow and to work on other pitches (changeup primarily). Jason Grilli, Zach Miner, Preston Larrison, Tim Byrdak and Denny Bautista followed with 7 innings of 2-hit ball.
Larrison, 27, is a sinkerball pitcher with, from reports, the stuff to pitch in the bigs. He just needs to stay healthy. He makes annual trips to the DL and had Tommy John surgery a couple years ago.
Inge, who played as a replacement in CF, had a hit, an RBI and a walk.
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Skating through
I was surfing around baseball-reference.com and came across the MVP voting for 1989. I noticed Lonnie Smith hit 21 HR in 482 ABs that season -- the only time he reached double digits in a 17-year career. Other than Kevin Mitchell and Will Clark, his OPS that year was higher than any other player in baseball. In all of major league baseball. He slugged .533 that season, well above his career mark of .420. Most odd.
Yard work
Miguel Cabrera homered in his first at-bat as a Tiger yesterday, albeit against a college team. Still, the blast drew awe from players on both sides and reportedly carried more than 470 feet. Cabrera noted the wind was blowing out.
Sunday afternoons
TBS announced its lineup for the first two months of the season for its Sunday afternoon telecasts. As to be expected, either the Red Sox, Cubs, Mets and Yankees are involved in 7 of the 8 games (the Dodgers-Braves is the other). Nonetheless, I love the idea of a Sunday afternoon game.
Monday, February 25, 2008
To the point
Tom Gage in the Detroit News details more of Jim Leyland's direct approach. This time, the issue was Pudge Rodriguez's spot in the batting order.It will be eighth.
He also reported closer Todd Jones will start the team's exhibition game against Florida Southern. He will come out after one inning. Jeremy Bonderman will start the true exhibition opener Wednesday against the Mets.
The Free Press reported Matt Mantei's comeback attempt is going as well as could be hoped. If Mantei, 34, can even reach 85% of his former self, it might be a help to the bullpen. He was 5-4 with 29 saves and 2.62 ERA in 2003 -- his last full season. He was regarded highly enough to be traded for three players -- including Brad Penny -- in 1999. This is his second time around the comeback trail with the Tigs. We'll keep our fingers crossed.
Thursday, February 21, 2008
Good reason to smile
Ryan Howard was awarded $10 million in arbitration, beating Phillies' management, which offered $7 million. Not many people expected Howard to win, from what I've seen. The Phils' offer was in line with what the Cardinals gave Albert Pujols in the first year he was arbitration eligible. Nonetheless, I guess $10 million for Howard isn't terrible. Philadelphia's bigger problem comes when it's time to try to lock up Howard long term. Howard is a fan favorite, but I think the Phillies -- much like myself -- believe Howard's shelf life to be very limited. I think you've got maybe 3 years of top production, so it's going to put the Phils in an awkward position.NEW YORK (AP) -Current baseball contracts with average annual values of $16 million or more. Figures were obtained by The Associated Press from player and management sources and include all guaranteed income but not income from potential incentive bonuses. There is no distinction for money deferred without interest:
Player, Club Years Avg. Salary
Alex Rodriguez, NYY 2008-17 $27,500,000
Johan Santana, NYM 2008-13 $22,916,667
Manny Ramirez, Bos 2001-08 $20,000,000
Derek Jeter, NYY 2001-10 $18,900,000
Carlos Zambrano, Cubs 2008-12 $18,300,000
Andruw Jones, LAD 2008-09 $18,100,000
Vernon Wells, Tor 2008-14 $18,000,000
Barry Zito, SF 2007-13 $18,000,000
Ichiro Suzuki, Sea 2008-12 $18,000,000
Jason Giambi, NYY 2002-08 $17,142,857
Carlos Beltran, NYM 2005-11 $17,000,000
Alfonso Soriano, Cubs 2007-14 $17,000,000
Carlos Lee, Hou 2007-12 $16,666,667
Andy Pettitte, NYY 2008 $16,000,000
Alex Rodriguez, NYY 2008-17 $27,500,000
Johan Santana, NYM 2008-13 $22,916,667
Manny Ramirez, Bos 2001-08 $20,000,000
Derek Jeter, NYY 2001-10 $18,900,000
Carlos Zambrano, Cubs 2008-12 $18,300,000
Andruw Jones, LAD 2008-09 $18,100,000
Vernon Wells, Tor 2008-14 $18,000,000
Barry Zito, SF 2007-13 $18,000,000
Ichiro Suzuki, Sea 2008-12 $18,000,000
Jason Giambi, NYY 2002-08 $17,142,857
Carlos Beltran, NYM 2005-11 $17,000,000
Alfonso Soriano, Cubs 2007-14 $17,000,000
Carlos Lee, Hou 2007-12 $16,666,667
Andy Pettitte, NYY 2008 $16,000,000
Shouldering woes
The Detroit Free Press reported reliever Fernando Rodney is experiencing shoulder trouble again. Rodney said Wednesday the shoulder pain is similar to the pain he had last season that forced him onto the disabled list.
This is ominous given the already shaky status of the bullpen. We'll see what happens, but it might be best to figure Rodney and Joel Zumaya will provide little help this season and try to develop/find other options.
This is ominous given the already shaky status of the bullpen. We'll see what happens, but it might be best to figure Rodney and Joel Zumaya will provide little help this season and try to develop/find other options.
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
K-ontact
John Lowe in the Detroit Free Press has a story about Placido Polanco's prowess as a 2-strike hitter. Polanco on striking out: "I hate it, I hate it, I hate it, I hate it."
Polanco batted .350 last season with 2 strikes. The AL average with 2 strikes was .198.
Here is the full story, in which Polanco credits coaches Manny Mota and Greg Gross for some of his success.
Polanco batted .350 last season with 2 strikes. The AL average with 2 strikes was .198.
Here is the full story, in which Polanco credits coaches Manny Mota and Greg Gross for some of his success.
Kick in the glass
And to think, Hunter Pence wasn't even on the cover of Sports Illustrated.I wonder if Johan stands a chance to make it through the spring.
Friday, February 15, 2008
Straight talk
One of the primary reasons Jim Leyland is successful, I think, is his ability to manage people. This, as I've stated in defense of Charlie Manuel, is more important than managing games. Here is another example, taken from the Detroit News. It's Leyland's comments regarding Brandon Inge as the Tigers open camp."We're going to talk about that when he gets here. He and I are going to call the media into my office and discuss it one time, tell you everything, then not talk about it for the rest of the spring. That way he won't be aggravated every day by someone at his locker wanting to talk about it. He won't talk about it after the one time and I won't, either.
"I think it's a strong possibility (Inge will get traded, but I want to wait for him to be here when I discuss it. That's only fair to him. But until something happens, he's on the ballclub."
Of course, this probably won't stop the media from asking about it every day, but Inge must appreciate Leyland's approach.
Thursday, February 14, 2008
Maroth tries to land with KC
Mike Maroth signed a minor league deal with the Royals last week and already is making adjustments in his mechanics that he thinks might be helpful. I hope he makes the team and can return to form. I wish him all the best, except when he's facing the Tigers.
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
Shouldering expectations
Gary Sheffield and Joel Zumaya, both coming off shoulder surgery, are in Tigers camp early. According to the Detroit Free Press, Sheff reported swinging "pain free" and Zumaya says he is "on a mission" to prove doubters wrong.
If Sheff is healthy, the Tigers offense goes from splendid to splendider. It also would mean, I would think, Miguel Cabrera bats fifth behind Curtis Granderson, Placido Polanco, Sheff, and Magglio Ordonez. Then, after Cabrera, would be Carlos Guillen.
Weeeeee!
Love to see the Sheff of May 2 through July 15 who in 61 games batted .356-20-54 with a 1.115 OPS and 60 runs. He was 12 of 15 in SB attempts, too.
If Sheff is healthy, the Tigers offense goes from splendid to splendider. It also would mean, I would think, Miguel Cabrera bats fifth behind Curtis Granderson, Placido Polanco, Sheff, and Magglio Ordonez. Then, after Cabrera, would be Carlos Guillen.
Weeeeee!
Love to see the Sheff of May 2 through July 15 who in 61 games batted .356-20-54 with a 1.115 OPS and 60 runs. He was 12 of 15 in SB attempts, too.
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Weaver vs. Bonderman
For a while, it seemed the Tigers were destined to have the last laugh in the Jeff Weaver trade. Now, that seems uncertain.
Detroit got Carlos Pena, who was a bust in Motown but blossomed in Tampa, plus Franklyn German and Jeremy Bonderman. After German failed to fulfill projections of being the Dominican version of Lee Smith (according to Baseball America), it still seemed Bonderman alone was going to be a steal for the Tigs.
Since the trade, Weaver's stats:
54-63, 5.00 ERA in 1,000 IP.
Bonderman's stats:
56-62, 4.78 ERA in 923 IP.
I've feared Bonderman could become the next Kris Benson, living on the reputation of potential over results. This might be unfair to Benson, who was 53-56 with a 4.24 ERA after 924 IP in his career.
Detroit got Carlos Pena, who was a bust in Motown but blossomed in Tampa, plus Franklyn German and Jeremy Bonderman. After German failed to fulfill projections of being the Dominican version of Lee Smith (according to Baseball America), it still seemed Bonderman alone was going to be a steal for the Tigs.
Since the trade, Weaver's stats:
54-63, 5.00 ERA in 1,000 IP.
Bonderman's stats:
56-62, 4.78 ERA in 923 IP.
I've feared Bonderman could become the next Kris Benson, living on the reputation of potential over results. This might be unfair to Benson, who was 53-56 with a 4.24 ERA after 924 IP in his career.
Thursday, February 07, 2008
OPS and runs
Below are stats from 2007 for every MLB teams' OPS and run production. The first number is the difference between their offensive OPS and pitching OPS. The number in parentheses is the difference between their runs scored and runs allowed. Make of it what you choose.
Boston Red Sox .101 (210)
New York Yankees .072 (191)
San Diego Padres .046 (75)
Cleveland Indians .042 (107)
Toronto Blue Jays .040 (54)
Colorado Rockies .038 (102)
New York Mets .038 (54)
Detroit Tigers .037 (90)
Chicago Cubs .033 (62)
Atlanta Braves .032 (77)
Milwaukee Brewers .031 (25)
LA Angels .023 (91)
LA Dodgers .018 (8)
Philadelphia Phillies .015 (71)
Oakland A’s .012 (-17)
Seattle Mariners -.018 (-19)
Arizona Diamondbacks -.019 (-20)
Baltimore Orioles -.020 (-112)
Florida Marlins -.022 (-101)
St. Louis Cardinals -.025 (-104)
Texas Rangers -.026 (-28)
Cincinnati Reds -.028 (-70)
San Francisco Giants -.032 (-37)
Minnesota Twins -.034 (-7)
Houston Astros -.049 (-90)
Chicago White Sox -.051 (-146)
Washington Nationals -.057 (-110)
Tampa Bay Devil Rays -.057 (-162)
Pittsburgh Pirates -.063 (-122)
Kansas City Royals -.075 (-72)
One thought concerning the NL East: It would seem the Mets had a lower run differential than you would expect from their OPS differential. Conversely, the Phillies had a higher run differential than you would expect.
Boston Red Sox .101 (210)
New York Yankees .072 (191)
San Diego Padres .046 (75)
Cleveland Indians .042 (107)
Toronto Blue Jays .040 (54)
Colorado Rockies .038 (102)
New York Mets .038 (54)
Detroit Tigers .037 (90)
Chicago Cubs .033 (62)
Atlanta Braves .032 (77)
Milwaukee Brewers .031 (25)
LA Angels .023 (91)
LA Dodgers .018 (8)
Philadelphia Phillies .015 (71)
Oakland A’s .012 (-17)
Seattle Mariners -.018 (-19)
Arizona Diamondbacks -.019 (-20)
Baltimore Orioles -.020 (-112)
Florida Marlins -.022 (-101)
St. Louis Cardinals -.025 (-104)
Texas Rangers -.026 (-28)
Cincinnati Reds -.028 (-70)
San Francisco Giants -.032 (-37)
Minnesota Twins -.034 (-7)
Houston Astros -.049 (-90)
Chicago White Sox -.051 (-146)
Washington Nationals -.057 (-110)
Tampa Bay Devil Rays -.057 (-162)
Pittsburgh Pirates -.063 (-122)
Kansas City Royals -.075 (-72)
One thought concerning the NL East: It would seem the Mets had a lower run differential than you would expect from their OPS differential. Conversely, the Phillies had a higher run differential than you would expect.
Wednesday, February 06, 2008
Another reason to love Curtis
The Detroit News reported that Tigers CF Curtis Granderson celebrated his five-year, $30.25 million contract with a double cheeseburger off the McDonald's dollar menu.
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Johan Santana is going to be a New York Met
This hasn't been an easy offseason to be a New York Mets fan. For months it seemed the Mets would either do nothing significant to improve the 2008 squad or they'd sacrifice the farm system for the sake of a short-term splash. The Milledge trade made it appear that they'd much prefer the latter approach. I never would have figured they'd pull off what they did today. The Mets have acquired Johan Santana in exchange for Carlos Gomez, Philip Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra. Wow.
If the Mets are going to trade prospects for veterans, this is the kind of deal to make. None of the four players given up was likely to make a significant contribution in 2008. None of them is an elite prospect. And the player the Mets got back will make a serious difference for years to come.
Gomez is the closest to a sure thing among the players the Mets gave up and even he is not that close. His offensive potential is still mostly wrapped up in his tools and his youth rather than his actual performance. He already appears to be quite a defensive player and he may hit enough to be a very valuable player in center field someday. But given that the Mets don't have much need for a center fielder in the next few years, Gomez is more valuable to the Twins.
The three pitchers don't seem likely to make the Mets regret this deal in the coming years. Only Humber has thrown more than six innings above AA and none of them have put up the sort of numbers that portend future dominance. Guerra is only eighteen and he's pitched well in A-ball, so there's a lot of room to dream. But realistically, if two of these guys turn into solid middle of the rotation starters, things will have gone well for the Twins.
This trade does empty out the Mets' cupboard a bit. After 2008, they will have some holes to fill and it would be nice to have some cheap, talented youngsters to plug in or use in trades. This trade leaves them more dependent than ever on the free agent market. But at least they did hold onto top prospect Fernando Martinez. I'm sure we'll still be hearing his name in trade rumors for a couple of years, but I am very glad he'll still be in the organization at the end of this offseason.
Of course, none of this addresses the fact that Johan Santana is about to join the New York Mets rotation. You can pretty much close your eyes and point to a spot on Santana's career stat sheet and expect to land on something that will amaze you. His career strikeout ratio of 9.497 per nine innings is fifth best all time, right between Sandy Koufax and Nolan Ryan. He's pitched at least 219 innings each of the last four seasons. He's never allowed more than 54 walks in a season. He's only twenty-eight!
The idea of Johan Santana pitching to National League lineups in Shea Stadium the day before (or after) Pedro Martinez is enough to make one weak in the knees. The Mets' bullpen could still use some tweaking. Carlos Delgado might not bounce back. They don't have a great backup plan for the weeks Moises Alou will spend on the disabled list. But with a rotation featuring Santana, Martinez, John Maine and Oliver Perez, the Mets should find their way back to the top of the NL East in 2008.
If the Mets are going to trade prospects for veterans, this is the kind of deal to make. None of the four players given up was likely to make a significant contribution in 2008. None of them is an elite prospect. And the player the Mets got back will make a serious difference for years to come.
Gomez is the closest to a sure thing among the players the Mets gave up and even he is not that close. His offensive potential is still mostly wrapped up in his tools and his youth rather than his actual performance. He already appears to be quite a defensive player and he may hit enough to be a very valuable player in center field someday. But given that the Mets don't have much need for a center fielder in the next few years, Gomez is more valuable to the Twins.
The three pitchers don't seem likely to make the Mets regret this deal in the coming years. Only Humber has thrown more than six innings above AA and none of them have put up the sort of numbers that portend future dominance. Guerra is only eighteen and he's pitched well in A-ball, so there's a lot of room to dream. But realistically, if two of these guys turn into solid middle of the rotation starters, things will have gone well for the Twins.
This trade does empty out the Mets' cupboard a bit. After 2008, they will have some holes to fill and it would be nice to have some cheap, talented youngsters to plug in or use in trades. This trade leaves them more dependent than ever on the free agent market. But at least they did hold onto top prospect Fernando Martinez. I'm sure we'll still be hearing his name in trade rumors for a couple of years, but I am very glad he'll still be in the organization at the end of this offseason.
Of course, none of this addresses the fact that Johan Santana is about to join the New York Mets rotation. You can pretty much close your eyes and point to a spot on Santana's career stat sheet and expect to land on something that will amaze you. His career strikeout ratio of 9.497 per nine innings is fifth best all time, right between Sandy Koufax and Nolan Ryan. He's pitched at least 219 innings each of the last four seasons. He's never allowed more than 54 walks in a season. He's only twenty-eight!
The idea of Johan Santana pitching to National League lineups in Shea Stadium the day before (or after) Pedro Martinez is enough to make one weak in the knees. The Mets' bullpen could still use some tweaking. Carlos Delgado might not bounce back. They don't have a great backup plan for the weeks Moises Alou will spend on the disabled list. But with a rotation featuring Santana, Martinez, John Maine and Oliver Perez, the Mets should find their way back to the top of the NL East in 2008.
Saturday, January 19, 2008
Get it done, Omar.
Ok Omar, it’s time to get it done. You know exactly what I’m talking about. Johan Alexander Santana. (Alexander?)
This is very simple. Just shy of 29. Lefty. Two-time AL Cy Young winner. Last year, #1 in WHIP, #2 in strikeouts in a down year. (One might add that the year went downhill when they traded his best friend on the team – TO THE METS.) He’d be going from an even park to a pitchers park. Citi field should be pitcher friendly to. Let’s not forget the league switch, which is good for an ERA drop of 1 or so. Plus, he wants to come.
This team can win now. Prospects schmospects. You’re hung up on the outfield prospects? Go ahead; name me one outfielder – one – you’d rather have than Santana. It can’t be done. Say you’d take Pujols at .330 and 50 jacks over him? What if I reminded you that it wouldn’t be that hard to replace that with .300 and 30. It’s not that hard to buy an outfielder. Especially in this market for pitching. It’s way easier to get outfielders, and that’s what is seems the deal is hung up on. – Prospects. Prospects may not pan out.
*Cough* Gregg Jefferies, Alex Ochoa, Jay Payton, Bill Pulsipher *Cough*.
Or they could turn out to be Jeff Kent, except he is a second baseman. Outfielder schmoutfielders.
I’ll leave it to someone else to pull the VORP and WARP+ numbers which I’m confident will support this argument. Johan Santana to the Mets can be like Pedro to the Sawx all those years ago. Even though they gave up several future major leaguers, you think the Sox would have undone that? You think they’d even want Hanley Ramirez back? Doubtful.
Then there’s the contract. This is easy. C’mon Freddy Coupons, get it done. Here’s how you work it. Can’t insure a 7 year contract? Don’t. Insure a 5 year deal at $22MM per year. Then offer Santana 3 consecutive player options at $17MM. Gives him the security he wants to get to 140/7. Gives the Mets a little security too. See if you can tack on 3 team options at $25MM in case he’s still a stud. Everyone is happy.
Who do the Twins take? I don’t care. Give them a list of seven players, tell them to take any four they want. Gomez, Martinez, Guerra, Humber, Mulvey, Pelfrey, Heilman. If you have to, give them five.
Just get it done.
Friday, January 18, 2008
Rolen along
I was going to write something about the Rolen-Glaus trade, but came across this story by David Pinto in the Sporting News. So I'm taking the easy way out.
Prospects aplenty
Lynn Henning in today's Detroit News says the Tigers farm system is in great shape despite giving up numerous players in recent trades.
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Good deal
The Tigers signed Nate Robertson to a three-year, $21-million extension today. Robertson went 13-13 with a 3.84 ERA in 2006, but struggled with a "dead arm" last season and was 9-13 with a 4.76 ERA.
Robertson's 2007 was in line with his 2004 and 2005 seasons, which is a concern. Maybe he'll never be as good as 2006 again. But even if Robertson is no more than a decent No. 5 starter, the Tigers did well to sign him to this deal becaue they've got Robertson at below market value should he rebound. Robertson went 2-2 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.23 WHIP last September.
Robertson will be 30 this season and is left-handed.
Robertson's 2007 was in line with his 2004 and 2005 seasons, which is a concern. Maybe he'll never be as good as 2006 again. But even if Robertson is no more than a decent No. 5 starter, the Tigers did well to sign him to this deal becaue they've got Robertson at below market value should he rebound. Robertson went 2-2 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.23 WHIP last September.
Robertson will be 30 this season and is left-handed.
Monday, January 14, 2008
Inge's future in the past?
If the Tigers are unable to trade Brandon Inge, they would love for him to consider returning to the catcher position. Jim Leyland said backup Vance Wilson still might need time to recover from last year's elbow surgery. Plus, Pudge Rodriguez's contract expires after this season.
GM Dave Dombrowski, according to the Detroit papers, recently said: "If I was Brandon Inge's best friend I'd tell him 'you should catch.' I say that not thinking he can't play third, but because to me, this guy can be an All-Star catcher. Not only is he good defensively, but his offense takes on a different meaning at that position. Last year was a down year for him, but if he puts up the same offensive numbers, but as a catcher, he might be an All-Star."
Inge primarily was a catcher from 2001 throught 2003. He never batted above .203 during that time and seemed to become a better hitter when moved to third base. He hit .287 in 2004. His batting average has slipped steadily since then, but Dombrowski is correct that Inge's .236-14-71 line would be favorable as a catcher.
The Tigers will still try to deal Inge, as he requested, so he can play every day elsewhere.
"It breaks my heart, to be honest with you, because I love Brandon Inge," Leyland told the Detroit News. "He's one of my favorite players."
GM Dave Dombrowski, according to the Detroit papers, recently said: "If I was Brandon Inge's best friend I'd tell him 'you should catch.' I say that not thinking he can't play third, but because to me, this guy can be an All-Star catcher. Not only is he good defensively, but his offense takes on a different meaning at that position. Last year was a down year for him, but if he puts up the same offensive numbers, but as a catcher, he might be an All-Star."
Inge primarily was a catcher from 2001 throught 2003. He never batted above .203 during that time and seemed to become a better hitter when moved to third base. He hit .287 in 2004. His batting average has slipped steadily since then, but Dombrowski is correct that Inge's .236-14-71 line would be favorable as a catcher.
The Tigers will still try to deal Inge, as he requested, so he can play every day elsewhere.
"It breaks my heart, to be honest with you, because I love Brandon Inge," Leyland told the Detroit News. "He's one of my favorite players."
Thursday, January 10, 2008
Quiz results
With Goose Gossage getting into the Hall of Fame, I’ve been looking at relief pitchers of the ’70s and ’80s. Dan Quisenberry didn’t have enough peak years to reach the HOF, but he had a tremendous six-year run from 1980 through 1985.
His saves by season were 33, 18, 35, 45, 44, 37.
His innings pitched by season were 128.1, 62.1, 136.2, 139, 129.1, 129. (He never started a game, either).
His adjusted ERA+ were 131, 207, 159, 210, 153, 185.
This is what I found most interesting during that six-year span – Five times he finished in the top 5 for the Cy Young Award and four times in the top 10 for MVP. Twice he was runner-up for Cy Young (losing to LaMarr Hoyt in 1983 and Willie Hernandez in 1984) and twice he finished third for Cy Young.
He probably should have gotten the 1983 Cy Young; he was sixth in the voting for MVP while Hoyt was 13th. Hoyt’s ERA+ was 115, not too far above average.
Quisenberry’s career adjusted ERA+ is 146, good for 4th best in MLB history, behind Pedro Martinez, Lefty Grove and Walter Johnson.
His saves by season were 33, 18, 35, 45, 44, 37.
His innings pitched by season were 128.1, 62.1, 136.2, 139, 129.1, 129. (He never started a game, either).
His adjusted ERA+ were 131, 207, 159, 210, 153, 185.
This is what I found most interesting during that six-year span – Five times he finished in the top 5 for the Cy Young Award and four times in the top 10 for MVP. Twice he was runner-up for Cy Young (losing to LaMarr Hoyt in 1983 and Willie Hernandez in 1984) and twice he finished third for Cy Young.
He probably should have gotten the 1983 Cy Young; he was sixth in the voting for MVP while Hoyt was 13th. Hoyt’s ERA+ was 115, not too far above average.
Quisenberry’s career adjusted ERA+ is 146, good for 4th best in MLB history, behind Pedro Martinez, Lefty Grove and Walter Johnson.
Wednesday, January 09, 2008
Better than the New Hampshire polls
Chris Jaffe predicted the Hall of Fame vote on Hardball Times. Here are the percentage results of the actual vote followed by his prediction (in parentheses). He did well. If you want to see the method, here is the story.
Goose Gossage 85.8 (83)
Jim Rice 72.2 (74)
Andre Dawson 65.9 (62)
Bert Blyleven 61.9 (56)
Lee Smith 43.3 (35)
Jack Morris 42.9 (42)
Tommy John 29.1 (26)
Tim Raines 24.3 (45)
Mark McGwire 23.6 (32)
Alan Trammell 18.2 (17)
Goose Gossage 85.8 (83)
Jim Rice 72.2 (74)
Andre Dawson 65.9 (62)
Bert Blyleven 61.9 (56)
Lee Smith 43.3 (35)
Jack Morris 42.9 (42)
Tommy John 29.1 (26)
Tim Raines 24.3 (45)
Mark McGwire 23.6 (32)
Alan Trammell 18.2 (17)
Tuesday, January 08, 2008
Riddle me this
It took Roger Clemens under 17 minutes to pressure Brian McNamee into pleading, "What do you want me to do?"
How long did it take Senator Mitchell?
How long did it take Senator Mitchell?
Thursday, December 27, 2007
Reyes vs. Santana
Should the Mets be willing to part with Jose Reyes to get Johan Santana? NY is apparently unwilling. I don't follow the Mets closely, but it seems to me Reyes for Santana is reasonable. Of course, I root for a team that's traded anything not nailed down, so maybe I'm just freewheeling.
Here are the win share stats for Reyes and Santana, with their MLB rank at their positions, going back to 2004 courtesy of Hardball Times.
2004: Santana 27 (1)
2005: Santana 23 (3)
2006: Santana 25 (1)
2007: Santana 18 (12)
2004: Reyes 5 (38)
2005: Reyes 17 (12)
2006: Reyes 29 (2)
2007: Reyes 24 (5)
The concern would be whether Santana's 15-13, 3.33 ERA and 1.07 WHIP "down year" in 2007 will become the norm as he reaches 29. Also, whether you believe Reyes, in his mid-20s, will still develop into a consistently dynamic game-changing player.
Santana's ERA+ last season was 130 and his career mark is 141. The nearest comparable pitchers through the age of 28 are Tim Hudson, Roy Oswalt, and John Candelaria according to baseball-reference.com.
Reyes OPS+ was 103 last season and his career mark is 97. The nearest comparable modern hitters through age 24 are Edgar Renteria, Jim Fergosi, Garry Templeton and Gregg Jefferies.
If you believe OPS+ and ERA+ are good measuring sticks, then Santana is the better value. Santana could still regularly be one of the three best pitchers in the game, if not the best. Reyes will have to improve to become the best SS in the game, much less one of the top three hitters. So I would give up Reyes for Santana, but I can understand why Mets' fans might be reluctant.
Also, I'll admit I don't know what the Mets have in the way of replacing Reyes, which would be a factor. If the dropoff is significant, it could counteract the benefit of adding Santana.
Here are the win share stats for Reyes and Santana, with their MLB rank at their positions, going back to 2004 courtesy of Hardball Times.
2004: Santana 27 (1)
2005: Santana 23 (3)
2006: Santana 25 (1)
2007: Santana 18 (12)
2004: Reyes 5 (38)
2005: Reyes 17 (12)
2006: Reyes 29 (2)
2007: Reyes 24 (5)
The concern would be whether Santana's 15-13, 3.33 ERA and 1.07 WHIP "down year" in 2007 will become the norm as he reaches 29. Also, whether you believe Reyes, in his mid-20s, will still develop into a consistently dynamic game-changing player.
Santana's ERA+ last season was 130 and his career mark is 141. The nearest comparable pitchers through the age of 28 are Tim Hudson, Roy Oswalt, and John Candelaria according to baseball-reference.com.
Reyes OPS+ was 103 last season and his career mark is 97. The nearest comparable modern hitters through age 24 are Edgar Renteria, Jim Fergosi, Garry Templeton and Gregg Jefferies.
If you believe OPS+ and ERA+ are good measuring sticks, then Santana is the better value. Santana could still regularly be one of the three best pitchers in the game, if not the best. Reyes will have to improve to become the best SS in the game, much less one of the top three hitters. So I would give up Reyes for Santana, but I can understand why Mets' fans might be reluctant.
Also, I'll admit I don't know what the Mets have in the way of replacing Reyes, which would be a factor. If the dropoff is significant, it could counteract the benefit of adding Santana.
Sunday, December 23, 2007
Another Durbin
The Phils signed former Tiger pitcher Chad Durbin, not to be confused with J.D. Durbin, who already was in Philadelphia. The move doesn't seem to be generating much excitement in Philly, but I think it's a solid signing for the Fightins.
Durbin was awful in his first 3 outings for Detroit last season, but better the remainder of the campaign. If you toss those first 3 games, his ERA was 4.03 the rest of the way. On the downside, he doesn't strike out many batters and has a tendency to give up the long ball, which can be deadly in the Zen.
Generally, he was effect when moved to the bullpen after serving as a starter early in the season. In fact, his 5 later spot starts were generally poor.
Here is a breakdown of Durbin's stats. Through his first 14 games, all starts, he posted a 4.37 ERA. Again, remove the horrendous first 3 and for the next 11 starts he was 6-2 with a 3.06 ERA -- not too shabby.
His five spot starts toward the end of the season resulted in a 6.76 ERA.
As a reliever in 17 games, Durbin posted a 4.18 ERA.
Some of Durbin's late season woes might be from fatigue. He pitched 127.2 inning, which isn't a lot, but was his most in the bigs since 2001. He had only 83.2 IP in the majors in 2002-06. It also could be he didn't adjust well to bouncing between the bullpen and rotation.
Another reason for concern is his BABIP last season was .276, which is low, so he might have had some luck on his side or benefited from Comerica and the Tigers' defense.
Nonetheless, the Phils only committed a year and $900,000 in Durbin, which in my mind makes him a worthwhile signing with what's available. You can't dislike a pitcher that posted a 3.06 ERA during an 11-start span, or a 4.18 ERA in long relief. In 2006, he made 28 starts at Triple-A Toledo and was 11-8 with a 3.11 ERA.
He might be best suited for the pen, but gives the Phils another arm to evaluate for the No. 5 spot. And he's only 30.
Durbin was awful in his first 3 outings for Detroit last season, but better the remainder of the campaign. If you toss those first 3 games, his ERA was 4.03 the rest of the way. On the downside, he doesn't strike out many batters and has a tendency to give up the long ball, which can be deadly in the Zen.
Generally, he was effect when moved to the bullpen after serving as a starter early in the season. In fact, his 5 later spot starts were generally poor.
Here is a breakdown of Durbin's stats. Through his first 14 games, all starts, he posted a 4.37 ERA. Again, remove the horrendous first 3 and for the next 11 starts he was 6-2 with a 3.06 ERA -- not too shabby.
His five spot starts toward the end of the season resulted in a 6.76 ERA.
As a reliever in 17 games, Durbin posted a 4.18 ERA.
Some of Durbin's late season woes might be from fatigue. He pitched 127.2 inning, which isn't a lot, but was his most in the bigs since 2001. He had only 83.2 IP in the majors in 2002-06. It also could be he didn't adjust well to bouncing between the bullpen and rotation.
Another reason for concern is his BABIP last season was .276, which is low, so he might have had some luck on his side or benefited from Comerica and the Tigers' defense.
Nonetheless, the Phils only committed a year and $900,000 in Durbin, which in my mind makes him a worthwhile signing with what's available. You can't dislike a pitcher that posted a 3.06 ERA during an 11-start span, or a 4.18 ERA in long relief. In 2006, he made 28 starts at Triple-A Toledo and was 11-8 with a 3.11 ERA.
He might be best suited for the pen, but gives the Phils another arm to evaluate for the No. 5 spot. And he's only 30.
True grit
Here is an entertaining post about what makes a gritty player. Enjoy the rankings at the end.
Thursday, December 20, 2007
Talking bout Willis
The Tigers have signed Dontrelle Willis to a 3-year, $29-million extension according to the Free Press. This means Detroit's probable Big 3 of Justin Verlander, Jeremy Bonderman and Willis all are locked up through at least 2010.
Signing Willis, now that he's in the fold, was probably a good move and the Tigers probably got to pay less than market value because of Willis' poor 2007 season. The Mariners signed Carlos Silva at about $11 million per year, from what I've seen. Silva, 28, is 55-46 with a 4.31 ERA and has never had a Cy Young-type season like Willis.
Here are reasons to either be concerned Willis might not regain his 2005 form, or to believe he can get straightened out and improve.
First, is his control. In 2005, he walked 2.09/9 IP. In 2006, it was 3.34 and in 2007 it was 3.81. Actually, his 2005 season seems to be the anomaly; he was 3.25 in 2003 and 2.79 in 2004. In 2005, about 65% of his pitches were strikes; in 2007, it was 60%.
Second is batting average against. In 2005, it was .242, which is his best. With the exception of .246 in 2003, the numbers aren't great -- .274 in 2004, .271 in 2006 and .294 last season. The BABIPs aren't anything very unusual, although the .329 last season is a bit high. Still, even if you drop his BAA by 20 points it's right back in that .270-.275 range, which to me just seems high for someone that's supposed to be a dominant lefty. That's Randy Wolf territory -- after surgery. Prior to his arm woes, Wolf held batters to .246, .225, .238 during a 3-year span. Cole Hamels is in the .240 range. Tom Glavine was at .266 and .279 -- after turning 40.
Another thing about 2005, Willis gave up only 11 HR in 236 IP. This ridiculously low. His 4.9 HR/FB was about half of what's normal. His ERA would jump from 2.63 to over 3 if you figured on 11 more HR that year. Last season, Willis gave up 29 HR in 205 IP, which is high.
I'm probably going to eat all these words, but it just seems to me that Willis' 2005 season was the anomoly, not last year. And I'm still not convinced that the Tigers couldn't have done just as well with Andrew Miller or Dallas Trahern .
Signing Willis, now that he's in the fold, was probably a good move and the Tigers probably got to pay less than market value because of Willis' poor 2007 season. The Mariners signed Carlos Silva at about $11 million per year, from what I've seen. Silva, 28, is 55-46 with a 4.31 ERA and has never had a Cy Young-type season like Willis.
Here are reasons to either be concerned Willis might not regain his 2005 form, or to believe he can get straightened out and improve.
First, is his control. In 2005, he walked 2.09/9 IP. In 2006, it was 3.34 and in 2007 it was 3.81. Actually, his 2005 season seems to be the anomaly; he was 3.25 in 2003 and 2.79 in 2004. In 2005, about 65% of his pitches were strikes; in 2007, it was 60%.
Second is batting average against. In 2005, it was .242, which is his best. With the exception of .246 in 2003, the numbers aren't great -- .274 in 2004, .271 in 2006 and .294 last season. The BABIPs aren't anything very unusual, although the .329 last season is a bit high. Still, even if you drop his BAA by 20 points it's right back in that .270-.275 range, which to me just seems high for someone that's supposed to be a dominant lefty. That's Randy Wolf territory -- after surgery. Prior to his arm woes, Wolf held batters to .246, .225, .238 during a 3-year span. Cole Hamels is in the .240 range. Tom Glavine was at .266 and .279 -- after turning 40.
Another thing about 2005, Willis gave up only 11 HR in 236 IP. This ridiculously low. His 4.9 HR/FB was about half of what's normal. His ERA would jump from 2.63 to over 3 if you figured on 11 more HR that year. Last season, Willis gave up 29 HR in 205 IP, which is high.
I'm probably going to eat all these words, but it just seems to me that Willis' 2005 season was the anomoly, not last year. And I'm still not convinced that the Tigers couldn't have done just as well with Andrew Miller or Dallas Trahern .
Friday, December 14, 2007
Newsworthy
Being a baseball blog, we must acknowledge the Mitchell Report and its dramatic findings. But in case you were so involved reading the 409-page tome that you missed other breaking news, here are some highlights:
* Scientists determine sun to be "hot, very hot." (If you don't believe it, this is Sun Fact No. 5 from the NASA Web site: DON’T TOUCH THE SUN! IT’S HOT!)
* Study reveals overeating can cause obesity.
* New Jersey politicians are corrupt.
* Rain is still wet.
Now, back to the shocking discoveries in the Mitchell Report. Umm. Well, hmm, I guess Nook Logan was a surprise.
* Scientists determine sun to be "hot, very hot." (If you don't believe it, this is Sun Fact No. 5 from the NASA Web site: DON’T TOUCH THE SUN! IT’S HOT!)
* Study reveals overeating can cause obesity.
* New Jersey politicians are corrupt.
* Rain is still wet.
Now, back to the shocking discoveries in the Mitchell Report. Umm. Well, hmm, I guess Nook Logan was a surprise.
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Rowand by the bay
Aaron Rowand is reportedly going to get 5 years, $60 million from the Giants, so his days in Philly are officially over, much to the chagrin of a number of Phillies fans. From the early reports, fans in Philly -- as well as Chicago -- are upset their teams didn't sign Rowand.
Congrats to Aaron for parlaying his career year into a windfall. But in my opinion, there's no way the Phils should be criticized for not going 5 years on Rowand. He's 30, but seems older to me. At this point in his career, he compares to Troy O'Leary. (More below.) His defense is good, but not outstanding. His range-zone rating on Hardball Times was 6th among NL centerfielders. He was second to Andruw Jones in out-of-zone plays, but not much ahead of Chris B. Young, Carlos Beltran or Juan Pierre.
His numbers are sure to drop with the move from the Zen to San Fran. His home numbers in 2007 were .319/.380/.557 while his road stats were .299/.368/.475. He hit 17 of his 27 HR in the Zen and I would figure he probably hits around 7 at home in 2008 in San Fran, where he's slugged .393 in 7 career games.
Rowand's stolen base numbers have dropped annually from a high of 17 in 2004 to 6 last season.
If the Phils could have signed Rowand for three years at a higher annual salary, it probably would have been worthwhile. But 5 years is too many.
Now, here's the O'Leary comparison:
AB: O'Leary 2709, Rowand 2664
BA: Rowand .286, O'Leary .283
OBP: Rowand .343, O'Leary .338
SLG: O'Leary .469, Rowand .462
OPS+: Rowand 106, O'Leary 104
Again, I'm not sure what this truly means, but it might provide perspective, I think. Of course, it doesn't take into account the always valuable "clubhouse presence" factor.
Rowand's career 162-game average season is .286-18-66. Shane Victorino figures to take over as the everyday CF in Philly; his career 162-game average season is .274-10-49. He will be 27 and is a much less financial burden.
Congrats to Aaron for parlaying his career year into a windfall. But in my opinion, there's no way the Phils should be criticized for not going 5 years on Rowand. He's 30, but seems older to me. At this point in his career, he compares to Troy O'Leary. (More below.) His defense is good, but not outstanding. His range-zone rating on Hardball Times was 6th among NL centerfielders. He was second to Andruw Jones in out-of-zone plays, but not much ahead of Chris B. Young, Carlos Beltran or Juan Pierre.
His numbers are sure to drop with the move from the Zen to San Fran. His home numbers in 2007 were .319/.380/.557 while his road stats were .299/.368/.475. He hit 17 of his 27 HR in the Zen and I would figure he probably hits around 7 at home in 2008 in San Fran, where he's slugged .393 in 7 career games.
Rowand's stolen base numbers have dropped annually from a high of 17 in 2004 to 6 last season.
If the Phils could have signed Rowand for three years at a higher annual salary, it probably would have been worthwhile. But 5 years is too many.
Now, here's the O'Leary comparison:
AB: O'Leary 2709, Rowand 2664
BA: Rowand .286, O'Leary .283
OBP: Rowand .343, O'Leary .338
SLG: O'Leary .469, Rowand .462
OPS+: Rowand 106, O'Leary 104
Again, I'm not sure what this truly means, but it might provide perspective, I think. Of course, it doesn't take into account the always valuable "clubhouse presence" factor.
Rowand's career 162-game average season is .286-18-66. Shane Victorino figures to take over as the everyday CF in Philly; his career 162-game average season is .274-10-49. He will be 27 and is a much less financial burden.
Tuesday, December 11, 2007
Un-Inge-d
The Free Press reports the Tigers and Pirates are in talks about Brandon Inge. When the Tigers trade him, it will be another sad day, just like when they traded Mike Maroth. It's not because they're necessarily great players (and there's no debating Cabrera has to play 3B ahead of Inge regardless of Inge's otherworldly defense) but because they're great guys who suffered through 119 in 2003 with class.
Someone is going to be very happy to get Inge, even if he is owed $6 million each of the next three years. That's going to seem like a bargain, I think, once he gets straightened out at the plate. One thing about Inge, he's going to be there playing hard every day.
For a while, because of my devotion to Inge, I admit to falling into the "Brosius trap" when thinking about Cabrera. I would laugh when Yankee fans say they would rather have a Scott Brosius -- need a Scott Brosius -- over Alex Rodriguez. I almost did the same thing with Inge-Cabrera, but caught myself.
A-Rod has 2 MVP awards in 4 years with the Yankees. Forget about his postseasons (although they're the most enjoyable part of the year) -- NYY hasn't won a World Series since Brosius left because of its pitching shortcomings, not because of a need for fewer great players and more role players. A-Rod hit more HR this season (54) than Brosius did in 3 seasons with NY (52). Brosius was .261/.328/.422 with NY while A-Rod has been .303/.403/.573 in his 4 years.
Yeah, a Brosius type over A-Rod is just the upgrade the Yankees need.
So I have to say, welcome Miguel. Third base is yours.
Someone is going to be very happy to get Inge, even if he is owed $6 million each of the next three years. That's going to seem like a bargain, I think, once he gets straightened out at the plate. One thing about Inge, he's going to be there playing hard every day.
For a while, because of my devotion to Inge, I admit to falling into the "Brosius trap" when thinking about Cabrera. I would laugh when Yankee fans say they would rather have a Scott Brosius -- need a Scott Brosius -- over Alex Rodriguez. I almost did the same thing with Inge-Cabrera, but caught myself.
A-Rod has 2 MVP awards in 4 years with the Yankees. Forget about his postseasons (although they're the most enjoyable part of the year) -- NYY hasn't won a World Series since Brosius left because of its pitching shortcomings, not because of a need for fewer great players and more role players. A-Rod hit more HR this season (54) than Brosius did in 3 seasons with NY (52). Brosius was .261/.328/.422 with NY while A-Rod has been .303/.403/.573 in his 4 years.
Yeah, a Brosius type over A-Rod is just the upgrade the Yankees need.
So I have to say, welcome Miguel. Third base is yours.
Monday, December 10, 2007
More thoughts on Cabrera-Willis
I still don't believe in Dontrelle Willis. I'm not convinced Andrew Miller won't be as good if not better (or that one of the other three arms the Tigers parted with might, as well). I'm also not convinced the Tigers improved themselves in the ways they need to improve for 2008.
But if I view this deal piece for piece as essentially 1) Miguel Cabrera for Cameron Maybin and Mike Rabelo; and 2) Willis for Andrew Miller and throw ins, then I have to say advantage Tigers.
Starting with the pitching, Miller might end up being the lefty version of Carlos Zambrano, as Baseball Prospectus suggested entering this season, but this is probably a push -- at least for the next year or two. I can live with that, I guess.
From a hitting standpoint, Maybin might be a future superstar, but Cabrera IS a superstar. I have no problem with this aspect of the deal. According to baseball-reference.com, the most similar player to Cabrera historically through the age of 24 is Hank Aaron. I don't know that this means much, but it's fun to look at.
Cabrera and Aaron both had 5 seasons in the books at 24. Aaron had 732 games, Cabrera is at 720. Aaron had 2,895 ABs while Cabrera has 2,694. Here are the numbers:
BA: Aaron .316, Cabrera .313
HR: Aaron 140, Cabrera 138
RBI: Cabrera 523, Aaron 494
R: Aaron 496, Cabrera 449
OBP: Cabrera .388, Aaron .365
SLG: Aaron .543, Cabrera .542
OPS+: Aaron 145, Cabrera 143
Aaron already had an MVP Award by 24. Cabrera has two 5th-place finishes.
I'm pretty sure that no matter how good Maybin is, he won't be Hank Aaron through the age of 24. Other players Cabrera compares to at his age include Ken Griffey Jr., Frank Robinson, Orlando Cepeda, Joe Medwick, Al Kaline, Mickey Mantle, Vlad Guerrero.
But if I view this deal piece for piece as essentially 1) Miguel Cabrera for Cameron Maybin and Mike Rabelo; and 2) Willis for Andrew Miller and throw ins, then I have to say advantage Tigers.
Starting with the pitching, Miller might end up being the lefty version of Carlos Zambrano, as Baseball Prospectus suggested entering this season, but this is probably a push -- at least for the next year or two. I can live with that, I guess.
From a hitting standpoint, Maybin might be a future superstar, but Cabrera IS a superstar. I have no problem with this aspect of the deal. According to baseball-reference.com, the most similar player to Cabrera historically through the age of 24 is Hank Aaron. I don't know that this means much, but it's fun to look at.
Cabrera and Aaron both had 5 seasons in the books at 24. Aaron had 732 games, Cabrera is at 720. Aaron had 2,895 ABs while Cabrera has 2,694. Here are the numbers:
BA: Aaron .316, Cabrera .313
HR: Aaron 140, Cabrera 138
RBI: Cabrera 523, Aaron 494
R: Aaron 496, Cabrera 449
OBP: Cabrera .388, Aaron .365
SLG: Aaron .543, Cabrera .542
OPS+: Aaron 145, Cabrera 143
Aaron already had an MVP Award by 24. Cabrera has two 5th-place finishes.
I'm pretty sure that no matter how good Maybin is, he won't be Hank Aaron through the age of 24. Other players Cabrera compares to at his age include Ken Griffey Jr., Frank Robinson, Orlando Cepeda, Joe Medwick, Al Kaline, Mickey Mantle, Vlad Guerrero.
Sunday, December 09, 2007
Yorman is our man
People are finally coming around to the idea that the Tigers still need pitching to win the World Series. One arm in the bullpen intrigues me. It belongs to Yorman Bazardo. He'll be 24 in July and bounced between the minors and big club in 2007.
In 25.1 IP with the Tigers, made up of 2 starts and 9 relief appearances, Bazardo was 2-1 with a 2.28 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. Those aren't many innings to get a true feel for his ability, but he was a Top 10 prospect for the Mariners before Detroit acquired him last February. Foes batted only .218 against him and he struck out 15 while walking only 5.
From what I've been able to find, he's got a fastball that can reach the high 90s, but he works primarily in the 91-93 range. I saw reference to a hard-breaking curve with good late movement. His slider and changeup are supposedly below average. Still, a fastball and good curve would be enough for success in the bullpen and he's young enough to develop pitches and improve his arsenal. He could be an asset in the middle to late innings.
One reason for concern: the Tigers turned 76% of batted balls against Bazardo into outs -- a high number. It's hard to determine how much of that is a function of the pitching and how much is a function of luck. Bazardo did generate 47% groundballs, which helps his cause.
In 25.1 IP with the Tigers, made up of 2 starts and 9 relief appearances, Bazardo was 2-1 with a 2.28 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. Those aren't many innings to get a true feel for his ability, but he was a Top 10 prospect for the Mariners before Detroit acquired him last February. Foes batted only .218 against him and he struck out 15 while walking only 5.
From what I've been able to find, he's got a fastball that can reach the high 90s, but he works primarily in the 91-93 range. I saw reference to a hard-breaking curve with good late movement. His slider and changeup are supposedly below average. Still, a fastball and good curve would be enough for success in the bullpen and he's young enough to develop pitches and improve his arsenal. He could be an asset in the middle to late innings.
One reason for concern: the Tigers turned 76% of batted balls against Bazardo into outs -- a high number. It's hard to determine how much of that is a function of the pitching and how much is a function of luck. Bazardo did generate 47% groundballs, which helps his cause.
Friday, December 07, 2007
Pitch and moan
Here are offensive numbers for the world champion Boston Red Sox and Tigers from last year:
BA: Detroit .287, Boston .279
Runs: Detroit 887, Boston 867
2B: Detroit 352, Boston 352
3B: Detroit 50, Boston 35
HR: Detroit 177, Boston 166
RBI: Detroit 857, Boston 829
SB: Detroit 103, Boston 96
OBP: Boston .362, Detroit .345
SLG: Detroit .458, Boston .444
Here are pitching numbers for the two:
ERA: Boston 3.87, Detroit 4.58
Hits: Boston 1350, Detroit 1498
BB: Boston 482, Detroit 566
K: Boston 1149, Detroit 1047
WHIP: Boston 1.27, Detroit 1.43
Saves: Boston 45, Detroit 44
BS: Boston 11, Detroit 21
I guess if Willis doesn't rebound, the Tigers' hitting with Cabrera can do more to offset the pitching. It's rather remarkable Detroit won 88 games when you consider the bullpen blew 7 more games in 2007 than in 2006 and Verlander was the only starter who improved on his wins. Verlander was +1, Bonderman was -3, Robertson was -4, and Rogers was -14. That puts the top 4 in the rotation from 2006 at -20. Chad Durbin's +8 helped offset some of that.
BA: Detroit .287, Boston .279
Runs: Detroit 887, Boston 867
2B: Detroit 352, Boston 352
3B: Detroit 50, Boston 35
HR: Detroit 177, Boston 166
RBI: Detroit 857, Boston 829
SB: Detroit 103, Boston 96
OBP: Boston .362, Detroit .345
SLG: Detroit .458, Boston .444
Here are pitching numbers for the two:
ERA: Boston 3.87, Detroit 4.58
Hits: Boston 1350, Detroit 1498
BB: Boston 482, Detroit 566
K: Boston 1149, Detroit 1047
WHIP: Boston 1.27, Detroit 1.43
Saves: Boston 45, Detroit 44
BS: Boston 11, Detroit 21
I guess if Willis doesn't rebound, the Tigers' hitting with Cabrera can do more to offset the pitching. It's rather remarkable Detroit won 88 games when you consider the bullpen blew 7 more games in 2007 than in 2006 and Verlander was the only starter who improved on his wins. Verlander was +1, Bonderman was -3, Robertson was -4, and Rogers was -14. That puts the top 4 in the rotation from 2006 at -20. Chad Durbin's +8 helped offset some of that.
Thinking alike
It seems Rob Parker and I share the same concerns about the Tigers.
Meanwhile, it appears that Brandon Inge's days with Detroit are over. I hate to see Inge leave the Tigers. I would love to see him land in Philly, but the Phils reportedly have no interest because of Inge's contract. But Inge would be a great fit there. The fans would love him for his hustle and defense and homers. He would hit 20-25 homers in the Zen, I think, maybe more.
Of course, he also would hit .250 and strikeout a bunch, but it's not like Phils fans aren't used to that on the left side of the field.
Meanwhile, it appears that Brandon Inge's days with Detroit are over. I hate to see Inge leave the Tigers. I would love to see him land in Philly, but the Phils reportedly have no interest because of Inge's contract. But Inge would be a great fit there. The fans would love him for his hustle and defense and homers. He would hit 20-25 homers in the Zen, I think, maybe more.
Of course, he also would hit .250 and strikeout a bunch, but it's not like Phils fans aren't used to that on the left side of the field.
Tuesday, December 04, 2007
Blockbuster
I'll need time to digest this trade between the Tigers and Marlins. At first blush, I'm not as excited as many people seem to be. Cabrera is a talented hitter, no doubt, who seems to put up .320-30-115 annually. It's hard to be upset with those numbers.
This trade will hinge on a few factors. First, can Willis rebound and regain his form of a couple years ago? It seems Willis' ERA was probably a bit inflated by the Marlins' defense, so Willis should benefit from coming to Detroit. The ballpark should help him, too. One plus, Willis won't have to be the ace in Motown; in fact, he could be the No. 3 starter in the rotation and that might be fine. Perhaps the change of scenery and the fact he no longer has to be the face of an organization helps. Of course, he'll still face scrutiny because of the pitching prospects the Tigers parted with.
Second, the Tigers will need to lock up Cabrera and Willis, both in their mid-20s, for the long term. Third, Detroit will need to make sure Cabrera doesn't eat himself into being Mo Vaughn.
Detroit has now traded away 10 prospects to get Sheffield, Renteria, Cabrera and Willis. There is no question Dombrowski has moved all in. The Tigers must win now.
A few random thoughts: Perhaps the Tigers were falling out of love with Andrew Miller and wanted to trade him while he still had value. Where does Cabrera play? If it's third, what do the Tigers do with Brandon Inge? If it's left field, what does that mean for Marcus Thames and newcomer Jacque Jones? I'm guessing another trade for pitching help, particularly in the bullpen, could be made. This move also might be for insurance in case Sheffield doesn't return to form after shoulder surgery; Cabrera certainly should make up for the loss of offense.
In any event, this trade hinges on Willis in my mind. If he flops, the Tigers gave up six players for Cabrera, and one of those players -- Cameron Maybin -- is being touted as an Eric Davis-type talent. I've always agreed with the philosophy that prospects should be dealt to get proven big league talent, but this price seemed high because of my fears regarding Willis.
What moves are made next could be most important. We might have to see how the rest of the offseason plays out to get a better handle on how this trade truly affects the Tigers.
This trade will hinge on a few factors. First, can Willis rebound and regain his form of a couple years ago? It seems Willis' ERA was probably a bit inflated by the Marlins' defense, so Willis should benefit from coming to Detroit. The ballpark should help him, too. One plus, Willis won't have to be the ace in Motown; in fact, he could be the No. 3 starter in the rotation and that might be fine. Perhaps the change of scenery and the fact he no longer has to be the face of an organization helps. Of course, he'll still face scrutiny because of the pitching prospects the Tigers parted with.
Second, the Tigers will need to lock up Cabrera and Willis, both in their mid-20s, for the long term. Third, Detroit will need to make sure Cabrera doesn't eat himself into being Mo Vaughn.
Detroit has now traded away 10 prospects to get Sheffield, Renteria, Cabrera and Willis. There is no question Dombrowski has moved all in. The Tigers must win now.
A few random thoughts: Perhaps the Tigers were falling out of love with Andrew Miller and wanted to trade him while he still had value. Where does Cabrera play? If it's third, what do the Tigers do with Brandon Inge? If it's left field, what does that mean for Marcus Thames and newcomer Jacque Jones? I'm guessing another trade for pitching help, particularly in the bullpen, could be made. This move also might be for insurance in case Sheffield doesn't return to form after shoulder surgery; Cabrera certainly should make up for the loss of offense.
In any event, this trade hinges on Willis in my mind. If he flops, the Tigers gave up six players for Cabrera, and one of those players -- Cameron Maybin -- is being touted as an Eric Davis-type talent. I've always agreed with the philosophy that prospects should be dealt to get proven big league talent, but this price seemed high because of my fears regarding Willis.
What moves are made next could be most important. We might have to see how the rest of the offseason plays out to get a better handle on how this trade truly affects the Tigers.
Jose ... Jose, Jose, Jose
Jose Guillen, 31, and the KC Royals reportedly reached a 3-year, $36-million deal. According to Hardball Times, Guillen made $4 million in 2007. He batted .290-23-99 in 593 ABs. His line for BA/OBP/SLG was .290/.353/.460.
His numbers for 2007 were practically identical to Eric Byrnes -- minus the speed (and personality, for that matter). Byrnes got a 3-year, $30-million extension from Arizona during the season.
Guillen's .813 OPS matched Byrnes and also that of --- Ryan Church (.272/.349/.464).
Sorry, I just had to toss that in there.
But Guillen's contract is about more than numbers. It's about the leadership and direction he can provide to the young players on the KC roster. You can't put a price on that.
His numbers for 2007 were practically identical to Eric Byrnes -- minus the speed (and personality, for that matter). Byrnes got a 3-year, $30-million extension from Arizona during the season.
Guillen's .813 OPS matched Byrnes and also that of --- Ryan Church (.272/.349/.464).
Sorry, I just had to toss that in there.
But Guillen's contract is about more than numbers. It's about the leadership and direction he can provide to the young players on the KC roster. You can't put a price on that.
Sunday, December 02, 2007
One more roll of the dice
The Tigers re-signed Kenny Rogers and will need a healthy Gambler to take the mound in 2008. Injuries led to a 14-game dropoff for Rogers last season -- certainly one of the main reasons Detroit was on the outside looking in at playoff time.
Given the lack of quality pitching available on the market, the Tigers needed to bring back Rogers, who seemed to have a positive effect on the pitching staff as a whole. Right now, though, Justin Verlander seems to be the only starter from what once appeared to be a deep rotation that can be counted on. Otherwise, Detroit needs to hope for Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson and Rogers all to bounce back from down years -- plus someone (Andrew Miller?) to step up to fill the rotation.
That's a lot of question marks, but at least the talent is there. Reportedly, the Tigers are also looking at Jason Jennings (thumbs up here) and Kris Benson (thumbs down) to aid the staff. Has anyone lived for so long on the word "potential" than Benson? As frustrated as I get with Bonderman, at least he's got two 14-win seasons to his credit already. Benson has never won more than a dozen and only once has posted an ERA under 4.
It's remarkable that Benson and Matt Clement, two pitchers who missed last year because of shoulder surgery, keep popping up on numerous teams' radars. What a mess.
Given the lack of quality pitching available on the market, the Tigers needed to bring back Rogers, who seemed to have a positive effect on the pitching staff as a whole. Right now, though, Justin Verlander seems to be the only starter from what once appeared to be a deep rotation that can be counted on. Otherwise, Detroit needs to hope for Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson and Rogers all to bounce back from down years -- plus someone (Andrew Miller?) to step up to fill the rotation.
That's a lot of question marks, but at least the talent is there. Reportedly, the Tigers are also looking at Jason Jennings (thumbs up here) and Kris Benson (thumbs down) to aid the staff. Has anyone lived for so long on the word "potential" than Benson? As frustrated as I get with Bonderman, at least he's got two 14-win seasons to his credit already. Benson has never won more than a dozen and only once has posted an ERA under 4.
It's remarkable that Benson and Matt Clement, two pitchers who missed last year because of shoulder surgery, keep popping up on numerous teams' radars. What a mess.
Church talk
I can understand Mets fans being disappointed about the Milledge trade, but only from the standpoint that they didn't get a much-needed pitcher in return. But I think they're over-rating Milledge and under-rating Church. I think Church will be a solid player for the Mets and should improve in NY's lineup and ballpark.
Church slugged .506 away from RFK, which according to ESPN's ballpark factor ratings was the most difficult in which to hit homers -- about 33 percent tougher than neutral. Church won't turn 30 until next October and should be in his prime. I could foresee him putting up numbers like .280-20-90 with the Mets next season if he gets 500 AB.
Milledge is much younger and could still develop into a star, but I've never been too high on him. He'll need to mature as a hitter, and given his personality to date, he doesn't seem like the maturing type. I don't think you can put him in the offensive category of Delmon Young, which is what it took to get Matt Garza from the Twins, so the market to pry away pitching is tough.
Church slugged .506 away from RFK, which according to ESPN's ballpark factor ratings was the most difficult in which to hit homers -- about 33 percent tougher than neutral. Church won't turn 30 until next October and should be in his prime. I could foresee him putting up numbers like .280-20-90 with the Mets next season if he gets 500 AB.
Milledge is much younger and could still develop into a star, but I've never been too high on him. He'll need to mature as a hitter, and given his personality to date, he doesn't seem like the maturing type. I don't think you can put him in the offensive category of Delmon Young, which is what it took to get Matt Garza from the Twins, so the market to pry away pitching is tough.
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